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  • Friday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 12/6

    Trends and Indexes

    Friday, December 6

    Good Luck on day # 340 of 2019!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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  • #2
    Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

    Pitchers who threw fewest pitches/batter last year:

    3.58— Brett Anderson, A’s

    3.63— German Marquez, NYY

    3.65— Zach Eflin Phil, Mike Soroka, Atl

    3,67— Masahiro Tanaka, NYY

    3.69— Sandy Alcantara, Mia

    3.70— Kyle Hendricks Cubs, Joe Musgrove, Pitt


    **********

    Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…..

    13) Bears 31, Cowboys 24:
    — Dallas drove 75 yards on 17 plays (8:57) for a TD on their first drive.
    — Cowboys’ next five drives: 19 plays, 58 yards, 2 first downs, 0 points.
    — Dallas lost four of last five games, but still leads NFC East at 6-7.

    — Trubisky ran ball nine times for 64 yards and a TD; he threw for three TD’s.
    — Bears won four of last five games; they won field position by 19 yards.
    — Chicago has outscored opponents 98-30 in 3rd quarter this year.

    12) There are two divisions in the ACC during football season, the Atlantic and the Coastal. The winners meet in the ACC title game, this year being held in Charlotte.

    Over the last nine years, Clemson/Florida State have won the Atlantic Division every year, but over the last seven years, the Coastal Division has been won by seven different teams. The true definition of parity; seven division champs in seven years.

    11) Ohio State 74, North Carolina 49— This is the first time since 1949-50 that North Carolina hasn’t scored 80+ points in any of their first eight games in a season. Tar Heels are 6-2, with both of their losses are against top 15 teams.

    10) UNLV 81, Fresno State 80 2OT— Rebels have already played four OT games; this was first one they won- it was their conference opener, so it was more important than the other ones.

    9) Louisiana Tech 74, Mississippi State 67— Good win for Conference USA. Tech made 10-16 on arc in this game. State made 11-23 on arc and still lost.

    Auburn 81, Furman 78 OT— Furman led this game by 14 with 16:09 to play; they made 13-31 on arc, but Auburn rallies to stay unbeaten, despite turning ball over 19 times (-4).

    8) Ideas for reality TV shows:
    — Inside the room as they make the NFL schedule each year.
    — Inside the room of a major league team approaching the trade deadline.
    — Inside agent Scott Boras’ entourage during the Winter Meetings.

    7) Baseball stuff:
    — Milwaukee got C Omar Narvaez from Seattle for minor league P Adam Hill and a competitive balance draft pick.
    — Mets got OF Jake Marisnick from Houston for two minor leaguers.

    6) From ESPN.com: Over/under season win totals that already cashed:
    Seahawks over 8.5
    49ers over 8
    Ravens over 8
    Bills over 7

    Chargers under 10
    Eagles under 10
    Falcons under 8.5
    Bengals under 6

    5) Former Auburn QB Joey Gatewood is transferring to Kentucky; not often a kid transfers to another school in the same league. He will be eligible to play in 2021, and hopefully, those two teams will play once or twice while he is playing for the Wildcats.

    4) Michigan-Kentucky are going to play a basketball game in London next December.

    3) Indiana Hoosiers are only D-I college hoop team that hasn’t played a game yet away from its home arena- they play at Wisconsin Saturday.

    2) Suns 139, Pelicans 132 OT— Booker scored 44 points for the Suns, who blew a 16-point lead in 4th quarter. Four of five New Orleans starters scored 20+ points in the loss.

    1) Baseball’s winter meetings are next week; a good time to think about next season and try and make some decisions about my fantasy baseball team, which had a cruddy year LY. One of the bigger decisions; what writers do I trust for information?

    Last year I was reading some stuff on The Athletic, and this writer was raving about a pitcher on the Blue Jays, Trent Thornton. I didn’t have any opinion on Thornton myself, but I took a leap of faith in the writer and added Thornton, who proceeded to get treated like a piñata by hitters— his ERA on August 31 was 5.48 (he did have a solid September).

    No bueno. Moral of the story: Be careful who you listen to.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-06-2019, 12:12 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      63CHICAGO -64 NEW JERSEY
      NEW JERSEY is 3-9 ATS (-8.4 Units) in home games against poor defensive teams - opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal in the current season.

      65ARIZONA -66 PITTSBURGH
      ARIZONA is 12-6 ATS (11 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons.

      67MONTREAL -68 NY RANGERS
      NY RANGERS are 103-125 ATS (-34.5 Units) at home when the total is >=6 since 1996.

      69LOS ANGELES -70 EDMONTON
      EDMONTON is 0-5 ATS (-7.1 Units) against poor offensive teams - scoring <=2.55 goals/game in the current season.

      71WASHINGTON -72 ANAHEIM
      ANAHEIM is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) at home when the total is >=6 in the last 3 seasons.




      NHL

      Friday, December 6


      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Trend Report
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      New Jersey Devils
      New Jersey is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
      New Jersey is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
      The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing Chicago
      New Jersey is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Chicago
      Chicago Blackhawks
      Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
      Chicago is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
      The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games
      Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
      Chicago is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games on the road
      Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Jersey
      The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing New Jersey
      Chicago is 4-11-1 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against New Jersey

      New York Rangers
      NY Rangers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
      NY Rangers is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
      The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Rangers's last 5 games
      NY Rangers is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Montreal
      NY Rangers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Montreal
      The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Rangers's last 6 games when playing Montreal
      NY Rangers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal
      NY Rangers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal
      The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Rangers's last 6 games when playing at home against Montreal
      Montreal Canadiens
      Montreal is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
      Montreal is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
      The total has gone OVER in 7 of Montreal's last 10 games
      Montreal is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
      Montreal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
      The total has gone OVER in 8 of Montreal's last 12 games on the road
      Montreal is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing NY Rangers
      Montreal is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Rangers
      The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing NY Rangers
      Montreal is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Rangers
      Montreal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Rangers
      The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Rangers

      Pittsburgh Penguins
      Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
      The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games
      Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
      Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
      The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 13 games when playing Arizona
      Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
      The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona
      Arizona Coyotes
      Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
      The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
      Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
      Arizona is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
      The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
      Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
      Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
      The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona's last 13 games when playing Pittsburgh
      Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
      The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

      Edmonton Oilers
      The total has gone OVER in 8 of Edmonton's last 12 games
      Edmonton is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
      Edmonton is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
      The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games at home
      Edmonton is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
      Edmonton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
      Edmonton is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
      The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Edmonton's last 8 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
      Los Angeles Kings
      Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
      Los Angeles is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
      The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games
      Los Angeles is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
      Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
      The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games on the road
      Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
      Los Angeles is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
      Los Angeles is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
      The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 8 games when playing on the road against Edmonton

      Anaheim Ducks
      Anaheim is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
      Anaheim is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
      The total has gone OVER in 9 of Anaheim's last 12 games
      Anaheim is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home
      Anaheim is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
      The total has gone OVER in 5 of Anaheim's last 7 games at home
      Anaheim is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
      Anaheim is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
      The total has gone OVER in 5 of Anaheim's last 7 games when playing Washington
      Anaheim is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Washington
      Washington Capitals
      Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
      The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
      Washington is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
      Washington is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
      The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 12 games on the road
      The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
      Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Anaheim
      Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Anaheim
      The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Anaheim
      Washington is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Anaheim


      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-06-2019, 12:13 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        NHL
        Long Sheet

        Friday, December 6


        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        CHICAGO (11-12-0-5, 27 pts.) at NEW JERSEY (9-14-0-4, 22 pts.) - 12/6/2019, 7:05 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        CHICAGO is 375-382 ATS (-153.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
        NEW JERSEY is 91-74 ATS (+1.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
        NEW JERSEY is 9-18 ATS (+30.6 Units) in all games this season.
        NEW JERSEY is 9-18 ATS (+27.9 Units) first half of the season this season.
        NEW JERSEY is 1-6 ATS (-6.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
        NEW JERSEY is 1-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season this season.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        NEW JERSEY is 3-1 (+2.8 Units) against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
        NEW JERSEY is 3-1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
        3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.1 Units)

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        ARIZONA (17-9-0-4, 38 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (15-9-0-4, 34 pts.) - 12/6/2019, 7:05 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        ARIZONA is 20-16 ATS (+43.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
        ARIZONA is 20-16 ATS (+43.4 Units) in road games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
        ARIZONA is 6-1 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after a non-conference game this season.
        ARIZONA is 6-1 ATS (+7.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
        ARIZONA is 28-26 ATS (+64.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
        ARIZONA is 12-5 ATS (+19.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
        PITTSBURGH is 35-38 ATS (-32.6 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 3 seasons.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        PITTSBURGH is 4-0 (+4.0 Units) against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
        PITTSBURGH is 4-0-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
        3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.0 Units)

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        MONTREAL (12-11-0-6, 30 pts.) at NY RANGERS (14-10-0-3, 31 pts.) - 12/6/2019, 7:05 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        MONTREAL is 14-35 ATS (+57.0 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
        NY RANGERS are 103-125 ATS (-40.9 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
        NY RANGERS are 165-162 ATS (-78.3 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        MONTREAL is 4-3-0 straight up against NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
        4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.9 Units)

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        LOS ANGELES (11-16-0-2, 24 pts.) at EDMONTON (17-10-0-3, 37 pts.) - 12/6/2019, 9:05 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        LOS ANGELES is 213-270 ATS (-88.7 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
        LOS ANGELES is 29-61 ATS (+103.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
        EDMONTON is 34-28 ATS (+3.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
        EDMONTON is 63-79 ATS (-37.5 Units) in home games in December games since 1996.
        EDMONTON is 6-11 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
        EDMONTON is 14-26 ATS (-20.5 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 3 seasons.
        EDMONTON is 11-20 ATS (-14.5 Units) in home games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
        EDMONTON is 10-15 ATS (-8.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
        EDMONTON is 86-102 ATS (-79.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        EDMONTON is 5-5-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
        5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.9 Units)

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        WASHINGTON (21-4-0-5, 47 pts.) at ANAHEIM (12-12-0-4, 28 pts.) - 12/6/2019, 10:05 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        ANAHEIM is 299-230 ATS (+42.8 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
        ANAHEIM is 460-472 ATS (-76.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
        WASHINGTON is 21-9 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games this season.
        WASHINGTON is 32-21 ATS (+10.2 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
        WASHINGTON is 21-9 ATS (+8.5 Units) first half of the season this season.
        WASHINGTON is 133-85 ATS (+28.6 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
        WASHINGTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games after a 3 game unbeaten streak over the last 2 seasons.
        ANAHEIM is 0-6 ATS (+6.2 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        ANAHEIM is 3-2 (+2.3 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
        ANAHEIM is 3-2-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
        3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.8 Units)

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-06-2019, 12:14 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          NHL
          Dunkel

          Friday, December 6



          Chicago @ New Jersey

          Game 63-64
          December 6, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Chicago
          11.099
          New Jersey
          9.662
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Chicago
          by 1 1/2
          7
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          New Jersey
          -140
          6 1/2
          Dunkel Pick:
          Chicago
          (+120); Over

          Arizona @ Pittsburgh


          Game 65-66
          December 6, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Arizona
          11.446
          Pittsburgh
          12.609
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Pittsburgh
          by 1
          5
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Pittsburgh
          -175
          5 1/2
          Dunkel Pick:
          Pittsburgh
          (-175); Under

          Montreal @ NY Rangers


          Game 67-68
          December 6, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Montreal
          11.582
          NY Rangers
          10.573
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Montreal
          by 1
          5
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Montreal
          -115
          6 1/2
          Dunkel Pick:
          Montreal
          (-115); Under

          Los Angeles @ Edmonton


          Game 69-70
          December 6, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Los Angeles
          10.607
          Edmonton
          9.231
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Los Angeles
          by 1 1/2
          7
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Edmonton
          -165
          6
          Dunkel Pick:
          Los Angeles
          (+145); Over

          Washington @ Anaheim


          Game 71-72
          December 6, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Washington
          12.279
          Anaheim
          11.328
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Washington
          by 1
          5
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Washington
          -140
          6
          Dunkel Pick:
          Washington
          (-140); Under
          Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-06-2019, 12:14 PM.

          Comment


          • #6
            by: Josh Inglis


            DECEMBER OF THE PENGUINS

            The Metropolitan Division is possibly the most competitive in the league. The Pittsburgh Penguins are 15-9-2 but still sit in fourth place. The Pens are staying in the thick of the race thanks in part to the Eastern Conferences second-best goal differential at home (+20) and only trail the Boston Bruins for most points on home ice.

            The Crosby-less Penguins (3-2 SU, 3-2 O/U last five) come into Friday’s game against the Arizona Coyotes (3-2 SU, 3-2 O/U last five) winners of their last four and most recently blanked the Cup champs 3-0 on Wednesday. Pittsburgh has taken 17 of a possible 19 points at home since October 29 and have also won five of the last six games versus Arizona including the last five contests in Pittsburgh.

            Take the Pens’ 3-way ML for this Friday night matchup.


            MATINEE MONEY MAKING

            The Vancouver Canucks are 7-4-1 O/U at home this year and have hit the Over in eight of their last 11 games. Since November 15, the Canucks (2-3 SU, 3-2 O/U last five) sit seventh in expected goals for and 28th in expected goals against. Add that up and you get a team that has the second-most goals per game behind the porous Montreal Canadiens.

            The Buffalo Sabres (2-3 SU, 3-2 O/U last five) will continue their West Coast road trip on Saturday in Vancouver as they play the second game of a three-game road trip in four nights. The Sabres are 4-2 O/U in their last six as Buffalo’s penalty kill has been near the bottom of the league for the entirety of the season.

            With the Canucks scoring on 33 percent of their power plays since November 15, we are expecting some lamplighters on Saturday’s 4:00 p.m. afternoon game (1:00 p.m. in Vancouver). We will take the Over at 6.5 and hammer it if it opens at 6.


            BIG DOGS BITE

            Moving to Saturday night, the Los Angeles Kings (2-3 SU, 1-4 O/U last five) will take their nine-game road losing streak (as of Friday) to Calgary (4-1 SU, 2-3 O/U last five) in what will be the backend of a traveling back-to-back. L.A. has not scored more than two goals in any of its nine consecutive away losses.

            Special teams are also killing the last-place Kings as they have the fourth-worst power play since Halloween and are burying their scoring chances at a 12 percent rate which is also fourth-worst.

            The Flames are 0-9-1 O/U in their last 10 as only the Detroit Red Wings have scored fewer goals since November 1. With two of the lowest-scoring teams, we are taking the plunge on the Under 5.5 while also taking the Under 2.5 on the Kings’ team total. We wouldn’t call you crazy either for sprinkling a little on the Kings’ ML as the price will tempting.


            SLEEPY SUNDAY SHOWDOWN

            It has been tough sledding for the Winnipeg Jets’ opponents of late as the Jets are conceding just 2.2 goals against in their last 10 and 1.4 goals in their last five. On top of that, the Jets have taken 15 of a possible 20 points in their last ten and are just six points out of the top spot in the West.

            The Anaheim Ducks (2-3 SU, 3-2 O/U) will play Friday night at home and then make the trip north for their Sunday matinee against the Jets (3-2 O/U, 1-4 O/U last five). The Ducks’ offense hasn’t been generating many scoring chances as they have the sixth-fewest since November 15. Honestly, don’t expect many quality chances in this game with both teams sitting in last and second-last place in shots for and both in the Top-10 in shots against over the last three weeks.

            We like the Jets to keep their opponents in check Sunday and are taking the Ducks’ team total Under 2.5 as well as the game total Under 5.5.


            GOALIE PROFILE: CARTER HART, PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

            It has been anything but a consistent season for the Flyers’ young goalie this year. Carter won his first two starts of the year, then dropped his next four, then won four straight, then lost four in a row and how he is riding a three-game winning streak. We might be able to jump on the netminder for one more victory before his system switches to losing mode.

            The Flyers dropped their first game in regulation in eight games with Brian Elliott in net, meaning the Flyers management will most likely switch over to Hart for the team’s Saturday 1:00 p.m. home tilt against one of the East’s worst road teams, the Ottawa Senators.

            With Hart staying hot and carrying a 1.44 goals against in afternoon games over his short career, we have no problem taking the plus-money puck line (-1.5) even in the uncommon world of early games. The Senators are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road losses while the Flyers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home wins.


            INJURY UPDATE: F MITCH MARNER, TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

            The $10.9 million man has returned to the Leafs’ lineup and saw plenty of ice time with Auston Matthews on Wednesday versus the Avalanche. The young winger looked rusty in his return which didn’t do much to spark a struggling Leaf’s offense even though the team had 26 scoring chances on 39 shots but went 1-for-12 in high danger shooting.

            Things will turn around for the Leafs as they are dealing with some tough puck luck. Toronto has the second-most scoring chances for over the last 30 days but are scoring on just 11 percent of those chances (regular shots have an average of about a 8-12-percent chance of scoring).

            Maybe with Marner back and a game under his belt, it will help the Leafs capitalize as they are getting great chances — third in high-danger chances for — but just not finishing. The Leafs head out on a four-game, out-of-conference road trip with a stop in St. Louis on Saturday night. The money line is hard to swallow with the Leafs’ poor special teams play of late but perhaps they get their scoring touch back against an unlikely opponent.


            HAT TRICK TRENDS

            • The Detroit Red Wings continue to lose, stretching their streak to double digits. Detroit is 0-6 ATS in its last six and 5-12 ATS since November. The Wings will face a hot Penguins team at home on Saturday and a puck line bet or alternative puck line may be in order.

            • If you have been paying attention to totals and first-period totals, then maybe you have noticed that we are at the stretch of the year where the Unders are the majority. Looking at all 31 teams and their last 10 games, only four teams are hitting first-period Overs at 70 percent or better and 20 teams are hitting the Over 1.5 at 50 percent or worse. Looking at full-game totals, the Unders hit at 51 percent last week and 54 percent over the last month.

            • The Winnipeg Jets are the most profitable team this year. Winnipeg is 17-11 SU and would have returned bettors $922 at $100 per game. The Jets’ only game this weekend is Sunday versus the Anaheim Ducks.
            Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-06-2019, 12:15 PM.

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