Tweet
I posted these a week or so and I know Dead President had a big day. At least there is analysis behind the picks.
Ado's Free Horse Racing Picks
Christopher Ado’s Del Mar Handicap
August 12th, 2006 HorseHats.com picks
Spot Play Selections, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies from Del Mar Saturday August 12, 2006 By Christopher AdoToday’s Action from Del Mar: I will highlight and play races 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9. In addition, I will put together a $48 play in the Pick 4 (Races 7-10).
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Three year olds and upward RUN FOREST RUN (#6, 6-1) was purchased for a staggering $230,000 at last
year’s Ocala Breeders’ Sales for the syndicate racing ownership of Gerson
Racing. The second highest priced yearling from the eighteen by the sire,
Forest Camp, was well meant at the sales as his pedigree strongly suggest he
would be. His dam, Orient Pearl, was produced by the stakes winning dam, A
Status Symbol and third dam, Queen Louie was a two year old filly champion
in Canada and this well bred bay colt was given plenty of time to grow
physically and mature mentally as he did not race as a two year old.
Although National Turf’s Andy Harrington reported he was working in solid
fashion towards his debut, trainer Mike Mitchell prefers to give his
debuting maidens a good experience for educational reasons which explains
why since August 7, 2003 he sent out 58 first time starters and only 4 have
won for a paltry 7% clip. Though he got plenty of action in his debut going
off at 6-1 he was going to need a race and ran like a horse that can only
improve with this race under his belt as he caught an exceptionally strong
highly rated maiden race (95 Beyer Speed Figure). In that debut race, Run
Forest Run did not break alertly leaving the gate and was not asked for
speed under Pat Valenzuela. He rated off the pace while racing in a
uncomfortable position of between rivals, eventually moved over towards the
rail around the far turn and into the stretch, and made no minor gain
through the stretch running evenly through the stretch to split his ten
horse field in a acceptable debut. Since that race forty two days ago, he
has returned with four more works including strong five furlong work in 1:01
flat on July 25 where National Turf’s Andy Harrington reported he “was set
down and urged at the wire, trying hard to the 7 furlong pole in 48 2/5,
1:00 4/5,” and more importantly Mike Mitchell trained second time starters
improved dramatically from their debut effort into their second career
start. In the past five years, 25 of his last 92 second time starters won
for a gaudy 27 percent including Master James (August 9, $8.80) and with
Stock Split (August 11, $13.80) so far this meet. Jockey Martin Garcia has
been aboard for 6 wins from 23 mounts for the Mitchell barn in the past 60
days including Master James and rides this well bred highly regarded bay
colt for the first time. As with the two previous examples already mentioned
and with his history of maidens improving leaps and bounds in their second
start, I expect the same trend to continue with this Forest Camp colt as his
morning line of 6-1 is way too high to began the Saturday afternoon Pick 6
at a hint of a price.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (6) RUN FOREST RUN to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 5-2 or better) Main Exactas: 6-5, 6-7, and 6-9. Small reverse for each.
Race 6: Claiming $40,000 to $35,000, 6-½ Furlongs, Four year olds and upward GREAT ACTION (#7, 10-1) makes his third start into this form cycle and he
won his second of two wins in his third career start to strongly suggest
that he is rounding into a winning effort for the winless Mark Molina barn.
The California bred Suggest gelding was claimed for $40,000 off a better
than looked fifth place finish down the hillside turf course last November
and was immediately reeled back in a spot he cannot be claimed for twelve
days later where he showed excellent early speed to battle for the lead with
three other pace rivals through quick early fractions of 21.77 and 44.77
seconds for the first half mile. He continued battling for the lead
establishing a pressured pace all the way to mid stretch when he finally
weakened from the earlier efforts to finish fourth behind subsequent next
time out winner Irish Ty. Something must have gone amiss soon after the race
as he was sent to the sidelines for the remainder of the year. He missed the
entire Santa Anita winter meeting and did not return to the race until the
second to last week of racing at Hollywood Park on July 8 in a California
bred Allowance N1X where he once again could be claimed with only three
published work outs and figured to need a race badly which resulted in a
sixth and last place finish in his return off a layoff of more than six
months. In that race, he raced in a great spot showing his excellent
tactical speed to sit just behind three horse contested battle for the lead,
continued towards the chase on the far turn, and stopped badly without
behind preserved with in the stretch in a race he clearly needed. He dropped
one level below the price was he claimed when he returned on July 26 here at
Del Mar and ran a much better than looked fourth splitting his field in this
improved troubled effort that is a whole lot better than his “Saved ground
to lane,” comment found in your Daily Racing Form. The early pressing
running style he traditionally shows was lost as he broke slowly from the
disadvantageous rail going six furlongs and did not get any better as he
veered in sharply approaching the gap to lose position and trail early. He
made an impressive sustain run along the inside leaving the backstretch and
around the far turn, split horses into the stretch, and jockey Corey
Nakatini allowed him to finish under his own power to split his field in
this excellent effort in a highly rated $32,000 claiming event (100 Beyer
Speed Figure). What made that effort even more impressive is when you
consider he made that run along the inside versus a pro outside path bias.
He makes a confident one level jump to the level he was claimed off a
defeat, a positive sign, and reunited with the resurgent Jon Court in the
irons. If he breaks cleanly he should be prompting the pace or in close
attendance forwardly placed throughout over a distance that favors early
pressing running styles as 17 of the last 20 races at this distance were won
by horses either on the lead or no more than 1-½ length off the lead at the
second pace call. He should offer a price that will be more than fair to
compensate for the fact his trainer is only 1 for 24 this year.
Wagering Strategies: Play the (7) GREAT ACTION to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better) Main Exactas: 7-3, 7-4, and 7-6. Small reverse for each.
Race 7: Allowance N1X, 6-½ Furlongs, California bred, Three year olds and
upward
MAMSELLE ARIES (#5, 6-1) is bred to be quick and precocious early as she is
a daughter of sprint champion Artax out of the multiple Graded Stakes
winning sprinter, Mamselle Bebette, was trained by Gary Mandella who had
trained only one debut winner in the past year strongly indicating he like
Mike Mitchell before him prefers to gives his debuting maidens a good
experience to build upon for their second start. Despite her trainer’s lack
of success with debuting maidens, she had trained like a promising prospect
according to Andy Harrington and with her excellent breeding she deserved to
be a contender and nothing more in her debut on July 1 and shown plenty of
ability to break her maiden at odds of 35-1 to suggest she could run beyond
her trainer’s expectations of first time starters and ran her work outs and
breeding. In preparation for her debut, Andy Harrington reported she worked
six furlongs in 1:13 4/5 on May 21 with her stable mate and G1 placed Silent
Name breezing inside of him and that prep propelled her to a upset victory.
In that race, she did not break alertly leaving the gate breaking about a
length slow at the start, raced in the three path down the backstretch
racing in a uncomfortable spot between horses early, made a menacing three
wide move around the turn and into the stretch and was able to wear down the
leaders Proud Cecy and Rush to Justice to win by three quarters of a length
to post the $72.20 earning a modest Beyer Speed Figure of 76 which is 12
points below the average winning speed figure for this class level (Beyer
par 88). Despite the modest final time, the race itself was a lot stronger
than that speed figure would suggest when you consider the subsequent
performances of the also ran behind this bay filly. The fourth place
finisher, Lady Gamer, came back to break her maiden on August 4 and the
eighth place finisher, Holy Begonia, came right back to graduate on July 22
both here at Del Mar making it a productive “key” maiden race. Since her
maiden win, she has returned with five more work outs including her last
three over this Del Mar main track that really caught National Turf’s Andy
Harrington’s eye. She worked seven furlongs in 1:27 1/5 on July 28 with a
“ solid finish,” and “some late pressure evident,” in this “Good move.” She
worked six furlongs in 1:16 3/5 on August 3 while completing her final
quarter of a mile in that work out in a sharp 23 4/5 while “still going
well,” and completed her preparation with three furlong blow out in 36 3/5
where she “showed off a stride in the stretch during this leg stretching
three furlong move. Has plenty of upside.” She has plenty of blue sky in
front of her as Gary Mandella’s trainees do improve in their second start
having won 16% of them in the past year. She represents excellent value with
Aaron Gryder returning in the irons in a race where many feel is strictly a
two horse race between the two morning line favorites: Windy and Adance.
Wagering Strategies: Play the (5) MAMSELLE ARIES to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 4-1 or better) Main Exacta Boxes: 5-4 and 5-6.
Race 8: G2 La Jolla Handicap, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three year olds CARIBBEAN (#2, 5-1) was eligible to run in the traditional opening day
feature, Oceanside Stakes, on July 19 but he was scratched on the
recommendation of the stewards and appears in this race three weeks later
making his first start off a seventy-seven day hiatus. Despite the layoff,
he is trained by Neil Drysdale whose five winners this meet have all been on
turf including some coming off a brief hiatus, this Sadler’s Wells gelding
has been overmatched versus the best of Europe’s three year old turf
division this year, and comes into this race in top form off a series of
super work outs according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. He showed
immediately ability in only his second career start breaking his maiden at
the prestigious Curragh meeting as a juvenile versus a field of thirty other
two year olds to win by a nose over a straight away seven furlong lay out on
soft turf. With a victory at this facility the obvious goal for his three
year old season would be the Irish 2000 Guineas and trainer John Oxx mapped
out a two race prep schedule for that event starting in the Group Three
Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trail in his first start as a three year old.
Returning off a long layoff and stepping up in distance for the first time,
Caribbean patiently bided his time early as he stalked the longest shot on
the board, James Joyce, was under a stiff drive to keep up with the pace
quarter mile out and faded to finish fifth and last in a good field that saw
the runner-up, Heliostatic, win a Listed Stakes on June 10 and then win a
Group 3 race on July 29. This last place finish did not discourage his
trainer as he stepped up again in distance to mile and a quarter in the
Group Two Derrinstown Stud Derby Trail and managed to split his eight horse
field under a different running style. He was held back to the rear of the
field to settle in last, began his drive entering the straight away, and
made steady progress through the stretch to finish fourth in what has
returned to be a productive “key” Group Two event. The winner, Dylan Thomas,
returned to finish third beaten only a short head in the prestigious Group
One Epsom Derby on June 3 and came right back to take the Group One Irish
Derby by three and half lengths on July 2 at the Curragh. The third place
finisher, Youmzain, returned two starts later to win a Listed Stakes at
Newmarket. Instead of dropping in class, he was thrown to the wolves again
in the Group One Irish 2000 Guineas where he crossed the wire ninth behind
Araafa who would return to win the Group One St. James Palace Stakes. The
two and half month break between starts should not be a problem as Drysdale
trained Aragon (July 23, $5) to win the G1 Eddie Read in his first start
since May 29 and Becrux (July 29, $6.60) in his first start since third
place finish on May 20 and jockey Corey Nakatini has been aboard for three
of Drysdale’s five winners this meet and he has trained as if he is set to
deliver a winning performance in his U.S. debut according to Andy
Harrington. He has worked three times over Jimmy Durante turf course
including a “Good looking drill” on July 23 that was “missed off the
official tab breezing home with Cut Trail and Unrivaled Song, finishing with
plenty left in the tank at the wire.” He came right back on August 2 to work
a half mile in 49 seconds flat rallying “outside a pair of barn mates, full
of run in 25 2/5, 48 3/5 (23 1/5 last ¼) galloping out clear around the
turn,” showing a “Nice kick.” He concluded his work tab with a super half
mile work in August 9 breezing four furlongs in 47 seconds flat working in
company with Oceanside Stakes victor, Obrigado, work head and head while
under a hold appearing “to have a ton of run.” He should get honest
fractions to set up for his late kick as The Five J’s is entered with ground
saving post position two to ensure good trip. Takes a significant drop in
class and has acted like a top prospect in the mornings and will get a
chance to show it in the afternoon at a hint of a price.
Wagering Strategies: Play the (2) CARIBBEAN to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 3-1 or better) Main Exacta: 2-4. Small reverse Small Exactas: 2-1 and 2-6. No reverse.
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Two year olds EDWARDIAN (#4, 4-1) was not that highly regarded at the sales nor when he
made his debut on opening weekend on July 22 here at Del Mar. The gray colt
by Awesome Again cost $155,000 at the Keeneland 2005 yearling sales which
was below the sire’s average sales price of $188,200. He was not bred nor
was he trained by a trainer that is proficient with first time starters.
Awesome Again has seen only 7% of his progeny win in their first start and
with a sire’s average winning distance (AWD) of 7.4f and dam’s sire AWD of
8.0f, this colt will likely be better once he stretches out two turns and
since August 7, 2003 trainer John Sadler trained only 6 first time starters
to win from 128 starters for a paltry 5% to strongly suggest like Mike
Mitchell and Gary Mandella before him, he prefers to give his first time
starters a good experience to serve as an educational race and this gray got
a good foundation under his belt and more when he finished an excellent
third in his debut on the first Saturday of the meeting and should be able
to take this group gate to wire. In that race where he was sent off at 18-1,
he was pushed out of the gate to duel for the early lead with two other
horses: the eventual winner and post time favorite Principal Secret and
Marked Warrior. Those three horses zipped through a torrid 21.73 second
first quarter and remained as a team through a quick 44.78 second half mile.
Edwardian was force to do all this while pinned inside throughout and he
continued in the battle for the lead to mid stretch as he simply was out run
by the impressive favored winner only to lose second to a horse that rallied
from sixth losing it by a nose as he galloped out very well past the wire in
a strong highly rated affair (84 Beyer Speed Figure). To illustrate the
extent of his early fractions, the opening quarter of that event was tied
for the fastest first quarter from the six sprints on the card to strongly
suggest his early speed will be used to his advantage in his second start as
National Turf’s Andy Harrington witness his five furlong work in 1:01 flat
on August 6 where he reported he was “under a hold in the late stages while
working on the inside of a stable mate 49.0. Gray continues to act smartly
in the a.m.” In addition, his deadly early speed is dangerous when you
consider the track profile for this distance. From the 20 races at this
distance, 10 were won by horses on the lead after the second pace call for a
50% win rate and that is where Edwardian will be as he leads his field mid
way on the far turn and en route to graduating with his diploma as my most
probable winner and BEST BET on Saturday’s card at Del Mar.
Wagering Strategies: Play the (4) EDWARDIAN to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 2-1 or better) Main Exactas: 4-1, 4-2, and 4-5. Small reverse for each.
Del Mar Race 7 Pick 4
Race 7: (4) Windy, (5) Mamselle Aries, and (6) Adance
Race 8: (1) A.P. Warrior, (2) CARIBBEAN, (4) PORTO SANTO, and (6) Get Funky
Race 9: (1) Horse Greeley, (2) Lonely Highway, and (4) EDWARDIAN
Race 10: (1) Camelita, (4) Speacial Heather, (7) Ivy Leage Genius, and (9)Sweetwise
Main Ticket: 4-5-6 / 2-4 / 4 / 1-4-7-9 = 3 x 2 x 1 x 4 x $1 = $24
Ticket A: 4-5-6 / 1-6 / 4 / 1-4-7-9 = 3 x 2 x 1 x 4 x $1 = $24
Ticket B: 4-5-6 / 2-4 / 1-2 / 1-4-7-9 = 3 x 2 x 2 x 4 x $1 = $48
Total Investment: $96
These are my planned Pick 4 plays for today. For those on a budget, please
focused on the $24 main ticket. Tickets A-B are my backup tickets centering
around our main and backups. This structure works best as two things are
accomplished. Firstly, you show your opinion for a horse by separating them
to main and backups. Secondly, you save $48 by following this structure than
if you played a 3 x 4 x 3 x 4 combination which would cost you $144
Ado's Free Horse Racing Picks
Christopher Ado’s Del Mar Handicap
August 12th, 2006 HorseHats.com picks
Spot Play Selections, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies from Del Mar Saturday August 12, 2006 By Christopher AdoToday’s Action from Del Mar: I will highlight and play races 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9. In addition, I will put together a $48 play in the Pick 4 (Races 7-10).
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Three year olds and upward RUN FOREST RUN (#6, 6-1) was purchased for a staggering $230,000 at last
year’s Ocala Breeders’ Sales for the syndicate racing ownership of Gerson
Racing. The second highest priced yearling from the eighteen by the sire,
Forest Camp, was well meant at the sales as his pedigree strongly suggest he
would be. His dam, Orient Pearl, was produced by the stakes winning dam, A
Status Symbol and third dam, Queen Louie was a two year old filly champion
in Canada and this well bred bay colt was given plenty of time to grow
physically and mature mentally as he did not race as a two year old.
Although National Turf’s Andy Harrington reported he was working in solid
fashion towards his debut, trainer Mike Mitchell prefers to give his
debuting maidens a good experience for educational reasons which explains
why since August 7, 2003 he sent out 58 first time starters and only 4 have
won for a paltry 7% clip. Though he got plenty of action in his debut going
off at 6-1 he was going to need a race and ran like a horse that can only
improve with this race under his belt as he caught an exceptionally strong
highly rated maiden race (95 Beyer Speed Figure). In that debut race, Run
Forest Run did not break alertly leaving the gate and was not asked for
speed under Pat Valenzuela. He rated off the pace while racing in a
uncomfortable position of between rivals, eventually moved over towards the
rail around the far turn and into the stretch, and made no minor gain
through the stretch running evenly through the stretch to split his ten
horse field in a acceptable debut. Since that race forty two days ago, he
has returned with four more works including strong five furlong work in 1:01
flat on July 25 where National Turf’s Andy Harrington reported he “was set
down and urged at the wire, trying hard to the 7 furlong pole in 48 2/5,
1:00 4/5,” and more importantly Mike Mitchell trained second time starters
improved dramatically from their debut effort into their second career
start. In the past five years, 25 of his last 92 second time starters won
for a gaudy 27 percent including Master James (August 9, $8.80) and with
Stock Split (August 11, $13.80) so far this meet. Jockey Martin Garcia has
been aboard for 6 wins from 23 mounts for the Mitchell barn in the past 60
days including Master James and rides this well bred highly regarded bay
colt for the first time. As with the two previous examples already mentioned
and with his history of maidens improving leaps and bounds in their second
start, I expect the same trend to continue with this Forest Camp colt as his
morning line of 6-1 is way too high to began the Saturday afternoon Pick 6
at a hint of a price.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (6) RUN FOREST RUN to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 5-2 or better) Main Exactas: 6-5, 6-7, and 6-9. Small reverse for each.
Race 6: Claiming $40,000 to $35,000, 6-½ Furlongs, Four year olds and upward GREAT ACTION (#7, 10-1) makes his third start into this form cycle and he
won his second of two wins in his third career start to strongly suggest
that he is rounding into a winning effort for the winless Mark Molina barn.
The California bred Suggest gelding was claimed for $40,000 off a better
than looked fifth place finish down the hillside turf course last November
and was immediately reeled back in a spot he cannot be claimed for twelve
days later where he showed excellent early speed to battle for the lead with
three other pace rivals through quick early fractions of 21.77 and 44.77
seconds for the first half mile. He continued battling for the lead
establishing a pressured pace all the way to mid stretch when he finally
weakened from the earlier efforts to finish fourth behind subsequent next
time out winner Irish Ty. Something must have gone amiss soon after the race
as he was sent to the sidelines for the remainder of the year. He missed the
entire Santa Anita winter meeting and did not return to the race until the
second to last week of racing at Hollywood Park on July 8 in a California
bred Allowance N1X where he once again could be claimed with only three
published work outs and figured to need a race badly which resulted in a
sixth and last place finish in his return off a layoff of more than six
months. In that race, he raced in a great spot showing his excellent
tactical speed to sit just behind three horse contested battle for the lead,
continued towards the chase on the far turn, and stopped badly without
behind preserved with in the stretch in a race he clearly needed. He dropped
one level below the price was he claimed when he returned on July 26 here at
Del Mar and ran a much better than looked fourth splitting his field in this
improved troubled effort that is a whole lot better than his “Saved ground
to lane,” comment found in your Daily Racing Form. The early pressing
running style he traditionally shows was lost as he broke slowly from the
disadvantageous rail going six furlongs and did not get any better as he
veered in sharply approaching the gap to lose position and trail early. He
made an impressive sustain run along the inside leaving the backstretch and
around the far turn, split horses into the stretch, and jockey Corey
Nakatini allowed him to finish under his own power to split his field in
this excellent effort in a highly rated $32,000 claiming event (100 Beyer
Speed Figure). What made that effort even more impressive is when you
consider he made that run along the inside versus a pro outside path bias.
He makes a confident one level jump to the level he was claimed off a
defeat, a positive sign, and reunited with the resurgent Jon Court in the
irons. If he breaks cleanly he should be prompting the pace or in close
attendance forwardly placed throughout over a distance that favors early
pressing running styles as 17 of the last 20 races at this distance were won
by horses either on the lead or no more than 1-½ length off the lead at the
second pace call. He should offer a price that will be more than fair to
compensate for the fact his trainer is only 1 for 24 this year.
Wagering Strategies: Play the (7) GREAT ACTION to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better) Main Exactas: 7-3, 7-4, and 7-6. Small reverse for each.
Race 7: Allowance N1X, 6-½ Furlongs, California bred, Three year olds and
upward
MAMSELLE ARIES (#5, 6-1) is bred to be quick and precocious early as she is
a daughter of sprint champion Artax out of the multiple Graded Stakes
winning sprinter, Mamselle Bebette, was trained by Gary Mandella who had
trained only one debut winner in the past year strongly indicating he like
Mike Mitchell before him prefers to gives his debuting maidens a good
experience to build upon for their second start. Despite her trainer’s lack
of success with debuting maidens, she had trained like a promising prospect
according to Andy Harrington and with her excellent breeding she deserved to
be a contender and nothing more in her debut on July 1 and shown plenty of
ability to break her maiden at odds of 35-1 to suggest she could run beyond
her trainer’s expectations of first time starters and ran her work outs and
breeding. In preparation for her debut, Andy Harrington reported she worked
six furlongs in 1:13 4/5 on May 21 with her stable mate and G1 placed Silent
Name breezing inside of him and that prep propelled her to a upset victory.
In that race, she did not break alertly leaving the gate breaking about a
length slow at the start, raced in the three path down the backstretch
racing in a uncomfortable spot between horses early, made a menacing three
wide move around the turn and into the stretch and was able to wear down the
leaders Proud Cecy and Rush to Justice to win by three quarters of a length
to post the $72.20 earning a modest Beyer Speed Figure of 76 which is 12
points below the average winning speed figure for this class level (Beyer
par 88). Despite the modest final time, the race itself was a lot stronger
than that speed figure would suggest when you consider the subsequent
performances of the also ran behind this bay filly. The fourth place
finisher, Lady Gamer, came back to break her maiden on August 4 and the
eighth place finisher, Holy Begonia, came right back to graduate on July 22
both here at Del Mar making it a productive “key” maiden race. Since her
maiden win, she has returned with five more work outs including her last
three over this Del Mar main track that really caught National Turf’s Andy
Harrington’s eye. She worked seven furlongs in 1:27 1/5 on July 28 with a
“ solid finish,” and “some late pressure evident,” in this “Good move.” She
worked six furlongs in 1:16 3/5 on August 3 while completing her final
quarter of a mile in that work out in a sharp 23 4/5 while “still going
well,” and completed her preparation with three furlong blow out in 36 3/5
where she “showed off a stride in the stretch during this leg stretching
three furlong move. Has plenty of upside.” She has plenty of blue sky in
front of her as Gary Mandella’s trainees do improve in their second start
having won 16% of them in the past year. She represents excellent value with
Aaron Gryder returning in the irons in a race where many feel is strictly a
two horse race between the two morning line favorites: Windy and Adance.
Wagering Strategies: Play the (5) MAMSELLE ARIES to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 4-1 or better) Main Exacta Boxes: 5-4 and 5-6.
Race 8: G2 La Jolla Handicap, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three year olds CARIBBEAN (#2, 5-1) was eligible to run in the traditional opening day
feature, Oceanside Stakes, on July 19 but he was scratched on the
recommendation of the stewards and appears in this race three weeks later
making his first start off a seventy-seven day hiatus. Despite the layoff,
he is trained by Neil Drysdale whose five winners this meet have all been on
turf including some coming off a brief hiatus, this Sadler’s Wells gelding
has been overmatched versus the best of Europe’s three year old turf
division this year, and comes into this race in top form off a series of
super work outs according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. He showed
immediately ability in only his second career start breaking his maiden at
the prestigious Curragh meeting as a juvenile versus a field of thirty other
two year olds to win by a nose over a straight away seven furlong lay out on
soft turf. With a victory at this facility the obvious goal for his three
year old season would be the Irish 2000 Guineas and trainer John Oxx mapped
out a two race prep schedule for that event starting in the Group Three
Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trail in his first start as a three year old.
Returning off a long layoff and stepping up in distance for the first time,
Caribbean patiently bided his time early as he stalked the longest shot on
the board, James Joyce, was under a stiff drive to keep up with the pace
quarter mile out and faded to finish fifth and last in a good field that saw
the runner-up, Heliostatic, win a Listed Stakes on June 10 and then win a
Group 3 race on July 29. This last place finish did not discourage his
trainer as he stepped up again in distance to mile and a quarter in the
Group Two Derrinstown Stud Derby Trail and managed to split his eight horse
field under a different running style. He was held back to the rear of the
field to settle in last, began his drive entering the straight away, and
made steady progress through the stretch to finish fourth in what has
returned to be a productive “key” Group Two event. The winner, Dylan Thomas,
returned to finish third beaten only a short head in the prestigious Group
One Epsom Derby on June 3 and came right back to take the Group One Irish
Derby by three and half lengths on July 2 at the Curragh. The third place
finisher, Youmzain, returned two starts later to win a Listed Stakes at
Newmarket. Instead of dropping in class, he was thrown to the wolves again
in the Group One Irish 2000 Guineas where he crossed the wire ninth behind
Araafa who would return to win the Group One St. James Palace Stakes. The
two and half month break between starts should not be a problem as Drysdale
trained Aragon (July 23, $5) to win the G1 Eddie Read in his first start
since May 29 and Becrux (July 29, $6.60) in his first start since third
place finish on May 20 and jockey Corey Nakatini has been aboard for three
of Drysdale’s five winners this meet and he has trained as if he is set to
deliver a winning performance in his U.S. debut according to Andy
Harrington. He has worked three times over Jimmy Durante turf course
including a “Good looking drill” on July 23 that was “missed off the
official tab breezing home with Cut Trail and Unrivaled Song, finishing with
plenty left in the tank at the wire.” He came right back on August 2 to work
a half mile in 49 seconds flat rallying “outside a pair of barn mates, full
of run in 25 2/5, 48 3/5 (23 1/5 last ¼) galloping out clear around the
turn,” showing a “Nice kick.” He concluded his work tab with a super half
mile work in August 9 breezing four furlongs in 47 seconds flat working in
company with Oceanside Stakes victor, Obrigado, work head and head while
under a hold appearing “to have a ton of run.” He should get honest
fractions to set up for his late kick as The Five J’s is entered with ground
saving post position two to ensure good trip. Takes a significant drop in
class and has acted like a top prospect in the mornings and will get a
chance to show it in the afternoon at a hint of a price.
Wagering Strategies: Play the (2) CARIBBEAN to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 3-1 or better) Main Exacta: 2-4. Small reverse Small Exactas: 2-1 and 2-6. No reverse.
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Two year olds EDWARDIAN (#4, 4-1) was not that highly regarded at the sales nor when he
made his debut on opening weekend on July 22 here at Del Mar. The gray colt
by Awesome Again cost $155,000 at the Keeneland 2005 yearling sales which
was below the sire’s average sales price of $188,200. He was not bred nor
was he trained by a trainer that is proficient with first time starters.
Awesome Again has seen only 7% of his progeny win in their first start and
with a sire’s average winning distance (AWD) of 7.4f and dam’s sire AWD of
8.0f, this colt will likely be better once he stretches out two turns and
since August 7, 2003 trainer John Sadler trained only 6 first time starters
to win from 128 starters for a paltry 5% to strongly suggest like Mike
Mitchell and Gary Mandella before him, he prefers to give his first time
starters a good experience to serve as an educational race and this gray got
a good foundation under his belt and more when he finished an excellent
third in his debut on the first Saturday of the meeting and should be able
to take this group gate to wire. In that race where he was sent off at 18-1,
he was pushed out of the gate to duel for the early lead with two other
horses: the eventual winner and post time favorite Principal Secret and
Marked Warrior. Those three horses zipped through a torrid 21.73 second
first quarter and remained as a team through a quick 44.78 second half mile.
Edwardian was force to do all this while pinned inside throughout and he
continued in the battle for the lead to mid stretch as he simply was out run
by the impressive favored winner only to lose second to a horse that rallied
from sixth losing it by a nose as he galloped out very well past the wire in
a strong highly rated affair (84 Beyer Speed Figure). To illustrate the
extent of his early fractions, the opening quarter of that event was tied
for the fastest first quarter from the six sprints on the card to strongly
suggest his early speed will be used to his advantage in his second start as
National Turf’s Andy Harrington witness his five furlong work in 1:01 flat
on August 6 where he reported he was “under a hold in the late stages while
working on the inside of a stable mate 49.0. Gray continues to act smartly
in the a.m.” In addition, his deadly early speed is dangerous when you
consider the track profile for this distance. From the 20 races at this
distance, 10 were won by horses on the lead after the second pace call for a
50% win rate and that is where Edwardian will be as he leads his field mid
way on the far turn and en route to graduating with his diploma as my most
probable winner and BEST BET on Saturday’s card at Del Mar.
Wagering Strategies: Play the (4) EDWARDIAN to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 2-1 or better) Main Exactas: 4-1, 4-2, and 4-5. Small reverse for each.
Del Mar Race 7 Pick 4
Race 7: (4) Windy, (5) Mamselle Aries, and (6) Adance
Race 8: (1) A.P. Warrior, (2) CARIBBEAN, (4) PORTO SANTO, and (6) Get Funky
Race 9: (1) Horse Greeley, (2) Lonely Highway, and (4) EDWARDIAN
Race 10: (1) Camelita, (4) Speacial Heather, (7) Ivy Leage Genius, and (9)Sweetwise
Main Ticket: 4-5-6 / 2-4 / 4 / 1-4-7-9 = 3 x 2 x 1 x 4 x $1 = $24
Ticket A: 4-5-6 / 1-6 / 4 / 1-4-7-9 = 3 x 2 x 1 x 4 x $1 = $24
Ticket B: 4-5-6 / 2-4 / 1-2 / 1-4-7-9 = 3 x 2 x 2 x 4 x $1 = $48
Total Investment: $96
These are my planned Pick 4 plays for today. For those on a budget, please
focused on the $24 main ticket. Tickets A-B are my backup tickets centering
around our main and backups. This structure works best as two things are
accomplished. Firstly, you show your opinion for a horse by separating them
to main and backups. Secondly, you save $48 by following this structure than
if you played a 3 x 4 x 3 x 4 combination which would cost you $144
Comment