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**Udog** · 08-02-2020, 08:33 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Odds to win the golf tournament in Memphis today:
+240— Brendan Todd
4-1— BH An, Rickie Fowler
9-2— Brooks Koepka
15-2— Justin Thomas
30-1— Matthew Fitzpatrick
40-1— Louis Oosthuizen, Webb Simpson

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 153,989
Please wear a mask when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Sunday's Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….

13) 34 years ago this weekend, I made my first-ever visit to Las Vegas; stayed at a motel across the street from Circus Circus. Drove in from Los Angeles with my sister. Here are some of the quick things I remember from that trip:

— There is a sign on the highway from Barstow to Las Vegas: “If you don’t turn your air conditioner off, your car will overheat” Alrighty then.
— It was 112 degrees when we drove onto the Strip.

12) I wanted to bet the Mets against the Montreal Expos; the guy at the counter looks at me and says “Nice pick, but the game started 90 minutes ago”. I had forgotten to change my watch to west coast time. Whoops.
— I did bet the Mets to win the World Series that weekend, so I can say that I won my first-ever bet in the desert.
— Went into a sporting goods store in the Forum shoppes; they had the hat of my every pro team up on the wall. My eyes lit up, and that was the moment when my hat collection started.

11) I was like Linda Blair in The Exorcist; my head was spinning around like a top. So much to see, so many numbers to consume. It was so damn hot, but it was definitely a different world than I was used to.
— We stayed around 12-14 hours, say several casinos, then drove back to LA in the middle of the night, when it had cooled off to 95 or so. Quite a day.

10) A’s 3, Mariners 2 (10)— Weird strategy by Seattle, very weird. Down a run but with a fast guy on 2nd and no one out in the 10th, their #2 hitter, tries to sacrifice on an 0-1 pitch, fouls it off, then looked like he was bunting for a hit on the 0-2 pitch, but he popped out to the pitcher.

Giving up an out when you’re down a run is weird, especially with a decent hitter up. Don’t get me wrong, I was glad they fouled it up, but it wasn’t good strategy. The extra inning rule needs to go after this season, but it is providing some interesting stuff to think about.

9) Braves 7, Mets 1— Freddie Freeman DH’d for only the third time in his career, which is weird since he’s been in the majors for 11 years now. Even playing for an NL team, you’d think he would’ve DH’s some in their games in AL ballparks.

8) Dodgers’ pitching ace Clayton Kershaw makes his 2020 debut Sunday in Arizona, on the same weekend that the Detroit Lions put Kershaw’s high school teammate Matthew Stafford on the COVID-19 list. This is why having an NFL season is going to be dicey; NFL quarterbacks are so valuable, a starter has to miss a few weeks/months, and that team is in the ashcan.

7) I’m an advocate of higher-seeded teams picking their opponents in the first round of the playoffs. It was done in the G League for a while; we do it in our fantasy baseball league.

Would make for a great TV show, when the #1 seed has to announce who they choose to play in the first round of the playoffs. Then #2 has to choose, and so on……

6) Raptors 107, Lakers 92— Kyle Lowry scored 33 points, grabbed 14 rebounds as Toronto beat the Lakers for the 11th straight time.

5) Pacers 127, 76ers 121— TJ Warren scored 53 points for Indiana, which was +18 in the 41:00 that Warren played, minus-12 in the 7:00 he sat out.

4) Angels 5, Astros 4 (10)- Halos had lost their previous 64 games when they trailed in the 9th inning or later.

3) Rhode Island mistakenly issued tax refund checks signed by Walt Disney and Mickey Mouse instead of the state treasurer and controller. Now, I could be Captain Obvious and call it a goofy thing to do, but I’d rather let you insert your own joke here.

2) RIP to the great actor Wilfred Brimley, who passed away this weekend at age 85; he had a great acting resume. I remember him most from The Firm, Tender Mercies and The Natural “I should’ve been a farmer” Tremendous career, distinctive voice. Rest in peace, sir.

1) St Louis-Milwaukee series was cancelled this weekend, then Brewers’ OF Lorenzo Cain opted out of playing anymore this season. Can’t say I blame him.

I love watching baseball, I’m enjoying these games, but the owners are putting the players at tremendous physical risk by forging ahead with this season. Part of me thinks we should just bag the whole thing and play again next year.

**Udog** · 08-02-2020, 08:34 AM

NHL public betting, line movement, sharp money for August 2
Patrick Everson

NHL betting odds are on the board and getting action for Sunday’s games inside the double NHL Bubble. Notable contests include the St. Louis Blues vs. the Colorado Avalanche and the Philadelphia Flyers vs. the Boston Bruins in a pair of round-robin matchups – contests among teams in the top four in each conference, to determine playoff seeding.

CG Technology risk analyst Dave Sharapan provided insights on NHL opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s contests. Covers will update this action report with NHL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the day.

NHL line movement

Defending Stanley Cup champion St. Louis and Colorado opened a -110 pick ‘em, and there’s been no movement at CG books. Likewise, there’s been no movement in the Flyers-Bruins tilt, with Boston -135 and Philadelphia +115.

Keeping with the theme, the Toronto Maple Leafs opened -155 and were still there Saturday night against the +135 Columbus Blue Jackets.

**Udog** · 08-02-2020, 08:40 AM

7COLUMBUS -8 TORONTO
COLUMBUS are 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.

11ARIZONA -12 NASHVILLE
NASHVILLE is 14-17 ATS (-11.5 Units) vs. losing teams in the current season.

13MINNESOTA -14 VANCOUVER
VANCOUVER is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) when playing 3 or less games in 10 days in the current season.

17PHILADELPHIA -18 BOSTON
PHILADELPHIA is 13-5 ATS (9.9 Units) against good passing teams - averaging 5 or more assists per game in the 2nd half of the year in the current season.

19ST LOUIS -20 COLORADO
COLORADO is 21-9 ATS (12.1 Units) in road games against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game in the current season.

NHL
Dunkel

Sunday, August 2

Arizona @ Nashville

Game 11-12
August 2, 2020 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
12.191
Nashville
10.642
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nashville
-125
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+105); Under

Philadelphia @ Boston

Game 17-18
August 2, 2020 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
11.735
Boston
13.340
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 1 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-135
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-135); Under

St. Louis @ Colorado

Game 19-20
August 2, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
10.348
Colorado
11.538
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
-110
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado
(-110); Under

Columbus @ Toronto

Game 7-8
August 2, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Columbus
10.437
Toronto
11.875
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 1 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-160
6
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-160); Under

Minnesota @ Vancouver

Game 13-14
August 2, 2020 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
11.223
Vancouver
9.914
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vancouver
-120
6
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+100); Over

NHL
Long Sheet

Sunday, August 2

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COLUMBUS (33-22-0-15, 81 pts.) at TORONTO (36-25-0-9, 81 pts.) - 8/2/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLUMBUS is 27-20 ATS (+48.5 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 11-2 ATS (+8.9 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 36-34 ATS (+75.4 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 40-34 ATS (-10.8 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 16-16 ATS (-6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
TORONTO is 17-19 ATS (-17.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 4-4 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-4-0 straight up against COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.7 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

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ARIZONA (33-29-0-8, 74 pts.) vs. NASHVILLE (35-26-0-8, 78 pts.) - 8/2/2020, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 35-34 ATS (+78.1 Units) in all games this season.
NASHVILLE is 5-11 ATS (-11.5 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 14-17 ATS (-12.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-4 (+1.8 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 4-4-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.9 Units)

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MINNESOTA (35-27-0-7, 77 pts.) vs. VANCOUVER (36-27-0-6, 78 pts.) - 8/2/2020, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 5-13 ATS (-9.7 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 71-80 ATS (+157.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 167-149 ATS (+364.4 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 21-13 ATS (+36.3 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 208-245 ATS (+494.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 18-14 ATS (+37.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 4-5 (+0.7 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 5-4-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.7 Units)

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PHILADELPHIA (41-21-0-7, 89 pts.) vs. BOSTON (44-14-0-12, 100 pts.) - 8/2/2020, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 49-28 ATS (+14.7 Units) in road games after shutting out their opponent in their previous game since 1996.
BOSTON is 227-250 ATS (-31.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
BOSTON is 21-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 41-28 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-6 ATS (+19.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 5-4 (+2.7 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 5-4-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.5 Units)

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ST LOUIS (42-19-0-10, 94 pts.) vs. COLORADO (42-20-0-8, 92 pts.) - 8/2/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 159-152 ATS (+319.1 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1996.
ST LOUIS is 27-17 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 59-38 ATS (+17.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 34-20 ATS (+12.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 9-4 (+4.9 Units) against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 9-4-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.2 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (32-30-0-8, 72 pts.) at EDMONTON (37-25-0-9, 83 pts.) - 8/3/2020, 10:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 5-4 (+1.6 Units) against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 5-4-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.7 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NHL

Sunday, August 2

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Trend Report
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Arizona @ Nashville
Arizona
Arizona is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Nashville
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Arizona's last 13 games when playing Nashville
Nashville
Nashville is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Nashville's last 13 games when playing Arizona

Philadelphia @ Boston
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

St. Louis @ Colorado
St. Louis
St. Louis is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Colorado's last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 8 games at home

Columbus @ Toronto
Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Columbus's last 5 games
Columbus is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games

Minnesota @ Vancouver
Minnesota
Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Vancouver's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Vancouver's last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota

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**Udog** · 08-02-2020, 08:56 AM

NHL Playoff Picks and Predictions for Sunday August 2
Matt Blunt

NHL Favorite
Best Bet

Matchup: Philadelphia vs. Boston
TV-Time: NBC, 3:00 p.m. ET
Boston -135

You can't take anything away from the run the Flyers went on during the final six weeks of the year before the stoppage, but that was a long time ago and I'm not sure we would even see the Flyers in one of these Top 4 spots had the stoppage occurred a week later.

Philadelphia has earned a ton of respect in the betting markets for all those tickets they cashed, but now they are back dealing with all the big boys – who are all healthy – and played high level of hockey for a longer period of time then just six weeks. That's what everyone remembers last though and it's created situation where a very good Bruins team is actually a little undervalued at this price.

Boston was one of the few teams to beat Philly during their best run (2-0 win on March 10th), and lost two shootouts in the two meetings prior. That's random luck I'm hoping is owed to the Bruins now that we are here, as they should be closer to 50 cent favorites in my opinion.

NHL Underdog
Best Bet

Matchup: Arizona vs. Nashville
TV-Time: USA, 2:00 p.m. ET
Arizona +110

When you like an underdog like the Coyotes to win the series in a four or five-game set as I do, you might as well try to pounce on them to jump out to a 1-0 series lead as well. Arizona's got all the youthful legs you'd want for a team in the opener of a restart like this, and the Coyotes did outscore Nashville in total goals in their two meetings 7-5.

The Predators may have much more playoff success in their lineup, but that franchise has fed off the home crowd energy in playoff games for years. It's helped them get by some more talented teams in that span too. But poor postseason play away from that arena and noise has had the Predators bow out to opponents they shouldn't have as well when they were at their best, and this does feel like another one of those series for Nashville fans.

NHL Over-Under Total
Best Bet

Matchup: Minnesota vs. Vancouver
TV-Time: NBCSN, 10:30 p.m. ET
Minnesota/Vancouver Over 5.5

Nothing to lose and no real expectations for both sides should make this series one where you've got both sides playing great hockey because they are loose.

Minnesota and Vancouver are two teams that never took much serious action in any of the futures markets for this restart and rightfully so. The winner of this series likely gets bounced next round or shortly thereafter, and these teams are self-aware enough to know that.

So why not free wheel things with two goalies that are known to spend time on both sides of streaky play, and if we can catch both of them on the rusty side in this opener, a 4-3 type game is definitely in the cards. Not that it means much now, but Vancouver did close out things on a 9-2 O/U run as it was heading into the stoppage, as 4-3 games were something they became quite comfortable in.

Willing to back that not much changes in the opener. Especially with the increased chance of sloppy play for both defensive units after such the long layoff.

NHL Prop
Best Bet

Matchup: Columbus vs. Toronto
TV-Time: NHL Network, 8:00 p.m. ET
Over 1.5 goals in the 1st period (-130)

Toronto is a team I've got high hopes for in this series and beyond, but for them to start sniffing that potential, it really feels like they'll need something to go right early on.

Whether that's them coming out and blitzing the Jackets with their speed to pot a couple of early goals and clear this number themselves, or simply dominate the play from the get-go, the Leafs have a opportunity to play most of this playoff series “from in front” and that's something they haven't been afforded in past years.

Part of establishing dominance early is grabbing one of those early goals, but at the same time this is still the Leafs we are talking about, and they could just as easily give up two tallies in the first 20 minutes with some defensive miscues that can plague this team during the best of times.

Finally, with the last time these two played resulting in a 2-2 score after the opening frame, the historical precedent is there as well for this play to cash.

**Udog** · 08-02-2020, 10:59 AM

NHL picks and predictions for Sunday, August 2
Rohit Ponnaiya

It feels weird to have NHL betting in August, but we're not complaining with plenty of great hockey games on tap for Sunday. We have our first round-robin contests of the postseason as the Bruins face the Flyers and the Blues take on the Avalanche, and we also have three qualifying round matchups in action including the Wild versus the Canucks at 10:30 p.m ET.

We focus on those three games as break down the odds and bring you our best NHL picks and predictions for Sunday, August 2.

Philadelphia Flyers vs Boston Bruins

In the first of two round-robin games on Sunday to determine Top-4 playoff seeding, the Bruins are favorites against the Flyers. Boston currently has some of the best odds to win the Stanley Cup but Philly was the hottest team in the league before COVID-19 hit.

The Flyers actually lost their last game before the break (against the Bruins), but prior to that had reeled off nine wins in a row. It's worth noting that seven of those nine victories came at Wells Fargo Center and the Flyers have barely stayed above .500 away from home this season.

It's no surprise then that 21-year-old Philly goalie Carter Hart has been incredible at home but brutal on the road, going 4-10-1 with a 3.81 GAA and a .857 save percentage. The Bruins have been excellent away from Boston, sporting a 22-10-3 record with a league-best goal differential of plus-26. Expect the playoff-tested Bruins to perform better on neutral ground and open their postseason with a win.

PREDICTION: Bruins ML (-135)

St. Louis Blues vs Colorado Avalanche

In the second round-robin game of the day, oddsmakers have the game set as a pick'em. Both teams had almost identical records and each won two games decisively at home in the head-to-head this season. While it might be hard to determine which team is better overall, it's much easier to see that Colorado has clearly been better this season — when it comes to playing in the second period.

The Avs had the most goals scored and the fewest goals allowed in the league during the second frame, giving them an incredible goal differential of plus-41 during that period. They also scored a total of eight second-period goals against the Blues in their last three meetings. Take Colorado to outscore St. Louis during the second period.

PREDICTION: Second period three-way Colorado (+160)

Minnesota Wild vs Vancouver Canucks

Of all the teams still left standing in the Western Conference, the Wild have allowed the most goals at 3.14 per game. And while Alex Stalock was better than Devan Dubnyk between the pipes this season, he looked shaky in Minnesota's last exhibition game, giving up three goals on 17 shots.

The Canucks were eighth in the league in goals scored and fourth in powerplay percentage and will be up against a Wild penalty kill that ranks near the bottom of the league. The Wild have been playing with a much more open style lately, averaging 3.59 goals per game over their last 22 contests. With the Over 9-2 in the Canucks last 11 games, we're backing it again.

PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-120)

Today's NHL betting card

Bruins ML (-135)
Second period three-way Colorado (+160)
Wild vs. Canucks Over 5.5 (-120)

Announcement

Sunday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 8/2

Sunday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 8/2

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