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**Udog** · 10-29-2018, 08:57 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Top 6 picks in Week 8 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

1) Packers, +9.5 (1,229)- W

2) Eagles, -3 (957)- W

3) Redskins, even (933)- W

4) Seaahawks, +3 (889)- W

5) Bears, -7 (852)- W

6) Colts, -3 (844)- W

Season record: 25-20-3 (big week for popular opinion)

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….

Eagles 24, Jaguars 18— 4th straight loss for Jaguars, who had four players involved late Friday night in an incident in a London club- something about an unpaid $45,000 bar tab. Yikes.

Jaguars have on-field problems, too; they’ve scored only five TD’s on their last 42 drives.

Eagles lost T Lane Johnson with a torn MCL; the severity of the injury is still unclear.

Have I mentioned how much I dislike 9:30am kickoffs for these London games?

Steelers 33, Browns 18— Forbes Magazine lists the Browns as worth $1.95B; if you owned a ball club worth roughly $2B, and the coach of that team was 3-36-1 in 2.5 years of coaching that team, would he still have a job? He sure as hell wouldn’t if I owned the team.

Seems like Cleveland has a good GM, decent talent on defense, a young QB it can build around, but do they have a head coach who can do the building? Browns have lost 25 straight road games; they’re 8-18-1 AGAINST THE SPREAD in last 26 road games. No bueno.

Steelers are heating up; they’ve scored 41-38-33 points in winning their last three games.

Chiefs 30, Broncos 23— Before the season, Patrick Mahomes’ over/under for TD passes this season was 23.5; he threw his 24th TD pass in the first half of this game, his 8th this year, so if you bet the under, you can toss your ticket.

Broncos lost five of last six games overall; they’ve lost seven in a row vs the Chiefs; they haven’t had consecutive losing seasons since the early 70’s, but they’re 3-5 now and under Joseph, the Broncos are 2-9 vs spread in true road games, 1-6 as road underdogs, which shows that they’re not competitive on the road.

Bears 24, Jets 10— Jets scored 34+ points in their three wins, 17 or fewer in five losses; they went 3/out 29-60 (48.3%) times in their losses, 9-35 (25.7%) times in their wins- they went 3/out six times in 10 drives in this game.

Yardage was 395-207 Bears, who held Gang Green to 12 first downs, 3-14 on third down. Even though this was a methodical Chicago win, seems like something is lacking with young QB Trubisky, who isn’t as accurate a passer as you might like.

Redskins 20, Giants 13— For a team with Saquon Barkley to have a total of only 14 rushes for 37 yards, that not good; Barkley caught nine passes for 73 yards, Beckham caught eight balls for 136 yards but a 1-7 team with two guys like Barkley/Beckham is unthinkable.

In their five wins, Redskins ran for 130+ yards in all five games; they were held to 65-39 in their losses. Considering that the Giants traded off two defensive starters LW, including run-stopping Harrison, you had to figure Redskins would have their way running the ball.

Seahawks 28, Lions 14— Seattle has quietly won four of its last five games after an 0-2 start; they were punting from their own EZ with about 2:30 left- punter Dickson was told to take an intentional safety, but when he saw that Detroit had no defenders on the right side, he took matters into his own hands and ran for a first down instead- game over.

Seahawks ran ball for 176 yards, averaged 12.5 yards/pass attempt on only 17 throws and they were +3 in turnovers. That combination of numbers doesn’t lose very often.

Bengals 37, Buccaneers 34— Cincinnati led 21-0 early, 34-16 after 3rd quarter, but found itself tied 34-all after Bucs benched QB Winston and backup Fitzpatrick rallied Tampa on 78, 88-yard TD drives. Bucs gained a franchise-record 576 yards, but still lost and now they probably have to bench their franchise QB, who was also suspended for Weeks 1-3 this season.

Tampa Bay fired DC Mike Smith couple weeks ago, so they can’t blame him for this mess, which was 27-9 at halftime. Bucs allowed an average of 39.8 ppg in their four road games- they’re 3-6-1 in last ten games as road underdogs. This is a team with talent but a messed-up QB situation; will Dirk Koetter get to clean it up?

The two head coaches in this game both went to college at Idaho State; Marvin Lewis worked for Koetter’s dad for a while when he was at ISU. Small world.

Panthers 36, Ravens 21— There is a reason that when Troy Aikman got inducted into the Hall of Fame, the guy who introduced him was Norv Turner; he’s that good an offensive coordinator, and now Cam Newton is benefitting from Turner’s expertise.

Carolina won four of its last five games; they’re 4-0 at home- they’re 17-8-1 in last 26 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Ron Rivera is a very good coach.

Ravens are 0-3 when they allow more than 14 points.

Colts 42, Raiders 28— Oakland lost its last four games; in their six losses, they were outscored 112-41 in 2nd half- just like the Giants, when you trade off starters for draft picks, it sends the message that the coaches/front office quit on this season.

In their last three games, Raiders allowed opponents to convert 25-39 third down plays; they lost field position by 14-22-10 yards in those games.

Colts scored 34-37-42 points in their last three games; Andrew Luck looks sharp.

Cardinals 18, 49ers 15— Niners led 15-3 with 12:00 left, but Rosen led TD drives of 62-78 yards as Arizona scored winning TD with 0:34 left. Cardinals have two wins this season, both against the 49ers. In its last three games, Arizona lost field position by 11-14-10 yards.

This was Arizona’s 8th win in a row against the 49ers, who didn’t turn the ball over here after being -12 in turnovers their previous three games.

Rams 29, Packers 27—
— How in God’s name did the 49ers score 30 against Green Bay?
— Packers were very aggressive with blitzes and disrupted the Rams’ offense; LA didn’t score a TD on its first five drives (29 plays, 89 yards)- that doesn’t happen much.
— Rams were 8-18 on third down, Green Bay only 2-8.
— It is zero fun rooting against Aaron Rodgers for 3.5 hours.
— Rams took a 29-27 in last minute, but when they kicked off, the Packers’ returner ran the ball out of the EZ and fumbled when he was hit, depriving Rodgers of a chance for a last drive.
— That is on the Green Bay coaches; Rodgers has to get a chance to win the game.
— This game ended with Todd Gurley refusing to score a TD to make the score 36-27 in the last minute; he simply took a knee once he had the first down, and that was that. it affected both the point spread and the total, not to mention a ton of fantasy leagues. Oh well.

Saints 30, Vikings 20— Minnesota led 13-10 in last 2:00 before halftime, and had ball in red zone, but they fumbled and Saints scored TD before the half- they pulled away in second half, scoring four of last six times they had the ball.

NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978; since then, Vikings have NEVER had the same QB start all 16 games in consecutive seasons- thats hard to believe.

**Udog** · 10-29-2018, 09:03 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Monday, October 29

Calgary @ Toronto

Game 51-52
October 29, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Calgary
10.136
Toronto
12.133
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-140
6
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-140); Under

Minnesota @ Vancouver

Game 53-54
October 29, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
11.865
Vancouver
9.894
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
-140
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-140); Under

NHL
Long Sheet

Monday, October 29

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CALGARY (5-5-0-1, 11 pts.) at TORONTO (8-3-0-0, 16 pts.) - 10/29/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 20-14 ATS (+37.7 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 385-400 ATS (-26.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-1 (+2.0 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-1-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.0 Units)

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MINNESOTA (6-2-0-2, 14 pts.) at VANCOUVER (6-6-0-0, 12 pts.) - 10/29/2018, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 4-2 (+5.2 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
VANCOUVER is 4-2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.1 Units)

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NHL

Monday, October 29

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Trend Report
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Calgary Flames
Calgary is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Calgary is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games
Calgary is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Calgary is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games on the road
Calgary is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Calgary is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Calgary is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Calgary's last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games
Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 8 games at home
Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Calgary
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Calgary
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing at home against Calgary

Minnesota Wild
Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Vancouver
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing Vancouver
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
Minnesota is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games
Vancouver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Vancouver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Vancouver's last 9 games
Vancouver is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Vancouver is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Vancouver's last 21 games at home
Vancouver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Vancouver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Vancouver's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Vancouver is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Vancouver is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Vancouver's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

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**Udog** · 10-29-2018, 10:24 AM

Tough break for the 1st place Toronto Maple Leafs as star center Auston Matthews will miss a minimum of four weeks with a shoulder injury.
The Leafs are favorites at +475 to win the 2018-19 Stanley Cup

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Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 10/29

Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 10/29

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