Announcement

**Udog** · 01-31-2021, 07:51 AM

Do not inflict your will. Just give love. The soul will take that love and put it where it can best be used.

**Udog** · 01-31-2021, 07:51 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Most passing yards in a Super Bowl:
365— Kurt Warner
373— Nick Foles
377— Kurt Warner
414— Kurt Warner
466— Tom Brady
505— Tom Brady

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 436,117
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out

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Armadillo: Sunday's Den: Early thoughts on a blockbuster trade

Was all set to write a fascinating summary of Saturday’s college basketball action, then around 10pm, news broke of a blockbuster trade in the NFL, and it involved the Rams, so I opened up a cold bottle of Sierra Mist as my head spun around like Linda Blair in The Exorcist.

I could write about this for the next two days, but you’d probably get bored reading it, so I’ll try and keep it to the essential points. I won’t succeed, but I’ll try.

— November 1, 2008 I was at a Tennessee-South Carolina game in Columbia; we tailgated in a field and watched college games all afternoon on big-screen TV tucked in luggage compartment of a Winnebago- it was a very excellent day, an hour of which was spent debating the merits of Matthew Stafford as a quarterback— he was in his last year at Georgia.

My friend didn’t (probably still doesn’t) like Stafford as a QB; I was in his corner, and now, 12 years later, he is the Rams’ QB, my team’s quarterback. Hope I was right back then.

— By the way, we had Church’s Fried Chicken that day, the absolute best fried chicken I’ve ever had. They have a couple Church’s stores in Las Vegas; it is worth a cab ride to get some.

— Stafford-for-Goff is the first player-for-player trade this century involving players who were both taken first overall in an NFL Draft, Stafford in 2009, Goff seven years later.

— Detroit’s new GM is Brad Holmes, who had been the Rams’ director of scouting. Because Holmes is a minority, the Rams got two 3rd-round picks when he was named Detroit’s GM— one of those now goes back to the Lions, as part of this deal.

— Six other teams were trying to acquire Stafford; the Rams didn’t have a first round pick this year, so they kicked in two 1st-round picks (2022, 2023), plus that 3rd-round pick.

— Remember this phrase: salary cap relief. Goff’s contract is way heavier than Stafford’s, and the Rams have several other (good) players they’d like to keep— this deal will let them do that.

— A summation of the QB’s records:
— Stafford is 74-93-1 as an NFL starter, 0-3 in playoff games.
— Goff is 44-30 as an NFL starter, 2-3 in playoff games, but he also won the Seattle playoff game a few weeks ago, in relief.

— Only 14 QB’s have started a Super Bowl in their first three years in the NFL; Goff was #13.

— Lions visit SoFi Stadium next fall; I’m guessing that’ll be a Monday night game.

— Last time the Rams had a first round pick was 2016, when they took Goff. Now, the next first round pick they have is 2024; they traded for Goff, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Ramsey and now Stafford. GM Les Snead likes to trade picks for known quantities— seeing how the Rams are 46-27 the last four years, I’d say Les Snead is doing a damn fine job, and so is coach McVay.

— Speaking of which, think about this: the quarterback has a radio in his helmet, and that voice is in his ear every play, until the play clock hits 0:15, For the last four years, the voice in Goff’s ear was McVay, who is known as a quarterback guru.

The last time McVay wasn’t in Goff’s ear, things didn’t go so well, but he was a rookie back then, and now he has a good body of work behind him. Former Chargers’ coach Anthony Lynn is Detroit’s new offensive coordinator.

— Goff doesn’t like cold weather, and Chicago/Green Bay (Lions’ NFC North rivals) have outdoor stadiums, where it gets cold late in the season. Really cold.

— Stafford’s 0-3 career playoff record raises eyebrows: here are the games:
2011— L45-28 @ New Orleans. Was 28-43/380 passing, with 3 TD’s, 2 INT’s.
2014— L24-20 @ Dallas. Was 28-42/323 passing, with one TD, one INT in his hometown.
2016— L26-6 @ Seattle. Was 18-32/205 passing. Game was 10-6 after three quarters.

— Hopefully next December, I’ll be worrying about his playoff record, because that’ll mean the Rams made the playoffs.

— An obscure and hopefully irrelevant detail: Goff’s father played major league baseball, and Jared Goff is a big SF Giants fan, which means he dislikes the Dodgers, which isn’t a really great thing for LA’s quarterback. Now he isn’t LA’s quarterback anymore.

When Matthew Stafford was a high school QB in Texas, the center he took snaps from was a kid named Clayton Kershaw, who is now a great pitcher for the Dodgers. So at least now the Rams’ quarterback will throw out the first pitch at a Dodger game.

**Udog** · 01-31-2021, 08:19 AM

25NEW JERSEY -26 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 10-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in the last 3 seasons.

27DALLAS -28 CAROLINA
DALLAS are 12-3 ATS (11.6 Units) against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opp over the last 2 seasons.

29FLORIDA -30 DETROIT
DETROIT is 10-41 ATS (-24 Units) against poor power play killing teams - opp score on >17.5% of chances over the last 2 seasons.

31NY ISLANDERS -32 PHILADELPHIA
NY ISLANDERS are 6-0 ATS (7.6 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

33COLUMBUS -34 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 47-62 ATS (-40.4 Units) in home games against terrible power play teams - scoring on < 13% of their chances since 1996.

35COLORADO -36 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 7-1 ATS (6.9 Units) against good defensive teams - allowing <=2.55 goals/game over the last 2 seasons.

37ST LOUIS -38 ANAHEIM
ANAHEIM is 7-21 ATS (-20.6 Units) against terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 0.5+ goals/game in the last 3 seasons.

39OTTAWA -40 EDMONTON
OTTAWA is 11-5 ATS (5.5 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games in the last 3 seasons.

**Udog** · 01-31-2021, 08:21 AM

NHL

Sunday, January 31

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Trend Report
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New Jersey @ Buffalo
New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Jersey's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
New Jersey is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against New Jersey
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Jersey

Dallas @ Carolina
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games at home

Florida @ Detroit
Florida
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Florida is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Florida
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

NY Islanders @ Philadelphia
NY Islanders
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Islanders's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Islanders's last 8 games on the road
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 11 games when playing at home against NY Islanders

Columbus @ Chicago
Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Columbus's last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Columbus's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

St. Louis @ Anaheim
St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Anaheim
St. Louis is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Anaheim
Anaheim
Anaheim is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Anaheim's last 6 games at home

Colorado @ Minnesota
Colorado
Colorado is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
Minnesota is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Colorado

Ottawa @ Edmonton
Ottawa
Ottawa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Ottawa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games

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**Udog** · 01-31-2021, 09:19 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Sunday, January 31

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NEW JERSEY (3-3-0-2, 8 pts.) at BUFFALO (4-3-0-2, 10 pts.) - 1/31/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 17-6 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 95-78 ATS (+177.1 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
BUFFALO is 49-73 ATS (-50.6 Units) in home games when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 4-2 (+1.6 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-2-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.7 Units)

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DALLAS (4-1-0-0, 8 pts.) at CAROLINA (4-1-0-0, 8 pts.) - 1/31/2021, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 273-181 ATS (+58.3 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
DALLAS is 243-167 ATS (+38.9 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.
DALLAS is 38-34 ATS (+80.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 (+0.8 Units) against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+5.0 Units)

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FLORIDA (4-0-0-1, 9 pts.) at DETROIT (2-5-0-2, 6 pts.) - 1/31/2021, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 19-61 ATS (-71.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 12-37 ATS (+76.2 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 328-315 ATS (-70.1 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
DETROIT is 5-26 ATS (+50.8 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 7-1 (+5.0 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 7-1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.4 Units, Under=-0.7 Units)

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NY ISLANDERS (3-4-0-1, 7 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (6-2-0-1, 13 pts.) - 1/31/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY ISLANDERS are 0-5 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after a division game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 57-37 ATS (+101.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 26-15 ATS (+42.6 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 18-5 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 29-17 ATS (+47.1 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 54-52 ATS (+123.9 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 460-402 ATS (-170.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY ISLANDERS is 9-6 (+1.5 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NY ISLANDERS is 9-6-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.7 Units)

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COLUMBUS (4-2-0-3, 11 pts.) at CHICAGO (2-4-0-3, 7 pts.) - 1/31/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 388-390 ATS (+859.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
CHICAGO is 107-97 ATS (-64.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-2 (+1.7 Units) against the spread versus COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-2-0 straight up against COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.2 Units)

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COLORADO (6-3-0-0, 12 pts.) at MINNESOTA (5-4-0-0, 10 pts.) - 1/31/2021, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 204-177 ATS (+381.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 17-22 ATS (-8.3 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-18 ATS (-12.2 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 5-4-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.8 Units)

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ST LOUIS (5-2-0-1, 11 pts.) at ANAHEIM (3-4-0-2, 8 pts.) - 1/31/2021, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 471-488 ATS (-19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 5-2 (+1.8 Units) against the spread versus ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 5-2-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.3 Units)

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OTTAWA (1-6-0-1, 3 pts.) at EDMONTON (4-6-0-0, 8 pts.) - 1/31/2021, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 2-15 ATS (+24.4 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 0-7 ATS (+9.1 Units) after a division game this season.
OTTAWA is 0-10 ATS (+18.8 Units) in road games after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.7 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 11-5 ATS (+17.9 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 123-150 ATS (-75.2 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
EDMONTON is 33-44 ATS (+77.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 88-106 ATS (-82.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 2-1 (+2.9 Units) against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 2-1-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.0 Units)

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**Udog** · 01-31-2021, 09:46 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Sunday, January 31

Announcement

Sunday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 1/31

Sunday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 1/31

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