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**Udog** · 09-23-2020, 09:26 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Six interesting spreads for this Week 3 NFL games:
— Panthers @ LA Chargers (-6.5, 44)
— Lions @ Arizona (-6, 54.5)
— Buccaneers (-6, 43.5) @ Denver
— Cowboys @ Seattle (-5, 55.5)
— Packers @ New Orleans (-3, 51.5)
— Chiefs @ Baltimore (-3.5, 53.5)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 200,641
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: Mid-week musings………

13) LA Chargers and head coach Anthony Lynn may have to have a conversation soon; he seems committed to Tyrod Taylor being the Chargers #1 QB, but fact of the matter is, rookie Justin Herbert was the 6th player taken in last spring’s draft- they’ve got a lot of $$$ tied up in him, and he looked good against the Chiefs Sunday, so he will be the starter, and probably soon.

Recent QB’s taken in the top 10 of the draft and when they first started:
2020:
— Joe Burrow— started Weeks 1-2
— Justin Herbert— started Week 2, but because of injury
— Tua Tagovailoa— hasn’t played yet

2019:
— Kyler Murray— started all 16 games
— Daniel Jones— started 12 games

2018:
— Baker Mayfield— started 13 games
— Sam Darnold— started 13 games
— Josh Allen— started 11 games
— Josh Rosen— started 13 games

2017:
— Mitch Trubisky— started 12 games
— Patrick Mahomes— started one game

Odds are the Chargers aren’t going to let Herbert sit on the bench all year.

12) Unusual situation this weekend, with the 49ers playing back/back games in New Jersey, especially when they had a lot of injuries against the Jets last week and complained about the “sticky” turf at MetLife Stadium.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t play in the 2nd half after spraining his ankle; he’s expected to play this week.

49ers are staying/practicing at the Greenbrier resort in West Virginia this week; its pretty nice there- golfer Nick Faldo owns a home there.

11) Speaking of turf, the Las Vegas Raiders play home games on natural grass, which is wheeled outside brand-new Allegiant Stadium when the Raiders aren’t playing there.

When UNLV plays its home games in, they’ll play on an artificial turf field that is on the floor of the new stadium. Playing on artificial turf is cheaper than maintaining a pristine grass field.

10) Jacob deGrom has been the ace of my fantasy baseball team for a few years now; I was watching him pitch Monday night and I wondered if pitchers got queasy when they saw certain umpires calling balls and strikes when they pitched.

So I looked up deGrpm’s record and came up with umpires who he excelled with, and also some where things didn’t go so well;

Umpires he likes to see:
— Ron Kulpa 2-0, 0;66 four starts
— Paul Mauert 3-0, 0.75 four starts
— Mark Ripperger 2-0, 1.64 three starts
— Lance Barrett 2-0, 0.48 three starts
— Jeff Nelson 3-0, 1.90 four starts

Umpires he’d rather not see:
— Tom Hallion 1-2, 6.87 four starts
— Mike Muchlinski 1-2, 7.98 three starts
— John Tumpane 0-3, 3.68 five starts

9) Two additional things about pitchers/umpires:
a) Next year, when things go back to 162 games, we’ll do more on our daily write-ups about umpires, getting back to the way we’ve always done things.

b) In October/November, when things get slow again before the college hoop/NBA re-starts, I’ll do a deeper dive into pitchers and umpires. Lot of good information in that database.

8) Since the Tampa Bay Rays started using an opener, a relief pitcher throwing the first inning or so, they’ve gone 64-41 in games where they used one. They do things differently, but it sure does work.

7) Nuggets 114, Lakers 106 (LA leads 2-1):
— Nuggets shot 55% from the floor for the game.
— Denver’s four subs were a combined +16.
— Lakers’ three starters other than Davis/James scored a combined 20 points.
— To oversimplify, Denver looked like the much hungrier team in this game.

6) Unusual situation in Anaheim, where SS Andrelton Simmons opted out of the rest of the season with six days to go, with the Angels still alive (though barely) for a playoff spot. The team was taken completely by surprise.

Simmons is a free agent after the season; this would lead you to believe that he has zero desire to re-sign with the Halos.

5) Chicago Bulls hired Billy Donovan as their new coach, which has to make give a lot of college coaches reasons to exhale— he would’ve been a highly sought after college coach.

I’m curious if Donovan would’ve been a strong candidate for the Knicks/Nets if he became available before those jobs were filled— Donovan grew up on Long Island.

4) Denver Broncos signed QB Blake Bortles to back up Jeff Driskel while Drew Lock nurses his injuries. Lock is expected to miss 3-4 weeks.

3) Cubs’ SS Javy Baez and Twins’ P Jose Berrios are married to sisters; they faced each other in the last two All-Star games, but until last Sunday night, they had never faced each other in a regular season game. Baez went 0-4 Sunday night, in a game Berrios won 4-0.

2) It is very early in this truncated college football season, but so far, home favorites in conference games are 1-5 ATS. Home underdogs are 2-2.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
AL East: Tampa Bay, New York
AL Central: Chicago, Minnesota
AL West: Oakland, Houston
AL wild cards: Cleveland, Toronto

NL East: Atlanta, Miami
NL Central: Chicago, St Louis
NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
NL wild cards: Cin/Mil/SF

**Udog** · 09-23-2020, 09:30 AM

25TAMPA BAY -26 DALLAS
DALLAS are 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread in the current season.

NHL
Dunkel

Wednesday, September 23

Tampa Bay @ Dallas

Game 25-26
September 23, 2020 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
12.602
Dallas
13.779
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1
3
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-160
5
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+140); Under

NHL
Long Sheet

Wednesday, September 23

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TAMPA BAY (58-26-0-7, 123 pts.) vs. DALLAS (51-33-0-8, 110 pts.) - 9/23/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 51-41 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 14-9 ATS (+3.0 Units) when playing in a neutral arena this season.
DALLAS is 25-16 ATS (+8.2 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
DALLAS is 33-24 ATS (+5.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DALLAS is 20-16 ATS (+3.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
TAMPA BAY is 120-57 ATS (+21.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 62-26 ATS (+17.9 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 23-10 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
DALLAS is 39-55 ATS (+110.5 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 5-3 (+0.9 Units) against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 5-3-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.9 Units)

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NHL

Wednesday, September 23

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Trend Report
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Tampa Bay @ Dallas
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

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**Udog** · 09-23-2020, 11:48 AM

Stanley Cup Game 3 Odds - Stars vs. Lightning
Matt Blunt

Game 3 - Tampa Bay at Dallas

Playoffs: Stanley Cup Finals
Date: Wednesday, September 23, 2020
TV-Time: NBCSN, 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Rogers Place
Location: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Under normal circumstances this would be a 1-1 series tie with Dallas going home and I think in any scenario it's still something I'd take being on the Stars for the series.

The only advantage here for Dallas is getting last change, and given that they are 1-2 SU in these playoffs in those initial games with the last change, it hasn't been all that advantageous for them.

Two outright losses and needing OT to knock off the Knights last round. Not exactly the best track record but the price makes up for it, and any underdog is always going to have some flaws.

But really, if I'm the Stars, I'm frustrated we dropped Game 2, but more because it was the same old mistake cropping up for them: one bad stretch of hockey – a period or less – that buries them. This time it was the 1st period that saw a undisciplined period turn into a 3-0 hole. They had that awful 1st period in Game 5 of that series with Colorado, an awful final eight minutes or so in Game 3 of that series too, and one bad 2nd period in their only loss to Vegas (Game 2) last round.

There was no sitting back being timid after that 1st period went awry for the Stars, and they looked the better team for the majority of the rest of that Game 2 loss to Tampa. You can't blame them for not putting complete 60-minute efforts together on a nightly basis, but had they not had some of those awful periods and ultimately flipped a few of those games in their favor, we'd be talking about one of the best all-time playoff runs by a team that there ever has been.

For whatever reason they let the 3rd period of Game 1 carry over to the beginning of Game 2 and paid the price for it. A lesson this team is all too familiar with in these playoffs.

Khudobin's already got part time residence in the opposition's head for how often he's stolen games for the Stars in these playoffs, and as long as the guys in front of them can piece together a full 60 minute effort, I still don't believe these prices are where they should be.

The Stars went 2-0 SU off a loss vs Calgary, 2-1 SU off a loss vs Colorado, and 1-0 SU off their loss to Vegas.

That's a 5-1 SU run in this role for a team that clearly understands how to make adjustments and work their perceived advantages from there. We saw it from the 1st intermission last game when the Stars to a 14-6 deficit in the shot department after 20 minutes and went 18-5 in shots the other way the following 20 minutes.

Dallas is a team that's just so tough to put away, and one you don't want to be trying to catch up on late. That's always going to be a great profile for any underdog in the line.

The Stars have been through tough results like that in those prior series to fully understand how to not let that bad 1st period in Game 2 spiral into a 2-1 series hole.

They find a way to grab yet another series lead as the prohibitive underdog.

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Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 9/23

Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 9/23

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