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**Udog** · 02-19-2016, 08:38 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Some of the longer shots to win the World Series this season:

300-1-- Braves-Rockies-Phillies-- Tough for Colorado to develop pitching.

150-1-- Reds-- Lost Cueto/Chapman, traded Todd Frazier to White Sox.

125-1-- Padres-Brewers-- Milwaukee's new GM looks like a 12-year old.

100-1-- A's-- I'm a fan and tend to be optimistic, but the lineup HAS improved.

60-1-- Marlins-Orioles-- Baltimore spent lot of money this winter.

50-1-- Mariners-Twins-- Minnesota was a surprise contender last season.

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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here........

13) Of the 24 NBA players traded this week, jeff Green and Markieff Morris are only two playing 20+ minutes a game. An uneventiful trading deadline.

12) Read an article this week that ranked MLB managers; it had Joe Maddon first, which is just stupid. Maddon is a fine manager, but not only has Bruce Bochy won three World Series with the Giants, he also led the Padres to a World Series. Bochy is a dead solid lock to be in the Hall of Fame as a manager.

11) North Carolina lost to Duke Wednesday; Roy Williams didn't call timeout on the last possession- when that happens, it means Williams has faith in his veteran players to run the offense and get a good look at the basket. Having lost this game, it probably also means that the next time they're in that situation, they'll call a TO.

10) LSU named former Auburn QB/WR coach Dameyune Craig as its new WR coach; Craig is a dynamic recruiter and in SEC football, recruiting is a 24/7/365 job. When you lure an Auburn alum away from the Auburn coaching staff, it is going to be hard for Auburn to beat LSU out for any recruits in the near future

9) Yesterday was February 18, birthday of John Travolta, Dr Dre and Yoko Ono, in case you care about stuff like that

8) Purdue/Indiana play each other once this season, which makes no sense; these are arch-rivals-- shouldn't the teams play a non-conference game in December when they only play once in league play? I'm guessing that every time they play is a guaranteed sellout, so they're losing money when they only play once a year.

7) Minnesota 68, Maryland 63-- Gophers get their first league win on a night when Maryland's Stone was suspended. Was surprised by the size, enthusiasm of a crowd that came to see an 0-13 home team play.

In conference play this season, Gophers are 7-1 as an underdog of 10+ points, 0-6 as a single dgiit underdog.

6) Northeastern 95, James Madison 94, 3OT-- Huskies outscored JMU 35-14 on the foul line in JMU's gym- a kid on Northeastern played 44:00 and he didn't start.

5) Utah 75, UCLA 73-- Think UCLA boosters are happy the Bruins are 14-12, 5-8 in conference play? Yeah, me either.

4) California 78, Washington 75-- First Pac-12 road win in six tries for Cal.

3) IPFW 91, South Dakota State 79-- Mastodons are in first place by themselves in the Summit League, which doesn't matter as much as in other leagues- Summit tourney is in same place no matter who finishes first. In some leagues, top seeds are hosts for the conference tournament. Summit tournament still figures to be interesting.

2) Tenn-Martin 87, Eastern Illinois 84 OT-- EIU made 15-29 on arc but still lost, which is really a red flag- you only shoot like that a couple nights each year, you just HAVE to win when you do. Skyhawks have now won six games in a row.

1) Teams in the top five of the AP basketball poll have already lost 33 games this year; they lost 21 all of last season.

**Udog** · 02-19-2016, 08:38 AM

NASCAR betting doesn't get any bigger and better than the Daytona 500

Nine Daytona 500 winners have started from the pole followed by the No. 2 and No. 4 spot on the grid, both with seven winners apiece.

You may know nothing about the world of NASCAR. You may not follow it or hear much about it. But when a sport starts its season with its version of the Super Bowl, it’s hard to ignore it.

For those who like to bet on sports, NASCAR gives another opportunity to play the odds, wager a few bucks and have a little fun. So how do you bet on NASCAR? Let us count the ways.

Like any sport, there is a winner and loser. However there are a total of 40 entries – so that means 39 losers. Every driver has a team behind them: engine builders, fabricators, pit crew. In essence then, instead of two teams or two single players contesting each other like other sports, you have 40 teams all going for one single win.

But wagers can also be put down on such things as leading the most laps, highest finisher, Over/Under offerings, head-to-head and even who will finish in the Top 3. NASCAR props allow you to bet on several elements of a race.

Now that we know what we can bet on, let’s turn our attention to figuring out who has the best chances of winning this year’s Daytona 500 and the long NASCAR Sprint Cup season ahead.

Drivers to watch

You can bet on the most obvious - who will win the Daytona 500? Nothing is a certainty, but we can combine several stats to choose the drivers who have the best chance for victory. Below is the Top 5 along with their outright odds.

The Driver Rating is a number NASCAR figures using several stats at a particular track, this week for Daytona. They combine such things as average finish, laps led and average green flag speed to come up with a Driver Rating for active drivers in the last 22 races.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (5/1) is always a favorite at a restrictor plate track (which Daytona is). He has four wins here, which is the most of any active driver (he is tied with Tony Stewart, who will miss this race due to an injury). NASCAR’s most popular driver has a driver rating of 93.7 - second best. He won at Daytona last July, was third in this race last year and was a Daytona 500 champion in 2014. Earnhardt is probably the safest bet in the field.

Jimmie Johnson (8/1) didn’t have the 2015 season he wanted. He is, however, a two-time Daytona 500 champion and has a July win here in 2013. He was fifth at Daytona last year after leading the second most laps. He has the fifth best driver rating, 89.2 and is always a threat to run up front.

Kyle Busch (12/1) isn’t the odds on favorite, but he’s the defending series champion and has the highest driver rating 94.4. He does have a win at Daytona in July of 2008 and showed the type of maturity it takes to get that first Daytona 500 win throughout last season. He missed the Great American Race last February after suffering horrible injuries in a race the day before, so Busch might have a little extra motivation to win in 2016.

Matt Kenseth (12/1) is a two-time Daytona 500 champion (2009, 2012) and has the fourth best driver rating, 89.5. He suffered mechanical issues in this race last year but was one of the fastest cars all year. Kenseth could be the one to beat Sunday.

Denny Hamlin (14/1) is a long shot. He’s never scored a Sprint Cup points win at Daytona, but does have the sixth best driver rating there (88.7) and after the show he put on last Saturday, when he stormed to victory in the Sprint Unlimited exhibition race - his second win in the non-points race - Hamlin shouldn’t be ignored.

Sprint Cup futures

Futures refer to the ultimate winner at the end of a very long season, when they crown a Sprint Cup champion. As mentioned, there are a lot of variables, and also several drivers that should at least be in the title mix come the final race at Homestead in November.

Chief among them is Matt Kenseth (8/1 to win Sprint Cup Championship). Had it not been for controversy with Joey Logano, Kenseth was poised to win it all. Speaking of Logano (6/1), he too should be in contention at the end of the season as well as 2014 champion Kevin Harvick (5/1), who looked strong all season long.

Props

Props are probably the hardest to figure out. However, by using the driver ratings, you can usually narrow down the choices. Use them to figure out the head-to-head and other areas such as who will lead the most laps.

Capping car manufacturers can give you an inside edge at breaking down props. When it comes to car makes, forget about Toyota, one of three automakers in the sport. Toyota has never won a Daytona 500 and has been victorious in only one points-paying race here, coming in July 2008. It’s been all Chevy and Ford at Daytona in the past 11 years (Dodge won in 2008 but no longer competes in NASCAR) with Chevy winning five and Ford also taking five checkered flags, including Logano last season.

Where a driver starts can help determine where they finish. Nine Daytona 500 winners have started from the pole followed by the No. 2 and No. 4 spot on the grid, both with seven winners apiece. From there, both No. 7 and No. 9 starting spots have five winners each. Last year's winner started No. 5, while the pole sitter - Jeff Gordon - finished 33rd.

Being a restrictor-plate track, though, starting up front isn’t always a winning formula. Five winners have started deeper then 31st. Chase Elliot will start on the pole Sunday - the youngest pole sitter in Daytona history. Keep in mind that the last time a driver won from the pole was in 1999, when Gordon accomplished that flag-to-flag feat.

As well, certain drivers thrive on certain course types, such as super speedways, short track ovals, and road courses. Recognizing a driver’s strength is a power handicapping tool when betting NASCAR props.

**Udog** · 02-19-2016, 08:42 AM

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, February 19

Hot teams
-- San Jose won four of its last five games. Carolina won four of last five at home.
-- Islanders won four of last six games; New Jersey won three of last four.
-- Blue Jackets won six of their last nine games.

Cold teams
-- Buffalo lost five of its last seven games.
-- Flyers lost five of their lst seven games. Montreal lost last three games, allowing 15 goals.
-- Calgary lost last three games, allowing 15 goals. Canucks lost seven of last nine games.

Series records
-- Sharks lost five of last seven games with Carolina.
-- Islanders won eight of last nine games with New Jersey.
-- Sabres won four of last six games with Columbus.
-- Flyers lost their last three visits to Montreal.
-- Flames won five of last seven games with Vancouver.

Totals
-- Seven of last ten San Jose-Carolina games went over.
-- Under is 5-0-2 in last seven Islander-Devil games.
-- Over is 8-1-1 in last ten Buffalo-Columbus games.
-- Four of last five Montreal-Philly games went over.
-- Four of last five Calgary games went over the total.

Back-to-backs
-- San Jose lost four of last five if it played night before. Carolina won six of its last eight if it played the night before.
-- Islanders won five of last six games if they played the night before.
-- Vancouver is 5-3 if it played the night before.

NHL

Friday, February 19

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. COLUMBUS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing on the road against Columbus
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Columbus
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Columbus's last 12 games at home
Columbus is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

7:00 PM
NY ISLANDERS vs. NEW JERSEY
NY Islanders are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing New Jersey
NY Islanders are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
New Jersey is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 7 games when playing NY Islanders

7:00 PM
SAN JOSE vs. CAROLINA
San Jose is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Jose is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Jose

7:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. MONTREAL
Philadelphia is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Montreal is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Montreal's last 10 games

9:00 PM
VANCOUVER vs. CALGARY
Vancouver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Vancouver is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games

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**Udog** · 02-19-2016, 09:30 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Friday, February 19

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SAN JOSE (31-20-0-5, 67 pts.) at CAROLINA (26-22-0-10, 62 pts.) - 2/19/2016, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 (+2.9 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.9 Units)

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NY ISLANDERS (30-19-0-7, 67 pts.) at NEW JERSEY (29-22-0-7, 65 pts.) - 2/19/2016, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW JERSEY is 14-11 ATS (+28.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY ISLANDERS are 15-7 ATS (+23.2 Units) in road games on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 13-29 ATS (+43.3 Units) on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY ISLANDERS is 9-3 (+6.2 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
NY ISLANDERS is 9-3-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+5.0 Units)

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BUFFALO (23-28-0-7, 53 pts.) at COLUMBUS (23-28-0-7, 53 pts.) - 2/19/2016, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLUMBUS is 35-31 ATS (+72.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 34-16 ATS (+16.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 10-18 ATS (-9.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-4 (+0.8 Units) against the spread versus COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBUS is 4-3-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+4.0 Units)

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PHILADELPHIA (25-21-0-10, 60 pts.) at MONTREAL (27-27-0-4, 58 pts.) - 2/19/2016, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-33 ATS (+49.5 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 229-237 ATS (-84.6 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-17 ATS (-9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-17 ATS (-15.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 90-70 ATS (+16.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
MONTREAL is 27-31 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games this season.
MONTREAL is 6-13 ATS (-9.0 Units) second half of the season this season.
MONTREAL is 10-16 ATS (+27.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-4 (+0.1 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 4-4-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.1 Units)

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VANCOUVER (22-23-0-12, 56 pts.) at CALGARY (25-28-0-3, 53 pts.) - 2/19/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 22-35 ATS (+58.3 Units) in all games this season.
VANCOUVER is 350-311 ATS (-100.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
CALGARY is 75-74 ATS (-29.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 33-25 ATS (+60.8 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 14-5 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 23-15 ATS (+41.4 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 52-37 ATS (+93.1 Units) in road games on Friday nights since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 73-54 ATS (+17.7 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 10-8-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.1 Units)

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**Udog** · 02-19-2016, 09:48 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Friday, February 19

San Jose @ Carolina

Game 51-52
February 19, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Jose
12.382
Carolina
9.941
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Jose
by 2 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Jose
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
San Jose
N/A

NY Islanders @ New Jersey

Game 53-54
February 19, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Islanders
12.609
New Jersey
11.053
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Islanders
by 1 1/2
5 1/2
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Islanders
-115
5
Dunkel Pick:
NY Islanders
(-115); Over

Buffalo @ Columbus

Game 55-56
February 19, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
11.060
Columbus
9.941
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 1
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Columbus
-145
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+125); Over

Philadelphia @ Montreal

Game 57-58
February 19, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
10.462
Montreal
8.986
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montreal
-115
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-105); Under

Vancouver @ Calgary

Game 859-860
February 19, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vancouver
8.650
Calgary
10.132
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 1 1/2
6 1/2
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
-150
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Calgary
(-150); Over

**Udog** · 02-19-2016, 01:18 PM

NHL
Short Sheet

Friday, February 19

San Jose at Carolina, 7:05 PM ET
San Jose: N/A
Carolina: N/A

NY Islanders at New Jersey, 7:05 PM ET
New York: 15-7 SU in road games on Friday nights
New Jersey: 7-18 SU after a game where 7 or more total goals were scored

Buffalo at Columbus, 7:05 PM ET
Buffalo: 0-14 SU in road games off a loss against a division rival
Columbus: 15-9 SU off a close home loss by 1 goal

Philadelphia at Montreal, 7:35 PM ET
Philadelphia: 0-8 SU on the road when the money line is -100 to -150
Montreal: 80-52 SU when playing their 3rd game in 5 days

Vancouver at Calgary, 9:05 PM ET
Vancouver: 6-15 SU after one or more consecutive overs
Calgary: 6-0 SU in home games after 2 or more consecutive overs

Announcement

Friday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 2/19

Friday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 2/19

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