Cnotes 2020/2021 NHL Season Long Trends, News, Notes, Picks !

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77EDMONTON -78 TORONTO
EDMONTON is 11-5 ATS (11.2 Units) in road games vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.

77EDMONTON -78 TORONTO
DAVE TIPPETT is 11-5 ATS (5.5 Units) in road games vs. winning teams (Coach of EDMONTON)

79SAN JOSE -80 ST LOUIS
ST LOUIS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) off a close win by 1 goal over a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

81MINNESOTA -82 ANAHEIM
ANAHEIM is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders in the last 3 seasons.

83MONTREAL -84 VANCOUVER
VANCOUVER is 31-23 ATS (13.3 Units) against good offensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp over the last 2 seasons.

85ARIZONA -86 VEGAS
VEGAS are 25-27 ATS (-23.9 Units) against horrible power play killing teams-opp score on >19% of chances over the last 2 seasons.




NHL
Dunkel

Wednesday, January 20






NHL

Wednesday, January 20

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Trend Report
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Edmonton @ Toronto
Edmonton
Edmonton is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Edmonton's last 9 games
Toronto
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Edmonton

San Jose @ St. Louis
San Jose
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose's last 5 games
San Jose is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose
St. Louis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Jose

Minnesota @ Anaheim
Minnesota
Minnesota is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Minnesota's last 15 games when playing Anaheim
Anaheim
Anaheim is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Anaheim is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Montreal @ Vancouver
Montreal
Montreal is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Montreal is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Vancouver
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Vancouver's last 9 games when playing at home against Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vancouver's last 6 games at home

Arizona @ Vegas
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Vegas
Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vegas's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Vegas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home


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Wednesday’s 6-pack
Some of the college basketball teams who play fastest tempo:
1) Citadel 8-3, SoCon
4) Monmouth 7-4, MAAC
6) Eastern Kentucky 12-2, OVC
7) Gonzaga 14-0, WCC
8) Georgia 8-4, SEC
9) Buffalo 5-5 MAC

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 400,103
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“Don’t forget to dress warm tomorrow, it’s supposed to be minus 45.”
Tom Steyer

Wednesday’s quiz
Of the 50 states in our country, which state was the first one?

Tuesday’s quiz
Ben Simmons played his one season of college basketball at LSU.

Monday’s quiz
Drew Brees originally played for the Chargers, before going to New Orleans.

*****************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….

13) Toronto Blue Jays signed OF George Springer to a 6-year, $150M contract Tuesday night; Springer played with Houston for seven years, has a .852 career OPS.

Blue Jays also signed reliever Kirby Yates to a 1-year contract.

12) Baseball America published its list of the top 100 prospects; Vladimir Guerrero Jr is younger than 55 of the 100 guys on that list, and he already has 757 plate appearances in the big leagues.

11) New York Mets acted quickly and fired GM Jared Porter, who held the job for 37 days or so; Porter lost his job when it became public that he had sent sent explicit pictures to a female reporter back in 2016, when he worked for the Cubs. Mets said they probably won’t replace Porter this year, just split up his responsibilities between the rest of the front office.

Mets’ president of baseball operations Sandy Alderson did a Zoom news conference Tuesday; he had a Sean Spicer-level of discomfort answering reporters’ questions. What had been a super winter for Met fans was, for now, derailed by this debacle.

10) They were talking on MLB Network Tuesday, saying that lot of teams are likely to use a 6-man starting rotation this season, since pitchers didn’t throw as much last year, so they won’t to jump up their workload all in one year.

Spring training starts four weeks from today, by the way.

9) We still don’t know if there will be a designated hitter in the National League this season; like I said, spring training starts in four weeks, would be nice if they figured it out soon.

Free agents Marcell Ozuna, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Moreland will bank lot more $$$ this season if the DH is in both leagues.

8) Baltimore Ravens cut backup QB Robert Griffin III this week; RGIII was the #2 overall pick in the 2012 Draft, after the Redskins paid a ransom to the Rams for that pick.

Washington went 10-6 in Griffin’s rookie year, losing 24-14 to Seattle in their first playoff game, but it was all downhill from there. After going 9-6 as a starter that year, Griffin went 7-20 as a starter the rest of his career, a career that is now likely over.

7) Northwestern Wildcats picked up a QB Tuesday; Ryan Hilinski will transfer to the Wildcats after bolting South Carolina. Hilinski started for the Gamecocks as a true freshman in 2019, throwing for 2,357 yards and 11 touchdowns, but he lost his starting job last fall and wound up as the #3 QB on the roster.

6) Tampa Bay Buccaneers are first #5-seed to reach a conference final since the 49ers seven years ago; Tennessee made the AFC title game as a #6-seed last year.

5) Tennessee Titans WR AJ Brown had surgery on both knees Tuesday; Brown caught 70 passes for 1,075 yards and 11 TD’s— he is the first Tennessee WR with back-to-back seasons of 1,000+ receiving yards since Derrick Mason did it in 2003-04.

4) Not sure what it is about Staples Center, but Steph Curry has made only 6 of his last 32 3-point attempt in Staples, whether he was playing against the Lakers/Clippers. Curry has a career 3-point percentage of 43.3%, so 6-32 is quite a slump.

3) Alabama 105, LSU 75:
— Crimson Tide made 23-43 3-pointers; they’re up to 35.9% on the arc for the season.
— Alabama has won eight games in a row; if their uniforms said “Kentucky” on the front, they’d be a top-5 team in the country.

2) Pittsburgh 79, Duke 73:
— Duke is 5-4; their best win is over the #86 team.
— Duke is a thin team that is #344 in experience; they appear headed to the bubble and a nervous Selection Sunday.

1) Villanova 76, Seton Hall 74
— Wildcats hadn’t played in 27 days; this was a good game.
— Villanova led by 9 with 7:21 left; game was decided a foul with 0:00.9 left that I’n guessing the ref wishes he hadn’t called.
— Seton Hall shot 65.6% inside the arc; both teams shot 40%+ on the arc.

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[SIZE=1]NHL JANUARY'S RECORD

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

01/19/2021 7-4-0 63.64% +1475 Detail
01/18/2021 12-5-0 70.59% +3300 Detail
01/17/2021 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
01/16/2021 11-9-0 55.00% +400 Detail
01/15/2021 7-3-0 70.00% +2300 Detail
01/14/2021 6-13-0 31.58% -3900 Detail
01/13/2021 4-6-0 40.00% -1250 Detail

TOTAL..........48-41-0.......53.93%.....+22.75

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TUESDAY, JANUARY 19
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WIN at OTT 07:00 PM
O 6.0

NJ at NYR 07:00 PM
NJ +125
U 6.0

WAS at PIT 07:00 PM
WAS +115
O 6.5

CHI at FLA 07:00 PM
FLA -165
O 6.5

BUF at PHI 07:00 PM
PHI -135
O 6.0

CLB at DET 07:30 PM
O 5.5

CAR at NAS 08:00 PM
CAR -115

COL at LA 10:00 PM
U 5.5

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NHL
Long Sheet

Tuesday, January 19

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NEW JERSEY (1-0-0-1, 3 pts.) at NY RANGERS (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) - 1/19/2021, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW JERSEY is 13-8 ATS (+24.2 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 159-156 ATS (-83.7 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 169-169 ATS (-76.4 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 129-129 ATS (-80.4 Units) in home games after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 151-147 ATS (-84.7 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 5-3 (+1.4 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 5-3-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+5.0 Units)

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CHICAGO (0-3-0-0, 0 pts.) at FLORIDA (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) - 1/19/2021, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 3-2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.7 Units)

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BUFFALO (1-2-0-0, 2 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (2-1-0-0, 4 pts.) - 1/19/2021, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 5-22 ATS (+36.7 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 53-35 ATS (+99.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 21-8 ATS (+12.4 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-9 ATS (+7.2 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 458-401 ATS (-92.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-2 (+1.4 Units) against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+4.0 Units)

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WINNIPEG (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at OTTAWA (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) - 1/19/2021, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 11-5 ATS (+5.2 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 130-121 ATS (-18.6 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
OTTAWA is 2-14 ATS (+20.7 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 2-2 (+1.3 Units) against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 2-2-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.9 Units)

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WASHINGTON (2-0-0-1, 5 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (1-2-0-0, 2 pts.) - 1/19/2021, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 14-20 ATS (-15.6 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 135-88 ATS (+26.3 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
PITTSBURGH is 22-28 ATS (-18.5 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 5-3 (+2.1 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-3-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.7 Units)

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COLUMBUS (1-2-0-0, 2 pts.) at DETROIT (1-2-0-0, 2 pts.) - 1/19/2021, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLUMBUS is 13-6 ATS (+19.9 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 468-386 ATS (-118.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 6-1 (+3.6 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBUS is 6-1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.9 Units)

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CAROLINA (2-1-0-0, 4 pts.) at NASHVILLE (2-1-0-0, 4 pts.) - 1/19/2021, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 428-451 ATS (-43.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
NASHVILLE is 184-175 ATS (+397.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season since 1996.
NASHVILLE is 13-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 9-13 ATS (-14.7 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 4-1 (+3.2 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 4-1-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

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COLORADO (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (0-0-0-2, 2 pts.) - 1/19/2021, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 12-5 ATS (+17.1 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 177-184 ATS (-18.8 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 3-3 (+2.3 Units) against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 3-3-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.8 Units)


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NHL

Tuesday, January 19

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Trend Report
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Chicago @ Florida
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Florida
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Florida
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Florida is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

New Jersey @ NY Rangers
New Jersey
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Jersey's last 7 games on the road
New Jersey is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
NY Rangers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Rangers's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of NY Rangers's last 11 games when playing New Jersey

Buffalo @ Philadelphia
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Buffalo

Washington @ Pittsburgh
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

Winnipeg @ Ottawa
Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games on the road
Ottawa
Ottawa is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg

Columbus @ Detroit
Columbus
Columbus is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Columbus is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Detroit's last 13 games when playing at home against Columbus
Detroit is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Columbus

Carolina @ Nashville
Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Nashville
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Nashville
Nashville
Nashville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Nashville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

Colorado @ Los Angeles
Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Colorado's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

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NHL
Dunkel

Tuesday, January 19

[StarDust Bum]

61NEW JERSEY -62 NY RANGERS
NY RANGERS are 43-35 ATS (4.5 Units) after playing a home game in the last 3 seasons.

63CHICAGO -64 FLORIDA
FLORIDA is 6-15 ATS (-12 Units) in home games against excellent power play teams - scoring on > 19% of their chances over the last 2 seasons.

63CHICAGO -64 FLORIDA
JOEL QUENNEVILLE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games against excellent power play teams - scoring on > 19% of their chances (Coach of FLORIDA)

65BUFFALO -66 PHILADELPHIA
ALAIN VIGNEAULT is 27-14 ATS (11.6 Units) against good passing teams - averaging 5 or more assists per game (Coach of PHILADELPHIA)

65BUFFALO -66 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 27-14 ATS (16.9 Units) against good passing teams - averaging 5 or more assists per game over the last 2 seasons.

67WINNIPEG -68 OTTAWA
WINNIPEG is 8-2 ATS (5.8 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

71COLUMBUS -72 DETROIT
DETROIT is 11-45 ATS (-25.1 Units) against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game over the last 2 seasons.

73CAROLINA -74 NASHVILLE
NASHVILLE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days in the last 3 seasons.

75COLORADO -76 LOS ANGELES
TODD MCLELLAN is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest (Coach of LOS ANGELES)

75COLORADO -76 LOS ANGELES
LOS ANGELES are 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.

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Tuesday’s 6-pack
Six of the most experienced college basketball teams:
1) Cal-Bakersfield (9-4, 5-1 Big West)
2) Eastern Illinois (5-8, 2-4 OVC)
4) Georgia Tech (6-3, 2-1 ACC)
5) Richmond (9-3, 3-1 A-14)
8) Missouri (8-2, 2-2 SEC)
9) Niagara (5-7, 4-6 MAAC)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 400,103
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“Forgive your enemies, but never forget their names.”
John F Kennedy

Tuesday’s quiz
Where did Ben Simmons play his one season of college basketball?

Monday’s quiz
Drew Brees originally played for the Chargers, before going to New Orleans.

Sunday’s quiz
Buffalo Bills lost 30-13 to Dallas, the last time they were in a Super Bowl, in January 1994

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Tuesday’s Den: Random thoughts on a winter night

13) Florida State 78, Louisville 65:
— How the bleep is Florida State not in the top 25?
— Seminoles never trailed, led 40-16 at one point.

12) Baylor 78, Kansas 69:
— 13-0 Baylor has six top 100 wins.
— Bears are #4 in country shooting 3’s, #3 at forcing turnovers.

11) Warriors 115, Lakers 113:
— Golden State was down 19 in first quarter, 17 in third quarter.
— Warriors’ subs were a combined +43 in this game.

10) Nets 125, Bucks 123:
— This looked a lot like a preview of Eastern Conference finals.
— Harden had 34 points, 12 assists in his 2nd game for Brooklyn.

9) Portland star CJ McCollum (foot) is out for at least a week; he is scoring 26.7 ppg this year.

8) Tennessee fired football coach Jeremy Pruitt Monday; AD Philip Fulmer was also told to take a hike— oh wait, he “retired” Uh-huh.

Pruitt was 16-19 overall at Tennessee, 10-16 in the SEC- Vols lost seven of their last eight games this season. There are stories that Pruitt got fired after an investigation into potential recruiting violations within the program— he really got fired for being 3-7 last year.

Everyone cheats at that level of college recruiting; if you don’t cheat, you finish last. If you cheat and you still finish last (or close to it), then you get fired.

Two ways to keep your SEC coaching job:
— Don’t go 3-7.
— Don’t get caught cheating after going 3-7.

7) Oy. New York Mets were having such a good winter, with a new owner and all, “were having” being the operative phrase there.

Turns out that recently hired GM Jared Porter sent explicit, unsolicited photos to a female reporter in 2016, when he was working for the Cubs. This isn’t a good thing.

The woman was a foreign correspondent who had moved to this country to cover baseball; she has left journalism since then, and hadn’t commented publicly until now, because Porter was a nobody until now.

She has a limited grasp of the English language, but an interesting grasp of timing; might be difficult for the guy to keep the best job he was ever going to get.

6) Porter and the Mets pulled off a 3-way trade Monday:
— Mets get lefty P Joey Lucchesi
— Padres get P Joe Musgrove
— Pirates get a boatload of prospects, one of whom is expected to be Hudson Head, an OF a lot of scouts think highly of.

5) When the president of the United States leaves office, he gets a pension of $210,700 a year for the rest of his life.

Jimmy Carter was a president who is actually a decent person; he has written 14 books since he left office, as well as helping Habitat for Humanity build homes for people who need them.

4) St John’s 74, UConn 70:
— UConn led this game 21-7 early.
— Red Storm are still only 3-6 in Big East, and UConn’s best player didn’t play, but its an important win for their program.

3) Other baseball stuff:
— Washington Nationals signed P Jon Lester for one year for undisclosed money.
— Los Angeles Angels signed C Kurt Suzuki for one year, $1.5M.

2) From the Elias Sports Bureau: New Orleans Saints are first NFL team ever to win 49+ regular-season games in four-year span without reaching the Super Bowl during that time.

1) This is the first week since December, 1982 that neither Duke/North Carolina is in the college basketball top 25.

[StarDust Bum]

[SIZE=1]NHL JANUARY'S RECORD

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

01/18/2021 12-5-0 70.59% +3300 Detail
01/17/2021 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
01/16/2021 11-9-0 55.00% +400 Detail
01/15/2021 7-3-0 70.00% +2300 Detail
01/14/2021 6-13-0 31.58% -3900 Detail
01/13/2021 4-6-0 40.00% -1250 Detail

TOTAL..........41-37-0.......52.56%.....+8.00

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MONDAY, JANUARY 18
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CLB at DET 12:00 PM
CLB -180
O 5.5

BOS at NYI 05:00 PM
NYI +125
U 5.5

WIN at TOR 07:00 PM
TOR -155
O 6.5

BUF at PHI 07:30 PM
PHI -155
O 6.0

SJ at STL 08:00 PM
O 6.0

CAR at NAS 08:00 PM
CAR -130

VAN at CAL 09:00 PM
VAN +130

MIN at ANA 09:00 PM
ANA +120
U 5.5
+500 +500

MON at EDM 09:00 PM
MON -115
U 6.5

ARI at VEG 10:00 PM
VEG -200
U 5.5

[StarDust Bum]

NHL

Monday, January 18

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Trend Report
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Columbus @ Detroit
Columbus
Columbus is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Columbus is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Detroit's last 12 games when playing at home against Columbus

Boston @ NY Islanders
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing NY Islanders
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders
NY Islanders
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Islanders's last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Islanders's last 5 games

Winnipeg @ Toronto
Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Winnipeg's last 16 games when playing Toronto
Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Toronto's last 16 games when playing Winnipeg

Buffalo @ Philadelphia
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo

Carolina @ Nashville
Carolina
Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Carolina is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Nashville
Nashville
Nashville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nashville's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina

San Jose @ St. Louis
San Jose
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Jose's last 5 games
San Jose is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Jose

Minnesota @ Anaheim
Minnesota
Minnesota is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
Anaheim
Anaheim is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Anaheim is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home

Vancouver @ Calgary
Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Vancouver's last 13 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vancouver's last 6 games
Calgary
Calgary is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Vancouver
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Vancouver

Montreal @ Edmonton
Montreal
Montreal is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Montreal is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Edmonton
Edmonton is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games at home

Arizona @ Vegas
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Vegas
Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vegas's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vegas's last 5 games when playing Arizona


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NHL
Long Sheet

Monday, January 18

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COLUMBUS (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) at DETROIT (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) - 1/18/2021, 12:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 18-14 ATS (+42.5 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 468-385 ATS (-206.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 5-1 (+2.6 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBUS is 5-1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.9 Units)

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BOSTON (1-0-0-1, 3 pts.) at NY ISLANDERS (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) - 1/18/2021, 5:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 227-177 ATS (+46.0 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 5-1 (+3.1 Units) against the spread versus NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 5-1-0 straight up against NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+5.0 Units)

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WINNIPEG (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) at TORONTO (2-1-0-0, 4 pts.) - 1/18/2021, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-1 (+1.2 Units) against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-1-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

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BUFFALO (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) - 1/18/2021, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 53-34 ATS (+97.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 21-7 ATS (+13.5 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 22-12 ATS (+8.0 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 26-13 ATS (+10.9 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 87-102 ATS (-83.6 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 280-291 ATS (-93.6 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 458-400 ATS (-91.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 (+2.9 Units) against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.0 Units)

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SAN JOSE (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at ST LOUIS (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) - 1/18/2021, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 10-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 7-4 (+2.8 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 7-4-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-1.3 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

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CAROLINA (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at NASHVILLE (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) - 1/18/2021, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 (+2.2 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

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MONTREAL (1-0-0-1, 3 pts.) at EDMONTON (1-2-0-0, 2 pts.) - 1/18/2021, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 18-9 ATS (+27.5 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 17-6 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-2 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 3-2-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.9 Units)

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VANCOUVER (1-2-0-0, 2 pts.) at CALGARY (1-0-0-1, 3 pts.) - 1/18/2021, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 47-42 ATS (+98.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 4-11 ATS (-17.2 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 4-5 (+0.8 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-4-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.5 Units)

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MINNESOTA (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) at ANAHEIM (0-1-0-1, 1 pts.) - 1/18/2021, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 469-486 ATS (-20.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 3-3 (+1.2 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 3-3-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.3 Units)

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ARIZONA (1-0-0-1, 3 pts.) at VEGAS (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) - 1/18/2021, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 6-18 ATS (+24.5 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 12-6 ATS (+20.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-4 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
VEGAS is 4-3-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.9 Units)

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Best Bets, Score Predictions for Monday Jan. 18
Matt Blunt

Winnipeg Jets vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Money-Line Odds: Winnipeg +138; Toronto -162
Total (Over-Under): 6.5

Score Prediction: Winnipeg 4 Toronto 3

Best Bet: Jets ML

There are always different sides to stand on in regards to the rest/rust idea early on in the season, but Toronto's clawed their way to a 2-1 SU record, while Winnipeg's still only played once.

Guys would always prefer to play themselves into shape with stretches like Toronto's fourth game in six nights like this is, but this early in the year I'm more inclined to fade teams in that role, especially as a chalky favorite like the Leafs are.

Concern about Winnipeg not playing themselves into shape yet is mitigated by the price in assessing the risk here, and it's not like Toronto has shown much either in splitting with Ottawa and needing a late comeback to force OT and beat Montreal.

The Jets can score with Toronto if that's the type of game this turns out to be, and I'm just not convinced any team is physically going to be at their best in their first 4-in-6 spot of the year.


Carolina Hurricanes vs. Nashville Predators

Money-Line Odds: Carolina -114; Nashville -103
Total (Over-Under): 5.5

Score Prediction: Carolina 4 Nashville 2

Best Bet: Hurricanes ML

Another road team for me on Monday night, as the Hurricanes find themselves in what I view as a nice bounce back spot after a bad loss to a bad Detroit team.

Good teams like Carolina are going to get caught against those basement feeders at times, in these two and three-game sets where complacency can easily set in.

But off one of those losses is where backing those teams makes some sense, and with Nashville sweeping their foe – a Columbus team that's definitely better than Detroit -- the Hurricanes may even be sold a bit short here.

Carolina's won seven of the past eight games between these two organizations as it is, and Carolina's odds to win this division are still +350, with Nashville's at +700.

Had Carolina did what was expected and took two from Detroit in a similar fashion to Nashville's 3-1, and 5-2 wins over Columbus, I think the Hurricanes price is much better than this.

No problem backing them at a number I believe to be a bargain.

[StarDust Bum]

NHL
Dunkel

Monday, January 18

[StarDust Bum]

39COLUMBUS -40 DETROIT
DETROIT is 242-182 ATS (-70.9 Units) in home games vs. losing teams since 1996.

41BOSTON -42 NY ISLANDERS
BOSTON is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games after playing a game where 3 or fewer total goals were scored over the last 2 seasons.

43WINNIPEG -44 TORONTO
WINNIPEG is 10-4 ATS (9.5 Units) in road games against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opp in the last 3 seasons.

45BUFFALO -46 PHILADELPHIA
BUFFALO is 7-33 ATS (-29.3 Units) in road games after playing a home game in the last 3 seasons.

47SAN JOSE -48 ST LOUIS
SAN JOSE is 41-51 ATS (-15.1 Units) after one or more consecutive overs in the last 3 seasons.

49CAROLINA -50 NASHVILLE
NASHVILLE is 17-28 ATS (-13.8 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games in the last 3 seasons.

51MONTREAL -52 EDMONTON
MONTREAL is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) after scoring 3 goals or more in 2 straight games in the last 3 seasons.

53VANCOUVER -54 CALGARY
CALGARY is 5-10 ATS (-6 Units) in home games after 2 consecutive division games in the last 3 seasons.

55MINNESOTA -56 ANAHEIM
ANAHEIM is 6-1 ATS (4.9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last 2 seasons.

57ARIZONA -58 VEGAS
ARIZONA is 12-6 ATS (11.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s 6-pack
— Green Bay (-4, 51) vs Tampa Bay in NFC title game
— Kansas City (-3, 54.5) vs Buffalo in AFC title game
— Purdue 80, Penn State 72— PSU is 3-5, hasn’t won since December 8
— Tulsa 58, Memphis 57— Tulsa won 7 of its last eight 8 games.
— Iowa 96, Northwestern 73— Wildcats lost their last five games.
— Virginia Tech 64, Wake Forest 60— Hokies are a surprising 11-2.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 395,372
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“This means everything to me. I didn’t know what was going on. It was a real surprise. It was breathtaking. It felt like I was in a movie or something.”
Oklahoma State basketball player Dee Williams, who was a walk-on and was working at his job at Wal-Mart, when OSU coach Mike Boynton showed up at the Wal-Mart and informed him that he had earned a scholarship to the team. All his teammates were watching on Zoom

Monday’s quiz
Which NFL team did Drew Brees originally play for?

Sunday’s quiz
Buffalo Bills lost 30-13 to Dallas, the last time they were in a Super Bowl, in January 1994

Saturday’s quiz
Of all current NBA players, Dwight Howard has the most games with 20+ points/20+ rebounds, with 51.

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Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports weekend…….

13) New Orleans Saints lost a home playoff game Sunday, third year in a row they did that, but they’ve got nothing on the Kansas City Chiefs. From 1995-2017, the Chiefs went 0-7 in playoff games at Arrowhead Stadium, an amazing display of playoff futility.

Over a 23-year period, they went 0-7 in home playoff games. Oy.

Last year’s Super Bowl title quashed those bad memories, but now all Chief fans can stress out this week about Patrick Mahomes’ concussion.

12) They mentioned a cool stat Sunday that I had never heard of before; from 2012-15, Seattle Seahawks led at one point or another in 70 consecutive games, which is the all-time record. Right now, Kansas City has led in 60 consecutive games, so the record is within reach.

11) When I was a kid, I learned how to do math in my head by doing batting averages; if Sal Bando went 4-13 for a weekend, I knew that was .308. if Catfish Hunter gave up two runs in seven innings, I knew that was a 2.57 ERA. Stuff like that; decades later, when I was an adult, I actually got a job promotion because of my math skills. For real, a big promotion.

So when I see the Big EAST Conference has five teams in the midwest, it saddens me; how can kids learn geography if they think Nebraska is in the east?

— Xavier is in Cincinnati
— Creighton is in Omaha
— DePaul is in Chicago
— Marquette is in Milwaukee
— Butler is in Indianapolis

None of those cities are close to the east; they’re midwestern cities.

Big East needs to find a better name for the league, for education’s sake.

10) Houston Cougars are 11-1, with a win over Texas Tech; all 15 of their players have already tested positive for COVID at some point this season. They’ve got a shot at going a long way in March/Mask Madness.

9) Ivy League didn’t play basketball this winter, which means one less automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, and one more at-large bid. Not sure what criteria will be used; some teams haven’t played in a while:

— 8-1 Villanova is a top 10 team; they haven’t played since December 23
— 7-1 Saint Louis hasn’t played a league game yet; they haven’t played since December 23.

When the bubble teams come more into focus, it’ll be fun to see how their resumes contrast.

8) College basketball upsets this weekend:
— Northern Arizona (+12) 62, Montana 58
— California (+11.5) 72, Utah 63
— Butler (+9) 70, Creighton 66
— Wm & Mary (+9) 69, Drexel 64 (Sunday)
— Georgia (+7.5) 78, Ole Miss 74
— IUPUI (+7) 65, Northern Kentucky 63

7) There are couple of very bad basketball teams in the Mountain West; so far this season, favorites of 15+ points are 8-1-1 ATS in conference games.

6) Odd Fact of the Day: Starting lineup for the Wisconsin Badgers is older than the starting lineup for the NBA’s Chicago Bulls.

5) James Harden made his debut for the Brooklyn Nets Saturday night; he put up 32 points, 12 rebounds, 14 assists in the Nets’ 122-115 win over Orlando. Not a bad opening act.

4) Sunday will be Aaron Rodgers’ 5th NFC title game, but the first one played at Lambeau Field; Green Bay lost the conference championship in Santa Clara LY to the 49ers.

3) Los Angeles Chargers didn’t have to look far for their next coach; they hired Brandon Staley, who was the Rams’ defensive coordinator this past season. Staley is 38, was a coordinator for one season; he comes from the Vic Fangio coaching tree.

Curious who his offensive coordinator will be, seeing how Sean McVay runs Rams’ offense, so he’ll be poaching someone off another coaching staff.

2) Kansas City 22, Browns 17:
— Mahomes (concussion) was KO’d in 3rd quarter; Chad Henne finished up at QB.
— Browns lost a goal-line fumble with 1:34 in first half, which turned out to be damaging.
— Chiefs outgained Cleveland 438-308; they host the Bills Sunday night.

1) Tampa Bay 30, New Orleans 20:
— Saints are first team since ’86-’88 Bears to lose home playoff game 3 years in a row.
— Brees threw three INT’s; New Orleans was minus-4 in turnovers.
— Buccaneers go to Lambeau Field for the NFC title game Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

[SIZE=1]NHL JANUARY'S RECORD

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

01/17/2021 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
01/16/2021 11-9-0 55.00% +400 Detail
01/15/2021 7-3-0 70.00% +2300 Detail
01/14/2021 6-13-0 31.58% -3900 Detail
01/13/2021 4-6-0 40.00% -1250 Detail

TOTAL..........29-32-0.......47.54%.....-25.00