Announcement

**Udog** · 12-30-2019, 07:39 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Top six picks for Week 17 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Chicago +1 (644)- W

5) Indianapolis -3.5 (695)- L

4) Kansas City -8.5 (753)- W

3) Seattle +3.5 (807)- L

2) Tennessee -3.5 (987)- W

1) NJ Giants +4.5 (995)- L

2019 record: 54-43-5

**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…..

Dolphins 27, Patriots 24:
— Miami drove 75 yards in 3:29 for the winning TD with 0:25 left.
— Dolphins went 5-4 in last nine games, after an 0-7 start.
— Ryan Fitzpatrick should play in the Pro Bowl; seriously.

— Patriots will be hosting a playoff game next weekend.
— In their last eight games, NE was outscored 97-75 in first half.
— Four of last five Patriot games went over the total.

Chiefs 31, Chargers 21:
— Chargers lost six of their last seven games.
— In last eight games, LA was minus-13 in turnovers (4-17).
— Four of Chargers’ last five games went over the total.

— Chiefs get a first round bye, thanks to New England’s loss.
— Down 14-10, KC ran a kickoff back 104 yards for the go-ahead TD.
— Next time they had the ball, Williams ran 84 yards for a TD on first play.

Packers 23, Lions 20:
— Green Bay gets a bye next week.
— Packers drove 68 yards in eight plays, kicked GW FG at gun.
— Green Bay won its last five games, allowing 14.2 ppg

— Detroit led this game 17-3 at halftime.
— Lions in 2nd half: 24 plays, 89 yards, 4 first downs, 3 points.
— Detroit lost its last nine games (2-6-1 ATS); they’re 9-17-1 ATS in last 27 games as a home underdog, 4-3 TY.

Bengals 33, Browns 23:
— Browns lost four of last four games, giving up 38-31-33 points in last three.
— Cleveland lost its last six road games; since ’13, they’re 1-7 ATS as a road favorite, 1-4 TY.
— Browns lost nine t of their last 11 visits to Cincinnati.

— Bengals ran ball for 179 yards, converted 9-14 on third down.
— Was this Andy Dalton’s last game as Cincinnati’s QB?
— Bengals’ last four games went over the total.

Bears 21, Vikings 19:
— Chicago won its fourth game in a ow over the Vikings.
— Pineiro kicked GW 22-yard FG with 0:10 left.
— Spread opened Vikings -7, wound up Vikings +4.

— Minnesota went 0-4-1 ATS in last five home games.
— Both teams scored only one TD, kicked four FG’s.
— Boone ran ball 17 times for 148 yards and a TD.

Falcons 28, Buccaneers 22 OT:
— Falcons tied game with FG at gun, won it on a pick-6 on first play of OT.
— Atlanta won six of its last eight games after a 1-7 start.
— Falcons scored 9 points on five trips to red zone; no bueno.

— Tampa Bay didn’t score in 2nd half or OT.
— Winston is first QB ever with 30+ TD’s, 30+ INT’s.
— Bucs were 0-3 on FG’s, Atlanta was 5-5.

Saints 42, Panthers 10:
— New Orleans won six of its last seven games overall, scoring 20 TD’s on their last 42 drives
— Saints won six of last seven series games, winning last three visits to Charlotte by 3-21-32 points
— Saints will host Minnesota in the early game Sunday afternoon.

— Carolina lost its last eight games (2-6 ATS).
— Panthers’ first seven drives: 19 plays, 41 yards, one first down.
— In their last eight games, Panthers had a minus-20 turnover ratio, turning ball over 22 times.

Jets 13, Bills 6:
— Jets won six of last eight games after a 1-7 start.
— Five of the Jets’ last six games went under the total.
— Jets scored only 10 points on three red zine drives.

— Josh Allen played for a while at the start; no idea why.
— Buffalo heads to Houston for a playoff game next week.
— Under is 7-2 in Buffalo’s last nine games.

Eagles 34, Giants 17:
— Philly wins NFC East; they host Seattle in Wild Card round.
— Eagles won 12 of their last 13 games with the Giants.
— Philly won its last four games overall, scoring 13 TD’s on 47 drives

— Giants are 1-10 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog.
— Seven of their last nine games went over the total.
— Giants are likely to fire coach Pat Shurmur Monday.

Cowboys 47, Redskins 16:
— Redskins lost eight of their last nine games with Dallas.
— Washington converted 1-12 on third down, Cowboys 8-15.
— Starting tomorrow, Redskins’ president Bruce Allen will no longer run football operations, which is good news for Redskins’ fans.

— Gallup caught five footballs for 98 yards, three TD’s.
— Dallas had seven plays of 20+ yards, five of them on third down.
— Cowboys will probably fire Jason Garrett this week.

Ravens 28, Steelers 10:
— In 2nd half, Steelers’ offense was outscored 9-3 by Ravens’ defense.
— Pitt misses playoffs for 2nd year in row, after making it 12 of previous 17 years.
— Steelers lost their last three games, scoring 10 points in all three games.

— Ravens ran ball for 223 yards on a rainy day were neither team threw for 100 yards.
— Heading into playoffs, Ravens are clearly best team in NFL.
— Baltimore was 2-2 at one point, then won its last 12 games.

Jaguars 38, Colts 20:
— Colts in first half: 37 plays, 236 yards, 13 first downs, 20 points.
— Colts in second half: 20 plays, 46 yards, 4 first downs, no points.
— Indy lost its last five visits here, by 6-20-3-35-18 points.

— Jaguars outscored Indy 22-0 in second half.
— Jax broke game open with defensive TD which made it 31-20 with 9:28 left.
— Minshew threw for 295 yards; Jags converted 9-14 on third down.

Titans 35, Texans 14:
— Titans ran ball for 245 yards, averaged 10.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Tennessee ended a 7-game losing skid in Houston.
— Titans visit New England in the Wild Card round next week.

— AJ McCarron was 21-36/225 passing for Houston.
Wild Card spreads:
— Houston -3, 41.5 vs Buffalo; New England -5.5, 43.5 vs Tennessee
— New Orleans -8, 47 vs Minnesota; Seattle -1, 45.5 @ Philadelphia.

Rams 31, Cardinals 24:
— Arizona lost last seven series games, losing last five by combined score of 163-56.
— Cardinals gained 268 yards on five drives in 2nd half: two TD’s, three turnovers.
— When you’re minus-5 in turnovers, you ain’t winning.

— Rams faked a punt from their own 17 in first quarter; it didn’t work.
— LA converted 11-18 third down plays.
— Under McVay, Rams’ record in games decided by 6 or fewer points:
2017: 3-1……2018: 5-0……2019: 1-3

Broncos 16, Raiders 15:
— Oakland scored TD with 0:07 left, went for two points and the win.
— Raiders scored 15 points on five red zone drives. Not good.
— Home side won last eight series games.

— Broncos won four of five games with rookie Lock at QB.
— Teams combined for two TD’s, eight field goal attempts.
— Denver won its last four home games (3-1 ATS).

49ers 26, Seahawks 21:
— SF tackled a Seattle TE on 1-yard line as game ended.
— 49ers win NFC West, are #1 seed in NFC.
— This was only Niners’ 2nd win in last 12 games vs Seattle.

— Seahawks in 1st half: 24 plays, 79 yards, 6 first downs, zero points.
— Seahawks in 2nd half: 47 plays, 269 yards, 21 first downs, 21 points.
— Seattle visits Philadelphia in Wild Card game Sunday.

**Udog** · 12-30-2019, 07:42 AM

21OTTAWA -22 PITTSBURGH
OTTAWA is 11-7 ATS (7.3 Units) against horrible power play killing teams-opp score on >19% of chances in the current season.

NHL

Monday, December 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Ottawa
Pittsburgh is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Ottawa
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Ottawa
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Ottawa is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ottawa's last 7 games
Ottawa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Ottawa is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ottawa's last 6 games on the road
Ottawa is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Pittsburgh
Ottawa is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Ottawa is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Ottawa is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Ottawa is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 12-30-2019, 08:55 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Monday, December 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OTTAWA (16-18-0-5, 37 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (23-11-0-4, 50 pts.) - 12/30/2019, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 20-6 ATS (+9.3 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 14-6 ATS (+6.2 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
OTTAWA is 10-6 ATS (+19.5 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
PITTSBURGH is 39-40 ATS (-20.6 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 (+0.5 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-2-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 12-30-2019, 09:38 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Monday, December 30

Ottawa @ Pittsburgh

Game 21-22
December 30, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ottawa
10.325
Pittsburgh
12.422
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
-265
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-265); Under

**Udog** · 12-30-2019, 09:47 AM

by: Josh Inglis

A CASE OF THE MONDAYS

Monday gives us just one game where the Pittsburgh Penguins will entertain the Ottawa Senators who will be on the backend of a back-to-back. Pittsburgh has won both of its games following the Christmas break, potting 11 goals in the process.

The Senators have allowed the third-most goals against in their 10 games leading up to the break at 3.4 goals per game and were losers of eight of their last nine road games. With the Sens taking close to 10 minutes in penalties in December and having allowed four or more goals in four of their last five, we are hitting the Pens’ team total of 3.5 and playing the Over.

COUNTDOWN TO NEW YEARS

New Year’s Eve gives us a full slate of hockey, starting at 1 PM ET. If you’re looking for some all-day action, there are some decent heavy favorites in each of the major time slots.

Starting with the 1 PM game, we are taking the Bruins as road favorites in New Jersey as Boston has won the last five regular-season matchups between the two sides.

At 3 PM, we are adding the Vegas Golden Knights ML as they play host to the Anaheim Ducks. The Knights have won the last three matchups in Vegas by a combined score of 13-3 and have won four of their last five home games heading into Tuesday.

For the evening matches, we like the Lightning ML and Flames ML. Tampa Bay will have a decent price as a road favorite and have handed the Sabres a loss in six straight matchups while the Blackhawks have struggled to pick up two points against the Flames as they have dropped six in a row against Calgary.

Taking the Bruins, Knights, Lightning and Flames on a four-team ML parlay will give you something to check throughout the holiday and could make you up to four to five times your bet just before the countdown to midnight.

OVER INTO 2020

Both the New York Rangers and Edmonton Oilers are allowing just under four goals per game in their last five. As of Sunday, the Rangers haven’t hit an Under in their last seven games going 6-0-1 O/U while the Oilers are 2-1-2 O/U in their previous five.

The Oilers have had to rely on the powerplay as their offensive catalyst this year. Their power play is scoring at 30 percent on the year and will face the Rangers’ Bottom-10 penalty-killing unit.

The Rangers have potted five goals three separate times across their last four games and sit in eighth in expected goals for in December, but more importantly, have the most expected goals against this month.

Take the Tuesday night Over 6 and enjoy some of the last goals of 2019.

THE 2020 WINTER CLASSIC

The 2020 Winter Classic will be held in Dallas, Texas on Wednesday as the Predators and Stars will battle it out outdoors. With the unfamiliar conditions, this is a game that could easily fit into the Dallas Stars’ defensive-style of winning.

Dallas has the fourth-fewest goals against and the most points at home this year. In their 21 games in Texas, the Stars are conceding just 2.09 goals per game — the best mark in the league. We lean on the Under 5.5 but have trouble pulling the trigger with Nashville having allowed 11 goals in its two games back from the break.

We are going to take the home team ML in this outdoor game and may have to take the 3-way ML if the juice is on the heavy side of things on the 2-way ML.

GOALIE PROFILE: ELVIS MERZLIKINS, COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS

The Jackets find themselves a few points out a playoff spot thanks to winning five straight before the break and the stellar goaltending from Joonas Korpisalo. Unfortunately, their No. 1 tender was injured and helped off the ice on Sunday. Korpisalo had started 10 straight games and now the team will have to carry on with Elvis Merzlikins.

The Latvian goalie is winless in the NHL going 0-4-3 this year with a 3.41 goals against and a .889 save percentage. This is a massive blow to a Jackets team that was gaining an identity.

On Tuesday, the Jackets will face the Panthers at home. Florida beat Merzlikins 4-1 earlier this month and should have some value on the Money Line as a visiting team. Florida hasn’t won in Columbus since 2015 but facing the 25-year-old rookie goalie could change that.

INJURY UPDATE: F ILYA MIKHEYEV, TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

The Toronto Maple Leafs have been hit with a slew of injuries of late. Forward Ilya Mikheyev sustained a scary cut to his wrist on Friday and will be re-evaluated in 90 days. The loss of the winger has shaken up the Leafs’ lineup as they have had to move their third-line center to the wing on the second line as well as promoting players from the Marlies.

The Buds also lost defenseman Jake Muzzin to a broken foot, which means they are a mess in terms of defensive responsibility with a center moving to wing and a handful of inexperienced players. We like the Over versus the Wild on Tuesday.

HAT TRICK TRENDS

• The New York Islanders bring the league’s best road Under record (4-10-3 O/U) to the league’s best home Over record in Washington (12-5-1 O/U) on Tuesday. The Caps are 1-3 O/U in their last four at home while the Islanders have hit the Under in six of their last nine road games (2-6-1 O/U)

• The Minnesota Wild are earning 1.53 points per game at home this year which is the best mark in the league. The Wild will host the Maple Leafs who have earned 13 of a possible 14 points over their last seven games. This hot but injured Leafs team should give the Wild some decent value at home on the Money Line.

• Heading into Sunday’s games, there were plenty of goals with teams coming out of the Christmas break. Out of the 34 games, the Over hit in 22 of them (64.7 %).

Announcement

Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 12/30

Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 12/30

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment