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**Udog** · 10-12-2015, 08:28 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)

six most popular picks in Week 5 season record: 17-13-1
6) Bills -2.5 (385)-- Buffalo's losses were to QBs Brady/Manning- L

5) Texans -1 (427)-- Bad spread got jumped on, but Texans lost anyway- L

4) Giants -7 (427)-- 49ers allowed 90 points in first two road games- L.

3) Bengals -3 (521)-- Long travel, short work week for the Seahawks- T.

2) Patriots -8.5 (642)-- NE is 11-3 in last 14 games vs backup QBs- W.

1) Cardinals, -2.5 (710)-- Short work week for winless Detroit- W.

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday......

13) Colts 27, Texans 20-- Lot of people bet Houston because Hasselbeck was sick much of week before game, but he played and did enough to get Indy to 3-2. Colts had an 11-yard edge in field position.

12) Buccaneers 38, Jaguars 31-- Field position wins; not only did Tampa have a TD on defense, they scored on TD drives of 17-41-40 yards. Jags had TD drives of 78-78-61-86 yards. Teams that lose field position by 14+ yards seldom win the game.

11) Bills 14, Titans 13-- Buffalo did almost nothing on offense in first half (51 yards) but had two 80-yard TD drives and pulled this game out. Bills are 3-2, with losses to Brady/Manning. Total yardage in this defensive struggle was 276-209, Titans.

10) Browns 33, Ravens 30 OT-- Baltimore's defense is terrible; on Browns' last six drives, they ran 44 plays for 334 yards (7.6/play). Ravens led 21-9 but lost; they are 1-4 and in last place. They might've won but on his long run that got ball to Browns' 10-yard line in last 2:00, Forsett sprained an ankle and never returned to the game- he had been gaining all of Baltimore's tough yards.

9) Falcons 25, Redskins 19 OT-- I'm wondering if a 5-0 team has ever trailed four of the five wins in the 4th quarter; Atlanta went ahead with 0:24 left, Redskins tied the game with a 52-yard FG at the gun, but Falcons scored a defensive TD for the win.

8) Bears 18, Chiefs 17-- Horrific home loss for Chiefs, who led 17-3 at half; on their last five drives, KC ran 17 plays for 53 yards. Chicago scored two TDs in last 3:05 for the unlikely win. Chiefs are 1-4 with two last-minute home losses.

7) Eagles 39, Saints 17-- Why is Rob Ryan still a defensive coordinator in the NFL? When do his teams ever win? This game was 10-7 at half; Philly ran 37 plays for 269 yards, with three TDs, three FGs on six second half series.

6) Packers 24, Rams 10-- St Louis defended Aaron Rodgers OK, but in second half alone, St Louis missed three (long) FGs and threw two red zone picks- you have to play really well to beat the Packers, not turn ball over four times. Gurley is giving the Rams a running threat; the O-line has to pass block better.

5) Bengals 27, Seahawks 24 OT-- Guys behind me in sportsbook were Bengal fans; they spent most of game bashing Andy Dalton, but they changed their tune at the end, as Cincy won again and is now 5-0. You know things are going well when the GW field goal banks in off the left upright. For losing teams, it clanks out.

4) Cardinals 42, Lions 17-- Complete tank job by Detroit; I fully expect Fred Willard to show up in the Lions'' coaches' meeting Monday with a cake like he does on that DirecTV commercial: "Its going to be fun firing all of you." Stafford got benched in second half; he's going to be a Lion a lot longer than coach Caldwell.

3) Patriots 30, Cowboys 6-- CBS does the Nantz/Simms broadcast team a disservice, having them do two games every week. Simms is a sub-par analyst anyway; working two games every week makes him worse. He said ".....if the Patriots can hold on here" when they led 27-6 with 7:00 left. This was a bad game, by the way.

2) Broncos 16, Raiders 10-- Second time in first five weeks Denver won while scoring one TD, with defense scoring that TD. Trent Dilfer gets mocked for being worst QB to win a Super Bowl; the 2015 Peyton Manning ain't any better-- Broncos converted 8 of 34 third down plays in last three games.

1) Giants 30, 49ers 27-- Manning passed for 441 yards, Giants scored seven of nine times they had ball (four TDs, three FGs) but they needed last-minute TD to escape a very bad home loss. Beckham may or may not have pulled his hammy during his me-first TD dance. God forbid an NFL WR act like a normal human after he scores.

**Udog** · 10-12-2015, 08:28 AM

Harbaugh's fast start has Wolverines favored over Sparty

Books have tabbed the Wolverines as 6-point home favorites over their in-state rivals.

There were certainly people who thought that, in due time, Jim Harbaugh could turn around a lagging Michigan program. Outside of Ann Arbor, however, it’s likely nobody would have predicted that the former Wolverines QB would have such a speedy impact when he took the reins.

But by the time Michigan plays host to instate Big Ten rival Michigan State on Saturday, it will have been a month since the Wolverines gave up any points. Michigan (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) blanked No. 13 Northwestern 38-0 Saturday as a 10.5-point home favorite and has now outscored its last three foes by a total of 97-0. And that came after back-to-back wins in which the Wolverines allowed just seven points apiece.

Michigan State, meanwhile, is perfect on the field, and perfectly awful at the betting counter, at 6-0 SU and 0-6 ATS. The Spartans held off Rutgers 31-24 as a 12-point chalk on Saturday.

Although fourth-ranked Michigan State is 6-1 SU and a spotless 7-0 ATS in its last seven meetings with Michigan, the 14th-ranked Wolverines will be 6-point favorites here, according to Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at Wynn Las Vegas.

“These two have met 107 times, with Michigan winning 68 of those, and five ties,” Avello said. “At the start of the year, I had no intentions of making Michigan the favorite in this one, but after having as many shutouts as Jake Arrieta of the Cubs, and the Spartans just squeaking by in their last two against average competition, the team from Ann Arbor will be the chalk.”

Southern California at Notre Dame (-3)

The Trojans, a preseason top-10 team, are stunningly on the brink of having their season fly out the window. USC (3-2 SU and ATS) went off as a 17-point home fave Saturday against Washington, yet inexplicably mustered just one touchdown and two field goals in a 17-12 loss.

Notre Dame, on the flipside, is looking stout at 5-1 SU and ATS, despite losing its starting quarterback and starting running back early in the season. The Fighting Irish bounced back from a tough loss at Clemson to fend off Navy 41-24 Saturday laying 13.5 points at home.

“It must be the third Saturday of October, because that's when this traditional rivalry will continue at South Bend,” Avello said. “USC will try to recover after a stunning loss that most likely took them out of the hunt for a national championship. Notre Dame played a solid second half to take care of a stubborn Navy team, and if the Irish can get by this one, the schedule-maker has made the next four quite soft to keep their championship hopes alive.”

Florida at Louisiana State (-5)

Much like Michigan, Florida has a new coach who has engineered a big turnaround. The Gators (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) rolled past Missouri 21-3 Saturday giving 6.5 points on the road. Coach Jim McElwain has Florida at No. 11 in the nation.

But No. 5 LSU (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) and its rampaging running back, Leonard Fournette, will present the sternest test by far for the Gators. On Saturday, the Tigers – getting a bonus home game due to massive flooding in South Carolina – dumped the Gamecocks 45-24 to narrowly cash as a 20.5-point favorite.

“Florida and Michigan have to be the two biggest surprises of the season, and in both cases, their defenses have been the catalysts,” Avello said. “Florida is allowing opponents an average of less than 100 yards per game, and continuing that trend will be its biggest obstacle against the Tigers. To keep a perfect record, the Gators must figure out how to stop Fournette, who is averaging 10 yards a carry and 200 yards per game.”

Alabama (-4) at Texas A&M

The Crimson Tide (5-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) have bounced back from their upset home loss to Mississippi with three consecutive wins. That includes an impressive 38-10 rout of Georgia as a 1.5-point road pup, followed by Saturday’s 27-14 victory over Arkansas as a 15-point home chalk.

The Aggies (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) will come in well-rested off a bye week, after topping Mississippi State 30-17 laying 4 points at home on Oct. 3. And Avello figures the Aggies haven’t forgotten their last meeting against the Tide.

“I have to think that the Aggies are still a little bitter over the 59-0 drubbing at Alabama last year,” he said. “This game sets up nicely for them, as they had the week off and a 5-0 start to the season as a confidence builder. But they'll still be a small ‘dog against a team I'll be very careful about putting in the underdog role again.”

**Udog** · 10-12-2015, 08:31 AM

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 12

NHL writeups will begin October 15.

NHL

Monday, October 12

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Trend Report
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1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. BOSTON
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Boston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
WINNIPEG vs. NY ISLANDERS
Winnipeg is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 8 games when playing NY Islanders
NY Islanders are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Islanders last 6 games at home

3:00 PM
COLUMBUS vs. BUFFALO
Columbus is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Columbus's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Columbus
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Columbus

7:00 PM
FLORIDA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Florida is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Florida is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Florida

10:00 PM
VANCOUVER vs. ANAHEIM
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vancouver's last 6 games when playing Anaheim
Vancouver is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Anaheim
Anaheim is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
Anaheim is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

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**Udog** · 10-12-2015, 09:51 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Monday, October 12

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WINNIPEG (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) at NY ISLANDERS (0-1-0-1, 1 pts.) - 10/12/2015, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY ISLANDERS are 25-14 ATS (+5.8 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 29-25 ATS (+62.8 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 13-8 ATS (+23.4 Units) in road games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 29-37 ATS (-10.8 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 68-113 ATS (-50.8 Units) in home games after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY ISLANDERS is 2-2-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.4 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

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TAMPA BAY (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) at BOSTON (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/12/2015, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 7-15 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 308-376 ATS (-122.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 139-182 ATS (-64.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.
BOSTON is 41-43 ATS (-25.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 6-13 ATS (-13.9 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 6-2 (+4.0 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-2-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.7 Units)

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COLUMBUS (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) at BUFFALO (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/12/2015, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLUMBUS is 42-42 ATS (+89.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 18-12 ATS (+35.4 Units) in road games after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 10-5 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 16-56 ATS (+126.7 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 19-57 ATS (+124.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 4-2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.9 Units)

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FLORIDA (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (0-1-0-1, 1 pts.) - 10/12/2015, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 118-175 ATS (+297.0 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-15 ATS (-10.4 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-17 ATS (-11.9 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 4-3 (+1.3 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 4-3-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.3 Units)

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VANCOUVER (1-0-0-1, 3 pts.) at ANAHEIM (0-1-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/12/2015, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 123-71 ATS (+17.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 53-29 ATS (+2.9 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 28-8 ATS (+14.0 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 15-5 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 8-2 (+5.3 Units) against the spread versus VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 8-2-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.4 Units)

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**Udog** · 10-12-2015, 10:19 AM

NHL

Monday, October 12

Sabres G Lehner out 6-10 weeks

Buffalo Sabres goalie Robin Lehner will miss six to 10 weeks with a high-ankle sprain.

Lehner left a 3-1 loss to the Ottawa Senators in the second period Thursday night. He was hunched over after he made a save against Senators forward Mark Stone and appeared to favor his left leg. Lehner skated off the ice but was helped to the bench by a trainer.

"We were waiting for the MRI and waiting for a prognosis but you know with the symptoms and so forth, you had an idea what the injury was," coach Dan Bylsma said Sunday. "It's not a complete surprise to get the results and to have that be the time frame."

Lehner was traded to Buffalo by Ottawa on June 26. He was playing his first game since sustaining a concussion on Feb. 16 in a game against the Carolina Hurricanes.

Goaltender Chad Johnson made 27 saves in Saturday night's 4-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning while getting the start in place of Lehner.

Bruins F Marchand out with concussion

Boston Bruins forward Brad Marchand sustained a concussion Saturday night against the Montreal Canadiens.

Marchand left Boston's 4-2 loss midway through the third period after taking an inadvertent elbow to the side of his head from Canadiens forward Dale Weise. He was helped off the ice and did not return to the game.

"We're going about it with the league's protocol with concussions and his return will be dictated by how quickly he recovers ... so we have no timetable for him," coach Claude Julien told the team's website Sunday.

The Bruins (0-2-0) are also missing defensemen Zdeno Chara (upper body) and Dennis Seidenberg (back). Chara practiced Sunday and is questionable for the game Monday against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The team also placed defenseman Matt Irwin on waivers.

**Udog** · 10-12-2015, 10:31 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Monday, October 12

Vancouver @ Anaheim

Game 59-60
October 12, 2015 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vancouver
9.670
Anaheim
14.018
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Anaheim
by 4 1/2
4 1/2
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Anaheim
-165
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Anaheim
(-165); Under

Winnipeg @ NY Islanders

Game 51-52
October 12, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
12.171
NY Islanders
14.018
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Islanders
by 2
6 1/2
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Islanders
-130
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Islanders
(-130); Over

Tampa Bay @ Boston

Game 53-54
October 12, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
12.788
Boston
10.654
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-140
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-140); Under

Columbus @ Buffalo

Game 55-56
October 12, 2015 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Columbus
10.665
Buffalo
11.710
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 1
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Columbus
-170
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+150); Over

Florida @ Philadelphia

Game 57-58
October 12, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida
12.109
Philadelphia
9.710
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida
by 2 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
-130
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Florida
(+110); Under

Announcement

Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 10/12

Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 10/12

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