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**Udog** · 11-29-2017, 08:21 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Some trends for Week 12 of the NFL

— Bears failed to cover last five games as a home favorite.

— Atlanta is 6-15 in its last 21 games as a home favorite.

— Bengals covered six of last seven tries as a home underdog.

— Denver is 0-7 vs spread the last seven weeks.

— Carolina covered six of its last eight games.

— Cowboys are 8-20 vs spread as a divisional home favorite.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings……..

13) Eli Manning will take a seat Sunday and Geno Smith will start for the Giants Sunday in Oakland. Last Giants’ QB to start instead of Manning? Hall of Famer Kurt Warner, in 2004.

12) Auburn beat Georgia a few weeks ago, now the teams meet again in SEC title game; the surprising fact is this— last six SEC title games that were rematches, the team that won the first meeting also won the second meeting. I wouldn’t have guessed that.

11) Duke football coach David Cutcliffe turned down Tennessee? Really? Cutcliffe was the Vols’ OC during the Peyton Manning years, the Ole Miss coach during the Eli Manning years, but he has found the Duke job as a good place to work.

Ole Miss ran Cutcliffe off despite the Rebels going 44-29 (25-23 in SEC games) under his tutelage. Tennessee is a bigger fishbowl than Ole Miss, so Cutcliffe said no thanks.

10) Dak Prescott will get very rich someday, in part because of the training he got playing for Dan Mullen at Mississippi State.

Dan Mullen just got really rich, in part of because of how well Prescott played for him at Miss State. Hopefully the two of them send each other Christmas cards and thank each other, maybe even exchange expensive gifts.

9) Blake Griffin sprained his MCL, is likely out 6-8 weeks for the Clippers, who are relieved the injury wasn’t worse.

8) Lonzo Ball shot 41.2% on 3’s last year, 67.3% on foul line, 73% inside the arc, so I refuse to say “He can’t shoot”, but he ain’t shooting well this year (24.5% of 3’s, 42.9% of FT’s, 30.9% inside arc). Whether his problem is mental or physical, who knows?

Don MacLean, who does studio work on Clipper games, was saying Monday night that Ball’s shooting problem is a mechanical flaw that won’t be easy to fix. Seeing how Ball’s father is also his trainer, we’ll see if the problem gets fixed.

7) Virginia 49, Wisconsin 37— Why would ESPN match these two teams for a TV game? They both play slowish, unattractive styles; at least they were smart enough to put the game up against Monday Night Football, so we could easily pass on watching it.

6) Actors Matt Damon/Edward Norton made the great poker movie Rounders in 1998; that summer, both actors played for real in the main event at the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas.

Damon got knocked out of the Main Event by poker legend Doyle Brunson; Damon had pocket kings, but Brunson had pocket aces. Would be fun if there was video of that hand.

5) Daytime TV is generally horrible, but SEC Network has an hour-long show called Thinking Out Loud which is worth watching. Think it is on Monday and Friday for an hour, with Greg McElroy and Marcus Spears talking mostly about college football.

If ESPN was smart, they’d give those two their own talk show on a regular basis; they’re smart, have a sense of humor and are fun to listen to.

4) I’m reading baseball articles and I see these names mentioned as trade chips this winter:

Stanton-Abreu-Ozuna-Santana. Good grief, they’re all on my fantasy team. Had a good season last year, I don’t need lot of guys changing teams, though if one or two of them got traded to the Phillies and that tiny ballpark, I wouldn’t mind.

3) Jimmy Garoppolo and Geno Smith will be the 50/51st QB’s to start an NFL game this year; all of last year, 54 different quarterbacks started a game.

2) ESPN’s Herm Edwards interviewed for the Arizona State coaching job, which is interesting and could signal that Herm is gone from ESPN when their next round of personnel cuts happen.

1) Ole Miss gave interim football coach Matt Luke the full-time head coaching job- they posted his contract on Twitter. Here are some particulars of his contract:

— Luke’s salary is $12.6M, over four years (2018-21)
— Luke gets $150,000 for SEC every win Ole Miss gets, starting with Rebels’ 3rd SEC win each year.
— $150,000 for getting to the SEC title game, $400,000 if he wins the title game.
— His bowl bonus is anywhere from $50,000-$250,000, depending on the bowl’s level.
— $500,000 for getting the national playoff semifinals, $1M for winning national title.

— Just for comedy, he gets $100,000 if Ole Miss players have an APR score of 975 or better. Getting to the SEC title game is worth $150,000.

— Ole Miss has a salary pool of $5,135,000 to pay ten assistant coaches.
— They have a salary pool of $2,100,000 to staff strength conditioning crew, video analysts, football operations and other miscellaneous support staff.

College sports is big business, for sure.

**Udog** · 11-29-2017, 08:45 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Wednesday, November 29

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OTTAWA (8-8-0-6, 22 pts.) at MONTREAL (10-12-0-3, 23 pts.) - 11/29/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 63-60 ATS (+127.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 18-14 ATS (+36.2 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 6-4 (+0.4 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 6-4-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.3 Units)

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TAMPA BAY (16-5-0-2, 34 pts.) at BOSTON (10-8-0-4, 24 pts.) - 11/29/2017, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 6-3 (+3.0 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-3-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.3 Units)

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ANAHEIM (10-10-0-4, 24 pts.) at ST LOUIS (17-6-0-1, 35 pts.) - 11/29/2017, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 17-7 ATS (+25.1 Units) in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 17-7 ATS (+6.9 Units) first half of the season this season.
ANAHEIM is 18-8 ATS (+8.0 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 424-425 ATS (+874.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
ST LOUIS is 6-11 ATS (-9.6 Units) in home games after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 18-24 ATS (-19.4 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 4-2 (+2.5 Units) against the spread versus ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 4-2-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

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WINNIPEG (15-6-0-3, 33 pts.) at COLORADO (11-9-0-2, 24 pts.) - 11/29/2017, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 178-153 ATS (+22.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season since 1996.
WINNIPEG is 24-11 ATS (+36.3 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 5-5-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.4 Units)

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NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, November 29

Montreal won its last four games with Ottawa; over is 4-1-1 in last six series games. Senators lost three of their last four games in this building. Ottawa lost its last six games, outscored 21-8; they lost last three road tilts. Four of their last six games stayed under total. Canadiens won last two games 3-0/3-1, both at home, after a five-game skid; under is 8-1-1 in their last ten games.

Bruins won five of last six games with Tampa bay; road team won seven of last nine series games. Lightning lost three of their last five visits to Beantown. Tampa Bay lost three of last five games overall, but won four of last six on road. Three of their last our games stayed under total. Boston won four of its last five games; they split last four home games (over 3-1).

Blues won three of last four games with Anaheim; home side won nine of last ten series games. Ducks lost their last four visits to St Louis. Under is 6-4 in last ten series games. Anaheim was outscored 17-7 in losing its last four games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Ducks lost 2-1so/7-3 in last two road games. Blues won four of last five games overall, four of last six home games- over is 5-2 in their last seven.

Jets won five of last seven games with Colorado; they lost three of last five visits to Denver. Four of last six series games stayed under total. Winnipeg won seven of its last nine games; Jets split their last six road games- three of their last four game stayed under. Avalanche lost six of their last nine games, splitting last four at home. Last three Colorado games stayed under the total.

NHL

Wednesday, November 29

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Trend Report
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TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON
Tampa Bay is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Boston is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

OTTAWA @ MONTREAL
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ottawa's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Montreal's last 11 games
Montreal is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa

ANAHEIM @ ST. LOUIS
Anaheim is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Anaheim's last 6 games on the road
St. Louis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Anaheim
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

WINNIPEG @ COLORADO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Colorado is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games

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**Udog** · 11-29-2017, 07:52 PM

NHL
Dunkel

Wednesday, November 29

Ottawa @ Montreal

Game 51-52
November 29, 2017 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ottawa
11.612
Montreal
10.211
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ottawa
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montreal
-140
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Ottawa
(+120); Under

Tampa Bay @ Boston

Game 53-54
November 29, 2017 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
10.755
Boston
11.616
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-125
6
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+105); Over

Anaheim @ St. Louis

Game 55-56
November 29, 2017 @ 9:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Anaheim
11.665
St. Louis
12.411
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-210
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(-210); Under

Winnipeg @ Colorado

Game 57-58
November 29, 2017 @ 9:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
12.664
Colorado
10.512
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Winnipeg
by 2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Winnipeg
-130
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
(-130); Over

Announcement

Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 11/29

Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 11/29

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