Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 4/15

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Monday, April 15

Good Luck on day # 105 of 2019!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

— Celtics 84, Pacers 74— Indiana scored 8 points in third quarter.

— Blazers 104, Thunder 99— OKC was 5-33 behind the arc.

— Rockies 4, Giants 0— Marquez had a no-hiiter into 8th inning.

— Cardinals 9, Reds 5— NL Central rivals split pair of games in Mexico.

— Astros 3, Mariners 2— Houston goes to Seattle and sweeps the Mariners.

— Dodgers 7, Brewers 1— LA snaps its 6-game losing streak.


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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sport weekend……

13) I’m listening to Hubie Brown analyze the Spurs-Nuggets game Saturday, and he talks about when he coached games in Denver in the old ABA, when he coached the Kentucky Colonels, who were a really good team. He was talking about the high altitude in Denver.

Then it dawned on me; the ABA folded in 1976, WHEN I WAS IN HIGH SCHOOL.

Hubie is so awesome, so sharp, a pleasure to listen to. Absolutely no nonsense; he was coaching pro ball when I had a full head of curly hair, and thats a damn long time ago.

12) The 1974-75 Kentucky Colonels were really good; they went 58-26, won the second-to-last ABA title, with a roster that included Artis Gilmore, Dan Issel, Louie Dampier, Will Jones, really good players.

Had the Colonels’ owner not sold out to the ABA’s other owners and folded the Colonels (he was later allowed to buy the Celtics as a reward for screwing the Kentucky fans), Hubie Brown would have had a hell of a ballclub to go into the NBA with.

Instead, the Nets, Pacers, Nuggets, Spurs joined the NBA for the 1976-77 season.

11) One thing that disappointed me about Showtime’s 4-part Action series about sports betting is that they never showed the Westgate Theater on an NFL Sunday, which is my favorite place to be on any football Sunday. Just a perfect setup. Food to the left, betting in back, people are respectful of each other. I’ve had some excellent conversations in there with total strangers while watching football.

On a college football Saturday, the Westgate SuperBook is great fun. The SuperBook is a cool place to hang out and the SouthPoint is awesome for baseball/basketball nights, but for an NFL Sunday, a 1,500-seat theater with food/betting is pretty much ideal.

10) Last episode of the Action series last night focused on the Super Bowl, which was a very sad few hours at Armadillo World HQ (I’ve been a Ram fan since 1966). This isn’t an episode I’ll watch more than once. Too soon.

9) FOX should have a much better #1 baseball analyst than John Smoltz, who doesn’t seem to like baseball that much. Listen to him for a few innings and it is obvious he’d much rather be out on the golf course. He should work for the Golf Channel.

8) Congrats to the person who wagered $85,000 on Eldrick Woods this week at 14-1 odds; his payday is $1.19M, about half of what Woods won at Augusta.

7) Baseball injuries:
— Seattle put P Wade LeBlanc (oblique) on the IL
— Braves put P Aroyds Vizcaino (shoulder) on IL
— Boston OF Andrew Benitendi left Sunday’s game after fouling a ball off his foot.

6) First two days of NBA playoffs, favorites were 4-4 vs spread; under was 8-0.

5) Coaching carousel:
— Cincinnati hired Northern Kentucky’s John Brannen as its new coach.
— Utah Valley hired Lakers’ assistant Mark Madsen as its new coach.
— Wofford promoted associate coach Jay McAuley as head coach.

4) James Harden won the NBA scoring title this season by 8.09 points/game, the biggest margin of victory since Wilt Chamberlain won it by 16+ points in 1962-63.

3) It is April 15; Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel are still free agents. Weird.

2) Former Clemson QB Kelly Bryant is playing at Missouri now; when Mizzou had its spring game this weekend, 7 or 8 of his Clemson teammates went to Columbia to watch Bryant play- thats something NFL scouts will take note of down the road. A quarterback being liked/respected by teammates is a big deal to NFL scouts.

1) NFL schedule comes out Thursday; seems like last season just ended.

[Udog]

29Boston -30 Toronto
TORONTO is 18-20 ATS (-17.2 Units) against poor defensive teams - opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal in the 2nd half of the year in the current season.

31Washington -32 Carolina
WASHINGTON is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games after 3 consecutive division games over the last 2 seasons.

33Nashville -34 Dallas
NASHVILLE is 15-7 ATS (7.6 Units) in road games against excellent power play teams - scoring on > 19% of their chances in the current season.

35Calgary -36 Colorado
COLORADO is 22-34 ATS (-16.1 Units) against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game in the current season.




NHL
Long Sheet

Monday, April 15

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BOSTON (50-25-0-9, 109 pts.) at TORONTO (47-29-0-8, 102 pts.) - 4/15/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 21-18 ATS (-8.7 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more this season.
TORONTO is 21-24 ATS (+46.6 Units) second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 12-9 (+4.5 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 12-9-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
10 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.6 Units)

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WASHINGTON (50-26-0-8, 108 pts.) at CAROLINA (46-30-0-8, 100 pts.) - 4/15/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 30-16 ATS (+5.7 Units) second half of the season this season.
WASHINGTON is 116-75 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 22-16 ATS (+5.5 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
WASHINGTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in April games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 68-45 ATS (+3.3 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 46-24 ATS (+11.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after a division game this season.
WASHINGTON is 63-42 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 39-26 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 82-84 ATS (-12.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 15-16 ATS (-6.4 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more this season.
CAROLINA is 23-35 ATS (-19.3 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 132-136 ATS (-79.3 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.
CAROLINA is 48-61 ATS (-38.0 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
CAROLINA is 32-49 ATS (-31.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 11-3 (+6.4 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 11-3-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.4 Units)

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NASHVILLE (48-30-0-6, 102 pts.) at DALLAS (44-32-0-8, 96 pts.) - 4/15/2019, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 232-155 ATS (+63.1 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.
NASHVILLE is 60-34 ATS (+17.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 10-6 (+1.6 Units) against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 10-6-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.0 Units)

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CALGARY (51-25-0-8, 110 pts.) at COLORADO (39-31-0-14, 92 pts.) - 4/15/2019, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 21-12 ATS (+7.3 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
CALGARY is 37-23 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 39-45 ATS (-62.3 Units) in all games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 9-2 (+6.0 Units) against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 9-2-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-1.0 Units)

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NHL

Monday, April 15

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Trend Report
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Washington @ Carolina
Washington
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Boston @ Toronto
Boston
Boston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games on the road
Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Boston

Nashville @ Dallas
Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nashville's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nashville's last 5 games on the road
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Nashville
Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Nashville

Calgary @ Colorado
Calgary
Calgary is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games
Colorado
Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Colorado's last 13 games


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[Udog]

NHL
Dunkel

Monday, April 15


Boston @ Toronto

Game 29-30
April 15, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
11.032
Toronto
10.265
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-120
6
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+100); Under

Washington @ Carolina

Game 31-32
April 15, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
11.518
Carolina
10.653
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
-130
6
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+110); Over

Nashville @ Dallas

Game 33-34
April 15, 2019 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Nashville
11.371
Dallas
12.740
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1 1/2
3
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
-120
5
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-120); Under

Calgary @ Colorado

Game 35-36
April 15, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Calgary
11.245
Colorado
10.045
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
-125
6
Dunkel Pick:
Calgary
(-125); Over

[Udog]

NHL Stanley Cup playoffs best bets and prop predictions: Cashing in on Capitals' quick starts
Monty Andrews

Monday will see four first-round Stanley Cup series shift to the home arenas of the lower-seeded teams, and three of those clubs are in good shape after gaining a split of the first two games on hostile ice.

The Toronto Maple Leafs, Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche have home ice on their side – at least for the time being – while the Carolina Hurricanes will need to hold serve after dropping two road games in Washington.

Here are the top betting trends to monitor for Monday's Stanley Cup action:

BOSTON BRUINS AT TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Moneyline Odds: Boston +100/Toronto -120
Over/Under: 6 goals
Start Time: 7 p.m. ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Series: Tied 1-1

The Maple Leafs will need to take advantage of home ice if they hope to get past the Bruins, and with this series becoming increasingly chippy in Game 2, it could very well come down to whichever team is more disciplined. And Toronto might have an advantage there, having accrued the fewest penalty minutes in the league during the regular season. The Bruins, by comparison, were the most penalized team in the NHL, finishing with 854 PIMs – more than 350 ahead of the rival Maple Leafs. That gives some value to Toronto as the short home fave.

WASHINGTON CAPITALS AT CAROLINA HURRICANES

Moneyline Odds: Washington +110/Carolina -130
Over/Under: 6 goals
Start Time: 7 p.m. ET, PNC Arena, Raleigh
Series: Washington 2-0

The Capitals and Hurricanes ranked in the top third in the league in goals against in the first period during the season but you can throw those results out the window in this series, with the teams combining for six goals in the opening frame. Five of those have come off the sticks of Washington players, which might not come as a surprise to those who know that the Capitals scored the fourth-most first-period goals during the season. Look for these teams to go O1.5 (-125) in the first period Monday.

NASHVILLE PREDATORS AT DALLAS STARS

Moneyline Odds: Nashville +100/Dallas -120
Over/Under: 5 goals
Start Time: 9:30 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas
Series: Tied 1-1

This game actually opened with a total as low as 4.5 goals in some spots and with good reason. The teams have combined for just eight goals in splitting the first two games of their best-of-seven. And one has been the magic first-period number for these clubs, who have scored exactly one goal in the opening 20 minutes in five of their past seven meetings. Given how elite these teams are at preventing first-period goals, there's value in rolling with exactly one first-period tally Monday at +160.

CALGARY FLAMES AT COLORADO AVALANCHE

Moneyline Odds: Calgary -125/Colorado +105
Over/Under: 6 goals
Start Time: 10 p.m. ET, Pepsi Center, Denver
Series: Tied 1-1

When it comes to recent meetings between the Flames and Avalanche in Colorado, scoring first hasn't exactly been a recipe for success. The team scoring first has gone on to lose three of the previous four times these teams have faced off at Pepsi Center, including their last meeting in Colorado on Oct. 14, when the hosts led 2-0 after one period but fell 3-2 in overtime. Given this bizarre trend, taking the "No" on the team scoring first to win the game is a tempting play here at +170.