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**Udog** · 11-07-2016, 08:33 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 9 of the Westgate Super Contest in Las Vegas:

1) Denver Broncos, even (695)- L

2) Pittsburgh Steelers, even (605)- L

3) New Orleans Saints, -3.5 (575)- W

4) Carolina Panthers, -3 (525)- T

5) Philadelphia Eagles, +2.5 (474)- L

6) Chiefs -7- L/Titans +5 (472)- L

Season record: 18-35-2- rough year for popular opinions

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday
Falcons 43, Buccaneers 28— Tampa Bay is now 17-43 in its last 60 home games; they fired Lovie Smith because they didn’t want QB guru Dirk Koetter to leave, but Winston isn’t playing as well now. This was halfway point of season and Tampa hasn’t won a home game. Atlanta is in good shape at 6-3- they haven’t had their bye yet, either. Over is 8-1 in Falcon games.

Chiefs 19, Jaguars 14— Kansas City had 16-yard edge in field position; they started four drives in Jax territory, kicking three FGs, scoring only one TD, and that was on a 23-yard drive, so if you gave the points, thats why you lost. With 8:23 left and KC up 19-7, Jaguars fumbled on 6-inch line as runner was crossing goal line; they scored on their next drive, but fell just short of pulling the upset. Under is 6-1 in Chiefs’ last seven games.

Lions 22, Vikings 16 OT— Three weeks ago, Vikings were 5-0 and on an 18-2 run against the spread, which rarely happens. Now they’re 5-3, their OC quit and both their OT’s are hurt. In this game, Minnesota scored with 0:23 left in regulation to take lead, then Stafford got Lions into position for game-tying 58-yard FG at gun. Vikings’ PK Blair Walsh missed a PAT and had FG blocked- he might not be employed much longer. Every Detroit game has been decided by 7 or less points. Success in the NFL is extremely fragile.

Giants 28, Eagles 23— Wentz threw picks on first two possessions, Giants grabbed 14-0 lead 5:07 into game; in second quarter, after a Philly FG, Pederson passed up FG tries of 40, 23 yards to try and get a first down, failing both times- they also had a FG blocked, then came up empty in the red zone on their last drive. You get ball in red zone six times and score only 20 points, you deserve to lose. If Eagles kick those 2nd quarter FGs, this might’ve been a different ending.

Cowboys 35, Browns 10— Not much to say here; a complete ass-kicking. During Rams’ game, FOX’s Kevin Burkhardt said “Right now, Dallas is best team in the NFC.” His partner John Lynch responded very quickly/skeptically, “Thats what the records say.” Cleveland is horrible.

Credit to Jason Garrett for this: Cowboys are 7-1 vs spread in last eight games as a road favorite- they win games they’re expected to win.

Dolphins 27, Jets 23— Jets scored in last 6:00 to take lead, but Miami ran kick back 96 yards for game-winning TD. This was Miami’s 4th straight home game, with a bye in between; their next two games are in southern California. Greg Gumbel/Trent Green had this game; they are a better crew than Nantz/Simms, and not because of Nantz.

Ravens 21, Steelers 14— This was Baltimore’s first win since September 25 and they’re in first place in AFC North, which is terrible this year. Ravens scored one offensive TD, a 95-yard pass in first quarter- their other TD was on a blocked punt. Bengals are 3-4-1, only half-game out of first place. Roethlisberger was obviously rusty as he returned too soon from his injury. Ravens are 12-3 off their last 15 bye weeks.

Saints 41, 49ers 23— In their last three games, Saints have run 62 more plays than their opponents. NO is now 4-4 after an 0-3 start. Chip Kelly should take Phil Knight’s $10M and go back to Oregon; 49ers are horrendous. Six of last seven SF games went over the total. Niners were outscored 91-23 in second half of their last five games.

Panthers 13, Rams 10— I could go on for a while about the Rams, but right now, I only want to know one thing; has Jeff Fisher’s contract been extended past this year? No one knows.

If it has been, then what he’s doing with Jared Goff is the proper course of action, let the kid learn on the sidelines and they’ll grow together.

If Fisher’s contract hasn’t been extended, then this is unacceptable, holding the franchise hostage so he can get a new deal, because this Case Keenum-led offense is putrid. Fisher makes $7M a year and right now, his team isn’t good. He really doesn’t deserve the extension.

The last 22 times the Rams have had the ball, their offense has outscored the other team’s defense, 10-7. How much bleeping worse could Goff be?

Colts 31, Packers 26— Misleading score; Indy kicked their butts in this game, running opening kick back for a TD, then running another kick back 61 yards later in first half. Over is 7-2 in Colt games this year. If you had Aaron Rodgers at QB, wouldn’t you get him a couple of really fast WRs? Green Bay scored 58 points in its last two games and lost both of them- they’re not athletic enough.

I’m mad because the Rams are 3-5; hell, the Packers have Rodgers and they’re 4-4.

Chargers 43, Titans 35— Ken Whishenhunt almost hung half a hundred on the team that fired him as HC last year, though they did score two defensive TDs. There is a proposition on the ballot in San Diego Tuesday to raise the hotel tax to pay for a new stadium for the Chargers; it needs 66.7% to pass, but if it gets over 50%, then the stadium is in limbo. Over is 7-2 in Charger games, 6-0 in last six Titan tilts.

Raiders 30, Broncos 20— Oakland ran ball for 218 yards, had 18-yard edge in field position; before this game, most rushing yards Denver had allowed was 157. In their first eight games, Denver’s defense scored three TDs, created field position for 10 TDs where scoring drive was less than 60 yards. Broncos’ average starting position here was their own 19-yard line, worst in NFL this week. Oakland is 7-2 and atop AFC West, with second-best record in AFC.

In baseball news, Colorado Rockies will name Bud Black their new manager Monday morning. Interesting that a former manager willl manage the Rockies, given the problems pitches have had pitching in high altitude.

**Udog** · 11-07-2016, 08:38 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Monday, November 7

Tampa Bay @ Florida

Game 55-56
November 7, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
10.401
Florida
12.810
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida
by 2 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-120
5
Dunkel Pick:
Florida
(+100); Over

Buffalo @ Boston

Game 53-54
November 7, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
9.979
Boston
14.069
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 4
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-165
5
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-165); Over

Vancouver @ NY Islanders

Game 51-52
November 7, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vancouver
9.190
NY Islanders
12.670
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Islanders
by 3 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Islanders
-205
5
Dunkel Pick:
NY Islanders
(-205); Over

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, November 7

Canucks are in freefall, outscored 28-10 during 8-game losing streak; under is 4-2 in their last six games. Vancouver won six of last eight games with the Islanders, in series where road team lost seven of last nine series games. Under is 3-0-1 in last four series games. Canucks won their last four visits here, with three of four wins in OT/SO. New York allowed 13 goals in losing last three games, the last two in shootouts.

Bruins won seven of last nine games with Buffalo; under is 2-1-2 in last five series games. Road team won six of last eight series games; Sabres split last four visits here (over 2-2). Buffalo won four of its last five games; their last six games stayed under total. Boston won three of last four games but they’ve lost three in row at home- over is 4-3 in their last seven games.

Florida won four of last six games with Tampa Bay; last three series games went over the total. Lightning lost three of last four visits to eastern part of Florida. Tampa Bay lost four of last six games, losing three of last four on road- over is 3-0-1 in their last four games. Panthers lost five of last seven games; three of their last four went over the total.

NHL

Monday, November 7

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. BOSTON
Buffalo is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Boston
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Boston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
VANCOUVER vs. NY ISLANDERS
Vancouver is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing NY Islanders
Vancouver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
NY Islanders are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Islanders last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. FLORIDA
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 15 games when playing Florida
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Florida
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Florida's last 15 games when playing Tampa Bay
Florida is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

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**Udog** · 11-07-2016, 10:49 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Monday, November 7

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VANCOUVER (4-7-0-1, 9 pts.) at NY ISLANDERS (4-6-0-2, 10 pts.) - 11/7/2016, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 4-13 ATS (-9.9 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 355-320 ATS (-104.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
NY ISLANDERS are 15-4 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 3-1 (+3.0 Units) against the spread versus NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
VANCOUVER is 3-1-0 straight up against NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.2 Units)

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BUFFALO (5-4-0-2, 12 pts.) at BOSTON (6-5-0-0, 12 pts.) - 11/7/2016, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 135-92 ATS (-10.8 Units) in November games since 1996.
BUFFALO is 6-2 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games in November games over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 266-232 ATS (+28.6 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
BUFFALO is 60-55 ATS (+126.3 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
BOSTON is 10-16 ATS (-11.4 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5 or less over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 6-13 ATS (-13.0 Units) in home games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 8-11 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-6 (+0.0 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.9 Units)

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TAMPA BAY (7-4-0-1, 15 pts.) at FLORIDA (5-6-0-1, 11 pts.) - 11/7/2016, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 39-87 ATS (+143.8 Units) in road games in November games since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 344-393 ATS (-117.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 155-191 ATS (-64.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.
FLORIDA is 50-41 ATS (+1.9 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 120-157 ATS (+295.6 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5 or less since 1996.
FLORIDA is 50-75 ATS (-41.5 Units) in home games in November games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 5-5 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 5-5-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.1 Units)

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Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 11/7

Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 11/7

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