Announcement

**Udog** · 08-24-2020, 07:52 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

MLB leaders in OPS, minimum 70 AB’s:
1.122— Nelson Cruz, Minn
1.119— Bryce Harper, Phil
1.115— Luke Voit, NYY
1.095— Brandon Lowe, TB
1.077— Jesse Winker, Cin
1.074— Mike Yastzremski, SF

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 175,380
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Monday's Den: Thoughts on basketball, and other stuff……..

Allow me a minute here to pat myself on the back; I don’t do this very often, but in this case, I think it is deserved.

On one of the NBA games Sunday, they were talking about plus-minus as a mainstream stat and I felt ten feet tall. There was a time a long time ago where plus-minus got me laughed at.

My work study job in college (1977-82) was keeping stats for football/basketball games for our college team at Albany. My real love is basketball, and I’ve always tried to come up with different metrics to help the coaches I worked for measure their team. In short, I was a basketball nerd way before it was a profitable enterprise. My timing hasn’t always been the greatest.

One day we were driving back from a football game, and I was thinking about the upcoming basketball season; someone in the car was talking about hockey, and mentioned a player’s plus-minus. Plus/minus is the score of the game while that player was on the ice, minus any goals scored while someone had a man advantage. Plus/minus was and still is a big NHL stat.

Suddenly it dawned on me; why not do this for basketball? Why couldn’t each player have his own plus/minus for each game? So I started doing it; as far as I knew, no one else in America was using this as a basketball stat. Of course, I was wrong.

Philadelphia 76ers had a legendary stat guy named Harvey Pollack; he was doing plus-minus too, as part of his media package for 76ers games. I regret that I never got to meet Mr Pollack; I couldn’t learned a lot from him.

For one individual game, plus/minus can be misleading, but over the course of a season, it is a telling stat. Plus/minus for player combos is also a really good metric; some guys just mesh well together, and should be on the floor at the same time. Others should not be.

(Side note: the guy who subs in for the best player often suffers in plus/minus, since he doesn’t get to play with the best player).

Some of the best stuff that has happened in my life revolved around my work with basketball teams and statistics; U of Albany, Schenectady HS, Guilderland HS. Being a nerd is more fun than it looks like from the outside.

Elsewhere……..
9) I keep weird hours; I’m watching Korean baseball Saturday night/Sunday morning and I see on Twitter where someone is posting pics of horses getting ready to work out at Saratoga. To them, it was already Sunday morning. To me, it was still Saturday night.

8) Neighbors across the street must’ve had a hall of a party Saturday; before I went off to bed around 6am, I look out the window and there is a black Corvette parked diagonally on the lawn across the street. Pretty nice car to be parked like that.

7) Major league baseball season is roughly half-over; we’re also a week away from the trade deadline. Blue Jays acquired DH-type Daniel Vogelbach from Seattle. Toronto is 13-13, tied for the second Wild Card slot.

6) Tampa Bay Rays have eight different pitchers with a save this season; they also have nine pitchers on the Injured List.

NBA playoff games (all Game 4’s):
5) Dallas 135, Clippers 133 OT (series 2-2)
— Tremndous game; Dallas wins after trailing by 21 at one point.
— Luka Doncic is 3rd player in NBA postseason history with a 40-point, 15-rebound, 10-assist game, joining Charles Barkley (1993) and Oscar Robertson (1963)
— Last three games, Paul George is 10-47 from the floor.

4) Toronto 150, Brooklyn 122 (Raptors win, 4-0)
— Game was 77-68 at halftime.
— Toronto’s subs scored 100 points in this game. Their subs.
— Nets can begin their coaching search now.

3) Boston 110, Philadelphia 106 (Celtics win 4-0)
— Sixers were down a hoop when Tobias Harris was knocked out of the game.
— Natives are restless in Philly; hard to imagine coach Brown keeping his job.
— Kemba Walker led the Celtics with 32 points.

2) Utah 129, Denver 127 (Jazz lead 3-1)
— First playoff game ever where both teams had a guy score 50+ points.
— Joe Ingels played 35:00, didn’t score a point, but also didn’t have a turnover; he was +8
— Jamal Murray made 9-15 on the arc, scored 50 points in a losing cause.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
AL East- New York, Tampa Bay
AL Central- Minnesota, Cleveland
AL West- Oakland, Houston
AL Wild Cards- Chicago, Tor/Balt

NL East- Miami, Atlanta
NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
NL Wild Cards- Colo/NYM/SF

**Udog** · 08-24-2020, 07:56 AM

NHL public betting, line movement for August 24
Patrick Everson

The Stars and Avalanche collide Monday night in Game 2 of their Western Conference semifinal series. Colorado was dealt a Game 1 upset, but Caesars has the Avalanche -160 Game 2 favorites.

NHL betting odds are on the board as conference semifinal action continues Monday in the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Colorado Avalanche meet the Dallas Stars in Game 2, while the New York Islanders and Philadelphia Flyers lift the lid on their best-of-seven series.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on NHL opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s contests.

NHL line movement

The Avalanche finished off the Arizona Coyotes in five games, including a pair of 7-1 romps in Games 4 and 5, so Colorado appeared primed for Game 1 against the Stars. But Dallas, a +143 underdog, had other ideas and notched a 5-3 win against -159 chalk Colorado.

Despite that upset, Caesars opened Game 2 at Avalanche -160/Stars +145, with no line movement as of Sunday evening. Monday’s faceoff is at 9:45 p.m. ET.

The Islanders knocked out the Washington Capitals in five games, while the Flyers needed six to take care of the Montreal Canadiens. Philadelphia opened a -120 Game 1 favorite at Caesars, with New York +105, and that line was stable Sunday night, as well, for a 7 p.m. ET start.

NHL public betting

The Consensus is often indicative of where the public money is flowing, and it appears bettors expect a bounce-back from the Avalanche. Colorado was landing 73 percent of early picks, through Sunday night.

Islanders-Flyers was closer to two-way, although modest underdog New York was drawing 60 percent of early Consensus plays.

**Udog** · 08-24-2020, 08:00 AM

1NY ISLANDERS -2 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 ATS (12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season in the current season.

3DALLAS -4 COLORADO
DALLAS are 16-7 ATS (10.6 Units) against good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game in the current season.

NHL
Long Sheet

Monday, August 24

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NY ISLANDERS (42-25-0-10, 94 pts.) vs. PHILADELPHIA (48-23-0-7, 103 pts.) - 8/24/2020, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-30 ATS (+79.7 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-8 ATS (+7.2 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 22-14 ATS (+22.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 22-16 ATS (+3.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 ATS (+22.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
NY ISLANDERS are 94-73 ATS (+16.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 11-4 ATS (+15.1 Units) in road games vs. division opponents this season.
NY ISLANDERS are 53-36 ATS (+14.4 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 16-11 ATS (+29.8 Units) in road games after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 17-10 ATS (+29.1 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 23-21 ATS (+52.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY ISLANDERS is 8-3 (+4.8 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NY ISLANDERS is 8-3-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
10 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+9.2 Units)

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DALLAS (43-28-0-8, 94 pts.) vs. COLORADO (48-22-0-9, 105 pts.) - 8/24/2020, 9:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 14-6 ATS (+6.7 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
COLORADO is 15-6 ATS (+7.1 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
DALLAS is 51-44 ATS (+4.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 4-12 ATS (-14.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 8-7-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
11 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+6.6 Units)

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NHL

Monday, August 24

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Trend Report
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NY Islanders @ Philadelphia
NY Islanders
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Islanders's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Islanders's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing NY Islanders
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Islanders

Dallas @ Colorado
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing Colorado
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Colorado's last 8 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games

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**Udog** · 08-24-2020, 10:08 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Monday, August 24

NY Islanders @ Philadelphia

Game 1-2
August 24, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Islanders
12.954
Philadelphia
11.541
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Islanders
by 1 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
-120
5
Dunkel Pick:
NY Islanders
(+100); Under

Dallas @ Colorado

Game 3-4
August 24, 2020 @ 9:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
13.942
Colorado
12.507
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
-165
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+145); Over

Announcement

Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 8/24

Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 8/24

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