Announcement

**Udog** · 06-02-2015, 09:43 AM

Three big betting trends for the NHL Stanley Cup final

The Stanley Cup final not only marks the final journey for two teams looking to become NHL champions, it also represents the final game action for bettors before the start of the three-month offseason.

Bettors will note several interesting trends - not only those involving the Tampa Bay Lightning and Chicago Blackhawks, but those relating to previous Stanley Cup championships. And if past history in either case continues in this year's title showdown, following the trends could pay handsomely.

Here are three trends going into this year's Stanley Cup final:

Favorites Dominate Game 1

The favored team has been automatic since 2007 when it comes to setting the tone, going a perfect 8-0 SU in Game 1. The favorites ranged from a narrow -107, the moneyline the Kings cashed in on with their 2-1 win over New Jersey in the 2012 Stanley Cup opener, to the -188 pricetag the Vancouver Canucks converted in their 1-0 triumph over Boston in the 2011 championship curtain raiser.

Unders Lead the Way

The trend of fewer goals being scored later in the postseason really takes hold in the final, where the Under has been the predominant play for the better part of the previous seven Stanley Cup series. Teams have amassed a 16-26-6 O/U mark in those contests, with the Boston Bruins-Vancouver Canucks seven-game thriller in 2010 (5-1-0 O/U) serving as the only outlier in that time. The Under has been a particularly strong play over the previous three Stanley Cup finals, coming through in 10 of the 15 games.

Road Warriors

The Lightning have been putting in work on the road during their quest for the Stanley Cup and bettors are reaping the reward. The Bolts head into the Stanley Cup Final with a 7-3 record away from, including cashing as +140 dogs in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference final at Madison Square Garden. They've won three-straight on the road heading in their next series.

The Lightning had just the 19th-best road record in the league at 18-16-7 during the regular season while the Blackhawks posted a home record of 24-12-5

**Udog** · 06-02-2015, 09:44 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Wednesday, June 3

Chicago @ Tampa Bay

Game 1-2
June 3, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
10.517
Tampa Bay
12.112
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-120
5
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-120); Under

NHL
Long Sheet

Wednesday, June 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (60-32-0-7, 127 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (62-32-0-8, 132 pts.) - 6/3/2015, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 64-57 ATS (-25.4 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 322-361 ATS (-73.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 187-196 ATS (+467.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.
CHICAGO is 37-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 (+2.9 Units) against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.8 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NHL
Short Sheet

Wednesday, June 3

Stanley Cup Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1

Chicago at Tampa Bay, 8:05 PM
Chicago: 21-27 SU in road games after having won 2 of their last 3
Tampa Bay: 37-14 SU in home games

NHL

Wednesday, June 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 13 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 06-03-2015, 08:33 AM

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, June 3

Tampa Bay won six of last seven games with Chicago, winning last four played here- three of the four here were decided in OT/SO. Three of last four series games stayed under. Lightning had an extra day to get ready- they won Game 7 on Friday, Chicago on Saturday. Blackhawks won two of the last five Stanley Cups; they split last four road games- their last four games overall all went over total. Tampa Bay lost its last two home games, allowing 12 goals; four of its last six games went over.

**Udog** · 06-03-2015, 08:36 AM

NHL

Wednesday, June 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Blackhawks at Lightning
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning (-129, 5)

The Chicago Blackhawks' quest for their third championship in six seasons was put in peril late in February as Patrick Kane sustained a broken clavicle while falling awkwardly into the boards. Originally expected to be sidelined nearly three months, the flashy superstar returned just short of two and hasn't missed a beat as Chicago heads into Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final against the host Tampa Bay Lightning on Wednesday.

While Kane (10 goals, team-high 20 points) vies for his second Conn Smythe Trophy in three years, captain Jonathan Toews (nine goals, nine assists) added another line to his big-game resume by scoring twice in the Blackhawks' 5-3 win over Anaheim in Game 7 of the Western Conference final. Both Chicago and Tampa Bay boast considerable depth, with the latter seeing its vaunted "Triplets" line of Tyler Johnson (league-leading 12 goals, 21 points), Nikita Kucherov (nine goals, 10 assists) and Ondrej Palat (seven goals, eight assists) accounting for 28 of the club's 55 goals in the playoffs. Towering Ben Bishop has come up large with a league-best three shutouts for the Lightning, who are making their second Stanley Cup appearance while becoming the first team in league history to play four Original Six foes in one playoff round. Tampa Bay outlasted Calgary in seven games in 2004 to win its lone final appearance while Chicago has claimed the Stanley Cup on five occasions, including a pair of spirited six-game series victories over Philadelphia (2010) and Boston (2013).

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBC, CBC, TVA Sports

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Lightning -116 and that has since been adjusted to -129. The total has opened at 5 and remained.

INJURY REPORT: Blackhawks - D Michal Rozsival (Out, ankle). Lightning - D Mattias Ohlund (I-R, knee).

ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS: While Chicago's electric offense receives plenty of fanfare, Duncan Keith has anchored a sturdy defense that routinely ranks as one of the best in the NHL. Keith, a two-time Norris Trophy winner, has recorded 18 points and a league-best plus-13 rating while averaging 31:36 per contest. Traditional partner Brent Seabrook and Niklas Hjalmarsson have been steady while an inconsistent Johnny Oduya has provided a presence in front of Corey Crawford, who overcame his considerable struggles in the opening round to subdue both Minnesota and Anaheim.

ABOUT THE LIGHTNING: Bishop became the first goaltender in league history to notch a shutout in his first two Game 7 appearances after making 22 saves to eliminate the Presidents' Trophy-winning New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference final. "We still haven't accomplished anything yet," the 28-year-old said. "We're four wins away. It's going to be probably the hardest four wins of all of our careers. We know there's a lot ahead of us." Bishop stopped 65 of 67 shots versus Chicago this season - including all 28 he faced in a 4-0 victory on Feb. 27.

TRENDS:

* Blackhawks are 1-6 in the last seven meetings.
* Blackhawks are 0-4 in the last four meetings in Tampa Bay.
* Lightning are 1-4 in their last five games following a win.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Lightning last five home games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-one percent of bettors are backing the Lightning in Game 1.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 06-03-2015, 08:38 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Some of the Sporting News College Football Guide's top tailgating experiences........

-- Texas A&M-- They have Midnight Yell practice the night before.

-- Washington-- Lot of tailgaters get to the stadium by boat.....

-- Tennessee-- You've never seen so many people wearing orange.

-- Ole Miss-- "The Grove" is famous for big parties and attractive ladies.

-- Wisconsin-- Less RVs, lot more brats, same amount of beer as other places.

-- LSU-- Former Tiger QB Rohan Davey once said "You can smell the bourbon in the air" as he and his teammates took the field. Night games are that much more fun.

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Random mid-week thoughts.......

13) Weirdness in San Diego this week. Statistical weirdness.........

Monday night, Andrew Cashner allowed 11 hits while striking out 12 Mets in 4.2 IP; in the last 115 years, no one had struck out 10+ while allowing 10+ hits while pitching less than five innings. No one in 115 years.

Last night in the same ballpark, Noah Syndergaard of the Mets allowed 10 hits while striking out 10.....in four innings. So something that hadn't been done in 115 years was done on consecutive nights, in the same ballpark. Weird.

12) Texas Rangers prospect Joey Gallo had a memorable debut, going 3-4 with three runs scored and three RBI as Texas blasted the White Sox 15-2.

11) Milwaukee-St Louis played pair of 1-0 games last two nights; Tyler Cravy had a solid debut for the Brewers after pitching in the minors for six years. He gave up only four hits, two walks in seven IP but lost 1-0 to the Redbirds.

10) I've had Giancarlo Stanton on my keeper fantasy team since he was an 18-year old in the Florida State League, but every year recently, the Marlins suck, then they fire someone or trade all the other good players and Stanton looks like a lost soul for long stretches of time. He is in one of those funks now.

Stanton makes $20M+ a year and is expected to carry the franchise, but the Marlins have imploded again and the only hits Stanton get go out of the ballpark; he's turning into this generation's Rob Deer. Thats not a good thing.

I mean, the Marlins fire the manager/bench coach, the new bench coach, who is really running the team since the GM is the "manager", isn't getting along with the coaches left over from the previous regime. Must be a great group to be around these days.

9) Marlins have the best TV announcers, Rich Waltz and Tommy Hutton; Hutton played in big leagues, was less than happy when Starlin Castro homered Monday and took his time getting around the bases. Hutton mentioned it again last night, so I'm guessing the Marlins in the dugout weren't too happy about it either. You wonder if the Cubs will be able to find a taker for Castro in trade talks, as is rumored.

8) Oakland A's are 10-11 when Ben Zobrist plays, 11-22 when he does not. Zobrist is healthy now, but he is 34 and will be a free agent this winter, so chances are he is going to get traded before July 31, which will make this season even more depressing, especially since the A's are 7-3 in their last ten games and are improving.

7) Judge Judy makes $45M a year? Really? And I thought Stephen A Smith and Skip Bayless were overpaid (they are). Yikes.

6) Mets are carrying 13 pitchers on their roster now, which leaves four position player subs per game, one of whom is the backup catcher who probably won't get into the game. Back when pitchers went deeper in games, i remember the A's going with nine pitchers until they needed a fifth starter around Memorial Day, then they would bring up Glenn Abbott or Dave Hamilton as their 10th pitcher.

5) San Diego Padres really need to go back to their old brown/gold color scheme; still see a lot of fans at Petco Park wearing those colors. Previous owners wanted to make their team to look more mainstream, but unique colors sell more stuff.

4) New York's Hospital for Special Surgery is sponsoring the David Wright jersey giveaway June 13 at Citi Field, which is fitting, since Wright is probably out for the year with spinal stenosis. Still waiting for the Mets to make their move trade-wise to cement themselves as playoff contenders.

3) Jets cut QB Matt Simms, who was then signed by Buffalo, which then cut QB Jeff Tuel to make room for Simms. Jacksonville then signed Tuel and cut QB Jake Waters to make room for Tuel. Funny thing is that Simms was by far the worst college QB of the three, but he is Phil Simms' son, which seems to carry some weight. Certainly nothing he has ever done on the playing field would dictate this much interest in him.

2) Speaking of the Bills, SI.com's Peter King had this to say about Rex Ryan this week: "........Who wouldn’t love to see Rex Ryan playing important football games in January?" I neither like or dislike Rex, but I sure as hell don't give a rat's ass whether he ever coaches in the playoffs again. Why would a non-Bills fan root for him?

This identifies a problem with some members of mainstream media; they prefer guys who make their jobs easier, guys who run their mouth for no apparent reason. Ryan is unquestionably one of those guys and the media loves him for it.

1) Cam Newton gets a five-year, $103M extension from Carolina; with $$$ comes the weight of expectations. Panthers will be an interesting team to follow this fall.

**Udog** · 06-03-2015, 08:39 AM

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities

Letdown spot

Remember the NBA conference finals? It's been so long since we’ve seen playoff betting action, it isn’t just the Cavaliers and Warriors shaking off the rust for Game 1 Thursday. With basketball bettors returning to the book, you can’t help but wonder how much that seven-day hiatus will impact these teams? The one thing we do know is that Finals teams do suffer a bit of a letdown in the opening quarter of the series. Call it jitters or just a feeling-out process, but over the past eight seasons there has been an average of just 43.6 combined points scored in the first quarter of Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Oddsmakers have set the first quarter total at 51.5 points for Game 1 between Cleveland and Golden State. The Cavs scored 27.2 points per first quarter this season while allowing 24.6 points against. The Warriors averaged 27.8 points in first quarters while giving up 25.6 points in the opening frames. Only one time in that eight-season span have the finals teams scored close to that expected first quarter total, with the Heat and Thunder putting up 51 first-quarter points in Game 1 of the 2012 NBA Finals.

Lookahead spot

You knew it wouldn’t take long for another NFL team to scoop up Rex Ryan when the New York Jets canned the head coach at the end of last season. And in classic Ryan fashion, he stayed within the division - just to stick it to his rivals - and took over the big job with the Buffalo Bills, putting a circle around his return to the Meadowlands in Week 10 of the NFL season.

The Jets will undoubtedly have plenty of media hype and locker room hoopla as that matchup draws near, which could get them into trouble. New York, which is an early 1-point home underdog hosting Buffalo in Week 10, runs the risk of a letdown spot the week prior hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. Books are giving the improving Jags five points in that game – just enough to make them dangerous.

Schedule spot

The St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers clash this weekend in a possible NLCS preview in La-La Land, headlined by a Sunday Night Baseball finale. The Cardinals and Dodgers are currently No. 1 and No. 3 in the National League and you can expect some intense battles by the time this three-game set wraps late Sunday. But following that high-profile, primetime showdown, St. Louis makes the trip up the mountain to play the Colorado Rockies Monday.

Not only will a depleted Cardinals squad have to battle the thin air and fatigue that comes with Coors Field but their pitching staff, which currently sits tops in the big leagues with a 2.70 ERA, hasn’t been that sharp in recent trips to Colorado. St. Louis has allowed an average of 5.6 runs per game to the Rockies in their last 10 meetings in Coors Field. Luckily, the Cards have fired back with an average of 6.7 runs for in that 10-game span.

**Udog** · 06-03-2015, 12:30 PM

NHL

Wednesday, June 3

Favorites are a dominant bet in Game 1 of Stanley Cup final

Since the NHL returned from the lockout for the 2005-06 season, favorites have gone 9-0 in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final.

The Game 1 fave has gone on to average 3.4 goals in the opening contest, while the dog has averaged just 1.8 goals.

Only once over that stretch was the Game 1 favorite a road team. The 2012 Los Angeles Kings were -107 at the New Jersey Devils and posted a 2-1 win in overtime.

Announcement

Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 6/3

Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 6/3

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment