Announcement

**Udog** · 03-02-2020, 07:58 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

NBA knowledge for the second day of March:

— Houston is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 road games.

— Portland won/covered once in its last seven games.

— Under is 6-2 in last eight Cleveland games.

— Memphis covered once in its last five road games.

— Milwaukee is 7-1 ATS if it played the night before.

— Miami’s last six games went over the total.

**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Studying up for conference tournaments

Notes on conference tournaments (in order of when they start)
13) Horizon: #1 seed won twice in last six years
— IUPUI won one tourney game the last eight years.
— Northern Kentucky won two of last three tourneys.
— Wright State is 8-3 in tourney games last four years.
— Youngstown is 2-6 in tourney games last six years.

12) Mountain West: #1 seed won five of last nine years
— Last 17 years, Air Force is 5-17 in tourney games.
— Last 11 years, Boise State is 5-11 in tourney games.
— Despite playing at home, UNLV went W-L six of last nine years; their last tourney title was in 2008.
— Last eight years, San Diego State is 16-7, but only one tourney title- they went W-W-L six of those eight years.
— Utah State is 5-1 in tourney last two years.

11) Ohio Valley: Team that finished 1st/tied 1st won five of last eight years.
— Belmont is 7-5 in seven OVC tourneys, with two titles (last in ’15).
— Murray State won last two titles, is 15-6 in last 21 tourney games.

10) Missouri Valley: #1 won four of last seven years.
— Drake won one game in last six tournaments.
— Illinois State is 10-8 last eight years, with no tourney titles.
— Indiana State won one tourney game the last five years.
— Last five years, Northern Iowa is 9-3 in tourney games.

9) West Coast: Gonzaga won 12 of last 16 tourneys
— Last six years, BYU is 8-6 in tourney games (no titles).
— Gonzaga won 33 of last 37 tourney games; they lost to Saint Mary’s LY.
— Last 12 years, Saint Mary’s is 13-9 in tourney games (3 titles)

8) SoCon: Team that finished 1st/tied 1st won last five tourneys.
— Since 2011, Chattanooga won tourney in ’16, is 1-8 otherwise.
— East Tennessee State is 8-3 last four years (one title).
— Last three years, NC-Greensboro is 7-2 in tourney games.
— Wofford won five of last ten tourneys.

7) CAA: Team that finished 1st/tied 1st won four of last six years
— Charleston is 6-2 last three tourneys.
— Delaware went W-L six of last nine years.
— Since 2009, Hofstra is 2-9 in its second tourney game.
— Last five years, Northeastern is 9-3 in tourney games.

6) Summit: Team that finished 1st/tied 1st won five of last seven years
— Last six years, North Dakota State is 11-3 in tourney games (3 titles)
— Last eight years, South Dakota State is 18-3 in tourney games (5 titles)

5) MAC: #1 seed won four of last seven tourneys, Buffalo won 4 of last 5.
— Akron won its first tourney game the last 15 years; they last won a tourney in 2013.
— Ball State is 2-8 in last eight tourneys.
— Buffalo won 11 of last 12 MAC tourney games.
— Kent State lost first tourney game four of last six years.
— Since 2004, Northern Illinois is 5-16 in tourney games.

4) ACC: #1 seed won four of last seven years.
— Duke won 2 of last 3 years, after not winning in previous five years.
— Georgia Tech is 2-9 in tourney games the last nine years.
— Louisville won tourneys in 2012-14 (10-0); they’re 1-4 in tourney games since.
— Miami won its first tourney game nine of last ten years.
— Notre Dame won its first tourney game 10 of last 11 years.
— Syracuse is 2-5 in ACC tournament games.
— Wake Forest is 2-12 in tourney games last 12 years.

3) MAAC: Iona won last four and 5 of last 7 tourneys, lost in final other two years
— Canisius is 4-9 the last nine years.
— Iona is 19-2 in last 21 tourney games.
— Manhattan won tourney is 2014-15, is 2-4 last four years.
— Marist won one tourney game last seven years.
— Rider is 3-8 last 11 years.
— Last six years, Saint Peter’s is 7-6 in tourney.
— Last nine years, Siena is 8-9; those were all at home.

2) Big East: Villanova won four of last five years (11-1)
— Butler is 1-6 in Big East tourney last six years.
— Creighton last first tourney game three of last four years.
— Last 10 years, DePaul is 1-10 in tourney games.
— Georgetown is 0-3 last three years, 2-6 last eight years.
— St John’s plays on its home court; they’re 3-8 last eight years.

1) Big X: #1 seed won twice in last six years
— Baylor lost its first tourney game last three years
— Iowa State won tourney four of last six years.
— Last 13 years, Kansas is 27-6 in Big X tourney.
— Kansas State went W-L last four tourneys.
— Oklahoma is 2-6 in last eight tourneys.
— Texas Tech is 2-9 last nine tourneys.
— West Virginia went W-W-L last four years.

**Udog** · 03-02-2020, 08:02 AM

13COLORADO -14 DETROIT
COLORADO is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) after a close win by 1 goal in their previous game in the current season.

15EDMONTON -16 NASHVILLE
NASHVILLE is 2-9 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games against good passing teams - averaging 5 or more assists per game in the current season.

NHL
Long Sheet

Monday, March 2

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COLORADO (39-18-0-7, 85 pts.) at DETROIT (15-47-0-5, 35 pts.) - 3/2/2020, 7:38 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 17-12 ATS (+35.7 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 142-114 ATS (+265.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1996.
DETROIT is 15-52 ATS (-106.7 Units) in all games this season.
DETROIT is 10-38 ATS (+82.4 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-37 ATS (+72.8 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
DETROIT is 5-35 ATS (+71.0 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
DETROIT is 6-27 ATS (+58.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 5-0 (+5.8 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 5-0-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.0 Units)

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EDMONTON (34-23-0-8, 76 pts.) at NASHVILLE (32-24-0-8, 72 pts.) - 3/2/2020, 8:08 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 426-450 ATS (-43.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
NASHVILLE is 32-32 ATS (+32.0 Units) in all games this season.
NASHVILLE is 11-13 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more this season.
NASHVILLE is 11-14 ATS (-13.2 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 6-9 ATS (-8.6 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 5-3 (+0.6 Units) against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 5-3-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+5.1 Units)

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NHL

Monday, March 2

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Trend Report
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13 COLORADO @ 14 DETROIT
Play On COLORADO using the Money Line in All games in a road game where where the total is 5.5
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses This Season(8.1 units)
4.2 out of 5

13 COLORADO @ 14 DETROIT
Play Against DETROIT using the Money Line in All games after allowing 4 goals or more
The record is 5 Wins and 35 Losses This Season(-27.1 units)
3.8 out of 5

13 COLORADO @ 14 DETROIT
Play Against DETROIT using the Money Line in All games after allowing 4 goals or more
The record is 5 Wins and 35 Losses This Season(-27.1 units)
3.8 out of 5

15 EDMONTON @ 16 NASHVILLE
Play On EDMONTON using the Money Line in All games
The record is 21 Wins and 13 Losses This Season(14.9 units)
2.7 out of 5

13 COLORADO @ 14 DETROIT
Play Against DETROIT using the Money Line in All games revenging a loss versus opponent
The record is 8 Wins and 37 Losses This Season(-25.15 units)
2.1 out of 5

13 COLORADO @ 14 DETROIT
Play Against DETROIT using the Money Line in All games revenging a loss versus opponent
The record is 8 Wins and 37 Losses This Season(-25.15 units)
2.1 out of 5

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**Udog** · 03-02-2020, 08:44 AM

by: Josh Inglis

EDMONTON OILERS AT NASHVILLE PREDATORS
MCDAVID IN MUSIC CITY

Monday brings us slim pickings in the NHL with just two games. The matchup offering the most value is in Nashville where the Predators (3-2 SU, 2-3 O/U last five) host the Edmonton Oilers (2-3 SU, 2-2-1 O/U last five). This will be the Preds’ fifth and final home game before playing the next six of seven on the road. Nashville is 3-1 SU on its current homestand and is averaging 3.25 goals per game and 2.75 goals against.

Monday’s match will start a three-game road trip for the Oilers with stops in Nashville, Dallas on Tuesday and Chicago on Thursday. Edmonton is 2-3 SU and 2-3 O/U on the first game of back-to-backs this year. With both teams in the thick of playoff aspirations, we're looking for a closely checked game with two teams that are hitting the Under in over 50 percent of their last 10 games.

Nashville goalie Juuse Saros has great numbers against the Oilers over his career, posting a 1.79 goals against with a .952 save percentage in five games. With both teams sporting Top-7 numbers in scoring chance save percentage and bottom half numbers in shooting percentage over the last three weeks, we see the best play on the Under 6 goals to start the week.

MONTREAL CANADIENS AT NEW YORK ISLANDERS
THE PRICE IS RIGHT IN BROOKLYN

The Montreal Canadiens come into the Barclay Center having won five of the last six matchups against the New York Islanders. The Habs also are catching the Islanders at an opportunistic time as New York has dropped three straight decisions including two straight at home.

Statistically, the Islanders are in the bottom-third of the league in many important metrics like Corsi against, scoring chances against and scoring chance shooting percentage. Over the last two seasons, Montreal goalie Carey Price is 2-1 SU versus the Islanders with a 1.33 goals against and a sparkling .955 save percentage.

Montreal has been giving up leads with ease of late but that won’t stop us from taking the value on the underdog Canadiens on Tuesday night. Take Montreal on the ML.

BOSTON BRUINS AT TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
METRO’S BEST

The two best teams in the Metro Division will square off Tuesday as the Boston Bruins — winners of seven of their last nine on the road — take on the Lighting in Tampa Bay. The Bolts had a rocky final two weeks in February as they went 1-4 SU in their last five, had the second-worst shooting percentage on scoring chances and are now without their captain and No. 2 goal scorer in Steven Stamkos, who is out for eight weeks.

Boston and goaltender Tukka Rask are coming off a 4-0 shutout victory of the Islanders on Saturday and look like they have righted the ship after a couple of embarrassing losses to the Flames and Canucks. Tampa Bay has won both matchups this year with each game being decided by a single goal. We like the value of Boston which will be the underdog in this contest and is riding the confidence that comes with shutting out a previous opponent. Take the Bruins on the ML.

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS AT WASHINGTON CAPITALS
ROUND FOUR IN D.C.

The Flyers and Capitals will meet for the fourth time this year in Washington on Wednesday. The Flyers have won twice including the most recent one back on February 8 - a 7-2 thumping in Washington that saw the visiting team pot seven goals against Washington goalie Braden Holtby.

Coming out of the weekend, the Flyers have won six straight games and have lost just three times in their last 14. Since February 12, Philly leads the league in expected goals against as it is giving up the fewest scoring chances per game over that stretch. We're backing the away team here as the Flyers should pay backers a good price as a midweek underdog. Take the Flyers on the moneyline.

If you’re looking for a little more action on this game, the Capitals are one of the league’s best Over teams at home and are 8-0-1 O/U in their last nine home games while the Flyers are 11-1 O/U in their last 12 away games.

GOALIE PROFILE: BEN BISHOP, DALLAS STARS

Looking to fade a cold goalie for an Over play this week? Take a look in Dallas with No. 1 goalie Ben Bishop. The Dallas backstop has permitted three or more goals in six of his last 10 starts, allowing four goals four times including his two most recent starts. Bishop holds a 4.21 goals against and .878 save percentage over the last two weeks and is coming off his worst month statistically.

On Tuesday, the Stars play host to the Oilers and we expect Bishop to get the start after backup Anton Khudobin played Saturday in a 4-3 loss. Bishop has started twice against the Oilers this year and holds a 0-1 SU record with a 3.71 goals against and a .884 save percentage. With Dallas not seeing a total of six goals or greater since January and sporting a Top-2 powerplay with a Bottom-10 penalty kill this month, it might be a great spot for an Over as Edmonton will also be on the backend of a back-to-back.

INJURY UPDATE: VICTOR OLOFSSON, BUFFALO SABRES

The Buffalo Sabres’ surprise rookie, Victor Olafson (19 G, 21 A in 50 GP), left Saturday’s game after injuring his right leg and was in obvious pain as he struggled to get off the ice. Olofsson had recently returned to the lineup on February 14 after missing over a month of action with a lower-body injury.

In the games that the forward was in the lineup (Feb 14 - Mar 1) the Sabres went 5-2-1 O/U and in the games the rookie missed they went 6-9-1 O/U. As a team, the Sabres averaged 2.65 goals for and 2.88 goals against without Olofsson and 3.25 goals for and 3.38 goals against with the rookie.

HAT TRICK TRENDS

• The Philadelphia Flyers, Calgary Flames and Vegas Golden Knights were the league’s best at scoring in February with each team scoring at least 3.85 goals per game. The Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers and Washington Capitals were bottom of the league in goals against per game last month with each club allowing at least 3.5 per contest.

• The Dallas Stars had the league’s best powerplay over the last 30 days at a 32.5 success rate. This is in stark contrast to their penalty killing which ranked second-last at 71 percent. The Stars averaged a middle-of-the-pack penalty rate at 8:20 per game while their powerplay saw the 24th-most time on the powerplay at just 3:20 a game.

• Away teams won just 42 percent of the games last week, down from their monthly average of 47 percent, but the teams that did win as road favorites covered the puckline at 50 percent which is a big increase on the monthly average of 34 percent.

**Udog** · 03-02-2020, 09:14 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Monday, March 2

Colorado @ Detroit

Game 13-14
March 2, 2020 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
11.598
Detroit
8.267
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado
by 3 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
-310
6
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado
(-310); Under

Edmonton @ Nashville

Game 15-16
March 2, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
10.713
Nashville
11.818
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nashville
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nashville
-135
6
Dunkel Pick:
Nashville
(-135); Under

Announcement

Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 3/2

Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 3/2

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