Announcement

**Udog** · 02-25-2021, 06:04 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Six of the Baltimore Orioles’ best prospects:
1) Adley Rutschman, C
2) Grayson Rodriguez, P
4) Heston Kjerstad, OF
5) Ryan Mountcastle, OF
7) Yusniel Diaz, OF
9) Dean Kremer, P

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 506,030
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

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Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….

Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) Since the AFL/NFL merger 50+ years ago, only one NFL quarterback who has started 50+ games hasn’t thrown at least one pick-6. The answer is surprising; I’ll post it down below.

12) May 17, 1979; Phillies beat the Cubs 23-22 in ten innings, with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field. One of the craziest ballgames ever:

— Neither starting pitcher finished the first inning.
— Cubs’ #3-4 hitters went a combined 7-13, with seven runs scored, 13 RBI and Chicago still lost.
— Cubs’ #3 hitter was Bill Buckner, who was a very good big league hitter.
— For some reason, Larry Bowa hit 2nd, Pete Rose 3rd for the Phillies. Bowa was a good fielder but a less-than-average hitter. Bake McBride batted leadoff for Philly.

—Tug McGraw gave up 7 runs (4 earned) in 0.2 innings; you may have heard of his son, Tim McGraw, the great singer. Tug McGraw saved 180 games in his 19-year MLB career.
— Rawly Eastwick got the win in relief, throwing two perfect innings in a 23-22 game.
— Six different players knocked in 4+ runs.
— Bob Boone (Aaron Boone’s father) was the Phillies’ catcher.
— The game took 4:03 to play; 14,952 fans watched it.

11) Jazz 114, Lakers 89:
— Jazz have played 32 games; they’re had a 20+ point lead in 20 of them.
— In its last 23 games, Utah is 20-2-1 against the spread.

10) NBA will host two 4-team play-in tournaments May 18-21, to determine the last four playoff teams this season, two in each conference:
— #7-seed hosts the #8-seed; winner is in.
— #10-seed visits the #9-seed; loser is out.
— Loser of the 7-8 game hosts the 9-10 winner; winner of that game gets in playoffs.

9) Arkansas 81, Alabama 66:
— Free throws: Arkansas 27-43, Alabama 3-8. Seems fair.
— One kid on Arkansas was 16-19 on the line; Alabama’s whole team was 3-8.
— Arkansas has won five in row, 8 of last 9 games.
— Alabama is 4-3 in its last seven games, after a 14-3 start.

8) Rutgers 74, Indiana 63— The pundits on the Big 14 Network preach endlessly about how great their league is; I’m a skeptic. FS1’s Doug Gottlieb was saying how fewer kids from the Big 14 jump early to the NBA, so they have an advantage early in the season, their teams have more continuity, an advantage that erodes as the season goes on.

7) ESPN missed the boat when they let Gottlieb walk; he is a way better analyst than Jay Bilas, who somehow is ESPN’s #1 analyst. Bilas played for Duke, which seems to mean a lot at ESPN.

Gottlieb speaks his mind, has some humor and doesn’t bitch about the refs every 90 seconds, the way Bilas does. Always learn stuff listening to Gottlieb.

6) NC State 68, Virginia 61:
— Virginia lost three in row, after a 15-3 start.
— Wolfpack won three in row, after an 8-9 start.
— NC State played seven guys the whole game. Not many teams have depth these days.

5) Wednesday night’s biggest upsets:
— Western Carolina (+14) 81, NC-Greensboro 80
— NC State (+12) 68, Virginia 61
— Marquette (+8.5) 83, North Carolina 70
— St Joe’s (+8) 97, Dayton 84
— Butler (+7.5) 61, Seton Hall 52
— Fresno State (+7) 67, UNLV 64

4) SNY in New York City does it right; they replay a classic Mets’ game every weekday at 3pm. Watching ballgames is the fun thing to do, listening to Cohen-Darling-Hernandez is a fine way to spend a winter afternoon, at least until exhibition games start this weekend.

3) Blue Jays’ 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr has lost 42 pounds since last season; he turns 22 next month, has hit .269 in his first 183 big league games, over two seasons. Curious to see if being so much lighter will make him a better hitter.

2) I’m amazed that people bet on the NFL Draft; you can wager on how many QB’s will get taken in the first round, what pick in the first round will the last QB be taken, basically anything you can think of.

Over the last 50 years, Mitch Trubisky is the only NFL quarterback with 50+ starts who hasn’t thrown at least one pick-6.

1) Conference tournaments start tonight; the Horizon League has four first-round games.

**Udog** · 02-25-2021, 06:07 AM

1CHICAGO -2 COLUMBUS
CHICAGO is 13-7 ATS (8.7 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons.

3DALLAS -4 FLORIDA
DALLAS are 0-7 ATS (-8.2 Units) against good offensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp in the current season.

5CAROLINA -6 TAMPA BAY
CAROLINA is 11-27 ATS (-18.2 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game in the last 3 seasons.

7PITTSBURGH -8 WASHINGTON
PITTSBURGH is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

9CALGARY -10 OTTAWA
OTTAWA is 3-21 ATS (-20.1 Units) after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.

11BOSTON -12 NY ISLANDERS
NY ISLANDERS are 40-30 ATS (9.6 Units) against good offensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp over the last 2 seasons.

13NASHVILLE -14 DETROIT
DETROIT is 9-38 ATS (-24 Units) against terrible defensive teams - allowing 3+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons.

15MONTREAL -16 WINNIPEG
MONTREAL is 31-41 ATS (-20.2 Units) against poor power play killing teams - opp score on >17.5% of chances over the last 2 seasons.

19EDMONTON -20 VANCOUVER
VANCOUVER is 26-14 ATS (10.6 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games in the last 3 seasons.

69NEW JERSEY -70 BUFFALO
NEW JERSEY is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

**Udog** · 02-25-2021, 06:11 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Thursday, February 25

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CHICAGO (10-6-0-4, 24 pts.) at COLUMBUS (8-7-0-5, 21 pts.) - 2/25/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 393-391 ATS (-143.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
COLUMBUS is 5-0 ATS (+5.0 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent this season.
CHICAGO is 5-0 ATS (+5.0 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 this season.
CHICAGO is 19-13 ATS (+35.0 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 6-3 (+3.5 Units) against the spread versus COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 6-3-0 straight up against COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.8 Units)

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DALLAS (5-4-0-4, 14 pts.) at FLORIDA (12-3-0-2, 26 pts.) - 2/25/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 247-266 ATS (+568.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 2-2 (+0.0 Units) against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 2-2-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.0 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)

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CAROLINA (12-4-0-1, 25 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (11-4-0-1, 23 pts.) - 2/25/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 134-63 ATS (+65.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 57-17 ATS (+19.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 11-17 ATS (-14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 5-4-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.1 Units)

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PITTSBURGH (10-6-0-1, 21 pts.) at WASHINGTON (9-5-0-4, 22 pts.) - 2/25/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 10-22 ATS (-16.5 Units) in road games after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 21-28 ATS (-25.7 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 8-4 (+3.8 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 8-4-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.6 Units)

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CALGARY (9-9-0-1, 19 pts.) at OTTAWA (6-14-0-1, 13 pts.) - 2/25/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 132-126 ATS (-21.6 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
OTTAWA is 176-163 ATS (-42.2 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 3-1 (+1.4 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 3-1-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.0 Units)

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BOSTON (11-3-0-2, 24 pts.) at NY ISLANDERS (9-6-0-3, 21 pts.) - 2/25/2021, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 5-3 (+0.4 Units) against the spread versus NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 5-3-0 straight up against NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+5.1 Units)

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NASHVILLE (8-10-0-0, 16 pts.) at DETROIT (5-13-0-3, 13 pts.) - 2/25/2021, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 44-47 ATS (-24.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 3-9 ATS (-9.4 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 44-40 ATS (-25.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 22-25 ATS (-21.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 22-70 ATS (-100.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 331-324 ATS (-305.2 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
DETROIT is 8-35 ATS (+68.9 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 15-51 ATS (+112.3 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 16-58 ATS (+118.7 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 470-392 ATS (-118.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
DETROIT is 6-21 ATS (+36.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-3 (+4.3 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-3-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.8 Units)

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MONTREAL (9-5-0-4, 22 pts.) at WINNIPEG (11-6-0-1, 23 pts.) - 2/25/2021, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 17-24 ATS (-10.7 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 4-12 ATS (-10.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 3-1 (+1.9 Units) against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 3-1-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.0 Units)

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EDMONTON (13-8-0-0, 26 pts.) at VANCOUVER (8-13-0-2, 18 pts.) - 2/25/2021, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 26-14 ATS (+42.9 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 152-155 ATS (-74.7 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 6-5-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.4 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)

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NEW JERSEY (6-6-0-2, 14 pts.) at BUFFALO (6-8-0-2, 14 pts.) - 2/25/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 9-2 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 117-110 ATS (+241.5 Units) in road games after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.
NEW JERSEY is 17-14 ATS (+38.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 6-3 (+3.0 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 6-3-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.7 Units)

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VEGAS (11-4-0-1, 23 pts.) at SAN JOSE (7-8-0-2, 16 pts.) - 2/25/2021, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VEGAS is 3-9 ATS (-11.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 1-6 ATS (-7.0 Units) in road games after shutting out their opponent in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 180-148 ATS (-69.8 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1996.
SAN JOSE is 198-170 ATS (-91.4 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 9-7 (+0.5 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
VEGAS is 9-7-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-1.2 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)

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**Udog** · 02-25-2021, 08:57 AM

NHL

Thursday, February 25

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Trend Report
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Chicago @ Columbus
Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Columbus's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Columbus's last 7 games at home

Dallas @ Florida
Dallas
Dallas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Dallas's last 14 games when playing on the road against Florida
Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Florida's last 14 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 7 games at home

Boston @ NY Islanders
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boston's last 8 games when playing NY Islanders
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Islanders
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Islanders's last 8 games when playing Boston
NY Islanders is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Carolina @ Tampa Bay
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Carolina
Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

Pittsburgh @ Washington
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh

Calgary @ Ottawa
Calgary
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing Ottawa
Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 6 games at home
Ottawa is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

New Jersey @ Buffalo
New Jersey
New Jersey is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against New Jersey
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games

Nashville @ Detroit
Nashville
Nashville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nashville's last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games at home
Detroit is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Nashville

Montreal @ Winnipeg
Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Montreal is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing at home against Montreal

Edmonton @ Vancouver
Edmonton
Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Edmonton is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Vancouver
Vancouver is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Edmonton
Vancouver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Edmonton

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**Udog** · 02-25-2021, 10:18 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Thursday, February 25

Announcement

Thursday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 2/25

Thursday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 2/25

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