Announcement

**Udog** · 12-07-2018, 12:42 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Paul Goldschmidt’s % of knocking in a runner from 3rd base:

2018: 17-70, 24.3%

2017: 27-79, 36.5%

2016: 33-95, 34.7%

2015: 33-74, 44.6%

2014: 29-46, 45.7%

2013: 34-76, 44.7%

2012: 25-69: 36.2%

2011: 9-31, 29.0%

**********

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Some college knowledge……..

Request for college basketball fans: If you know of an impact transfer who is going to become eligible this month, please e-mail his name/school to me and we’ll post it for everyone’s benefit, because not every school’s semester ends at the same time.

I have two right now:
Butler- Tucker
Western Kentucky- Bearden.

These two teams will be helped because these kids can play now. Adds some depth and increases the talent level.

For today, I’m looking at college basketball conferences so far this season:

13) Big X:
— Kansas (schedule #10)/Texas Tech (schedule #339) haven’t lost yet
— Iowa State is 7-2 but has been missing four guys for various reasons; two of those guys came back two games ago. Cyclones’ bench minutes are #345, but depth is on the way.
— West Virginia is 5-3, has very young guards, and I’m not sure how they get a lot better, unless those young guards suddenly become good young guards.
— Texas is 5-3, losing at home to Radford/VCU. This is Shaka Smart’s 4th year at Texas- his teams at Texas have played tempo #306-212-316-194.

When he was at VCU, Smart’s teams played tempo #69-156-173-91-22-70. Why the difference, other than pressing/trapping is hard unless your players are better athletes than your opponents.

12) Big 14:
— They’re playing 20 conference games now, so teams play two games in December.
— Five teams started conference play 2-0; five started 0-2.
— Illinois is 2-7, the only team under .500
— Seven Big 14 teams are in KenPom.com‘s top 30
— Nebraska, Northwestern are two most experienced teams in league.

11) ACC:
— Duke is #343 in experience, which is why college hoop handicapping has become so difficult, weighing talent against experience. I want Duke to play Nevada in March.
— Virginia is only unbeaten team in the league.
— Pitt was 7-1 before losing at home to Niagara; whoops- they start three freshmen.
— Louisville is 6-2 vs schedule #86 in Chris Mack’s first season; great job so far.
— ACC has eight teams in the top 32
— Miami lost last four games, with three losses by 4 or fewer points.

10) SEC:
— Auburn/Tennessee are two highest-rated teams, a change from normal.
— Kentucky is 7-1 vs schedule #319; they lost 118-84 to Duke- best team they’ve beaten is #71 NC-Greensboro.
— South Carolina was in Final Four two years ago; they’re 21-20 since. Not good.
— Texas A&M is 3-4 vs schedule #204; they’re experience team #274, Could be a down year.
— Vanderbilt lost its star freshman PG Darius Garland for the season (knee)

9) Big East:
— St John’s is 8-0 vs schedule #322; how good are they?
— Georgetown is 7-1 vs schedule #304; same question.
— Only four Big East teams are listed in the top 50.
— Creighton has made 45.8% of its 3’s (#2) so far this season.
— If you were wondering, Indiana State (48.8%) is #1
— Villanova is playing 5th-slowest tempo in country so far.

8) Pac-12:
— Only one team ranked in top 40 and Oregon is only 4-3.
— USC is 0-3 vs top 70 teams; their five wins are vs teams ranked #198 or lower.
— Washington is #1 in country in minutes continuity; they’re 6-3 with two top 10 losses (Auburn/Gonzaga).
— UCLA is 6-2 vs schedule #229; they’re #351 in experience, with two key freshmen out for year with injuries. Best team they’ve beaten so far is #122 LMU.
— Arizona State is 7-0 vs schedule #282, but they were 12-0 in pre-conference play LY, and wound up 20-12.

7) AAC:
— 4 of the slowest 15 tempos in America are teams in the AAC.
— Temple is 7-2 vs schedule #155 in Fran Dunphy’s last season as head coach.
— Central Florida is 6-2, with two losses by total of 3 points.
— Wichita State is 4-3 vs schedule #112; they’re a total rebuild (#343 in MC).
— Memphis is 4-4 vs schedule #54; Tigers start two freshmen, three seniors. Better beat the Tigers now; Penny Hardaway is going to dominate recruiting in Memphis, which will put them in the top 25 sooner rather than later.

6) WCC:
— #8-rated conference right now; they were 14th three years ago, #12 LY.
— Gonzaga is to the WCC what UNLV was to the Big West 30 years ago; huge fish in a small pond that carries the league’s banner on national stage.
— San Diego beat San Diego State, USF pounded Cal Wednesday; middle of pack in this league has improved a lot, but St Mary’s is a bit down.
— LMU is playing pack-line defense like Virginia and it is working- they’re 9-1.
— If BYU jumps into a league for football reasons, who replaces them in WCC? Hawai’i?

5) Mountain West:
— Nevada is 8-0 and starts five 5th-year seniors; will the coach be back next year?
— Wolf Pack is only team in MW in top 60; its a one-bid league, unless someone beats Nevada in the conference tournament.
— Fresno State is #17 experience team that is probably 2nd-best team in league; they’re 6-2 and start three seniors, two juniors.
— Boise State is 2-5, with losses to Idaho State/Drake; could be a down year, after winning 20+ games the last six years.
— UNLV is turning the ball over 24.4% of time and shooting 27.7% on the arc, which is why they’re 4-3 vs schedule #324- their first road game is Saturday at Illinois.

4) Atlantic 14:
— League was #10 LY and is #10 this year, their lowest ranks since 2007.
— A-14 is down right now: #70 Davidson is their highest-rated team.
— Saint Louis was touted this year, but they’re turning ball over 21.7% of time and making only 29.9% of their 3’s. Despite that, they’re 6-2 vs schedule #217.
— VCU has had six coaches since 2002, and no losing records. Big fish, smallish pond, and no football to take resources away from basketball.
— LaSalle changed coaches but change isn’t always positive; they’re 0-9 this season, with losses to Lafayette, Bucknell, Drexel, Grand Canyon- they wouldn’t be the best team in the freakin’ Patriot League.

3) MAC:
— Buffalo is legitimately good; they won at West Virginia, are #42 experience team.
— Toledo is only other MAC team in top 100, so its likely another one-bid year.
— Rockets are 8-1 and making 41.5% of their 3’s; they’re experience team #81.
— You look at Kent State’s 7-1 record, then you look at schedule #343- no thanks.
— Western Michigan is 4-4 vs schedule #314; they’re turning ball over 22.9% of time and making 29.5% of their 3’s, not a good combination.
— Bowling Green has one winning season since 2010; their coach that year was fired because of an incident in a bar, where the coach was drunk and being a jerk. That coach is now at New Mexico State and his team is 7-1- some schools would’ve built the guy his own private bar.

2) Missouri Valley;
— Defections have crippled this league; Wichita State-Creighton were difference-makers.
— Loyola-Chi is their only top 90 team, and they’ve lost three of last four games.
— Evansville’s new coach is former NBA player Walter McCarty; Purple Aces are trying to play faster- they’ll be interesting to follow the next couple years.
— Drake is experience team #116, but #304 in MC, so they’ve been cobbled together by transfers. Bulldogs are also on their third coach in three years, which doesn’t help, but they’re 5-1 so far this season.
— Northern Iowa won 184 games from 2009-16, but they’re 33-37 the last 2+ seasons, so the coach’s seat has to be getting a little warm.

1) Ivy:
— Yale won at Miami, beat Cal, lost in OT at Memphis; their eFG% is #5 in country.
— Harvard is 4-4 vs schedule #28, but they also lost at #274 Siena.
— Columbia is 0-6 vs D-I teams, vs schedule #329. Could be a long winter.
— Penn Quakers are 7-2, are experience team #63- they start two juniors, two seniors.
— Cornell is #34 experience team, lost by only 8 at Syracuse- did Boeheim take it easy on the Big Red because his son plays for Cornell? (No, he didn’t)

**Udog** · 12-07-2018, 12:42 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Friday, December 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN JOSE (14-10-0-5, 33 pts.) at DALLAS (15-10-0-3, 33 pts.) - 12/7/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 6-10 ATS (-9.4 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
SAN JOSE is 199-154 ATS (+26.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season since 1996.
DALLAS is 17-33 ATS (-29.6 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 24-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 146-141 ATS (-55.7 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 5-2 (+4.6 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 5-2-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+5.1 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (9-13-0-4, 22 pts.) at WINNIPEG (17-8-0-2, 36 pts.) - 12/7/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 14-24 ATS (-13.7 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 78-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 47-28 ATS (+6.8 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 36-12 ATS (+19.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 24-8 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 10-2 (+8.7 Units) against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 10-2-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.8 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (15-10-0-2, 32 pts.) at EDMONTON (14-12-0-2, 30 pts.) - 12/7/2018, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 5-2 (+2.9 Units) against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 5-2-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.2 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (12-11-0-4, 28 pts.) at ANAHEIM (15-10-0-5, 35 pts.) - 12/7/2018, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 48-61 ATS (-21.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 18-37 ATS (+59.5 Units) in road games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 3-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
CAROLINA is 17-26 ATS (-13.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 26-17 ATS (+3.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 5-0 (+6.2 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 5-0-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.9 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 12-07-2018, 09:51 AM

NHL

Friday, December 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

San Jose Sharks
San Jose is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games
San Jose is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Jose's last 6 games
San Jose is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
San Jose is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Jose's last 10 games on the road
San Jose is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
San Jose is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose's last 5 games when playing Dallas
San Jose is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Jose's last 8 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas Stars
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Dallas is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Jose
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Jose
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing San Jose
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Jose
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing at home against San Jose

St. Louis Blues
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of St. Louis's last 14 games
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games on the road
St. Louis is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Winnipeg
St. Louis is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing Winnipeg
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Winnipeg is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
Winnipeg is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Winnipeg is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games at home
Winnipeg is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when playing St. Louis
Winnipeg is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing St. Louis
Winnipeg is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Winnipeg is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis

Minnesota Wild
Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Edmonton
Minnesota is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games
Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton's last 5 games
Edmonton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton's last 7 games at home
Edmonton is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Edmonton is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Carolina's last 11 games on the road
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Anaheim
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Anaheim
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Anaheim
Carolina is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Anaheim
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Anaheim
Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Anaheim is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Anaheim's last 18 games
Anaheim is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Anaheim is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Anaheim is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Anaheim is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Anaheim's last 6 games when playing Carolina
Anaheim is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Anaheim's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 12-07-2018, 10:02 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Friday, December 7

San Jose @ Dallas

Game 51-52
December 7, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Jose
13.142
Dallas
9.887
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Jose
by 3 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Jose
-120
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Jose
(-120); Over

St. Louis @ Winnipeg

Game 53-54
December 7, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
10.081
Winnipeg
12.885
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Winnipeg
by 3
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Winnipeg
-200
6
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
(-200); Under

Minnesota @ Edmonton

Game 55-56
December 7, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
12.440
Edmonton
8.733
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 3 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Edmonton
-120
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+100); Over

Carolina @ Anaheim

Game 57-58
December 7, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
9.361
Anaheim
12.787
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Anaheim
by 3 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
-115
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Anaheim
(-105); Under

**Udog** · 12-07-2018, 03:41 PM

A Wild trend in Edmonton highlights this weekend's NHL betting predictions and picks
Monty Andrews

Visits to Edmonton have been quite beneficial for the Minnesota Wild – not to mention bettors who put their faith in them. Their latest showdown in the Alberta capital highlights an action-packed three-day schedule that includes a faceoff between two teams that have seen plenty of second-period goals, a team from the Sunshine State that can't seem to hold a lead, and an Original Six pairing that has been one-sided in recent years. Here's a breakdown of the key games and trends to monitor this weekend:

One Wild Trend

The Minnesota Wild have been pretty good for a while now but can't seem to get over the hump. Perhaps more games in Edmonton would do the trick. The Wild look to extend one of the most incredible road trends in the league as they head to Rogers Place for a Friday showdown with the Oilers. Minnesota comes into the game having won 14 of its previous 16 visits to Edmonton while holding the Oilers to two or fewer goals 12 times over that span. Oddsmakers have the Oilers as ever-so-slight -115 favorites – and bettors should take advantage by leaning toward the visitors here.

Don't Miss Period 2

If you can only watch one period of Saturday's encounter between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Ottawa Senators, make sure it's the middle one. Both teams rank inside the top-12 in goals scored in the second period entering Thursday night, with Ottawa at 33 goals and the Penguins close behind at 31. But they've also hemorrhaged scoring in the middle frame, with the Senators having allowed a league-high 41 goals and Pittsburgh ranked fifth-worst at 36. Bettors might want to consider taking the second period as the highest-scoring stanza of the game, given the prevailing trends for both teams.

Lead? What Lead?

You can forgive Florida Panthers fans and bettors for being frustrated with the team's performance to date. The Panthers enter the weekend having been downright dreadful when leading after one period, with just two victories against two regulation losses and five extra-time defeats. That 22.2-percent win rate is far and away the worst in the NHL heading into Saturday's meeting with the New York Rangers. And while they might not be "fortunate" enough to lead after one period in that one, it's certainly a trend that bears monitoring until the Panthers find a way to reverse their fortunes.

Montreal Massacred

Original Six matchups are always a treat – but Montreal Canadiens fans might not agree with that assertion when games against the Chicago Blackhawks are involved. The Canadiens will be looking to build on a 2-0 victory over the Blackhawks from their previous meeting Nov. 6 of last season, a triumph that ended Chicago's eight-game winning streak in the head-to-head series. Even with the win, Montreal continued its run of poor offensive efforts against the Blackhawks, having scored just 15 goals in their previous nine meetings. Consider the Blackhawks and the under, a combo that has connected six times over that span.

Goalie Profile

Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets: While the Jets remain one of the most well-rounded teams in the NHL, they could certainly use some improvement in goal, where Hellebuyck hasn't been able to replicate the success enjoyed last season. Hellebuyck enters Friday's game against the St. Louis Blues boasting a 2.97 goals-against average and .904 save percentage, well below his numbers from last season (2.36, .924) – and while his performance hasn't cost the Jets so far, they'll need him to be sharper if they hope to cash in on their +1,300 odds of winning the Cup. On the plus side, Winnipeg has been a red-hot over play of late, going 7-1-1 O/U in its last nine.

Injury Update

The Carolina Hurricanes are on the hunt for more offense – and it doesn't help that they'll be without one of their best two-way forwards for Friday's game against the host Anaheim Ducks. Center Jordan Staal suffered a concussion in the third period of Wednesday's 5-1 loss to the San Jose Sharks and is out indefinitely. And while Staal's absence won't make or break Carolina's offensive fortunes – he has just 11 points on the year – the Hurricanes are much better off when he's involved, having gone 6-1-1 SU when he records at least one point. Carolina has just four goals in its past five games, going 1-4-0 over that stretch.

Hat Trick Trends

Road favorites tend to yield better payouts than their home counterparts – and that has meant a tidy profit for betters who have played the road faves over the past seven days. Entering Thursday, those teams have gone an incredible 13-4-0 SU, good for a 76.5-percent win rate. Road favorites are now converting at close to 57 percent for the season.

Looking for a solid player prop this weekend? Consider taking David Pastrnak to score against Toronto when the Bruins welcome the Maple Leafs to town on Saturday. Pastrnak has 10 goals in 13 career regular-season games vs. the Maple Leafs, and struck five times in the seven-game playoff series between the teams last spring.

The Eastern Conference has become a two-team race in oddsmakers' eyes, with the Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning both boasting +375 odds to win the Stanley Cup – the best of any teams in the league. The Nashville Predators own the best odds of any Western Conference team at +650. The defending-champion Washington Capitals are listed at +1,700.

Announcement

Friday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 12/7

Friday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 12/7

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment