Announcement

**Udog** · 04-01-2021, 07:41 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds for the Texas Open this week:
11-1— Jordan Spieth
14-1— Tony Finau
15-1— Scott Scheffler
19-1— Abraham Ancer, Hideki Matsuyama
21-1— Corey Connors
30-1— Ryan Palmer

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 550,903
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

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Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Random thoughts on Opening Day

Before we start, happy birthday to my grandmother; today was her birthday. Very nice lady. Not sure April 1 is a great day for a birthday.

13) Will be fun to see fans in the stands; hopefully by the end of this season, stands will be full again, but for now, hearing real people cheer will be enough. Cardboard cutouts are cool, but they don’t make any noise.

For the record, the best cardboard cutout last year was the one in Kansas City of Bernie Lomax, the main character from the Weekend at Bernie’s movies.

12) Houston Astros made the expanded playoffs LY, despite a 29-31 record; how will they bounce back this year? They won the 2017 World Series, lost the ’19 Series in seven games; this year they’ll be without Verlander (hurt), Springer (free agent to Toronto).

Last year, Jose Altuve hit .219 in the regular season, then hit 18-48 (.375) in playoffs, so we’ll see what this year brings.

11) Baseball has done a very smart thing, letting players watch video of their at-bats on iPads during the game. Players couldn’t do that last year- from what you hear on TV, it hampered some hitters, who are creatures of habit. Baseball wants more offense, right?

10) Los Angeles Dodgers are loaded; they won World Series LY for first time since 1988, and appear to be headed that way again this year, especially after adding pitching ace Trevor Bauer as a free agent.

Their TV guys have been fairly cocky this spring; on how many teams would David Price or Tony Gonsolin not be in the starting rotation?

9) Seattle and the Angels are two teams that will apparently use 6-man pitching rotations this season, somehow new to MLB. Teams in Japan do this; starters generally pitch once a week.

Teams are guarding against ramping up a pitcher’s innings too much from one year to the next; for instance, Seattle’s Marco Gonzales threw 69.1 IP LY; he threw 203 the year before. Doubtful they want him ramping back up to 203 until next season.

8) Steve Cohen is the new owner of the Mets; supposedly, Bobby Axelrod on Showtime’s Billions was modeled after Cohen, a wildly successful hedge fund trader. In other words, he is really, really rich.

Cohen’s Mets offered newly-acquired SS Francisco Lindor $320M for 10 years; Lindor’s people are asking for 12 years, $385M. We’ll see how that works out.

LATE UPDATE: Here’s how it worked out: Lindor signed a 10-year deal for $341M Wednesday night.

7) Umpire Ángel Hernández lost his lawsuit against MLB alleging racial discrimination; hired as a big league umpire in 1993, the Cuban-born Hernandez alleged he was discriminated against because he had not been assigned to the World Series since 2005 and had been passed over for crew chief.

From the judge who decided the case:
“The explicit reason MLB offers — that according to (Joe) Torre, Hernández ‘has not demonstrated the leadership ability and situation-management skills in critical high-pressure roles on a consistent basis’ — is presented in clear and specific terms.”

In other words, Hernandez should be glad he has a lucrative job that he doesn’t do very well.

6) Colorado Rockies traded star 3B Nolan Arenado to St Louis, and with SS Trevor Story headed for free agency, he could be the next to leave Denver, which can’t make fans in Denver happy.

Are the Rockies headed for a total rebuild? Colorado won 87-91 games in 2017/’18, but now they’re looking like a doormat.

5) Can Giancarlo Stanton/Aaron Judge stay healthy this season?
— Last two years, Stanton played a total of 41 regular season games.
— Last three years, Judge played 112-102-28 games.
— Stanton went 8-26 with six homers in seven playoff games LY; they need him for six months, not seven games.

4) Angels have lot of hitting, lot of star power; Trout, Pujols, Rendon, Ohtani, but pitching is important in baseball and the Angels don’t have much of that.

In 12 games as a major league pitcher, Ohtani has given up 26 runs in 53.1 IP; there is very little evidence that he’ll be a good major league pitcher.

3) Lot of hype around the Padres/White Sox; there is no doubt that 76-year Tony LaRussa’s return to the dugout will be fascinating to follow in Chicago.

LaRussa hasn’t managed since 2011; he’s won three World Series as a skipper, but the world is a different place than it was 10 years ago. He did a dugout interview during a spring training game a few days ago and it…….um…….didn’t go well.

Random LaRussa trivia; he pinch-hit for the A’s in their first-ever home game in Oakland, way back in 1968.

2) Baseball needs the universal DH, for a few reasons:
— They want more scoring; pitchers can’t hit
— They want more balls in play; DH’s put balls in play
— Pitchers get hurt hitting/running the bases. Not good.

1) I’ll be looking at how the new experimental rules work once the minor leagues get rolling in May; I like the anti-shifting rules, the pitch-clock thing isn’t necessary. The 3-batter minimum for relievers is a great rule.

I can’t stand the extra inning rules or 7-inning doubleheaders. Media guys like shorter extra innings, since it makes their job easier, but to me it cheapens the game.

As for the automated strike zone, no thank you!!! Just let umpires do their jobs, and hire better umpires than Angel Hernandez.

**Udog** · 04-01-2021, 07:44 AM

41DETROIT -42 FLORIDA
DETROIT is 4-38 ATS (-37.8 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more in the last 3 seasons.

43WASHINGTON -44 NY ISLANDERS
WASHINGTON is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread in the current season.

45NY RANGERS -46 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 1-18 ATS (-17.2 Units) against excellent power play teams- scoring on >17.5% of their chances in the current season.

47COLUMBUS -48 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 12-0 ATS (12 Units) in home games after playing a game where 4 or fewer total goals were scored over the last 2 seasons.

49PITTSBURGH -50 BOSTON
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss where team scored 1 or less goals over the last 2 seasons.

51MONTREAL -52 OTTAWA
MONTREAL is 10-15 ATS (-12.2 Units) against mistake free teams - opponents average <=4 power plays/game in the current season.

53CAROLINA -54 CHICAGO
CAROLINA is 15-6 ATS (8.1 Units) against excellent power play teams- scoring on >17.5% of their chances in the current season.

55DALLAS -56 NASHVILLE
DALLAS are 3-18 ATS (-18.7 Units) against good offensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp in the current season.

57MINNESOTA -58 VEGAS
VEGAS are 19-7 ATS (12.1 Units) against mistake free teams - opponents average <=4 power plays/game in the current season.

**Udog** · 04-01-2021, 07:47 AM

NHL

Thursday, April 1

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Trend Report
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Pittsburgh @ Boston
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Boston
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Boston
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

NY Rangers @ Buffalo
NY Rangers
NY Rangers is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Rangers's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Rangers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing NY Rangers

Detroit @ Florida
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games
Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Florida's last 8 games when playing Detroit
Florida is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Washington @ NY Islanders
Washington
Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders
Washington is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
NY Islanders is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

Columbus @ Tampa Bay
Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Columbus's last 5 games on the road
Columbus is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Columbus

Montreal @ Ottawa
Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Montreal's last 9 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
Ottawa
Ottawa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 5 games

Carolina @ Chicago
Carolina
Carolina is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Chicago
Carolina is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games at home

Dallas @ Nashville
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Dallas's last 11 games when playing on the road against Nashville
Nashville
Nashville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Nashville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Minnesota @ Vegas
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Minnesota's last 11 games on the road
Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Vegas
Vegas
Vegas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Vegas is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games

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**Udog** · 04-01-2021, 11:52 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Thursday, April 1

Announcement

Thursday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 4/1

Thursday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 4/1

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