Announcement

**Udog** · 02-15-2021, 09:39 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six of the college teams that play the best FG% defense:
42.1%— opponents’ eFG%- Houston
43.1— Michigan
43.6— USC
44.1— Memphis
45.1— Alabama
45.5— Texas

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 485,235
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

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Armadillo: Monday's Den: Going thru college basketball conferences

Selection Sunday is less than four weeks away; no one even knows yet how Championship Week is going to play out; will every conference have a tournament this year, or just a lot of makeup games, so the better teams can jack up their power ratings?

Here is what I think/know about how teams look heading into the season’s stretch run:

AAC— Houston is 17-2, the AAC’s only sure bet to be in the field of 68; Cougars beat Texas Tech on a neutral floor in November, will be a popular sleeper pick in people’s brackets.

Cincinnati is 4-0 since their 25-day COVID pause; the four wins were by a total of nine points. Memphis, SMU still have a shot to play their way into at-large bids.

ACC— When ESPN’s announcers openly talk about the ACC being down this year, you KNOW the league is down. kenpom.com has ACC as the #4 league, tied for its lowest ranking since 2013. Right now, Virginia/Florida State look like the only sure things for the NCAA’s.

ACC will wind up with 2-3 other teams in the field, but it’ll be dependent on who wins lot of games from now on. Louisville is on a pause; Virginia Tech and UNC should get in if the wheels don’t fall off for them. Duke is 8-8, 6-6 in league; they’re a bubble team.

A-14— Some teams in this league have been hit hard by the pandemic; Davidson hasn’t played in three weeks, Saint Louis went 34 days between games, Fordham didn’t play a game until December 30, then fired its coach.

Their conference tournament will be one of the better ones; the winner might be the only A-14 team in the field of 68.

Big East— Villanova/Creighton are in, Seton Hall is mostly in. Rest of the league better get hot, or they’ll be in the NIT. KenPom has the Big East at #5, as low as they’ve been since 2002.

UConn lost lost four of its last six games; Xavier just had a 2-week pause. Under Patrick Ewing., Georgetown is 23-42 in regular season conference games; how does he get to fix things?

Big 14— One of the most interesting parts of Selection Sunday will be how many teams from this league get in the field of 68. Pundits on the Big 14 Network would have you believe that every team in the league is tournament-worthy, but we know thats not true. Why should a team that finishes 9th or 10th in a 14-team league get to play for a national title?

Michigan came off a 23-day layoff Sunday and had a terrific comeback win at Wisconsin; Ohio State has won 9 of its last 10 games, Illinois has won five in a row (with two OT wins). One of the things I’ll be looking at is if Iowa gets in the same bracket as a real athletic underdog, a team like VCU or Loyola or Oregon.

Big X— Baylor hasn’t played in three weeks; my thing is that teams will need 3-4 games before the tournament to get their sea legs back. Oklahoma won its last won 7 of its last 8 games, and has a coach who has taken two other schools to a Final Four. They’re going to get six teams in the tournament unless Oklahoma State gets hot and makes it seven.

Texas was 11-2 before their 10-day COVID pause; they’re 3-2 since, but won their last couple games- they’re a team to watch between now and Selection Sunday.

Big West— I enjoy watching Big West games on my laptop late at night; its a good league, not a great league, but highly competitive. Adding Cal-Bakersfield made their conference tournament a hell of a lot harder- they’re a tough defensive team that doesn’t score points early, a lot like Cal-Irvine, another one of the league’s frontrunners.

Cal-Santa Barbara hasn’t lost yet in 2021 (10-0); this is the best team Cal-Riverside has ever had, and with a first-year head coach. Bottom part of the league has been on pause a lot; the semi-final doubleheader at the Big West tournament will be must-see TV.

Conference USA— North Texas/Western Kentucky seem like the two best teams; Mean Green hasn’t made the tournament since 2010, WKU hasn’t made it since 2013. UAB, Louisiana Tech also have a legit shot to win the tournament; this is a one-bid league.

Last three NCAA tournaments, C-USA had three different teams repping it, and none of those three were North Texas/Western Kentucky. Hilltoppers have an NBA big man in Bassey and three senior starters; this is Rick Stansbury’s time to shine.

Mountain West— Utah State, Boise State, San Diego State figure to battle it out in Las Vegas; Aztecs can get an at-large bid even if they lose in Vegas- they beat UCLA, Arizona State back before Christmas. San Diego State plays Boise State twice in a couple weeks; Aztecs got swept by Utah State. All three of those teams shouldo be in the Mountain West Final Four.

Bottom half of this league is really bad; the bottom three teams are a combined 6-35. Aztecs will sweat some on Selection Sunday if they lose in the MW tournament, but they’re likely the only team in the league that rates an at-large bid.

Pac-12— Contrary to what Bill Walton talks about on ESPN every week, league is a little down- Arizona’s being ineligible because of recruiting violations is a big part of that. I’m thinking four teams from Pac-12 get in. Right now, USC is clearly the best team, but Andy Enfield won more NCAA tourney game at Florida Gulf Coast (2) than he has with the Trojans (1).

UCLA lost three of its last five games; Mick Cronin hasn’t had a great record in March. Oregon usually gets stronger as time goes on; they’re likely to make some noise next month. Colorado has a veteran team, but they play one good game, then have a stinker- their last three losses are to Washington, Utah, Cal, all bad losses.

SEC— The most 2020 thing in college hoop is that Kentucky is 6-13, 6-7 in conference; curious to see if John Calipari is in the CBS studio during the first round of the tournament. With the league’s perennial frontrunner out of the picture, that leaves Alabama as the best team- they’re fun to watch, play a very fast pace, but they don’t have a great basketball pedigree (one win in NCAA’s, since 2007).

SEC figures to get five other teams in the field of 68; Arkansas, Florida, LSU, Missouri, Tennessee. Would expect all six teams to win their first round game; not sure any of them, other than Alabama, will get to the Sweet 16.

Southern— Much like the Big West, I’m looking forward to the semi-finals of this tournament; this is a one-bid league, so when East Tennessee, Furman, NC-Greensboro and Wofford likely face off in the semi-finals, it’ll be very entertaining.

WCC— Gonzaga is in this league; they’re this generation’s version of Jerry Tarkanian’s great UNLV teams from 30-40 years ago. Big fish, small pond, strong national footprint. Gonzaga is going to be favored to win a national title; that springs added pressure.

BYU is only other WCC team that has a shot at an at-large bid; they have wins over San Diego State, Utah. BYU probably needs to get to 20 wins for that to happen; they’re a mature team in terms of the players’ ages, which has to help in a weird season like this one.

**Udog** · 02-15-2021, 09:40 AM

5ST LOUIS -6 ARIZONA
ST LOUIS are 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) in road games after a close win by 1 goal in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

7NY ISLANDERS -8 BUFFALO
NY ISLANDERS are 0-5 ATS (-6.5 Units) in road games against poor defensive teams - opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal in the current season.

11OTTAWA -12 TORONTO
OTTAWA is 5-1 ATS (3.9 Units) after scoring 2 goals or less in 5 straight games in the last 3 seasons.

13CHICAGO -14 DETROIT
CHICAGO is 10-4 ATS (5.6 Units) in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

15NASHVILLE -16 DALLAS
NASHVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

17WINNIPEG -18 EDMONTON
WINNIPEG is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) off a close home loss by 1 goal over the last 2 seasons.

19CALGARY -20 VANCOUVER
VANCOUVER is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) off a home win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

21ANAHEIM -22 SAN JOSE
ANAHEIM is 1-8 ATS (-8.9 Units) against poor starting goalies - saving <= 89.5% of shots against over the last 2 seasons.

87COLUMBUS -88 CAROLINA
COLUMBUS are 40-83 ATS (-51.3 Units) off a close loss by 1 goal to a division rival since 1996.

89FLORIDA -90 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 60-26 ATS (19.7 Units) against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game over the last 2 seasons.

**Udog** · 02-15-2021, 09:42 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Monday, February 15

**Udog** · 02-15-2021, 09:44 AM

NHL

Monday, February 15

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Trend Report
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St. Louis @ Arizona
St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
St. Louis is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona
Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing St. Louis
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

NY Islanders @ Buffalo
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Islanders is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing NY Islanders
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games when playing at home against NY Islanders

Columbus @ Carolina
Columbus
Columbus is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Columbus is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing at home against Columbus

Florida @ Tampa Bay
Florida
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Florida's last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Florida
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Ottawa @ Toronto
Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Ottawa's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ottawa's last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing at home against Ottawa
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa

Chicago @ Detroit
Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games at home

Nashville @ Dallas
Nashville
Nashville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nashville's last 7 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Nashville
Dallas is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Nashville

Winnipeg @ Edmonton
Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Winnipeg is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton
Edmonton is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Edmonton is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Calgary @ Vancouver
Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games on the road
Vancouver
Vancouver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Vancouver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Anaheim @ San Jose
Anaheim
Anaheim is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Anaheim's last 14 games
San Jose
San Jose is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Anaheim
San Jose is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Anaheim

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**Udog** · 02-15-2021, 10:58 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Monday, February 15

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ST LOUIS (9-4-0-2, 20 pts.) at ARIZONA (6-6-0-2, 14 pts.) - 2/15/2021, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 5-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 209-202 ATS (+427.5 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
ARIZONA is 11-25 ATS (+37.0 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 7-5 (+4.8 Units) against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 7-5-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.6 Units)

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NY ISLANDERS (6-4-0-3, 15 pts.) at BUFFALO (4-4-0-2, 10 pts.) - 2/15/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY ISLANDERS are 1-6 ATS (-6.4 Units) in road games after a division game this season.
NY ISLANDERS are 30-18 ATS (+49.1 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY ISLANDERS is 4-1 (+3.0 Units) against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NY ISLANDERS is 4-1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.7 Units)

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OTTAWA (3-12-0-1, 7 pts.) at TORONTO (11-3-0-1, 23 pts.) - 2/15/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 2-13 ATS (+23.0 Units) after a division game this season.
TORONTO is 432-437 ATS (-49.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 4-5 (+3.2 Units) against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 5-4-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.7 Units)

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CHICAGO (7-5-0-4, 18 pts.) at DETROIT (4-10-0-2, 10 pts.) - 2/15/2021, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 390-391 ATS (-146.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
DETROIT is 21-66 ATS (+93.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 330-320 ATS (-300.4 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
DETROIT is 7-31 ATS (+62.0 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 14-48 ATS (+103.4 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 109-130 ATS (-118.3 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
DETROIT is 470-389 ATS (-130.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 5-1 (+3.1 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 5-1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.0 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

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NASHVILLE (6-9-0-0, 12 pts.) at DALLAS (5-3-0-4, 14 pts.) - 2/15/2021, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 42-46 ATS (-25.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 19-21 ATS (-18.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 10-14 ATS (-15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 10-7 (+4.4 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 10-7-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.5 Units)

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WINNIPEG (8-5-0-1, 17 pts.) at EDMONTON (9-7-0-0, 18 pts.) - 2/15/2021, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 12-6 ATS (+5.1 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 59-95 ATS (-61.9 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1996.
EDMONTON is 18-31 ATS (-14.8 Units) in home games after shutting out their opponent in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 5-3 (+1.3 Units) against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 5-3-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.8 Units)

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CALGARY (7-6-0-1, 15 pts.) at VANCOUVER (7-11-0-0, 14 pts.) - 2/15/2021, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 129-125 ATS (+284.7 Units) in road games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
CALGARY is 117-120 ATS (+264.7 Units) in road games after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 7-5-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.7 Units, Under=-0.5 Units)

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ANAHEIM (6-6-0-3, 15 pts.) at SAN JOSE (5-7-0-1, 11 pts.) - 2/15/2021, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 179-147 ATS (-70.1 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1996.
SAN JOSE is 197-169 ATS (-91.6 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.
SAN JOSE is 240-168 ATS (-28.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE is 5-4-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.9 Units)

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COLUMBUS (7-5-0-4, 18 pts.) at CAROLINA (9-3-0-0, 18 pts.) - 2/15/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 49-25 ATS (+14.9 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 53-63 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
CAROLINA is 222-188 ATS (-40.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 6-3 (+3.8 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBUS is 6-3-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.7 Units)

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FLORIDA (8-2-0-2, 18 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (10-2-0-1, 21 pts.) - 2/15/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 133-61 ATS (+70.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 33-10 ATS (+10.8 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 132-140 ATS (+308.1 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent since 1996.
FLORIDA is 24-12 ATS (+10.1 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 3-9 ATS (-13.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 10-15 ATS (-12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 8-2 (+5.3 Units) against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 8-2-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+5.6 Units)

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Announcement

Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 2/15

Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 2/15

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