Announcement

**Udog** · 03-28-2018, 08:07 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Odds on teams to make the playoffs this season:

Washington Nationals: Yes -$700, No +$500

Toronto Blue Jays: Yes +$250, No -$310

Texas Rangers: Yes +$500, No -$700

Tampa Bay Rays: Yes +$800, No -$1,400

St Louis Cardinals: Yes even, No -$120

Seattle Mariners: Yes +$200, No -$250

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings……

13) I love numbers, but the analytics revolution in baseball is overdone. There is no way you can quantify a player’s value to the team with a single number— too many variables are involved that cannot be and never will be able to be measured. Here is one example that actually happened:

Two years ago, Player A and Player B were teammates; Player A was getting paid to wear a certain make of spikes, but he wasn’t wearing them. One day, while Player A was talking to the sales rep from the company that was paying him, Player B comes over and tells the sales rep that Player A isn’t wearing his company’s spikes. A fight ensues in the clubhouse.

Player B gets his ass kicked and goes on the DL; Player A gets suspended and the team suffers, since they weren’t very good to begin with and they were now without two decent hitters.

So, analytics people, quantify that for me; make that a part of WAR, when a guy is such a cruddy teammate that his teammate is provoked into kicking his butt!?!? These players live/travel together from March-September. Being a good teammate is an underrated variable.

12) March 22, 2014, the Astros released JD Martinez, just let him walk. He’s hit 128 HR’s in the four years since, and now makes $22M a year in Boston. Astros are now World Champs, despite giving away a player of Martinez’ ability- they’ve won 271 games the last three years. Go figure.

11) Pitt Panthers named Duke assistant Jeff Capel their new head basketball coach; he was previously head coach at VCU, Oklahoma before spending seven years as a Duke assistant. Capel was 79-41 as VCU’s coach (50-22 in conference), 83-69 at Oklahoma (33-43 in conference).

10) Detroit Lions team president Rod Wood said a main reason Detroit didn’t win its bid to host the NFL Draft this year was a date conflict at Ford Field with a robotics convention. Oy.

Detroit also has to start the 2018 season on the road because Ford Field is booked for a concert on September 9— Ed Sheeran, whose concert tour is messing with the first half of the NFL schedule in several cities.

9) When basketball Hall of Famer Bill Walton was in high school/college, he once went 5.5 years without losing a game. His HS team won its last 16 games his junior year and he didn’t lose again until the second half of his senior year at UCLA.

8) Las Vegas Golden Knights were 500-1 to win the Stanley Cup when their first NHL season started back in October. Now they’re 7-1 to win the Cup. Best expansion season ever in any of the four major sports.

St Louis Blues made the Stanley Cup finals in 1968, but that was when the league expanded from 6 to 12 teams and the six new teams were all in the West, so one of them had to make the finals.

7) Interesting quirk to this year’s baseball schedule; A’s visit San Francisco the last three games before the All-Star break, then the Giants visit Oakland the first three games after the break.

6) Louisville paid a search firm $150,000 to find its new athletic director- they wound up hiring the guy who was the interim AD. So they gave a search firm $150K to hire the guy who was already in the job. Something is amiss…….

5) Speaking of the Cardinals, Louisville hired Xavier coach Chris Mack as its new basketball coach, which is a kick in the teeth to the Big East. Mack is a Xavier alum who was a 2-year captain of the Musketeers, but as the saying goes, “Whenever you don’t think its about the money, remember: Its always about the money.”

Mack was making just under $1.7M a year at Xavier; he’s making $4M now. His wife is from Louisville, but the $4M was the deal-maker, for sure.

4) Does New Jersey Giants coach Pat Shurmur have special insight into college players in this year’s draft? His son Kyle is Vanderbilt’s quarterback, who played against NC State LB Bradley Chubb in the 2016 independence Bowl. Giants may very well draft Chubb next month.

3) Butler/Florida will play a home/home basketball series the next two years; the series was negotiated by the two head coaches……on Twitter. Welcome to 2018.

2) ESPN had a mike on Mookie Betts while he was playing right field for the Red Sox Tuesday; as a ball was hit over his head into the corner, he says, “I ain’t getting this one, boys.” They were talking to him in between pitches while the game was going on. Good TV, but one more example of how spring training might be a little too long.

1) Former major league catcher Paul Loduca was on TVG as a horse race handicapper; he likes gambling. Here are his over/under team win total picks for 2018:
Twins, over 83.5 wins
Red Sox, over 91.5 wins
Rockies, over 81.5 wins
Cardinals, under 86 wins

**Udog** · 03-28-2018, 08:31 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Wednesday, March 28

Florida @ Toronto

Game 51-52
March 28, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida
11.987
Toronto
10.842
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-160
6
Dunkel Pick:
Florida
(+140); Over

NY Rangers @ Washington

Game 53-54
March 28, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Rangers
11.599
Washington
10.769
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Rangers
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-260
5
Dunkel Pick:
NY Rangers
(+220); Under

Philadelphia @ Colorado

Game 55-56
March 28, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
11.045
Colorado
9.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
-145
6
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+125); Over

Arizona @ Vegas

Game 57-58
March 28, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
11.657
Vegas
10.237
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vegas
-260
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+220); Under

NHL

Wednesday, March 28

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Trend Report
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FLORIDA @ TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Florida

NY RANGERS @ WASHINGTON
NY Rangers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Rangers's last 5 games on the road
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Rangers
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

ARIZONA @ VEGAS
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Vegas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vegas's last 5 games

PHILADELPHIA @ COLORADO
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Colorado is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games at home
Colorado is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games at home

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**Udog** · 03-28-2018, 10:33 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 28

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FLORIDA (39-28-0-7, 85 pts.) at TORONTO (45-24-0-7, 97 pts.) - 3/28/2018, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 23-14 ATS (+6.4 Units) second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-6 (+0.9 Units) against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 6-6-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.4 Units)

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NY RANGERS (33-35-0-8, 74 pts.) at WASHINGTON (45-24-0-7, 97 pts.) - 3/28/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY RANGERS are 11-23 ATS (+36.4 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
NY RANGERS are 2-14 ATS (+23.1 Units) in road games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game this season.
WASHINGTON is 46-31 ATS (+94.1 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 31-9 ATS (+14.2 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 14-2 ATS (+10.9 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 128-123 ATS (+266.4 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 7-5 (+0.2 Units) against the spread versus NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 7-5-0 straight up against NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.9 Units)

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PHILADELPHIA (38-25-0-14, 90 pts.) at COLORADO (41-27-0-8, 90 pts.) - 3/28/2018, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 51-83 ATS (+134.7 Units) in road games in March games since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 21-35 ATS (-15.4 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 42-35 ATS (+82.3 Units) in all games this season.
COLORADO is 16-4 ATS (+20.7 Units) in a home game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
COLORADO is 23-16 ATS (+5.4 Units) second half of the season this season.
COLORADO is 19-12 ATS (+6.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
COLORADO is 16-11 ATS (+29.6 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 60-58 ATS (+129.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 (+0.0 Units) against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.0 Units)

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ARIZONA (26-39-0-11, 63 pts.) at VEGAS (48-21-0-7, 103 pts.) - 3/28/2018, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 26-51 ATS (+96.5 Units) in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 28-67 ATS (+128.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 11-43 ATS (+94.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
VEGAS is 49-28 ATS (+92.9 Units) in all games this season.
VEGAS is 18-6 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. division opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 4-0 (+4.6 Units) against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
VEGAS is 4-0-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

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Announcement

Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 3/28

Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 3/28

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