Announcement

**Udog** · 08-01-2020, 09:14 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

According to Forbes magazine, the six most valuable NFL franchises:
$5.5B— Dallas Cowboys
$4.1B— New England Patriots
$3.9B— New Jersey Giants
$3.8B— Los Angeles Rams
$3.5B— San Francisco 49ers
$3.45B— Chicago Bears

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 152,940
Please wear a mask when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Saturday's Den: Wrapping up the last day of July…….

13) Coming into Friday’s games, the batting average of major league teams was only .230, with four teams hitting under .200. No bueno.

30-man rosters may be playing into this; with so many more pitchers available, hitters aren’t facing the same pitchers very often, which makes hitting more difficult.

12) Friday’s St Louis-Milwaukee game was postponed; they’re hoping to play a twinbill on Sunday, which would be MLB’s first doubleheader with 7-inning games.

11) Someone posted on Twitter Friday that the Phillies aren’t going to Miami next week; they’re going to play two 2-game series with Bronx instead. That hasn’t been announced officially, but the person seemed pretty sure it was going to happen.

10) Braves 11, Mets 10— New York led 8-2 in 5th inning, but their bullpen gave up seven runs in four innings. Ex-Met Travis d’Arnaud had three hits, knocked in five runs and stole his first base since 2014. His bases-loaded double in the 8th inning was the game-winning hit.

9) Same umpiring crew has worked every Astro game this season, which is strange.

8) San Francisco Giants are platooning at six of nine positions; they’re probably the team that gets helped the most if the 30-man rosters stick around.

7) Detroit 7, Cincinnati 2— Most of the pundits on MLB Network touted Cincinnati as a playoff team, but they’re off to a 2-5 start, despite starting out against the Tigers/Royals.

6) White Sox 3, Royals 2- Kansas City started rookie Zach Bubic, who never pitched above A ball, though he did pitch in college at Stanford, which is good baseball. Young Mr Bubic allowed four baserunners, two earned runs in four IP, not a bad debut.

5) Aging Detroit star Miguel Cabrera is 4-30 starting off this season; three of the four hits were home runs.

4) Padres 8, Rockies 7- Fernando Tatis hit a dramatic 2-out, game-tying homer in the 9th inning, then Tommy Pham hit a 3-run tater a few minutes later to pull out an unlikely win in Denver.

3) NFL handed Antonio Brown an 8-game suspension for his antics, so even if someone signs him, he’ll have to hang around for half a season before he starts getting paid.

2) Rockets 153, Mavericks 149 OT— Game was 42-all after the first quarter, the first NBA game since November 6, 1990 (Houston-Denver) where both teams scored 40+ points in the first quarter.

Houston was 33-53 inside the arc, 19-48 outside the arc. Dallas made 21-50 on the arc, 8-10 by Trey Burke off the bench.

Down two with 0:03.7 left, Rockets’ James Harden missed a foul shot, but Houston’s Robert Covington tipped rebound in to tie the game. Friday night was loaded with lot of quality entertainment. Harden scored 49 points for the winners.

1) Mavericks have players from seven different countries on their roster.

**Udog** · 08-01-2020, 09:16 AM

NHL public betting, line movement, sharp money for Aug. 1
Patrick Everson

The fifth-seeded Pittsburgh Penguins face the No. 12 Montreal Canadiens in a five-game NHL qualifying-round series that opens Saturday. The Penguins are -165 Game 1 favorites at CG Technology.

NHL betting odds are back on the board, as the league moves into two bubbles and a modified Stanley Cup playoffs. Beginning Saturday, the Top-4 teams in each conference will play in a round-robin to determine seeding. The next eight teams in each conference will pair off in a best-of-five qualifying series.

CG Technology risk analyst Dave Sharapan provided insights on NHL opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Saturday’s contests. Covers will update this action report with NHL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the day.

NHL line movement

The Pittsburgh Penguins opened -165 at CG books for their qualifying-round opener against the Montreal Canadiens (+145) at the Eastern Conference bubble in Toronto. By Friday night, there was still no movement on that 8 p.m. ET faceoff.

The Chicago Blackhawks-Edmonton Oilers qualifying-round opener at the Western Conference bubble, in Edmonton, is a popular series at CG books. Edmonton opened -145 and is up to -155, with Chicago +135 for a 3 p.m. ET start.

An all-Canadian qualifying-round clash between the Winnipeg Jets and Calgary Flames is stable at Calgary -115/Winnipeg -105, and the Florida Panthers-New York Islanders qualifying opener is stuck at a -110 pick ‘em.

NHL sharp money

Professional dollars at CG books are on the Blackhawks-Oilers opener, according to risk analyst Dave Sharapan.

“The most-bet game of the day. Early sharp money laid -145 with the Oilers,” Sharapan said, noting the rest of Saturday’s games have no notable sharp action.

NHL public betting

Sharapan said Pros and Joes are on the same side for Blackhawks-Oilers, as the public is on Edmonton at -155.

“Bets on the Over also keep coming,” Sharapan said, alluding to the total of 6, which has Over priced at -120. “It looks like bettors think Edmonton will have a ‘home-bubble’ advantage.”

Sharapan said the Penguins have seen a “small trickle of bets” from the public. Panthers-Islanders is drawing two-way public action, but CG is heavy to parlays on New York in a 4 p.m. ET contest. And Jets-Flames isn’t catching anybody’s attention yet.

“The lowest-volume game in our books,” Sharapan said of the 10:30 p.m. ET nightcap. “Either the line is right or the two teams are just being overlooked. It is the late game, so I expect bets to be made closer to game time.

**Udog** · 08-01-2020, 09:17 AM

1MONTREAL -2 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 2-9 ATS (-10.1 Units) against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opp in the 2nd half of the year over the last 2 seasons.

3NY RANGERS -4 CAROLINA
NY RANGERS are 14-8 ATS (5.2 Units) in road games after a close loss by 1 goal in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.

5FLORIDA -6 NY ISLANDERS
NY ISLANDERS are 4-17 ATS (-14.6 Units) against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season in the current season.

9CHICAGO -10 EDMONTON
CHICAGO is 11-5 ATS (5.5 Units) in road games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days in the last 3 seasons.

15WINNIPEG -16 CALGARY
WINNIPEG is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games in the last 3 seasons.

NHL
Dunkel

Saturday, August 1

NY Rangers @ Carolina

Game 3-4
August 1, 2020 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Rangers
11.448
Carolina
10.574
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Rangers
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
-125
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Rangers
(+105); Over

Chicago @ Edmonton

Game 9-10
August 1, 2020 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
12.086
Edmonton
11.287
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Edmonton
-150
6
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+130); Under

Florida @ NY Islanders

Game 5-6
August 1, 2020 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida
11.228
NY Islanders
8.863
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Islanders
-115
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Florida
(-105); Over

Montreal @ Pittsburgh

Game 1-2
August 1, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montreal
9.096
Pittsburgh
12.150
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
-170
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-170); Over

Winnipeg @ Calgary

Game 15-16
August 1, 2020 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
12.532
Calgary
10.539
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Winnipeg
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
-115
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
(-105); Over

NHL
Long Sheet

Saturday, August 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MONTREAL (31-31-0-9, 71 pts.) vs. PITTSBURGH (40-23-0-6, 86 pts.) - 8/1/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 31-40 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all games this season.
MONTREAL is 50-81 ATS (+137.2 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 12-21 ATS (-11.7 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
MONTREAL is 3-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
PITTSBURGH is 27-35 ATS (-32.8 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 21-26 ATS (-17.0 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 43-44 ATS (-22.7 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 6-3 (+0.3 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 6-3-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY RANGERS (37-28-0-5, 79 pts.) vs. CAROLINA (38-25-0-5, 81 pts.) - 8/1/2020, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY RANGERS are 37-33 ATS (+74.9 Units) in all games this season.
NY RANGERS are 17-13 ATS (+34.4 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 14-8 ATS (+23.7 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
NY RANGERS are 29-27 ATS (+63.4 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 18-17 ATS (+40.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CAROLINA is 8-13 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
CAROLINA is 29-58 ATS (+101.3 Units) in road games after a 3 game unbeaten streak since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 10-2 (+12.4 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 10-2-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.2 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLORIDA (35-26-0-8, 78 pts.) vs. NY ISLANDERS (35-23-0-10, 80 pts.) - 8/1/2020, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY ISLANDERS are 87-71 ATS (+172.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 35-23 ATS (+0.0 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 129-139 ATS (+304.9 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent since 1996.
NY ISLANDERS are 3-11 ATS (+15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY ISLANDERS is 5-4 (+0.5 Units) against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
NY ISLANDERS is 5-4-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+6.2 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (32-30-0-8, 72 pts.) at EDMONTON (37-25-0-9, 83 pts.) - 8/1/2020, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 12-4 ATS (+6.8 Units) on Saturday games this season.
EDMONTON is 22-16 ATS (+38.1 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
EDMONTON is 16-7 ATS (+23.3 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
EDMONTON is 15-5 ATS (+9.9 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game this season.
CHICAGO is 9-5 ATS (+16.3 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
EDMONTON is 32-40 ATS (-8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 5-4 (+1.6 Units) against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 5-4-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.7 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNIPEG (37-28-0-6, 80 pts.) vs. CALGARY (36-27-0-7, 79 pts.) - 8/1/2020, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 15-24 ATS (-17.0 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
CALGARY is 127-125 ATS (+297.6 Units) in road games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
CALGARY is 20-13 ATS (+6.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 37-34 ATS (+71.9 Units) in all games this season.
WINNIPEG is 44-47 ATS (+114.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.
CALGARY is 8-15 ATS (-12.6 Units) after a division game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-3 (+0.7 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 4-3-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.2 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NHL

Saturday, August 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY Rangers @ Carolina
NY Rangers
NY Rangers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
NY Rangers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Carolina
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games at home

Chicago @ Edmonton
Chicago
Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Edmonton is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago

Florida @ NY Islanders
Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 5 games
Florida is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders
NY Islanders
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Islanders's last 5 games when playing at home against Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Islanders's last 8 games when playing Florida

Montreal @ Pittsburgh
Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Montreal's last 11 games
Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Montreal

Winnipeg @ Calgary
Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Winnipeg is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Calgary
Calgary is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing Winnipeg

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 08-01-2020, 09:18 AM

How to Bet the 2020 NHL Postseason
Matt Blunt

Handicapping the
NHL Playoffs

The NBA isn't the only league returning to a standard format schedule, as the NHL has decided to give every opening series one potential back-to-back spread around four other games with one day off before hand.

It can always be debated how important the numbers these teams put up before the stoppage really do matter, but games off a day's rest do make up the bulk of the schedule for NHL teams regularly, and we already have some matchups where some interesting betting angles can be approached with these numbers.

The lack of any real travel should dilute them somewhat, as the long layoff will as well, but there could be some nice spots that pop up early on in these series, and continuing throughout the playoffs.

So let's take a look at some of these potential scenarios as it will be here before you know it.

NHL Results
One Day of Rest

Best Records One Day of Rest

Colorado 27-14
Tampa Bay 25-16
Philadelphia 24-8
St. Louis 24-14
Calgary 24-20
Pittsburgh 21-9

Not surprising to see the majority of these teams being the ones in the round robin playing out for the Top 4 seeds, because like it was mentioned earlier, this one day off structure does typically make up the bulk of a team's schedule. Those are some strong numbers the Blues, Flyers, Lightning, and Avalanche put up and should be able to be put to use in the rounds going ahead.

Chances are this scheduling format stays consistent throughout the entire stay in the bubble, and if the teams that dominated in that situation do so again in the restart, likely the most futures units should be saved for teams that do currently reside in the Top 4, whether they are on this list or not.

What is really interesting in terms of the Pittsburgh Penguins case is that the first four games of their series with Montreal are all off a day off. The Canadiens were simply average in that role (19-18 SU) during the year, but were 3-9 SU in that spot as any sort of plus-money underdog and that's likely where they'll be all series.

Pittsburgh to win exactly 3-0 is sitting at +400 right now, while the Penguins to win 3-1 is +350. If you're liking Pittsburgh but aren't keen on paying the juice on them for the series, those are other options to go about it.

And should the series go to a decisive Game 5 on back-to-back nights, a series Penguins wager would still be live, but it would be sweating a 6-8 SU record in that role vs Montreal's 4-9 SU number.

A game Pittsburgh should win, but could also be a single game wagering option should your only pre-series wagers be on the Penguins in three or four and whiff on both. Keeping options open is never a bad thing.

Worst Records One Day of Rest

Chicago 10-25
Dallas 14-20
Edmonton 20-26

Chicago and Edmonton are matched up to begin their proceedings and Oilers fans are hoping that their young talent does in fact win out in the end. Chicago did tie Vegas for the most wins overall in games played on no rest this year with nine, and that back-to-back spot in this series would be a pressure packed Game 5.

Oilers fans do not want to see their team in that spot if possible – although Edmonton was 6-1 without rest this year - and their prices to win 3-0 (+450) and 3-1 (+375) are in the same ballpark that Pittsburgh's are.

Other notes for NHL games off a day of rest

Tampa Bay was a great 'over' bet after a day off at 25-13-3 O/U this year, while the Islanders were the best 'under' side to be on at 13-28 O/U. The Islanders path to success in this restart is going to have to start with their defensive play to begin with, and if they can shut down a Florida team that was predominantly an 'over' team after a rest day (20-14 O/U), who knows how far they could go.

Tampa Bay and their offense is always going to get plenty of love, but looking to back them 'over' the number in their round robin games out of the gate may not be a bad idea either. Washington was an 'over' team themselves in this role at 22-15, and while Boston was just 14-18 SU in their outings, that could also keep the total low enough to keep the 'over' side as the play.

The round robin games could have a more loose feel to them to begin with as they are used more for fitness rather than anything else, and the Lightning, Caps, Bruins and Flyers could all end up going that guns blazing route and let the seeds fall where they may.

NHL Results
Zero Days of Rest

Best Records
Zero Days of Rest

Vegas 9-2
Chicago 9-5
Tampa Bay 8-4
Edmonton 6-1

The first thought that tends to come to mind with Vegas atop that list is the Golden Knights owning an advantage formerly known as the “Vegas Flu” when opponents were in town. That is a term that will likely won't be around much longer, but this is Vegas playing without rest, not their opponent.

The Knights did the bulk of that damage on the road (7-1 SU without rest on the road), but did have the benefit of some luck going their way being 4-0 SU in games that needed OT or a shootout.

The suggestion that Vegas understands how to shut out distractions and get the best result does bode well for their future prospects in this restart and it will be interesting to see how things may line up for the Knights when their elimination games start.

Worst Records
Zero Days of Rest

Toronto 2-11
Arizona 2-10

Hands down the two worst records of any teams involved in this restart, and both better not find themselves down in their respective series when that no rest game pops up.

For Arizona it's Game 3 of their contest with Nashville, so get a split in the first two “road” games and all is forgotten about.

That Coyotes/Predators series has been one that's felt like it will need the distance to be decided since the format was laid out, and outside of this severe disadvantage for one game from a scheduling standpoint for Arizona, the historical scheduling numbers are pretty even between the two.

Toronto's back-to-back game is Game 4 with Columbus a team that was 6-7 SU in that role over the course of the year. The Leafs still have to view this unique campaign as one where they can get that playoff burden off their back early without having to deal with the likes of Boston or Tampa Bay, and maybe they end up flipping the script on this number and close out the series in four games.

Or, it Toronto's “throw away” game after grabbing a 2-1 series lead before they deal with a pressure-packed Game 5. That sounds about par for the course for your team doesn't it Leafs fans? Either way, Toronto trailing in that series going into a Game 4 might be time to start pricing out the possibility of being on the Blue Jackets to close things out then.

Other Notes for NHL games played without rest

The sample size is nowhere near the same, but to see a heavy 'under' team like the Islanders actually be 4-3 O/U in their games without rest is a tidbit of information to hold on to.

That back-to-back spot is Game 3 for the Islanders and Panthers, and it may end up being the only spot that does really look decent to 'over' bettors in that series. Dallas is another team that has had more 'overs' in back-to-back spots too (6-5 O/U).

Ultimately, these back-to-back numbers are helpful in isolating certain games, but these back-to-back spots are going to be so different that they might not mean nearly as much as the one day off numbers do. When games without rest happened during the year, there was some travel involved, and new lodgings to deal with, potentially a time zone and a whole bunch of other things.

None of that will be the case for this restart, and the later in a series these back-to-back games are the easier it may end up being pulling the trigger on the side that simply has looked the fittest through the first four games. Hard not to give that method of attack a thought as well.

**Udog** · 08-01-2020, 10:54 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Saturday, August 1

NY Rangers @ Carolina

Game 3-4
August 1, 2020 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Rangers
11.448
Carolina
10.574
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Rangers
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
-125
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Rangers
(+105); Over

Chicago @ Edmonton

Game 9-10
August 1, 2020 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
12.086
Edmonton
11.287
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Edmonton
-150
6
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+130); Under

Florida @ NY Islanders

Game 5-6
August 1, 2020 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida
11.228
NY Islanders
8.863
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Islanders
-115
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Florida
(-105); Over

Montreal @ Pittsburgh

Game 1-2
August 1, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montreal
9.096
Pittsburgh
12.150
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
-170
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-170); Over

Winnipeg @ Calgary

Game 15-16
August 1, 2020 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
12.532
Calgary
10.539
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Winnipeg
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
-115
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
(-105); Over

**Udog** · 08-01-2020, 11:30 AM

NHL Playoff Picks and Predictions for Saturday August 1
Matt Blunt

To be played in Toronto and Edmonton

NHL Favorite
Best Bet

Matchup: Winnipeg vs. Calgary
TV-Time: NBCSN, 10:30 p.m. ET

Favorite Pick: Calgary -130

The series price and this Game 1 line still feel rather disrespectful to a Calgary team that was the top seed in the West just a season ago. Calgary appears to be a team that the majority of the market could potentially be sleeping on.

The Jets are just too depending on their goalie doing all the heavy lifting for them, and should that go south early in this series, this series probably won't be a long one. The goaltending edge easily goes to the Jets though and that is the resistance that's found in this and the series lines.

But one rough playoff series last year and Calgary has gotten cast aside as a contender, as this year's team was bitten by a bit more bad luck in close games. But I remember a Tampa Bay team who was the #1 seed in the East last year and were actually out in the first round before the Flames. They aren't getting cast aside as a legitimate contender like the Flames are.

Calgary's much better then the current #8 spot suggests of them, and they ambush Hellebuyck with everything they got en route to a convincing Game 1 win.

NHL Underdog
Best Bet

Matchup: Florida vs. N.Y Islanders
TV-Time: NBCSN, 4:00 p.m. ET

Florida Panthers +100

Not sure there is a true “best” underdog do take on this opening slate, so I'll go with the one that the oddsmakers have currently tabbed as the most likely to actually win with the shortest price. The Panthers will have to get some strong goaltending in this entire series if they want to advance, and Bobrovsky's had a history in his career of stealing games with his play.

The Islanders are a squad I'm not sure has enough scoring to go really all that far in this restart, and while that's not specific to this single game, fading the Islanders as a team I don't believe will be long for the bubble stay is the general approach I'm going with in the opener.

NHL Over-Under Total
Best Bet

Matchup: Montreal vs. Pittsburgh
TV-Time: NBC, 8:00 p.m. ET

Montreal/Pittsburgh Over 5.5

On paper this series really does set up like it's Carey Price vs the Penguins attack, but Montreal's got some guys that can put the puck in the net too. The Habs also have next to nothing in terms of pressure on their shoulders as they really shouldn't be here playing postseason hockey, so why not be a free-wheeling, run-and-gun team because they're going to need it to win at least one game in this series.

No matter how sharp Price may be for Montreal – and after such a long layoff it's questionable he's even sharp at all – but he'll likely face plenty of rubber from Crosby, Malkin and company from Pittsburgh and he won't be able to hold up forever. More potential for communication errors defensively in front of Price as well being the first game back (holds true for all games really), and this entire new scenario gives these two teams an opportunity to flip the script from their 0-3 O/U record against one another during the regular season.

Every one of those games finished with five goals though, and when you mix in a higher likelihood of sloppier play, I'll gravitate to this 'over' where some will look at the series history and not even consider it.

NHL Prop
Best Bet

Matchup: Chicago vs. Edmonton
TV-Time: NBC, 3:00 p.m. ET

Edmonton to score first and win in regulation +170

The Oilers were the final cut from the “favorite” category simply because outlining the case for the biggest favorite on the board isn't the hardest thing to do. So here is a plus-money way to look at a game that should be one the Oilers exploit the numerous edges they have in this matchup.

From the speed and skill Edmonton's got up front, to the level of comfort they've got to have being in their own arena, to the thinned out Blackhawks roster, if the Oilers play at their normal level in this series, they'll ultimately end up in the next round.

With all those advantages potentially magnified in a Game 1, Edmonton coming out and establishing control of the game early on and ultimately winning is a relatively easy game script to see out. After all, the team that scored first won all three regular season meetings as well.

Obviously, the alternative could happen and the Oilers come out flat and lost with no crowd there, but for a team I do believe wins in regulation to begin with (Edmonton is +107 in regulation), adding them to score first to that opinion at this price isn't hard to get behind.

**Udog** · 08-01-2020, 11:51 AM

NHL picks and predictions for Saturday, August 1
Rohit Ponnaiya

NHL betting is back as the best-of-five qualifying rounds begin this Saturday. Games begin at noon ET with the Rangers vs Hurricanes, and go all the way past midnight with the Jets and Flames. Hockey bettors will have plenty of odds to chew on. Here are our favorite NHL picks and predictions for Saturday, August 1.

Florida Panthers vs New York Islanders

When the Panthers signed Sergei Bobrovsky for $70 million in the offseason they were expecting to put their goaltending problems behind them. Unfortunately, Bob has been an absolute disaster posting a .900 save percentage and a GAA of 3.23. That said, he played well against the Islanders at the beginning of the season, stopping 61 of 65 shots in two games.

The Islanders were 22nd in the NHL scoring and just 28th in shots per game. Their moderate success was due to strong defense and goaltending as they allowed the ninth-fewest goals per game in the league. The Under has gone 7-0-1 in the last eight games in the head-to-head between these teams and with the playoff intensity on Saturday we expect it to hit again.

PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (-105)

Chicago Blackhawks vs Edmonton Oilers

After a solid performance in Chicago's exhibition game on Wednesday, goalie Corey Crawford looks ready for action. But Crawford isn't as sharp as he used to be and the Blackhawks defense is nowhere near as good as it used to be. Chicago has allowed the second-most high-danger scoring chances at even strength and the most shots overall in the league (35.1 per game).

That's bad news against Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and a high-flying Oilers team that averages 3.14 goals per game. The Blackhawks aren't too shabby up front either, with plenty of scoring ability in their top two lines, and regardless of who the Oilers play between the pipes they should be able to find the back of the net.

PREDICTION: Over 6 (-115)

Winnipeg Jets vs Calgary Flames

Oddsmakers are expecting a close series when these Western Conference rivals square off. Although the Flames were the second-highest scoring team in the NHL in 2018-2019, they ranked 20th in the league in goals this season. The Jets actually scored nine more even-strength goals than Calgary, thanks to a balanced offense Led by Blake Wheeler, Patrik Laine, and Kyle Connor.

In nets Winnipeg has Vezina Trophy finalist Connor Hellebucyk who has gone 31-21-5 with a .922 save percentage and a GAA of 2.57. That's a distinct advantage over Calgary who has the unimpressive duo of David Rittich and Cam Talbot between the pipes. Back the squad with the superior goaltending.

PREDICTION: Moneyline Winnipeg (-105)

Today's NHL betting card

Panthers vs Islanders Under 5.5 (-105)
Blackhawks vs Oilers Over 6 (-115)
Moneyline Winnipeg (-105)

Announcement

Saturday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 8/1

Saturday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 8/1

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