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**Udog** · 09-25-2020, 08:36 AM

Do all the good you can, by all the means you can, in all the ways you can, in all the places you can, at all the times you can, to all the people you can, as long as ever you can.

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Six interesting spreads for this week’s college games:
— Florida (-13.5, 57) @ Ole Miss
— Iowa State (-2.5, 44.5) @ TCU
— Mississippi State @ LSU (-16.5, 57)
— Tulane (-3.5, 54.5) @ Southern Mississippi
— Army @ Cincinnati (-13.5, 45.5)
— NC State @ Virginia Tech (-6.5, 56.5)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 201,959
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Friday's Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….

13) Teams that have already clinched playoff spots will be tweaking their lineups and pitching setups this weekend; A’s used Jesus Luzardo for three innings in relief Thursday, as they ready to maybe piggy-back him and Mike Fiers in Game 1 of the playoffs on Tuesday.

San Diego might not have Mike Clevinger (biceps) now, so Dinelson Lamet could get their Game 1 nod on Wednesday, which may shorten his stint on the mound in San Francisco tonight.

12) Cardinals 4, Brewers 2— Yadier Molina got his 2,000th hit, which is a lot, especially for a catcher; 32-year old Kwang-Hyun Kim is 3-0, 1.62 in his first season of American baseball.

11) Astros 12, Rangers 4— Texas is 13-10 in its new domed stadium when the roof is closed; they’re 0-4 when the roof is open, as it was in this game. Jose Altuve had three hits, three RBI in his best game of what has been a poor season.

10) Dolphins 31, Jaguars 13:
— Miami’s first three drives: 29 plays, 239 yards, 21 points.
— Fitzpatrick was 18-20 passing for 160 yards, two TD’s.
— Dolphins won four of last five visits to Jacksonville.

— Dolphins had a 12-yard advantage in starting field position.
— Miami converted 7-13 on 3rd down, Jaguars 3-10.
— Last 4+ years, Jaguars are 6-10 ATS as a home favorite.

9) Indians 5, White Sox 4— Cleveland sweeps a 4-game series, has won seven of last eight games- they trail Pale Hose by a game, Twins by two games in AL Central. All three teams are going to make the playoffs.

8) Lakers 114, Nuggets 108 (LA leads 3-1)
— Third straight series Denver has trailed 3-1.
— James/Davis combined to shoot 28 foul shots; Denver shot 23.
— Denver subs were a combined minus-29 in 82:00.

7) Pac-12 is going to play football starting November 6; they’ll have their conference title game December 18. If they’re smart, Pac-12 will play some weeknight games; won’t be much else going on sports-wise during the week in November.

6) UAB 42, South Alabama 10— Blazers racked up 509 yards, converted 10-16 third down plays and led 28-10 at halftime- UAB averaged 11.4 yards per pass attempt.

5) Was bummed out when I found out this week that the Starbucks closest to my house closed down; used to stop in there for a hot chocolate and a slice of lemon pound cake- they have great lemon pound cake.

I’ve never had coffee, but hot chocolate on a chilly day is a good thing.

4) Congrats to the Toronto (Buffalo) Blue Jays, who clinched a playoff spot Thursday, despite playing their home games this season in their adopted hometown of Buffalo, where you can smelll Cheerios being made in the factory beyond the centerfield fence.

3) You know a guy is a sketchy prospect when he throws a no-hitter, and still doesn’t get picked up in our 14-team fantasy league, where each team has 28 players on his roster.

Cubs’ Alec Mills allowed eight runs in 9.2 IP in his two starts since throwing a no-hitter in Milwaukee September 13. For the season, he is 5-5, 4.48 in 11 starts.

2) Robinson Cano bunted for a hit against Washington’s shift in the 6th inning Thursday; it was his first bunt basehit since 2013.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
AL East: Tampa Bay, New York
AL Central: Minnesota, Chicago
AL West: Oakland, Houston
AL wild cards: Cleveland, Toronto

NL East: Atlanta, Miami
NL Central: Chicago, St Louis
NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
NL wild cards: Cincinnati, San Francisco

**Udog** · 09-25-2020, 08:49 AM

27TAMPA BAY -28 DALLAS
DALLAS are 24-13 ATS (15.4 Units) against good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game in the current season.

NHL
Dunkel

Friday, September 25

Tampa Bay @ Dallas

Game 27-28
September 25, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
11.984
Dallas
12.896
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1
3
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-155
5
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+135); Under

NHL
Long Sheet

Friday, September 25

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TAMPA BAY (59-26-0-7, 125 pts.) vs. DALLAS (51-34-0-8, 110 pts.) - 9/25/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 22-15 ATS (+4.9 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 15-11 ATS (+28.1 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
DALLAS is 273-180 ATS (+43.9 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
DALLAS is 33-25 ATS (+4.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DALLAS is 18-13 ATS (+33.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
TAMPA BAY is 121-57 ATS (+22.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 63-26 ATS (+18.9 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 24-10 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
DALLAS is 39-56 ATS (-36.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 6-3 (+1.9 Units) against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 6-3-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.9 Units)

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NHL

Friday, September 25

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Trend Report
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Tampa Bay @ Dallas
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

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**Udog** · 09-25-2020, 09:49 AM

Stanley Cup Game 4 Odds - Stars vs. Lightning
Matt Blunt

Game 4 - Tampa Bay at Dallas

Playoffs: Stanley Cup Finals
Date: Friday, September 25, 2020
TV-Time: NBC, 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Rogers Place
Location: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Wasn't able to get there with the Stars in Game 3, as it was another case where one really bad frame (it was the 2nd period in Game 3) really did them in.

Dallas was outshot 21-4 in that middle frame, and a 2-1 deficit after one period ballooned into a 5-1 hole that they just weren't going to come back from. It's just the second time in these playoffs that the Stars have found themselves trailing in a series – they were down 2-1 to Calgary in the first round as well – and that Game 4 saw the Stars escape with a 5-4 OT victory.

Can the same type of magic happen again for Dallas? Or will Tampa put this thing away quickly now that Stamkos is back and he's already found his way to the scoresheet?

The score sheets may only look like Tampa's benefited from two very strong periods in this series, but for the most part in all three games they've controlled and dictated the play.

It's been impressive to say the least, seeing the Lightning come into the series as the prohibitive favorite and play like they deserved that chalk and praise through the majority of the first three games.

Seeing the Lightning play like that, and re-inserting Stamkos into things and not missing a beat in Game 3 has got me really hesitant to continue backing Dallas as strongly in this series, although I do still believe the Stars win at least one more game in this series.

But being in the position with Dallas futures already out there, any play on the side is going to be Dallas or nothing in general, but for Game 4 it looks to be best to stay on the sidelines there.

That being said, if the Stars are to say win Game 4, or even a Game 5 to stay alive, what is their best path to get there?

Should they sit back like they did in the final period of Game 1, just squatting on the lead they built? They tried sticking with that out of the gates in Game 2 and got blown out early.

Should they go out and battle guns blazing with the Lightning, trying to outscore them in higher scoring 4-3 or 5-4 type games like they did vs Colorado? That was the only other time Dallas lost twice in a row in these playoffs in that series (Games 5 and 6), and it was in the next game that the Stars came away with a 5-4 OT win. Not to mention that a 5-4 OT score was the exact result in that Calgary series when the Stars last trailed in a playoff series in the bubble.

All that being said, maybe outside of the ultra longshot in calling the exact result to be a 5-4 Dallas win in OT in Game 4 vs Tampa, I believe Dallas has to settle on taking the guns blazing route and do their best to match Tampa goal for goal.

The Lightning are probably a bit more sound defensively then Colorado was, and definitely have the better netminder, so it's not going to be easy for the Stars, but that's the way they've got to approach things. Believing they need at least 4 goals to win.

If they get four and Khudobin stands on his head for them great, but all that is a long winded way of saying the best bets on these games going forward is likely seeing the 'over' come in another time or two.

Dallas has no shot at trying to win three of four games in a low-scoring 2-1 or 3-1 fashion, and who knows, maybe Khudobin's magical run in these playoffs has finally hit a wall.

The Stars realize they've got to bury the chances they do come up with now, because Tampa's going to threaten at least three goals every night.

Not sure who ends up on top here, but the final score is at least 4-2 for one of them.

Announcement

Friday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 9/25

Friday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 9/25

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