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**Udog** · 05-16-2018, 08:48 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Odds on some longshots to win the college basketball national title next April:

200-1– St Mary’s Gaels

300-1— UConn Huskies

500-1— Colorado Buffaloes

1,000-1— Richmond Spiders

2,000-1— Montana Grizzlies

5,000-1— Cal State-Fullerton Titans

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

13) I usually have a great time sitting in the sportsbook here at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas; usually find lot of interesting people to talk to. Comfortable chairs, big screens to watch the games on. Had great fun watching games Monday, but last night……..

I’m sitting there last night, and this guy sits in the chair next to me, on my right; within 90 seconds, he starts in by criticizing every team he has bet on. For the next two hours, I heard in loud and obscene terms:

— Washington Caps pass too much in the offensive zone.
— Mike Matheny doesn’t know how to make a lineup.
— Matt Carpenter shouldn’t bat 2nd.
— The Flaherty kid pitching for St Louis should be in AAA.
— Matt Chapman sucks as a third baseman.
— Matt Carpenter shouldn’t be playing.
— Daniel Mengden can’t field his position. And on and on………..

12) Now two of those guys play for the Oakland A’s, and if you know me, you know I’ve been an A’s fan since 1965, when Phil Roof was the A’s catcher and Jose Tartabull played the outfield. I love the freakin’ A’s. I’m biting my tongue so hard with this guy it hurts.

He bet the Cardinals and A’s in the first five innings; both bets win, but he doesn’t say one positive word about either team. He loses his NHL wager. I am considering whether he has Tourette’s syndrome or is just a degenerative gambler without any filter at all.

11) He blurts out “Winner, winner, chicken dinner” as the 5th inning ends in the A’s game, and goes to cash his ticket. I say to him “Mengden won the game for you” and he protests with a profanity (“He can’t field his (bleep)ing position”) as he storms off, never to be seen again.

Should’ve said something about an hour earlier…….

10) Robinson Cano gets an 80-game suspension for failing a drug test; weird timing, since he broke his hand Sunday, and the suspension/injury will be served at same time. Cano will be eligible again in late August, but if Seattle makes the playoffs, he is ineligible to play in them.

Cano loses roughly $11.85M with the suspension; Mariners can use that money to try and replace him, or fortify their team somewhere else. Seattle is 24-17 with roughly 25% off the season gone; they’re half-game out of the 2nd Wild Card spot.

9) David Tepper, a billionaire hedge-fund manager who owned a small part of the Steelers, will buy the Carolina Panthers for $2.2B or so and keep the team in Charlotte. Mr Tepper is said to be paying cash to buy the team. 2.2 billion dollars. In cash.

I can barely afford a team in my fantasy league. Good for him.

8) Supreme Court has opened the door for states other than Nevada to start taking bets on sports; New Jersey is already rumored to be starting on Memorial Day.

7) New York-Washington baseball game was suspended in the middle of the 6th inning last night, with game 3-3; it’ll be resumed at 5:05 ET today, and then the regularly-scheduled game will be played.

Orioles-Phillies got rained out last night; that game will be made up July 12.

6) Guy named Tom Haberstroh is a better man than I am; he counted how many times each team dribbled in the Rockets-Warriors game Monday. Houston 1,105, Warriors 812.

Point being that part of Golden State’s greatness is that they get great spacing and they find open men quickly with passes, the way basketball should be played. Plus the open men they find can all shoot, otherwise it would be pointless to get them the ball.

5) Phoenix Suns won the NBA Lottery, so they get the first pick in the draft; seeing as they already hired a foreign-born coach who was once coached international prospect Luka Doncic on a national team, you’d think he’ll be the choice, yes?

But Deandre Ayton played one season for the Arizona Wildcats; most people seem to think he is the best player in the draft. We’ll see what the Suns do.

Sacramento/Atlanta pulled upsets and moved up to the 2nd and 3rd spots in the draft.

4) Arizona Diamondbacks lost star CF AJ Pollock (broken wrist) for 4-6 weeks.

3) You can wager on what color hat the Queen of England will be wearing at the royal wedding this weekend. Green is the current favorite, bet down to even money.

2) So you bet the Astros-Angels game last night; maybe you bet the game because Fielden Culbreth was the home plate ump, but Culbreth got drilled in the mask by a foul ball in the 3rd inning and was replaced by CB Bucknor, who is more of a pitcher’s umpire.

Sometimes stuff happens during a game and it either helps you or hurts you from a gambling perspective; when you’re hot, things fall your way. When you’re cold, you lose replay challenges and guys drop fly balls on you. Part of what makes gambling so challenging.

1) I made a wager on the Dodgers-Marlins game last night, forgetting that they can’t show Dodger games here in Las Vegas unless they’re on national TV. Las Vegas for some stupid reason, is considered part of the LA market, so their games get blacked out.

Think I realized all this about 30 seconds before the talkative gambler sat next to me and brightened up my world. Today will be a better day!!!!

**Udog** · 05-16-2018, 09:24 AM

NHL Western Conference final Game 3 betting preview and odds: Jets at Golden Knights

Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights (-135, 5.5)

Series tied 1-1.

Playing on the road has not fazed the Winnipeg Jets in the Stanley Cup playoffs, and they need to continue that strong play away from home as the Western Conference finals shift to Las Vegas for Game 3 Wednesday against the Golden Knights. Vegas snatched home ice with a gritty 3-1 victory Monday in Game 2 at Winnipeg, and now the Jets - who have lost in regulation just once in six road games during the postseason - look to respond as the Golden Knights did Monday.

But nobody in the Jets locker room is panicking after losing one home contest, and as defenseman Jacob Trouba offered to reporters after Monday’s game: “We like our road game. We like where it was in the Nashville series, and we’re going to try and bring the same effort.” The Golden Knights, who did not face the type of firepower Winnipeg possesses in the opening two rounds, nonetheless shook off a Game 1 loss by surviving an early onslaught against goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, building a 2-0 lead and making life uncomfortable in the neutral zone for the Jets. Forward Jonathan Marchessault, who labeled Game 2 a “must win,” backed it up with two goals to lead a spirited effort that has the expansion Golden Knights poised to take the series lead on home ice. “Every time we need a big game out of our group, we show up,” Marchessault told the media after the game. “I think we showed the hockey world that we earned the right to be here, and we are able to play against a great team.”

TV: 9 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network, CBC, Sportsnet, TVA

SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):

LINE HISTORY: The host Vegas Golden Knights opened as -145 moneyline favorites but action on the visiting Jets has pushed that number down to -135 as of Tuesday night. The total hit betting boards at 5.5 and has yet to move.

CONSENSUS: There could be some sharp action on the Jets as the line has moved in their favor despite seeing just 29 percent of wagers according to the public. The Over is seeing the slight edge in totals action with 70 percent of the bets.

GOALIE SHOWDOWN:
W L OTL GAA Save % SO
Connor Hellebuyck 44 11 9 2.36 .924 6
Marc-Andre Fleury 29 13 4 2.24 .927 4

INJURY REPORT:

Jets - D Dmitry Kulikov (Out Indefinitely, Back).

Golden Knights - LW David Perron (Probable, Illness), LW William Carrier (Questionable, Upper Body), D Clayton Stoner (Out Indefinitely, Abdominal).

ABOUT THE JETS (61-24-9-2, 46-47 O/U): Winnipeg did not play poorly in Game 2, but were nowhere near as sharp as they were in the series opener and were victimized several times by turnovers and sloppy puck handling. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck made 25 saves, but gave up Marchessault’s second goal 88 seconds after forward Kyle Connor’s power-play marker pulled the Jets within one in the third period. Connor’s linemates - forward Blake Wheeler and center Mark Scheifele - have combined for 15 goals and 36 points in the postseason but were held off the scoresheet in Game 2.

ABOUT THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS (60-26-5-3, 46-44 O/U): Marchessault leads Vegas in playoff goals (six) and points (15), and the 5-9 forward finished plus-2 Monday while sparking his line of center William Karlsson and forward Reilly Smith to a combined plus-6 finish. Fleury, who gave up three goals in the opening 7:35 of Game 1, fended off several good scoring chances in the opening minutes Monday en route to a 30-save performance. Vegas was much better in several areas in Game 2, blocking 21 shots and winning 51 percent of faceoff attempts.

MATCHUP CHART:

TRENDS:

* Jets are 21-7 in their last 28 vs. Pacific.
* Golden Knights are 14-2 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 6-2 in Jets' last 8 road games.
* Under is 12-5-2 in Golden Knights' last 19 games following a win.

**Udog** · 05-16-2018, 09:25 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Wednesday, May 16

Winnipeg @ Vegas

Game 3-4
May 16, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
12.842
Vegas
14.604
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vegas
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vegas
-140
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Vegas
(-140); Over

NHL
Long Sheet

Wednesday, May 16

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WINNIPEG (61-25-0-10, 132 pts.) at VEGAS (60-27-0-7, 127 pts.) - 5/16/2018, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VEGAS is 61-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) in all games this season.
VEGAS is 34-18 ATS (+12.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VEGAS is 20-12 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
WINNIPEG is 61-36 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games this season.
WINNIPEG is 30-25 ATS (+60.3 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 38-19 ATS (+9.8 Units) second half of the season this season.
WINNIPEG is 32-13 ATS (+14.8 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
WINNIPEG is 13-5 ATS (+7.2 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game this season.
WINNIPEG is 34-22 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WINNIPEG is 24-12 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 3-2 (+1.5 Units) against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
VEGAS is 3-2-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.0 Units)

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NHL

Wednesday, May 16

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Trend Report
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Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Winnipeg is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
Winnipeg is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 8 games on the road
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Vegas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
Vegas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Vegas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

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Announcement

Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 5/16

Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 5/16

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