Announcement

**Udog** · 02-22-2017, 08:30 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Westgate’s odds to win the Masters in April:

13-2— Jordan Spieth

8-1— Dustin Johnson

12-1— Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama

15-1— Justin Rose

25-1— Bubba Watson

100-1— Eldrick Woods

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings……..

13) Big change for the Lakers Tuesday; they fired GM Mitch Kupchak after 17 years, they removed co-owner Jim Buss from the front office and they fired publicist John Black, who has been with the Lakers for 27 years. Co-owner Jeanie Buss actually fired her brother and still has to work with him as a co-owner. Christmas should be fun for them in upcoming years.

According to the Interweb, Kupchak hadn’t talked with Jeanie Buss since November 1.

Magic Johnson now runs this dysfunctional show; he went 5-11 as the Lakers’ coach at the end of the 1994 season. Being a great player and being a coach/administrator are different skills.

12) Agent Rob Pelinka is expected to be named the next GM of the Lakers; he was a sub on the Fab Five Michigan teams with Jalen Rose and Chris Webber. He was also Kobe Bryant’s agent, which makes him familiar with the inner workings of the Lakers organization.

Pelinka’s current NBA clients include James Harden, Eric Gordon and Andre Iguodala.

11) Longtime major league umpires Bob Davidson, John Hirschbeck, Jim Joyce and Tim Welke have all retired. Hirschbeck retiring is bad news for pitchers. Davidson retiring is bad news for people who enjoy balks being called.

10) There are four sets of brothers coaching D-I basketball this year:

Scott/Bryce Drew, Baylor/Vanderbilt
Sean/Archie Miller, Arizona/Dayton
Bob/Danny Hurley, Arizona State/Rhode Island
James/Joe Jones, Yale/Boston U

9) Catcher Matt Wieters signed a 2-year deal with the Nationals Tuesday.

8) In basketball, individual plus-minus is the score of the game while that person is in the game. For instance, if I start a game and leave with our team up 20-12, I get a +8 for that segment.

You look at the Denver Nuggets, and Nikola Jokic is +134 in 47% of the team’s minutes. Jameer Nelson is next-best for Denver, at +38 in 53% of the Nuggets’ minutes. Jokic is a valuable guy.

Turning to the 76ers, Joel Embiid is +68 in 30% of the Sixers’ minutes; Jahlil Okafor is -272, in 32% of the team’s minutes. That helps explain why Philly might trade Okafor.

7) Northern Iowa won the Missouri Valley tournament in three of the last seven years; the other four years, they lost their first tournament game. All or nothing.

6) Speaking of the MVC, Wichita State is an amazing 52-19 vs spread in its last 71 regular season conference games- thats against the spread!!! The last three years, Shockers are only 3-4 against the spread in conference tournament games, losing to Illinois St., Northern Iowa last two years in the semifinals of Arch Madness.

5) NBA types who work college games on TV often promote the idea of teams calling a timeout and being able to move the ball up to the front court, the way NBA teams can.

To me, this is an artificial way of creating drama at the end of games. The NBA obviously has the best players in the world, but that doesn’t mean it also has the best rules.

4) I’m constantly amazed at how much coverage the NFL gets on TV; even now, with the draft two months away, ESPN has a daily show on NFL stuff. There really isn’t that much to talk about until the Combine.

Football never ends: Colorado Buffaloes’ spring practice starts today.

3) I’m not fond of basketball teams practicing on game days, college or pro. I can see having a walk-thru to go over scoring reports, but having actual scrimmages on game days is a waste of energy and it leads to more injuries (in my opinion) and decreased energy in games.

2) The Interweb is fabulous; on Twitter, someone posted a 4-page letter a woman sent to her ex, in which she apologized for whatever caused their relationship to end.

The letter was hand-printed, single-spaced and it was four full pages. It appeared to have taken a long time to write and a lot of effort went into it.

The guy’s response? He took a red pen and graded the letter: for grammar, punctuation and usage, making comments in the margin. Then he sent the letter back to her with a grade: D-

I’m thinking the odds of a reconciliation are not good.

1— Seems strange that the ACC tournament is in Brooklyn this year; its like if they held the Big Sky tourney in Los Angeles or if the SEC tournament was in Denver. Makes no sense.

**Udog** · 02-22-2017, 08:30 AM

Weekly NHL betting cheat sheet and odds: One-sided rivalry

There's dominance, and then there's what the Montreal Canadiens have been doing to the Toronto Maple Leafs over the past three years.

Our NHL cheat sheet breaks down the best NHL betting notes so you can handicap the week like a pro, including the rivalry between the Montreal Canadiens and the Toronto Maple Leafs which has been historically one-sided over the last several seasons.

Max Goals in Minny?

Two of the hottest Over plays over the past few weeks do battle Tuesday night in Minnesota as the Wild entertain the Central Division-rival Chicago Blackhawks. Chicago has reeled off six consecutive road victories, each coming in the past seven games; the Blackhawks' offense has been on point over that stretch, scoring four or more goals in all six of those triumphs - including a 4-3 overtime win over the host Wild on Feb. 8. Minnesota reeled off five Overs in a row earlier this month but has settled into more of an Under groove of late, going 2-3-0 O/U in its last five games. The teams are 4-0-1 O/U in their last five games in Minnesota.

More Trouble Bruin in LA?

Every game from here on out is critical to a team's postseason chances - and the Los Angeles Kings wasted two chances to earn two points at home last week as they dropped decisions to Arizona and Florida. A return to Staples Center this week might not bear much more fruit as the Kings face off against a red-hot Boston Bruins team that comes into the week having won four games in a row. The Bruins extended their run in the opener of their four-game West Coast trek, earning a 2-1 overtime win over the San Jose Sharks. But recent history favors Los Angeles, which has won five of the last six home meetings with Boston.

Leafs-Habs Resume One-Sided Rivalry

There's dominance, and then there's what the Montreal Canadiens have been doing to the Toronto Maple Leafs over the past three years. The Canadiens have won 13 consecutive meetings with their Original Six rivals as the teams meet yet again Saturday night at Air Canada Centre. Montreal has nine regulation victories, an overtime win and three shoutout triumphs over that span - winning six straight in Toronto and seven in a row at the Bell Centre. Goal scoring has been a major bugaboo for the Maple Leafs, as they have scored one or zero goals in six of their last 10 meetings with the Habs.

Injury Updates

* The Ottawa Senators are holding their breath about the availability of forward Mark Stone, who took a shot to the head in Sunday's game against Winnipeg and is being treated for a suspected concussion. Stone has six goals and six assists over his past 10 games, during which the Senators have gone 5-5 SU and 4-6 O/U.

* The New York Islanders haven't missed a beat despite being without bruising forward Cal Clutterbuck, who is sidelined indefinitely with a lower-body injury. The Islanders are a solid 5-3-1 SU and 6-2-1 O/U over that stretch, and come into the week just one point back of Toronto for the second Eastern Conference wild-card berth.

Player Notes

* Jets rookie phenom Patrik Laine has been named the NHL's first star of the week after racking up five goals and three assists in four games last week. Laine posted three multi-point efforts in that span - and that usually bodes well for Winnipeg, which is a red-hot 14-1-1 in games in which Laine records more than one point.

* The Washington Capitals have dropped two straight games, and avoiding a third consecutive defeat could hinge heavily on whether Alex Ovechkin can overcome his season-long struggles on the road. Ovechkin has just 10 goals, 11 assists and a hideous minus-9 rating in 28 games away from Verizon Center in 2016-17.

* It appears the Toronto Maple Leafs have finally reversed a strange trend when it comes to games in which rookie sensation Auston Matthews lights the lamp. Toronto won just three of the first 11 games featuring a Matthews goal, but are a scintillating 10-0-1 in those situations since Dec. 22.

Stanley Cup Futures

* The Columbus Blue Jackets continue to be one of the surprising movers in Stanley Cup Futures odds; according to Sports Interaction, the Blue Jackets are a strong +850 option to take home the NHL championship this June. Columbus has faltered of late - going just 5-6-1 in its last 12 games - but remains fourth in the NHL in points.

* On the other side of the coin, the Florida Panthers were seen as a decent Stanley Cup bet prior to the season - and are now struggling to earn a spot in the postseason. The Panthers enter the week a whopping +4,000 to win it all, though that number might see some action with Florida having won four games in a row going into Monday.

* It'll require a healthy Laine and a whole lot of luck, but the Jets could be an interesting underdog selection if it can remain competitive in the Western Conference. Winnipeg comes into this week a single point behind the Calgary Flames for the second wild-card spot, making its +10,000 odds to win the Cup an enticing longshot play.

Over/Under Trends

* Not even a high-end total can contain the Pittsburgh Penguins at home, as they come into Monday's action with a 20-8-3 O/U mark at PPG Paints Arena. The Penguins saw their first 6.5 home total of the season last week, and Over bettors were rewarded with a 4-3 Pittsburgh overtime victory over the Jets.

* The New Jersey Devils have entered the fray as one of the "pushiest" teams in the NHL, recording three pushes in their last five games - all at home. The Devils are 10-11-7 O/U in New Jersey and 11-11-9 O/U away from Prudential Center, their 16 pushes on the season is second only to San Jose's 18.

**Udog** · 02-22-2017, 08:31 AM

Even with NHL totals hitting three-year high, Over is producing cold hard cash

“I think the biggest reason for the higher totals is that there are a lot of these young players coming into the league who are highly skilled offensive players, and they are extremely fast.”

Over the past couple of years, the NHL saw an extensive period during which one could ask: What in the H-E-double-hockey-sticks has happened to scoring?

The entirety of the 2015-16 NHL season didn’t include a single game with a total of more than 5.5. The 2014-15 season had only seven games with a total of 6 or more, the last of those coming on Dec. 29, 2014. It’s all part of a downward trajectory in NHL totals over the past dozen years.

Yet in just the past week, there were three games with totals of 6.5 – on three consecutive nights, no less. And continuing a trend in these contests, the over hit in all three: Winnipeg beat visiting Dallas 5-2 on Tuesday night, host Columbus topped Toronto 5-2 on Wednesday, and Pittsburgh notched a 4-3 overtime home victory Thursday against Winnipeg.

There have been 11 games this season with a total of 6.5, and the over has gone 8-3 in those games.

“Totals are definitely higher this season,” said Greg Sindall, senior oddsmaker for online site SportsInteraction, alluding to an additional 11 games with totals of 6, though the over trend isn’t as strong there. “I don’t know if it’s a short-term anomaly, as it’s been like this all year. Our bettors are certainly betting the over a lot, although the over is always the more popular play in most sports.”

Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US, certainly agrees with that assessment. Bogdanovich doesn’t pay too much attention to hockey outside of the playoffs, but said that when it comes to totals, the NHL is a lot like its more popular peers.

“The higher the total, the more they’re gonna bet the over,” he said. “All the parlays are on the over – 95 percent. That’s just the way it is. In the NBA, baseball, whatever, we always shade to the over, and we’re usually rooting for the under.”

This season’s scoring statistics bear out the need to pump up the total a little more often. The average number of goals per game is 5.56, a marked increase from the 5.42 of the 2015-16 season and the first time since the 2010-11 season (5.59) that the average has been at 5.5 or above.

Sindall said scoring was up right from the get-go this season, so his shop began raising totals about a month into play, particularly in games involving Pittsburgh, Washington, Columbus, Minnesota and the New York Rangers. The defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins lead the league, with their games averaging 6.35 total goals. The first-place Capitals have seen their games just above the league average at 5.58, with the Blue Jackets (5.67), Wild (5.66) and the Rangers (6.05) all well above the league average.

Four teams – Pittsburgh, Toronto, the Rangers and Winnipeg – have cumulative goals per game above 6.0 this year; Dallas was the only team to eclipse that mark in 2014-15 and 2015-16. But Sindall also pointed to certain players impacting betting totals, particularly some of the rising young stars across the league.

“Auston Matthews is definitely on there,” he said of the Toronto rookie, tied for sixth in the league with 27 goals. Cooley also cited Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (20 goals), Toronto’s William Nylander (16), Buffalo’s Jack Eichel (13), Washington’s Evgeny Kuznetsov (12) and Calgary’s Johnny Gaudreau (11).

Matthews and Nylander’s Maple Leafs best demonstrate the goal upswing, averaging 6.14 cumulative goals per game, second only to Pittsburgh.

“I think the biggest reason for the higher totals is that there are a lot of these young players coming into the league who are highly skilled offensive players, and they are extremely fast,” Sindall said. “These guys are making difficult plays at full speed, and it is very difficult for defenses and for goalies.

“There have been some injuries to goalies, and I think penalties are up a bit, so those could also contribute. But I would say the biggest factors are the speed and skill level of these players, and coaches are planning their games around these guys. Teams seem to be playing more of an attacking game because they have such great offensive players.”

The higher totals – and the fact that games posted at 6.5 are seeing the over cash at a high rate – is a welcomed sight for fans of more action and more scoring. Of the 1,230 games during the 2005-06 NHL season, 1,064 had a betting total of six goals or more. The precipitous drop that followed, with the aforementioned seven such games in 2014-15, represented a decrease of more than 99 percent - and there were zero games with totals above 5.5 last season.

Who knew that when Tampa Bay edged visiting Toronto 3-2 in that Dec. 29, 2014 contest, there wouldn’t be another 6 on the board until this past Oct. 22, when Dallas faced Columbus? Or that the Carolina-Washington game on Nov. 28, 2010 – yes, 2010 – would be the last total of 6.5 until the Dec. 17, 2016 clash between Pittsburgh and Toronto?

Now, there have been eight games in just the past month with a total of 6.5 – including three on the same day, Jan. 31 – and the over went 7-1 in those matchups.

“I don’t know how long it will last, but the longer the better,” Sindall said. “Games are so much better when you let these players go out there and do their thing, as opposed to sitting back in some tight defensive system, trying to win every game 2-1.”

**Udog** · 02-22-2017, 08:34 AM

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, February 22

Edmonton won eight of last ten games with Florida; road team won seven of last ten series tilts. Oilers won their last five games here; under is 6-4 in last ten series games. Edmonton won three of last four games; they split last six road games. Under is 6-0 in their last six road games. Panthers won five in row, eight of last nine games; they won three of last four at home. Over is 3-1-2 in their last six games.

Washington is 5-3 in its last eight games with Philly; teams split last four games played here. Under is 5-1-3 in last nine series games. Capitals lost their last two road games which came after a 6-game win streak. Under is 3-0-1 in their last four road games. Flyers lost five of last seven games, three of last four at home. Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.

Anaheim won its last six games wth Boston, which lost four of its last five games in the Pond. Over is 3-1-2 in last six series games. Bruins are 4-0 since changing coaches, allowing total of seven goals; three of those four wins came at home. Eight of their last ten games went over the total. Ducks lost six of last nine games but won two of last three at home. Under is 5-2-2 in their last nine games.

NHL

Wednesday, February 22

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Trend Report
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8:30 PM
EDMONTON vs. FLORIDA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton's last 5 games on the road
Edmonton is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Florida
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida's last 6 games at home
Florida is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

9:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games
Philadelphia is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games

11:30 PM
BOSTON vs. ANAHEIM
Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Boston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Anaheim
Anaheim is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Anaheim's last 22 games

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**Udog** · 02-22-2017, 09:50 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Wednesday, February 22

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EDMONTON (32-20-0-8, 72 pts.) at FLORIDA (28-20-0-10, 66 pts.) - 2/22/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 3-18 ATS (+32.1 Units) in road games after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 6-1 ATS (+4.7 Units) in February games this season.
FLORIDA is 16-5 ATS (+10.7 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 164-187 ATS (+372.3 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
FLORIDA is 196-217 ATS (-79.5 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
FLORIDA is 73-109 ATS (-57.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-2 (+1.8 Units) against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 3-2-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.7 Units)

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WASHINGTON (39-12-0-7, 85 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (28-24-0-7, 63 pts.) - 2/22/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 37-34 ATS (+0.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 29-24 ATS (+59.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 101-51 ATS (+25.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 35-18 ATS (+13.8 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5 or less over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 57-44 ATS (+103.2 Units) in road games in February games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 18-5 ATS (+10.0 Units) second half of the season this season.
WASHINGTON is 53-19 ATS (+18.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 73-83 ATS (-70.5 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 8-8 (+3.2 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 8-8-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
10 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+6.9 Units)

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BOSTON (30-23-0-6, 66 pts.) at ANAHEIM (31-20-0-10, 72 pts.) - 2/22/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 31-43 ATS (-24.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 30-40 ATS (-20.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 506-412 ATS (+38.7 Units) second half of the season since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 241-222 ATS (+501.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.
BOSTON is 187-211 ATS (+455.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 5-0 (+5.2 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 5-0-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.9 Units)

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**Udog** · 02-22-2017, 10:24 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Wednesday, February 22

Boston @ Anaheim

Game 55-56
February 22, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
11.616
Anaheim
13.150
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Anaheim
by 1 1/2
3
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-115
5
Dunkel Pick:
Anaheim
(-105); Under

Washington @ Philadelphia

Game 53-54
February 22, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
12.741
Philadelphia
11.264
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-165
5
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-165); Under

Edmonton @ Florida

Game 51-52
February 22, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
11.993
Florida
8.470
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Edmonton
by 3 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida
-140
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Edmonton
(+120); Over

**Udog** · 02-22-2017, 10:28 AM

Fading NHL teams coming off "bye week" cashing at an incredible rate

NHL "bye weeks" have turned into cash machines for savy bettors fading teams coming off their breaks.

In 2015, the National Hockey League and the NHLPA agreed to add "bye weeks" to this season's schedule, where each team is given five consecutive days off (no practice or games) doled out between January 1 and the beginning of March.

While the "bye week" was negotiated into the CBA as compensation for the players in exchange for the league's wacky 3-on-3 All-Star Game tournament format, it has turned into a cash machine for savvy bettors fading teams coming off their breaks.

As of February 21, there have been 20 teams that have completed their league mandated holiday and those 20 teams are a staggering 4-16 (20 percent) on the moneyline in their first game back. Breaking down this unique situation even further, teams returning from their mid-season vacations on home ice are a pathetic 2-12 (14.29 percent) on the moneyline with teams returning on the road posting a 2-4 record (33.33 percent).

Total bettors are also being treated to a trend worth tracking. While not as eye-popping as the moneyline numbers, Unders are seeing an advantage coming out of the "bye week" with an Over-Under-Push record of 7-10-3 (58.82 percent), and 5-8-0 (61.54 percent) in games featuring a betting total of 5.5 goals or higher.

What does this all mean? No practice during the break means teams are not sharp upon their return? Too much partying in the Caribbean sun (or back home with friends and family) is causing a hangover effect? All of the above?

Whatever the reason, it's time to start paying attention to the 10 remaining teams and their after "bye week" matchups.

Anaheim Ducks - March 3 vs. Toronto
Buffalo Sabres - February 25 @ Colorado
Columbus Blue Jackets - February 25 vs. NY Islanders
Dallas Stars - February 24 vs. Arizona
Detroit Red Wings - February 28 @ Vancouver
Minnesota Wild - February 27 vs. Los Angeles
San Jose Sharks - February 25 @ Vancouver
St. Louis Blues - February 26 @ Chicago
Vancouver Canucks - February 25 vs. San Jose
Winnipeg Jets - February 28 vs Minnesota

Announcement

Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 2/22

Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 2/22

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