Announcement

**Udog** · 09-04-2020, 09:13 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Teams that were worst in college football in turnover margin last year:
-15— Akron, New Mexico, New Mexico State
-13— Rutgers, NC State
-12— Kansas
-11— Central Michigan, Colorado State, Duke, Hawai’i, Southern Miss
-10— Northwestern, USC

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 186,392
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Wrapping up a fun summer night

13) We start today with a movie review…….

The Way Back stars Ben Affleck as a guy (Jack Cunningham) who was a high school basketball star who walked away from the game rather than play in college; he got married, had a kid, but then his 8-year old son died of cancer, and he developed a drinking problem that ruined his marriage.

The movie starts with people from his old high school asking Jack Cunningham to come back to his old school to coach the basketball team; the previous coach had fallen ill. Reluctant at first, he takes the job and after a slow start, the team begins to turn it around.

This is a good movie because there is some laughter and some darkness; Jack Cunningham not only drinks a lot, he curses even more, much to the chagrin of the team’s chaplain. Basketball scenes in this movie are very well done.

This movie is making the rounds on HBO this month; it is worth your time.

12) Watching this movie, I was reminded that I once rebounded for a guy who made 126 foul shots in a row- seriously, he did.

I was student manager of our basketball team in college; rebounding for guys was part of my job, actually one of the best parts, but not when a guy makes 126 in a row and won’t stop until he misses one. I was hungry and wanted to go have dinner; tried throwing him a couple bad passes to get him off his mark, but that didn’t work.

Very impressive display of shooting by a guy who never played a significant minute for us; all he could do was shoot. We had a really good team, which made my job a lot more fun.

11) This week the Braves played in Fenway Park:
— Tuesday, Marcell Ozuna hit three homers.
— Wednesday, Adam Duvall hit three homers.

I was really surprised by this, but this was the first time EVER that teammates hit 3+ homers in consecutive games.

10) Defending World Series champion Washington Nationals are 12-23 this year, are headed nowhere; last year, they were 19-31 after 50 games, but they had a whole summer to bounce back, plus they had Rendon and a healthy Strasburg.

You can start to sense that reality has set in for a few of these terrible teams (Nationals, Red Sox, Pirates, Angels); they don’t have enough pitching to compete in such a compressed season. Will be interesting to see how many changes teams make this winter.

9) Arizona Diamondbacks were the last team to play an extra inning game under the new rules; they lost to the Dodgers in extra frames Wednesday night.

Last two years, with the new rule being used in the minor leagues, 73% of extra inning games ended after the first extra inning, whether it be the 8th or 10th inning. The two years before that, only 45% of extra inning games had ended in the first extra frame.

8) As of Wednesday night, seven major league teams still didn’t have a sacrifice bunt this season. One of the basic tenets of the analytics movements is not to make an out on purpose, and with pitchers not batting anymore, that is becoming the norm.

7) Mets have been outscored 51-28 in the first two innings of games this season.

6) Unusual stat; since 2014, New Orleans Saints are 58-38 SU in regular season games, but only 15-25-1 ATS as a home favorite. I would’ve thought they fared better at home.

5) Bronx Bombers are 20-16 this year; 2-8 vs Tampa Bay, 3-3 against the Mets, 15-5 against everyone else. Lot of their games with the Mets were really interesting; all six were decided by 3 or fewer runs.

4) South Alabama 29, Southern Miss 21:
— Jaguars were 12.5-point underdogs; it was their first road win in three years.
— USA quarterback Desmond Trotter is Ozzie Newsome’s grandson.
— Frank Gore Jr is a freshman RB for USM; his dad is still playing in the NFL.

3) Raptors 104, Celtics 103 (Boston leads 2-1)
— OG Anunoby drained a 3 at the buzzer to keep the series interesting.
— Raptors were down 10 at the half; huge win for them.
— Toronto was +12 with Siakam in the game; minus-11 in the 10:00 he sat out.
— Jayson Tatum was only 5-18 from the floor.

2) Clippers 120, Nuggets 97 (LA leads 1-0)
— Nuggets haven’t recovered from the Utah series yet.
— Leonard scored 29 points in 32:00 for the Clippers.
— Clippers shot 57% from the floor, unusually good for an NBA game.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
AL East- Tampa Bay, NY/Tor
AL Central- Chicago, Cleveland
AL West- Oakland, Houston
AL Wild Cards- Minnesota, Tor/NY

NL East- Atlanta, Philadelphia
NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
NL Wild Cards- Miami, Colorado

**Udog** · 09-04-2020, 09:17 AM

NHL public betting, odds movement September 4
Patrick Everson

Alex Tuch and the Golden Knights look to avoid a complete collapse after blowing a 3-1 series lead against the Canucks. DraftKings has Vegas a -230 favorite for Friday night's Game 7.

NHL betting odds will surely get a jolt from customers for a fabulous Friday of playoff hockey, with Game 7s in both Western Conference semifinal series. The Vancouver Canucks aim to complete a comeback from a 3-1 series deficit to the Vegas Golden Knights, and the Colorado Avalanche look to turn that same trick against the Dallas Stars.

DraftKings Sportsbook provided insights on NHL opening odds and early odds movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s contests.

NHL odds movement

Vegas was rolling through the Western Conference semis when Jacob Markstrom was in goal for Vancouver. The Knights grabbed a 3-1 series lead, tallying 13 total goals in the three wins. But Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko was stifling in Games 5 and 6, with Vegas notching just one goal in those two games, getting pounded 4-0 in Thursday’s Game 6.

Now, the Golden Knights – Stanley Cup favorites heading into this series and even more so with a 3-1 lead – are in lump-in-the-throat mode. Still, DraftKings Sportsbook opened Vegas -235 late Thursday night, with Vancouver +200, and the odds quickly ticked to -230/+195.

Colorado, favored to win its best-of-7 series against Dallas, found itself down 3-1 through four games, but rallied to tie the series at 3. The Avalanche rolled 4-1 in Game 6, and DraftKings opened Colorado -132 for Game 7, then moved to -137, with Vancouver +118.

Both of Friday’s games are in the Edmonton bubble, setting the table for the Western Conference finals. Stars-Avalanche is a 4 p.m. ET faceoff, followed by Knights-Canucks at 9 p.m. ET.

NHL public betting

The Consensus, often indicative of public betting patterns, showed early support for Colorado. As of late Thursday night, the Avalanche were drawing 68 percent of early picks against the Stars.

**Udog** · 09-04-2020, 09:21 AM

3DALLAS -4 COLORADO
DALLAS are 18-10 ATS (10.2 Units) against good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game in the current season.

1VANCOUVER -2 VEGAS
VANCOUVER is 35-23 ATS (17 Units) against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game in the current season.

NHL
Long Sheet

Friday, September 4

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VANCOUVER (46-32-0-7, 99 pts.) vs. VEGAS (49-28-0-8, 106 pts.) - 9/4/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 46-39 ATS (+86.6 Units) in all games this season.
VANCOUVER is 58-49 ATS (+117.0 Units) in road games on Friday nights since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 16-9 ATS (+25.8 Units) after a division game this season.
VANCOUVER is 10-6 ATS (+18.2 Units) when playing in a neutral arena this season.
VANCOUVER is 18-10 ATS (+7.2 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
VANCOUVER is 171-153 ATS (+339.7 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 24-19 ATS (+46.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VANCOUVER is 15-11 ATS (+29.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
VEGAS is 95-79 ATS (+219.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 11-5 (+0.2 Units) against the spread versus VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
VEGAS is 11-5-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.4 Units)

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DALLAS (45-31-0-8, 98 pts.) vs. COLORADO (51-24-0-9, 111 pts.) - 9/4/2020, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 2-7 ATS (-9.0 Units) on Friday nights this season.
DALLAS is 84-84 ATS (+189.2 Units) in road games revenging a home loss versus opponent since 1996.
DALLAS is 271-180 ATS (+57.0 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
DALLAS is 241-166 ATS (+37.5 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.
DALLAS is 53-47 ATS (+3.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 10-10-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
12 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.0 Units)

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NHL

Friday, September 4

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Trend Report
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Dallas @ Colorado
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games
Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Colorado's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing Dallas

Vancouver @ Vegas
Vancouver
Vancouver is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Vancouver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Vegas
Vegas is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
Vegas is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games

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**Udog** · 09-04-2020, 10:58 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Friday, September 4

Dallas @ Colorado

Game 3-4
September 4, 2020 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
12.666
Colorado
11.789
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
-135
6
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+115); Over

Vancouver @ Vegas

Game 1-2
September 4, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vancouver
12.719
Vegas
13.592
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vegas
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vegas
-230
6
Dunkel Pick:
Vegas
(-230); Under

Announcement

Friday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 9/4

Friday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 9/4

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