Announcement

**Udog** · 04-13-2016, 08:23 AM

Betting 101: How to safely bet the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs

The Capitals need Braden Holtby to keep up his hot play if they hope to take the next step and reach the Stanley Cup this postseason.

The NHL playoffs, more so than any other sport’s postseason, are about as different from the regular season as you can get.

Teams that dominated during the regular schedule suddenly find themselves on the brink of elimination, and clubs that squeaked into the playoff picture can catch fire and ride a hot goalie all the way to the Stanley Cup.

In order to help hockey bettors navigate the upside-down world of postseason puck, we asked some top handicappers to share their best tips, tactics, and trends when it comes to successfully wagering on the NHL’s second season.

Hot goaltenders

Like pitching in baseball, goaltending can singlehandedly win a playoff series. Year after year, hockey bettors witness incredible performances between the pipes and make a small mint riding these red-hot keepers.

On the other side of the coin, not having a proven No. 1 goalie can quickly put a wrap on the season – no matter how many goals a team can score. Covers Expert Jesse Schule points to the Pittsburgh Penguins, who have been ushered out of the playoffs the past four years thanks to shaky play in the crease.

When looking to narrow down the field to legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, its always good look at the goaltenders first. Which ones are capable of carrying a team on their shoulders if need be? Who can steal a game, or even a series?

The Washington Capitals are hoping the sensational campaign by Braden Holtby can finally get them over their playoff woes and deliver a Stanley Cup. Holtby finished the season with a 48-9-7 record, just one win short of Martin Brodeur's record for wins in a single season. He also owns a 2.20 goals against average and .922 save percentage heading into the playoffs.

Depth and toughness

Ever watch a hockey player get interviewed about his team’s deep postseason run? More often than not, the guy’s face looks like someone dropped a plate of spaghetti on the floor and then tried to sew it back together.

The NHL playoffs are a grueling challenge of teams’ overall talent and toughness. When a series goes six or seven games, the true depth of a roster is drawn to the surface.

Injuries can spoil an NHL bet faster than a Shea Weber slapshot and knowing which teams are healthy, getting healthy, and beat up entering the playoffs is a good way to gauge just where you should put your money.

Some teams that were banged up earlier this season are healthy now and could perform better than expected, while the opposite could be true of teams suffering through multiple injuries at the moment.

Teams that can get production from their third and fourth lines are the ones who survive, while clubs that rely on a few key players to carry the team often find themselves trading hockey sticks for golf clubs. Opponents draw up schemes to shadow and lock down these stars and force role players to beat them.

It's important to consider depth. Which teams can roll four lines and get steady production from their role players? Unlike other sports, the NHL playoffs aren't all about the superstars. It's the grinders that often decide which team is left standing in June.

Physicality also plays a major role in the outcome of the playoffs, with every hit looked at as an investment. Finesse teams can get worn down over the course of a series while teams that like to lay the lumber excel in the furious pace of the postseason.

“Some teams might not be the fastest and most skilled, but instead they out-work, out-hit, and physically dominate their opponents,” says Schule.

Road Warriors

Another big difference between the NHL playoffs and other sports’ tournaments is the importance - or lack thereof - when it comes to home ice.

In basketball and football, having the crowd on your side is crucial to a championship run. However, in hockey, bettors get great value with road teams in the postseason. Hot home teams like Dallas or the New York Rangers may be good fade bait while tough road clubs, like San Jose, can hold added pop on the road.

“Other than getting the final line change, there is really not much of an edge for the home team,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril. “Obviously, the crowd will be supporting them. But unlike the NBA, it does not influence officials as much, as penalties are normally called evenly and on an alternating makeup basis. NHL playoffs is the one sport where I feel home teams are generally overvalued, especially since travel is not a factor and both teams in a best-of-seven series have the same travel schedule.”

Covers Expert Ben Burns believes each NHL postseason game is unique and doesn't carry as much momentum from one contest to the next. Teams quickly make adjustments, line changes and roster moves based on the game before and can have a completely different feel when they face off next. A high-scoring Game 1 can produce a low-scoring Game 2 with teams tightening up on defense.

Special teams

Referees do tend to let a lot more slide in the postseason compared to regular season action, so it makes it even more important for teams to capitalize on those man-advantages when the whistle does blow.

“It is absolutely imperative to score on the power play, in order to discourage opponents from taking cheap shots at your best players,” says Schule.

Entering the postseason, the Anaheim Ducks boast the top power-play attack in the league with 56 goals with the man advantage and a 23.0 power-play percentage. At the bottom of the scale, the Tampa Bay Lightning boast the lowest power-play percentage in the playoffs at 15.8 percent.

When it comes to playing a man down, the Ducks are just as good at killing those penalties off, as they are at scoring with the man advantage. They rarely got burned with a man in the box ranking first in the NHL with an 87.2 penalty-kill percentage. The Blues and Capitals followed them, each killing off 85.1 percent of their penalties. The Minnesota Wild have the worst penalty kill among playoff teams at 77.9 percent.

Editor's note: This article was originally published in April 2014. Stats and info have been updated to reflect this NHL season.

**Udog** · 04-13-2016, 08:30 AM

NHL

Wednesday, April 13

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Stanley Cup Playoffs: Wednesday's NHL betting previews
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The Blackhawks and Blues will meet in the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in what should be an entertaining, hard-hitting battle.

Get your playoff beards ready! The puck drops on the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs Wednesday night with three games. This is the most wide open NHL tournament in recent memory and it should be a fun ride.

No. 5 Detroit Red Wings at No. 4 Tampa Bay Lightning (A:+135, H:-155, O/U: 5)

The Tampa Bay Lightning have traveled a long, bumpy road to arrive back where they stood a year ago as they prepare to host the Detroit Red Wings on Wednesday for Game 1 in the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. The Lightning won last season’s series in seven games and went on to lose in the Stanley Cup finals before hurdling several obstacles to seal a third straight postseason berth in 2016.

“It’s been an eventful season,” Tampa Bay goalie Ben Bishop told reporters of the injuries and slumps the team endured. “There’s been a lot of ups and downs. It’s kind of nice to accomplish the first goal - to make the playoffs. Now it’s a new season.” The Lightning won’t have captain Steven Stamkos (blood clot) or top-pair defenseman Anton Stralman (broken fibula), but it is possible all their other injured players could be available for the first contest. The Red Wings had to battle their way to a 25th straight playoff appearance, clinching their spot on the second-to-last day of the regular season, and will lean on veteran forwards Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk to show a group of young players the way. Datsyuk, who is contemplating retirement from the NHL after the season, finished with 49 points – one behind Zetterberg for the team lead – and they are expected to play together with Justin Abdelkader on the top line.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network, CBC, TVAS, FSN Detroit, FSN Florida (Tampa Bay)

ABOUT THE RED WINGS (41-30-11, 30-52 ATS, 31-36 O/U): Jimmy Howard, who was relegated to backup duty in mid season, has appeared to regain his No. 1 job from struggling Petr Mrazek after allowing two or fewer goals in seven of his last 11 games (6-5-0). “It’s easy to have great character when things are going well. When things aren’t going well it’s not easy,” Detroit coach Jeff Blashill told reporters of Howard. “He didn’t feel sorry for himself, he went to work.” The Wings need a big effort from rookie forward Dylan Larkin, who tired the last few months despite finishing with a team-high 23 goals.

ABOUT THE LIGHTNING (46-31-5, 34-48 ATS, 34-39 O/U): Top-pair defenseman Victor Hedman, along with forwards Ryan Callahan and Nikita Kucherov, all practiced Monday after missing stretches late in the regular season and center Tyler Johnson (upper body) joined the team on the ice Tuesday. Johnson, who had six goals in last season’s playoff series against Detroit, skated between Kucherov (team-leading 66 points) and Alex Killorn at practice and will be a game-time decision. Bishop, who coach Jon Cooper called a “model of consistency,” led the league in goals-against average (2.06).

TRENDS:

* Red Wings are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Lightning are 8-2 in their last 10 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.
* Over is 5-0-3 in Red Wings last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 9-1 in Lightning last 10 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
* Red Wings are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Tampa Bay.

No. 6 New York Rangers at No. 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (A:+116, H:-154, O/U: 5)

The Pittsburgh Penguins have seen their New York Rangers end their season in the playoffs in each of the last two years, but they will try to turn the tables on their Metropolitan Division rivals this time around. Both teams have myriad injury issues entering Game 1 of the best-of-seven series at Pittsburgh on Wednesday night.

The Penguins begin the postseason as the hottest team in the league, winning eight in a row and 14 of 15 before a meaningless loss in the regular-season finale. They have major concerns in net after goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury suffered his second concussion on March 31 and backup Matt Murray sustained a concussion on Saturday. The news is more positive for the Rangers, who will be without captain Ryan McDonagh (hand) at least for the series opener but saw fellow defenseman Dan Girardi and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist return to practice Tuesday. Although Pittsburgh won the season series 3-1-0, New York has won seven of the last eight meetings in the playoffs.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, USA, Sportsnet, TVAS2, MSG (New York), ROOT (Pittsburgh)

ABOUT THE RANGERS (46-27-9, 39-43 ATS, 36-28 O/U): Lundqvist left Monday's practice after not feeling well and stumbled down the stretch, giving up at least three goals in nine of his last 13 appearances, but he has been a nemesis for the Penguins. He has surrendered only four goals in winning his last four postseason starts in Pittsburgh and has the full confidence of his teammates, with defenseman Kevin Klein noting that "if you make a mistake, Hank is there to save you." While coach Alain Vigneault said there's a chance McDonagh has a shot to play at some point, Derek Stepan is the team's hottest scorer with 15 points in the last 10 games.

ABOUT THE PENGUINS (48-26-8, 37-45 ATS, 36-32 O/U): Fleury returned to practice but has yet to be cleared to play and Murray is day-to-day after the head-scratching decision to start him in the season finale, so Pittsburgh may be forced to go with Jeff Zatkoff, who has not started since Feb. 20. Captain Sidney Crosby overcame a slow start to spark the late-season surge with points in 20 of his last 21, including an eight-game streak entering the postseason. Kris Letang also has scored in his last eight games and hopes for the return of his defensive partner Olli Maatta, who is a game-time decision after missing the last nine contests.

TRENDS:

* Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
* Penguins are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-0-4 in Rangers last 8 vs. Metropolitan.
* Over is 12-3-4 in Penguins last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Rangers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh.

No. 6 Chicago Blackhawks at No. 3 St. Louis Blues (A:+105, H:-125, O/U: 5)

The Chicago Blackhawks begin the upcoming playoffs in a familiar place, as they defended their 2013 Stanley Cup title the following spring with a spirited opening-round series against the St. Louis Blues. The Blackhawks start their quest for their fourth championship in seven years in the Gateway City on Wednesday against a St. Louis club that has been unceremoniously bounced in the first round in each of the past three seasons.

Blues captain David Backes doesn't have fond memories of that 2014 series, a competitive set that saw his team win the first two contests in overtime before losing four straight - highlighted by a brutal hit he absorbed at the hands of defenseman Brent Seabrook. "We've got a heck of a group in here," Backes said after returning to practice on Tuesday following a three-game absence due to a lower-body injury. "It's our time in here to make a real dent in this tournament." St. Louis skated to a 2-1 overtime victory over Chicago on April 7 to win three of the five meetings in the season series and 14 of its final 17 games overall before a setback to Washington two nights later enabled Dallas to claim the division title. The Blues' consolation prize for finishing second is a date with the now-healthy Blackhawks, who finished the season on a 5-1-2 run.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, TVAS, SN360, CSN Chicago, FSN Midwest (St. Louis)

ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS (47-26-9, 35-47 ATS, 30-32 O/U): Patrick Kane put an exclamation point on becoming the first American-born player to win the Art Ross Trophy by collecting seven goals and five assists during a season-ending five-game point streak. The 2013 Conn Smythe Trophy winner scored two goals and set up another in the finale versus Columbus, with his involvement in an otherwise meaningless game being necessitated as Chicago dealt with a bevy of injuries. Fellow forwards Marian Hossa, Artem Anisimov and Andrew Shaw are expected to return from various ailments and goaltender Corey Crawford had no setbacks after facing the Blue Jackets following a near-month-long absence due to an upper-body injury.

ABOUT THE BLUES (49-24-9, 37-45 ATS, 32-40 O/U): Vladimir Tarasenko continues to get better with age as the 24-year-old Russian scored six of his career-high 40 goals during an eight-game point streak to end the season. Tarasenko, who also posted a personal-best 74 points in 2015-16, recorded seven (five goals, two assists) versus Chicago this campaign - including both tallies in the overtime victory on Thursday. Tarasenko traditionally comes up big in the playoffs even when the rest of his team doesn't, as he scored four times in the 2014 series against the Blackhawks before netting six of his club's 14 goals in a first-round ouster versus Minnesota last spring.

TRENDS:

* Blackhawks are 8-2 in their last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Blackhawks are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. Central.
* Blues are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.
* Blues are 2-8 in their last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Over is 7-1-1 in Blackhawks last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Over is 5-1-3 in the last 9 meetings in St. Louis.

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**Udog** · 04-13-2016, 08:32 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Wednesday, April 13

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DETROIT (41-30-0-11, 93 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (46-31-0-5, 97 pts.) - 4/13/2016, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 30-37 ATS (-15.0 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 13-7 (+4.1 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 13-7-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
13 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+6.7 Units)

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NY RANGERS (46-27-0-9, 101 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (48-26-0-8, 104 pts.) - 4/13/2016, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 14-10 (+4.7 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 14-10-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
10 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-1.8 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)

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CHICAGO (47-26-0-9, 103 pts.) at ST LOUIS (49-24-0-9, 107 pts.) - 4/13/2016, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 13-17 ATS (-11.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
ST LOUIS is 49-33 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
ST LOUIS is 24-15 ATS (+3.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CHICAGO is 25-6 ATS (+16.1 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
CHICAGO is 414-402 ATS (+839.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 11-10 (+0.9 Units) against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 11-10-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.2 Units)

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NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, April 13

Detroit-Tampa Bay (0-0)
Home side won last five Detroit-Tampa Bay games; four of last five series games stayed under total. Red Wings lost four of last five visits to Tampa, outscored 16-8. Detroit lost four of its last five away games; over is 5-2-3 in their last ten games. Lightning lost three of last four games, all on road; they are 4-2 in last six home games. Over is 3-0-1 in their last four games. Detroit lost in first round of playoffs last two years; Tampa Bay lost in Cup Finals LY; in their history, they're 4-4 in first round series.

NY Rangers-Pittsburgh (0-0)
Rangers lost last three games with Pittsburgh in series where road team won six of last eight series tilts. New York won four of last five visits here; they've won three of last four games overall. Over is 6-0-4 in their last ten games. Pittsburgh won eight of its last nine games, winning last three at home; five of its last seven games went over the total. Rangers won their first round series the last four years; their 101 points in first time in 43 years they've had 100+ in consecutive years. Penguins are in playoffs for 10th year in row; they're 2-3 in first round series the last five years.

St Louis-Chicago (0-0)
Blues won five of last seven games with Chicago, winning three of last five played here; over is 2-1-2 in last five series games played here. Chicago lost its last two games in OT; they're 5-3 in last eight games overall- they won last five times they scored more than two goals. St Louis won eight of last ten games, but lost two of last three at home. Over is 4-1 in last five games for both sides. Blues lost in first round last three years; they have 100+ points for 4th full season in row. Chicago won Stanley Cup three of last six years; they're 5-2 in last seven first round series.

NHL

Wednesday, April 13

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
DETROIT vs. TAMPA BAY
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit

8:00 PM
NY RANGERS vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Rangers last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
NY Rangers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Rangers
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

9:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. ST. LOUIS
Chicago is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
St. Louis is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Chicago
St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago

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**Udog** · 04-13-2016, 08:38 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Odds to win the Stanley Cup.........

3-1--- Washington

6-1-- Los Angeles

7-1-- Chicago

8-1-- Pittsburgh

10-1-- Anaheim, St Louis

12-1-- Florida

16-1-- NY Rangers

18-1-- San Jose

20-1-- Nashville

25-1-- Tampa Bay, Minnesota, NY Islanders, Philadelphia

30-1-- Detroit

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Happy Hump Day......

13) NBA betting prop: Golden State's over/under for playoff losses: 5.5

12) Golfer Jason Bohn is playing golf on Hilton Head this weekend, seven weeks after he ha a heart attack after a round on Tour.

11) Orioles 9, Red Sox 5-- Baltimore is 7-0, already 4.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays in AL East.

10) Only took Carl Crawford six days to land on the DL- guy makes $20M a year and hardly plays and isn't that good when he does play.

9) Whats up with Arizona's road uniforms? Dark gray with copper and turquiose trim; I'm guessing they look better in person than on TV.

8) Mets are 1-4 at home vs Philly/Miami; they're 3.5 games behind Wasington already. New York scored nine runs total in its five losses.

7) Tampa Bay is 0-7, when it comes to the 5-inning betting prop.

6) Braves/Twins are still winless; Jhoulys Chacin pitched really well for Atlanta last night, but you need to score runs to win.

5) Angels 5, A's 4-- Bitter loss for my A's- their bullpen imploded in 8th/9th innings. Have to win games like this if you ant to contend.

4) Pitchers with worst batting average on their pitches, only when they're put in play: Archer .478, JDe La Rosa .440, Cashner .429.

3) NCAA renewed their deal for the NCAA basketball tournament with CBS/Turner until 2032. Hope I'm around to see that one.

2) Florida Gulf Coast head coach Joe Dooley is bolting the Eagles to become an assistant coach at NC State, where he'll make more money. Dooley replaces Bobby Lutz, who is going to Georgia Tech to help out Josh Pastner.

1) When the Warriors beat San Antonio Sunday night, people in the Westgate sportsbook here gave Golden State a respectful round of applause for getting to 70 wins. People like the way the Warriors play.

**Udog** · 04-13-2016, 09:42 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Wednesday, April 13

Detroit @ Tampa Bay

Game 51-52
April 13, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
12.809
Tampa Bay
11.717
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 1
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-160
5
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+140); Under

NY Rangers @ Pittsburgh

Game 53-54
April 13, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Rangers
13.177
Pittsburgh
11.774
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Rangers
by 1 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
-140
5
Dunkel Pick:
NY Rangers
(+120); Under

Chicago @ St. Louis

Game 55-56
April 13, 2016 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
11.630
St. Louis
13.019
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1 1/2
5 1/2
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-120
5
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(-120); Over

**Udog** · 04-13-2016, 03:09 PM

NHL
Short Sheet

Wednesday, April 13

Detroit at Tampa Bay, 7:05 PM ET
Detroit: 24-36 SU when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days
Tampa Bay: 51-27 SU after 1 or more consecutive losses

NY Rangers at Pittsburgh, 8:05 PM ET
New York: 0-5 SU in road games when playing with 3 or more days rest
Pittsburgh: 18-7 SU after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7

Chicago at St Louis, 9:35 PM ET
Chicago: 25-6 SU after a non-conference game
St Louis: 36-50 SU in home games after allowing 5 goals or more

Announcement

Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 4/13

Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 4/13

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