Announcement

**Udog** · 02-20-2020, 08:22 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds for this week’s WGC – Mexico Championship

6-1— Rory McIlroy

8-1— Dustin Johnson

10-1— Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas

20-1— Fleetwood, Matsuyama, Schauffele, Scott, Simpson

30-1— Bryson DeChambeau

40-1— Casey, Garcia, Kuchar, Morikawa, Oosthuizen, Reed, Woodland

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) NC State 88, Duke 66:
— Sunday, Wolfpack lost to a sub-par Boston College team
— This game, they ran the Blue Devils off the floor.
— Saturday, they host Florida State, another top 25 team.

To win the national title, you have to win six games in a row; not sure how many teams there are in this year of incredibly erratic play that can play well six games in a row.

12) Seton Hall 74, Butler 72— Pirates scored on a lob pass on an out-of-bounds under play with 0:00.6 left to win this game, after they blew a 5-point lead with 0:35 left. Butler lost for fourth time in last six games, despite shooting 58.8% inside arc.

11) Sounds like the NFL is expanding the playoffs to 14 teams next year, so the #1 seeds in each conference will be the only teams to get a first-round bye.

10) Mississippi State 79, South Carolina 76— Bulldogs won eight of last 11 games, are 8-5 in SEC as they try to get off the NCAA bubble.

Miss State coach Ben Howland got UCLA to the Final Four three years in a row, from 2006-08, never won the national title, and wound up getting fired after a 25-10, 13-5 season in 2013. He’s a really good coach; Starkville ain’t the easiest place to win. Would be impressive if Miss State makes it to the NCAAs this year, with experience team #287.

9) East Tennessee State 75, Furman 66— Buccaneers improve to 12-3 in SoCon, lead Furman and NC-Greensboro by game. In five years under Steve Forbes, ETSU is 124-47, 68-19 in conference games. How the hell has some big $$$$ team not hired this guy?

8) Stephen F Austin could be a very nervous team on Selection Sunday, unless they win the Southland Conference tournament. Lumberjacks are 23-3, have run away with the regular season title in Southland, and they won 85-83 in OT at Duke Nov 26. Big win.

But SF Austin is ranked #110 on KenPom, nowhere near the bubble; they lost by 12 at Rutgers, by 10 at Alabama, two losses that look better now than they did then- they also lost a league game in Corpus Christi, a bad loss.

If the Lumberjacks were to get upset in the Southland tourney, I’d still much rather see them in the NCAAs than the 10th or 11th place team in the Big 14. Don’t think it’ll happen, though.

7) Upsets:
— Central Florida (+11) 89, Cincinnati 87, 2OT
— Texas A&M (+10.5) 74, Alabama 68
— George Washington (+10) 70, Duquesne 67
— Lamar (+8.5) 77, Sam Houston State 65
— Tulane (+8) 80, SMU 72
— VMI (+8) 74, Western Carolina 71
— NC State (+7.5) 88, Duke 66
— Indiana (+6.5) 68, Minnesota 56
— Incarnate Word (+6.5) 65, McNeese State 59

6) Michigan 60, Rutgers 52— Scarlet Knights are much improved at 18-9, 9-7 in conference, but they look like they practice without a basketball. Rutgers is shooting 29.8% on arc (#318), 65.2% on arc (#320). No bueno.

5) Miami 102, Virginia Tech 95, 3OT— Kameron McGusty scored 21 points in 44:00 for Miami, and he didn’t start. Teams combined to make 53 of 60 foul shots. Hurricanes led by 12 early in second half, needed 3 OT’s to break their 6-game road losing streak.

Tech led by 7 with 4:35 left, but lost for sixth time in last seven games.

4) Someone posted a video on Twitter Wednesday; Bogdan Bogdanovic of Sacramento Kings, making 90 foul shots in a row at practice- they actually just showed him missing the 91st foul shot, but you get the idea. The skill level of NBA players is underrated, how hard they work to become as good as they are.

3) Drake 77, Valparaiso 75 OT— Bulldogs were up 18 at the half, survive in OT and improve to 18-10, 8-7 in Missouri Valley. Drake is on its fifth head coach in eight years; they’re 20-13 in MVC in two years under Darian DeVries.

2) ESPN runs a promo for SportsCenter during the NC State-Duke game, what is their big promo? Lebron James? Astros? Drew Brees? The Wilder fight this weekend?

Nope, they hype an interview with Zion Williamson, who would be on the network less if his mother ran ESPN. Enough already with the kid, at least for a while.

1) They called a flagrant foul on a Duke player early in the 2nd half last night; players were under the basket, jockeying for position, nothing major, but the NC State kid got slapped in the face, and they called it a flagrant foul. Rule makers are making basketball a much softer game, and I don’t think it helps the game— too many whistles, too many replay reviews.

**Udog** · 02-20-2020, 08:26 AM

1SAN JOSE -2 NEW JERSEY
NEW JERSEY is 3-11 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games against terrible defensive teams - allowing 3+ goals/game in the current season.

3PHILADELPHIA -4 COLUMBUS
COLUMBUS are 15-3 ATS (11.7 Units) in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.

5MONTREAL -6 WASHINGTON
MONTREAL is 26-34 ATS (-16.7 Units) against mistake free teams - opponents average <=4 power plays/game in the current season.

7PITTSBURGH -8 TORONTO
TORONTO is 1-9 ATS (-12.9 Units) against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season in the current season.

9WINNIPEG -10 OTTAWA
WINNIPEG is 11-4 ATS (10.9 Units) in road games against poor defensive teams - allowing 2.85+ goals/game in the current season.

11ARIZONA -12 ST LOUIS
ARIZONA is 40-107 ATS (-50.8 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1996.

13TAMPA BAY -14 VEGAS
TAMPA BAY is 18-4 ATS (12.8 Units) in road games against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game in the current season.

15FLORIDA -16 LOS ANGELES
FLORIDA is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) against terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 0.5+ goals/game in the current season.

**Udog** · 02-20-2020, 09:19 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Thursday, February 20

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SAN JOSE (26-29-0-4, 56 pts.) at NEW JERSEY (22-27-0-10, 54 pts.) - 2/20/2020, 7:08 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 22-32 ATS (-20.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 4-0 ATS (+4.0 Units) in road games in February games this season.
SAN JOSE is 14-6 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
NEW JERSEY is 4-17 ATS (+31.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
NEW JERSEY is 6-19 ATS (+27.1 Units) in home games after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE is 3-1 (+1.9 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE is 3-1-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

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PHILADELPHIA (33-20-0-7, 73 pts.) at COLUMBUS (30-19-0-12, 72 pts.) - 2/20/2020, 7:08 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 269-289 ATS (-102.7 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 450-398 ATS (-125.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 24-11 ATS (+10.4 Units) in February games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-3 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 1-7 ATS (-9.6 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 6-5 (+0.4 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBUS is 6-5-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.0 Units)

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MONTREAL (27-27-0-8, 62 pts.) at WASHINGTON (37-17-0-5, 79 pts.) - 2/20/2020, 7:08 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 27-35 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all games this season.
MONTREAL is 2-14 ATS (+19.0 Units) in road games in February games over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 7-13 ATS (-9.7 Units) after a division game this season.
MONTREAL is 19-40 ATS (+65.3 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 48-79 ATS (+132.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 10-18 ATS (-11.0 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
MONTREAL is 2-12 ATS (-14.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
MONTREAL is 15-39 ATS (+67.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 154-101 ATS (+290.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 135-86 ATS (+33.8 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
MONTREAL is 27-23 ATS (+58.0 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 2-5 ATS (-9.3 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-3 (+0.7 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 5-3-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.6 Units)

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PITTSBURGH (37-15-0-6, 80 pts.) at TORONTO (31-22-0-8, 70 pts.) - 2/20/2020, 7:08 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-4-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.6 Units)

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WINNIPEG (31-25-0-5, 67 pts.) at OTTAWA (21-28-0-11, 53 pts.) - 2/20/2020, 7:38 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 13-7 ATS (+23.0 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
OTTAWA is 127-118 ATS (-18.6 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
OTTAWA is 1-11 ATS (+19.3 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
OTTAWA is 175-161 ATS (-120.5 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 2-3 (+0.3 Units) against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 3-2-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.9 Units)

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ARIZONA (30-25-0-8, 68 pts.) at ST LOUIS (33-17-0-10, 76 pts.) - 2/20/2020, 8:08 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 25-22 ATS (+56.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 7-12 ATS (-12.4 Units) second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 6-2 (+6.5 Units) against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 6-2-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.2 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (40-15-0-5, 85 pts.) at VEGAS (31-22-0-8, 70 pts.) - 2/20/2020, 10:08 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 102-44 ATS (+24.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 47-22 ATS (+16.3 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in February games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 19-3 ATS (+13.8 Units) second half of the season this season.
TAMPA BAY is 38-14 ATS (+14.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 15-3 ATS (+9.9 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak this season.
TAMPA BAY is 10-1 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
VEGAS is 31-30 ATS (-16.6 Units) in all games this season.
VEGAS is 32-33 ATS (-16.7 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 4-9 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing with 2 days rest this season.
VEGAS is 10-16 ATS (-14.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
VEGAS is 27-32 ATS (-16.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 2-7 ATS (-8.5 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 3-2 (+2.0 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
VEGAS is 3-2-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.8 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLORIDA (32-22-0-6, 70 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (21-34-0-5, 47 pts.) - 2/20/2020, 10:38 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 3-2 (+0.9 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 3-2-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.1 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 02-20-2020, 01:24 PM

NHL
Dunkel

Thursday, February 20

Pittsburgh @ Toronto

Game 7-8
February 20, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
12.170
Toronto
10.010
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-115
6 12
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-105); Under

San Jose @ New Jersey

Game 1-2
February 20, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Jose
9.387
New Jersey
10.782
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Jersey
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Jersey
-125
6
Dunkel Pick:
New Jersey
(-125); Under

Montreal @ Washington

Game 5-6
February 20, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montreal
10.673
Washington
9.821
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Montreal
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-200
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Montreal
(+170); Under

Philadelphia @ Columbus

Game 3-4
February 20, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
10.264
Columbus
11.051
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Columbus
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Columbus
-120
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Columbus
(-120); Under

Winnipeg @ Ottawa

Game 9-10
February 20, 2020 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
12.524
Ottawa
11.517
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Winnipeg
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Winnipeg
-135
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
(-135); Over

Arizona @ St. Louis

Game 11-12
February 20, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
10.561
St. Louis
11.723
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-175
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(-175); Under

Tampa Bay @ Vegas

Game 13-14
February 20, 2020 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
10.568
Vegas
11.805
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vegas
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-120
6
Dunkel Pick:
Vegas
(+100); Under

Florida @ Los Angeles

Game 15-16
February 20, 2020 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida
10.567
Los Angeles
11.323
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida
-140
6
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(+120); Over

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Thursday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 2/20

Thursday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 2/20

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