Announcement

**Udog** · 05-21-2016, 08:18 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Golden Nugget sportsbook's college football over/unders for this coming fall..........

-- Houston Cougars 9, under -$150

-- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 9, under -$125

-- Ohio State Buckeyes, 8.5, over -$115

-- Tennessee Volunteers, 10

-- Baylor Bears 9, under -$125

-- Michigan State Spartans 8.5, under -$130

**********

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: College football knowledge, and DDLohaus handicaps the Preakness Stakes........

The Kentucky Derby is behind us and the race really ended as we had expected. Nyquist was all he was said to be; looked great winning the race in a very solid time. The top four favorites covered the top four spots with Exaggerator again the runner up. We couldn't collect on our big bets as Mohaymen could only manage fourth. We did hit the saver exacta but not much joy there....

The Preakness comes quickly and welcomes a host of newcomers trying to not only beat the Derby winner, but launch themselves into the summer spotlight as the racing season continues to crank up. As I sit here in Delaware, the weather forecast for Saturday is BAD; 90% chance of rain all morning into the afternoon and COLD with a high of 57 degrees. The weather forecast certainly requires a bit of restraint in wagering but also introduces a whole other set of variables when handicapping the race.

Nyquist is still the horse to beat. As I've said before, he has done nothing wrong and look really good in the Derby. I am convinced that Exaggerator is as honest as they come and he keeps Nyquist honest. If Nyquist doesn't show up, Exaggerator will turn the tables. These two (Nyquist and Exaggerator) are clear standouts in the 3yr old category so far this year; I just don't see a very deep crop of 3yr olds (yet). The problem is that they are both very short odds AND the weather conditions are sure to make conditions anything but ideal. Talent alone, these two run 1-2 but I challenge anyone to say, for sure, how they will respond to adverse conditions on Saturday.

As is customary, I will throw out a wildcard for you to consider. This runner may be worth a small wager and given the expected weather and track conditions is not a complete reach. Abiding Star is on a bit of a hot streak coming into the Preakness. He has won five in a row and has had success over wet tracks. He will likely be close to the front if not on the lead and may not look back. Distance is a concern and he may be a notch below many in here but horses do get brave sometimes and if he finds himself in front turning for home, the track is heavy and tiring, and the others don't fire their best he may shock at a big price and he would be a nice play underneath the two favorites.

Selections:
Nyquist: Deserving favorite and a notch better than the rest (just cant bet a 3/5 in adverse conditions)
Exaggerator: Honest, hard knocker capable of winning if top one doesn't fire his best (just cant bet a horse that has lost 4 times to top one and short odds)
Abiding Star: Longshot being tested for class and distance but may get brave on the front end and has handled off tracks.

The Bets:
$5WPS Abiding Star
$5EXBX Abiding Star/Nyquist/Exaggerator
$2TRIBX Abiding Star/Nyquist/Exagerator

Total Bets: $57.00

College football knowledge..........
13) LSU's new defensive coordinator last worked at Wisconsin; Tigers, who have 18 starters back, open the season Sept 3 against the Badgers at Lambeau Field.

12) USC plays Alabama, Stanford, Utah in September, none of them at home.

11) Urban Meyer has a 154-27 record, 50-4 at Ohio State; his defensvie coordinator this year is former Rutgers/Bucs coach Greg Schiano.

10) Texas A&M recruited only two of the top 20 recruits from the Lone Star State this year- they're on their fourth offensive coordinator in the last five years. Aggies are 16-10 overall the last two years, 17-15 in conference play the last four years.

9) Contrast that to Oklahoma State, which is 27-12 the last three years; their OC is in his fourth season in Stillwater, their DC is in his sixth season. Continuity helps.

8) UCLA's freshman kicker JJ Molson is the grandson of Montreal Canadiens' owner, beer magnate Geoff Molson; wonder if they'll be selling Molson beer at the Rose Bowl this year. Having a freshman kicker can drive you to drink.

7) Michigan State is 36-5 the last three years, but lost top two WRs and their QB who started for three years. Spartans play Notre Dame/Wisconsin on back/back early on in season. Mark D'Antonio is 7-2 against rival Michigan.

6) Tennessee hasn't won SEC East since 2007; they haven't won the SEC since '98, the year after Peyton Manning left. Vols' over/under win total in Las Vegas this year is 10, so with 18 starters back, Butch Davis' team has high expectations.

5) Mack Brown was 25-14 his last three years at Texas; Charlie Strong is 11-14 his first two years in Austin. Longhorns gave up 30.3 ppg last year.

4) Florida State is 49-6 the last four years; only one of their four September games is at home. RB Dalvin Cook won SEC rushing title by 164 yards LY.

3) Oregon went 9-4 LY, after going 48-5 the four years before that; they lost their bowl game after leading 31-0 at the half. Once again, the Ducks' QB will be a transfer from a I-AA school, this time Dakota Prukop from Montana State.

2) Ole Miss has its first-ever two-game winning streak over Alabama, which is hard to believe. Rebels play Florida State, Alabama and Georgia, all in September. Oy.

1) Michigan is 2-14 against Ohio State/Michigan State the last eight years.

**Udog** · 05-21-2016, 08:23 AM

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, May 21

San Jose-St Louis (SJ 2-1)
Sharks shut St Louis out last two games; San Jose is 6-1 at home in playoffs, losing one game to the Kings. Road team won four of last six St Louis-San Jose games; under is 3-0 in all three series games. Blues won two of last three visits here, three of last four road games. Sharks won last five home games by combined score of 21-7 (over 2-1-2). San Jose is 2-10 on power play in series, the Blues are 0-8. St Louis is 5-3 on road so far in playoffs- they outshot Sharks 22-16 in Game 3, but didn't light the lamp for second game in row

Playoffs tally: 1st round-- Home: 23-24, Over: 16-17-14
2nd round-- Home: 16-9, Over: 11-5-9
Conference finals-- Home 4-3, Over 2-4-1

NHL

Saturday, May 21

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Trend Report
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7:15 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN JOSE
St. Louis is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games on the road
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Jose
San Jose is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
San Jose is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

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**Udog** · 05-21-2016, 09:56 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 21

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ST LOUIS (58-31-0-10, 126 pts.) at SAN JOSE (56-33-0-8, 120 pts.) - 5/21/2016, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 25-11 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN JOSE is 20-5 ATS (+14.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
ST LOUIS is 58-41 ATS (+5.3 Units) in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 28-16 ATS (+11.5 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5 or less this season.
ST LOUIS is 20-11 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games second half of the season this season.
ST LOUIS is 15-6 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 5-0 ATS (+5.0 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive unders this season.
ST LOUIS is 33-23 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 12-4 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
SAN JOSE is 13-16 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5 or less this season.
SAN JOSE is 28-28 ATS (-21.6 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 2-9 ATS (-11.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 3-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in home games after shutting out their opponent in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 16-19 ATS (-23.8 Units) in home games after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE is 8-4 (+3.4 Units) against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE is 8-4-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.0 Units)

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**Udog** · 05-21-2016, 10:09 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Saturday, May 21

St. Louis @ San Jose

Game 15-16
May 21, 2016 @ 7:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
12.036
San Jose
11.052
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Jose
-165
5
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(+145); Under

Announcement

Saturday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 5/21

Saturday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 5/21

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