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**Udog** · 02-28-2020, 07:50 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

NBA knowledge for a Friday night:

— Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in its last ten road games.

— Atlanta is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games.

— Hornets are 2-6-1 ATS in last nine road games.

— Over is 14-8 in last 22 Dallas games.

— Sacramento is 5-2-1 ATS if it played night before.

— Thunder are 8-0 ATS if they played the night before.

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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here……

13) Most important part of the NFL Combine are the interviews teams do with prospective draft picks. The running and workouts and measurements have their value, but game tape means more than any workout ever will. Workouts can trick people into making draft mistakes.

That said, Arizona State punter Michael Turk beat all 33 WR’s and all the tight ends but one in weightlifting Thursday at the Combine. Very, very unusual.

12) USC 57, Arizona 48— Our Bill Walton non-basketball facts of the night:
— Thursday was the great writer John Steinbeck’s birthday.
— USC has more graduate students than non-graduate students.
— USC’s campus is 226 acres, smallest campus in the Pac-12.

11) Purdue 57, Indiana 49— This was an awful game to watch, tons of effort, no offense, but the most interesting thing here was Hoosiers coach Archie Miller having a VERY animated talk with assistant coach Bruiser Flint on the bench, during the game.

Rough night for the Miller family, with neither Arizona/Indiana scoring 50 points.

Indiana is only 8-9 in conference and they got swept by their rival here, but it is very unusual to see coaches jawing at each other during a game.

10) North Dakota State 71, South Dakota State 69 OT— These teams are now tied for first place in Summit League, clearly best teams in league; league tournament is at a neutral site, so not a huge deal, but sharing the regular season title means something.

9) Wichita State 72, Temple 69— Shockers ended game on a 14-4 run, giving coach Marshall a win on his 57th birthday; they’re 21-7 and a bubble team.

8) Wisconsin 81, Michigan 74— Badgers won five of seven games since starting G Kobe King quit the team; there is such a thing as addition by subtraction. Badgers scored 76.3 ppg in their last three games.

7) California 76, Colorado 62— Red flag for a veteran team like Colorado, getting squashed on the road by a scrappy but sub-par Cal squad.

6) Upsets:
— California (+9) 76, Colorado 62
— Towson (+7.5) 76, Hofstra 65
— Cleveland State (+7) 70, Milwaukee 68
— Wisconsin (+6.5) 81, Michigan 74
— SIU-Edwardsville (+5) 90, Tenn-Martin 75

Some notes on NBA teams playing back/back nights:
5) Best teams ATS when playing for 2nd night in a row:
Thunder 8-0, Bucks 7-1, Lakers/Wizards 6-1

4) Worst teams ATS when playing for 2nd night in a row:
Pistons 2-8, Hawks 2-7-1, Wolves 1-5-1, Knicks 1-5-2, Pacers 1-4-1

3) Milwaukee is 7-1 ATS if they played the night before, but they won all eight games; their only non-cover was a 137-129 (-14) win over Portland November 29.

2) New Orleans hasn’t had any back/backs since Zion Williamson started playing; am curious how they’ll handle that when they play next Tuesday/Wednesday.

1) League-wide, road dogs who played at home the night before are 27-21-2 ATS.

**Udog** · 02-28-2020, 07:56 AM

53MINNESOTA -54 COLUMBUS
MINNESOTA is 27-21 ATS (11.5 Units) in road games against poor power play killing teams - opp score on >17.5% of chances over the last 2 seasons.

55NY RANGERS -56 PHILADELPHIA
NY RANGERS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games in February games in the current season.

57COLORADO -58 CAROLINA
COLORADO is 18-7 ATS (11.5 Units) in road games against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game in the current season.

59PITTSBURGH -60 ANAHEIM
PITTSBURGH is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) after playing 2 consecutive road games in the current season.

61BUFFALO -62 VEGAS
BUFFALO is 8-35 ATS (-30.5 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days in the last 3 seasons.

NHL
Dunkel

Friday, February 28

NY Rangers @ Philadelphia

Game 55-56
February 28, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Rangers
13.592
Philadelphia
12.464
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Rangers
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
-165
6
Dunkel Pick:
NY Rangers
(+145); Over

Minnesota @ Columbus

Game 53-54
February 28, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
12.135
Columbus
9.777
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Columbus
-130
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+110); Over

Colorado @ Carolina

Game 57-58
February 28, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
10.308
Carolina
11.795
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 1 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
-115
6
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-115); Under

Buffalo @ Vegas

Game 61-62
February 28, 2020 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
11.426
Vegas
13.061
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vegas
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vegas
-250
6
Dunkel Pick:
Vegas
(-250); Under

Pittsburgh @ Anaheim

Game 59-60
February 28, 2020 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
10.529
Anaheim
9.513
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
-185
6
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-185); Over

NHL
Long Sheet

Friday, February 28

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MINNESOTA (30-25-0-7, 67 pts.) at COLUMBUS (31-20-0-14, 76 pts.) - 2/28/2020, 7:08 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 24-28 ATS (-17.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 10-14 ATS (-12.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 4-10 ATS (-9.2 Units) in February games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-2-0 straight up against COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.0 Units)

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NY RANGERS (34-24-0-4, 72 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (36-20-0-7, 79 pts.) - 2/28/2020, 7:08 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 36-27 ATS (+68.4 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 27-11 ATS (+12.1 Units) in February games over the last 3 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 34-28 ATS (+66.3 Units) in all games this season.
NY RANGERS are 16-12 ATS (+33.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
NY RANGERS are 10-3 ATS (+6.9 Units) in February games this season.
NY RANGERS are 15-8 ATS (+6.6 Units) second half of the season this season.
NY RANGERS are 13-5 ATS (+19.4 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
NY RANGERS are 16-13 ATS (+33.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY RANGERS are 10-8 ATS (+24.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-30 ATS (+49.6 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 271-289 ATS (-110.0 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 7-2 (+4.3 Units) against the spread versus NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 7-2-0 straight up against NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.5 Units)

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COLORADO (37-18-0-7, 81 pts.) at CAROLINA (35-23-0-4, 74 pts.) - 2/28/2020, 7:08 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 16-8 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
COLORADO is 157-152 ATS (+331.2 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1996.
COLORADO is 141-114 ATS (+264.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1996.
CAROLINA is 91-102 ATS (-56.1 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1996.
CAROLINA is 123-133 ATS (-66.9 Units) in home games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 (+0.3 Units) against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.0 Units)

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PITTSBURGH (37-19-0-6, 80 pts.) at ANAHEIM (25-30-0-8, 58 pts.) - 2/28/2020, 10:08 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 582-484 ATS (+60.1 Units) second half of the season since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 8-3 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing with 2 days rest this season.
ANAHEIM is 307-244 ATS (+37.9 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 284-262 ATS (+591.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.
PITTSBURGH is 19-7 ATS (+10.5 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
PITTSBURGH is 20-7 ATS (+10.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
ANAHEIM is 1-9 ATS (+10.7 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 3-2 (+2.1 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 3-2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)

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BUFFALO (29-26-0-8, 66 pts.) at VEGAS (35-22-0-8, 78 pts.) - 2/28/2020, 10:08 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 232-251 ATS (+543.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.
VEGAS is 81-73 ATS (+203.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 29-32 ATS (-18.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 11-14 ATS (-12.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 3-2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

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**Udog** · 02-28-2020, 10:41 AM

by: Josh Inglis

NEW YORK RANGERS AT PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
GETTING TO KNOW EACH OTHER

Friday gives us a matchup that pits the two best teams in the East over the last 10 games as the New York Rangers travel to Philadelphia to take on the Flyers. The Rangers are big underdogs on the backend of a back-to-back even though they have ripped off nine straight wins on the road while the Flyers have won seven of their last eight on home ice.

Since February 10, both teams sit in the top-5 in goals for as each team is potting more than 3.6 per contest. The Flyers are 5-0-2 O/U in their last seven while the Rangers are 4-2 O/U on the road in their last six. These teams will face each other again on Sunday and we like a loose game in the first set before tightening up in Game 2. We are taking the Over 6 to start the weekend.

COLORADO AVALANCHE AT NASHVILLE PREDATORS
STONEWALLING AVALANCHE

The Colorado Avalanche have really shut things down defensively over their last five games as they have allowed a league-low eight goals. Goalie Pavel Francouz has stepped up in a big way since Philipp Grubauer hit the shelf winning four straight starts and giving up just four goals.

Although Nashville’s 2.63 goals against over the last two weeks isn’t on the level as Colorado’s 1.75 per game, the Predators’ goals against is still top-10 and Pekka Rinne sits in the top-10 in high danger save percentage, scoring chance save percentage and expected goals against. They are also 1-4 O/U in their last five and 2-6-1 O/U in their last nine at home. We are grabbing the bet that takes years off your life and grabbing the Under 6 on Saturday night.

DETROIT RED WINGS AT OTTAWA SENATORS
NOBODY IS WORSE AT SCORING

The two worst teams in the East will square off on Saturday as the Ottawa Senators and the Detroit Red Wings will have their fourth meeting of the year. Ottawa is in the middle of a ridiculous schedule as the Saturday tilt will be its 12th game in 19 days.

The Senators have taken two of the three matchups this season with the Over hitting in both the Senators' wins and the Under cashing on Detroit’s 3-2 shootout win back in January. Both teams were very active at the trade deadline and shipped off big pieces of their core group. Detroit is 1-7-2 O/U in its last 10 while the Sens have also struggled to put up points averaging just 2.15 goals per game — the second-lowest mark next to Detroit at 1.46. We are continuing the total train this weekend (sorry moneyline guys and gals) and hitting the Under 5.5 on the league’s worst offenses who are even more shorthanded than usual.

CALGARY FLAMES AT FLORIDA PANTHERS
THE OVER IS GOING UP IN FLAMES

The Florida Panthers have the best home O/U records in the league at 19-8-3 while also going 6-2 O/U in their last eight. The Cats are a middle-of-the-pack team in expected goals for in February but are dead last in expected goals against. That could spell trouble on Sunday when the playoff-hopeful Panthers face February’s hottest offense in the Calgary Flames.

Calgary is averaging a healthy 4.63 goals for over the last three weeks and has the most goals at 5-on-5 — it also has the most goals against at 5-on-5. All this points to a profitable Over team as Calgary is 12-2-1 O/U in its last 15 games. The market really hasn’t adjusted to this as the Flames have seen a total of 6.5 just twice across their Over stretch. We are finishing the week off cheering for goals and taking the Over 6 (and up to 6.5) on this Sunday 4 PM ET matchup.

GOALIE PROFILE: ANTTI RAANTA, ARIZONA COYOTES

Playing hockey in the desert will never make you a household name. We love hockey but would still be in tough to name 10 players on the Arizona Coyotes. Although the Yotes’ playoff hopes are dwindling, the blame game shall not be passed to their goalie Antti Raanta. The 30-year-old Finn has a .921 save percentage in 32 games this year and has been the de facto No. 1 with Darcy Kuemper on the shelf.

In his nine starts this month, Raanta has picked up five wins and allowed two goals or fewer in six of them. The Under has also been profitable on the netminder as Arizona is 2-7 O/U in February when Raanta starts. Feel comfortable riding the Under with the Coyotes as they play Buffalo on Saturday.

INJURY UPDATE: JAKE MUZZIN, TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

The Leafs are down three of their top-6 defenders as the recently re-signed Jake Muzzin will miss the next four weeks with a broken hand after blocking a shot earlier in the week. This leaves Tyson Barrie as the No. 1 defenseman and the former Avalanche has more games played in the NHL than the remaining five Maple Leafs blueliners combined.

Toronto will be starting 19-year-old Rasmus Sandin and a 20-year-old Timothy Liljegren for a good stretch of the remaining games this year. Things could get even uglier for the Leafs who are seemingly addicted to inconsistency as they averaged north of three goals against a game with Muzzin in the lineup and could be in for some more typical-Toronto defensive lapses with such a young D-core.

HAT TRICK TRENDS

• People say playing on the road has changed over the years as dressing rooms, accommodations and transportation have all been upgraded. These people may be on to something. On the year, away teams have won 47 percent of games. That number jumps to 48 percent over the last two months and 51 percent in the last month. Don’t be swayed too much and take the value that comes with riding an away team.

• First-period moneylines are a fun a quick bet. Straight ML bets can push if the score is tied after one period and if you play the -0.5, some big bucks can be won. Since the beginning of 2020, the Nashville Predators, Calgary Flames, New York Rangers and St. Louis Blues are the league’s best at scoring first-period goals while the Winnipeg Jets, Vegas Golden Knights, Calgary Flames and Philadelphia Flyers are the league’s worst at keeping pucks out of the net in the first period.

• The Vancouver Canucks lead the league this month in penalty minutes per game at a robust 13.43 per match. That is nearly four-full minutes more than the fifth-highest team. Coincidentally, the Canucks also have the league’s second-best powerplay in February at a 29 percent success rate.

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Friday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 2/28

Friday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 2/28

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