Announcement

**Udog** · 05-01-2015, 09:04 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

-- Washington 2, Rangers 1-- Joel Ward scored in last two seconds for the win.

-- Anaheim 6, Calgary 1-- Flames are 1-23 in last 24 games in Orange County.

-- Bulls 120, Bucks 66-- Ugly end to a promising season for Milwaukee.

-- Clippers 102, Spurs 96-- Road team won four of six series games.

-- Royals 8, Tigers 1-- Kansas City is now 8-0 in series openers.

-- Nationals 8, Mets 3-- Last six Washington games went over the total

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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Happy May Day, everyone...........

13) After months and months of speculation, Round 1 of the draft was marked by the expected happening-- not many surprises at all Thursday night. Makes you wonder why so many media outlets pay so many people to speculate on whats going to happen, when nothing out of the ordinary happens.

Then again, Round 2 is tonight and the rest of the draft is Saturday; could be some wheeling and dealing then, or is this draft a little talent-shy, so people aren't willing to take a chance on a big trade?

12) ESPN has a new star in Louis Riddick, who is excellent on TV; he only got on because Ray Lewis begged out after the problems in Baltimore, but they are idiots if Riddick doesn't become a big part of their pregame show.

11) There are more than 3,000 hats stored backstage at the draft; all 32 teams in every size. Merchandising is big business.

10) Odd but true: since he came into the NFL, Matt Ryan has made more money than Tom Brady- go figure.

9) Only two trades last night; San Diego traded up to get RB Melvin Gordon, which will boost their offense- they gave up a lot to move up two slots.

8) Speaking of the Chargers, Mrs Philip Rivers is pregnant with the couple's 8th child-- San Diego was wise to hang onto the veteran QB.

7) Washington Huskies were only team to have three kids drafted last night, which I'm sure makes coach Petersen happy-- good ammunition for when he goes out recruiting for the next year.

6) One of those three players was CB Marcus Peters, who Petersen tossed off the team LY after an series of arguments with assistant coaches. Kansas City scouts talked with Petersen's staff and with former coach Steve Sarkisian, and they must've found Sarkisian more convincing- they drafted the kid.

5) Saints are going to run the ball more; why else would they draft 6-7, 313-pound Andrus Peat in the first round?

4) Marc Trestman will be Baltimore's fourth OC in four years; his QB coach is Marty Mornhinweg, who somehow keeps getting NFL jobs, despite showing nothing that would distinguish him as an assistant or head coach.

3) Hard to believe, but when the Giants drafted Ereck Flowers, he was the first Miami Hurricane drafted in first round since Kenny Phillips in 2008, also by the Giants. Before that, Miami had gone 14 years in a row with a first round pick.

2) Interesting hearing NFL Network guys saying that Leonard Williams was "the best player in the draft." More than one guy said that. Jets got themselves a good deal.

1) Elsewhere, Billy Donovan left Florida for the NBA-- big story next week will be who gets the Florida job and how many dominos does that create, job-wise?

**Udog** · 05-01-2015, 09:05 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Friday, May 1

Minnesota Wild @ Chicago Blackhawks

Game 53-54
May 1, 2015 @ 9:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota Wild
9.979
Chicago *********
11.475
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago *********
by 1 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago *********
-140
5
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago *********
(-140); Under

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Montreal Canadiens

Game 57-58
May 1, 2015 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay Lightni
10.216
Montreal Canadien
13.274
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Montreal Canadien
by 3
4 1/2
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montreal Canadien
-130
5
Dunkel Pick:
Montreal Canadien
(-130); Under

NHL
Long Sheet

Friday, May 1

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MINNESOTA (50-30-0-8, 108 pts.) at CHICAGO (52-30-0-6, 110 pts.) - 5/1/2015, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 38-15 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-11 ATS (+30.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5 or less this season.
MINNESOTA is 33-20 ATS (+7.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
MINNESOTA is 21-14 ATS (+5.9 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
MINNESOTA is 18-10 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
CHICAGO is 27-24 ATS (-22.0 Units) second half of the season this season.
CHICAGO is 56-66 ATS (-38.2 Units) in home games on Friday nights since 1996.
CHICAGO is 13-18 ATS (-18.2 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 15-9 (+1.9 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 15-9-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
11 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.3 Units)

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TAMPA BAY (54-27-0-8, 116 pts.) at MONTREAL (54-24-0-10, 118 pts.) - 5/1/2015, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 6-14 ATS (-10.9 Units) in road games after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
MONTREAL is 54-34 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all games this season.
MONTREAL is 48-29 ATS (+10.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 47-29 ATS (+9.2 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 20-10 ATS (+6.4 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
MONTREAL is 24-16 ATS (+3.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MONTREAL is 32-25 ATS (+57.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 11-2 ATS (+8.6 Units) in the second round of the playoffs since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 179-191 ATS (+409.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 8-8-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.5 Units)

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NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, May 1

Tampa Bay won its last five games with Montreal; five of last six series games went over total. Habs scored total of five goals in losing last three home games with Tampa Bay. Lightning won last two games to beat Detroit in seven games; last game was Wednesday- they've won four of last six at home. Canadiens haven't played since they beat Ottawa in Game 6 Sunday- they won three of their last four home games- three of their last four games stayed under total. Since they last won Stanley Cup in '93, Montreal is 2-4 in this round. In its franchise history, Tampa Bay is 1-2 in this round.

Minnesota won its last two games with Chicago after losing previous five; five of last seven games in series stayed under. Wild won three of last four games; they haven't played since Sunday- they gave up two or fewer goals in their last six wins. Chicago won three of last four games; five of their last six went over the total- they've been off since Saturday. Minnesota split its two appearances in the 2nd round. Chicago won last four series in this round; they won Stanley Cup in '10 and '13.

2015 NHL playoffs
Washington vs NY Rangers
Wash 2-1, +$143, U5

Tampa Bay vs Montreal

Calgary vs Anaheim
Ana 6-1, -$190, O5.5

Minnesota vs Chicago

NHL

Friday, May 1

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. MONTREAL
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Montreal
Montreal is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Montreal is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

9:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Minnesota

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**Udog** · 05-01-2015, 09:06 AM

NHL

Friday, May 1

Top regular season under teams meet in second round

Two of the top three under teams left in the NHL playoffs start their series Friday when thre Minnesota Wild travel to the Windy City to take on the Blackhawks. The two teams combined for a 56-81 over/under record in the regular season.

Both teams have predicated their playoff hopes on defensive hockey with the Blackhawks ranking second in defense (2.27 gpg) and the Wild sixth (2.41 gpg). Neither team has been better than average offensively though, with the teams ranking twelfth (Wild) and seventeenth ('Hawks) respectively.

Special teams also have a lean towards low scoring affairs. The teams rank in the top third of penalty kill and in the bottom third in powerplay percentage.

The current total for the Game 1 affair between the Wild and 'Hawks on Friday is 5.

**Udog** · 05-01-2015, 09:58 AM

NHL

Friday, May 1

Two hot NHL betting trends hold firm after Thursday's Game 1 results

Under bettors feasted yet again on New York Rangers games as Game 1 of the Blueshirts' Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Washington Capitals finished south of the closing total.

The Rangers lost 2-1 on a late goal by Caps' forward Joel Ward. The 2-1 scoreline was the fourth straight in Rangers' games during the postseason and fifth out of six overall, fueling a 1-5 Over/Under record in the quest for the Stanley Cup.

Dating back to the 2011 postseason, the Rangers have skated to an Over/Under record of 16-33-19 in 68 postseason games. If you've blindly bet the under, you've cashed in at a rate of 67.3 percent.

In the Western Conference, the Calgary Flames' futility in Anaheim continued with a 6-1 to the Ducks in Game 1.

The Flames have now lost 20 consecutive games (regular season and playoffs) in Anaheim, with their last win coming on April 25, 2006 in Game 3 of their playoff series against the Ducks. Calgary won that game 5-2.

Taking into account Thursday's loss and two regular season meetings in California, the Flames have been outscored 15-6 in three games thus far.

**Udog** · 05-01-2015, 10:03 AM

Kentucky Derby betting horse-by-horse preview and picks

Saturday’s 141st running of the Kentucky Derby is one of the most anticipated in years loaded with potential superstars. Here’s a horse-by-horse look at the field for the Run for the Roses:

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Jockey - Elvis Trujillo, odds - 50-1): Tiny colt won the first three races of his career but there’s too much speed in this field for him to be a true contender and you don’t win this race from the rail.

2. Carpe Diem (John Velazquez, 10-1): Texas Red, who was believed to be a big Derby threat before being injured is the lone horse to beat this one in five career starts but Carpe Diem’s times haven’t been that great. A contender but one with question marks.

3. Materiality (Javier Castellano, 12-1): Is unbeaten in three career starts and ran a 110 speed figure, the highest in the field, in winning the Florida Derby. Unraced as a two-year-old, which generally raises the white flag, and wants to run from the front, which is a bigger concern against these.

4. Tencendur (Manny Franco, 30-1): Last race, a second in the Wood was his best yet, but even that won’t get the job done here. Pass.

5. Danzig Moon (Julien Leparoux, 30-1): Wowed the clockers in a work on April 18 at Churchill Downs but has just one win in five starts and seems destined to finish in the middle of the pack.

6. Mubtaahij (Christophe Soumillon, 20-1): Irish import won at Dubai and will be the wise guy’s pick but these foreigners never seem to run well here. Should be able to get the distance.

7. El Kabeir (Calvin Borel, 30-1): Seems to be going backward and is a step below these. Borel always seems to make some noise but even he seems to be near the end of his great career.

8. Dortmund (Martin Garcia, 3-1): The giant colt, a son of Big Brown, enters the race not only undefeated in six career starts but with gritty victories in his last three outings including the Santa Anita Derby where he lost his shoe at the start and still won by 4½ lengths. His biggest drawback is the fact he likes to run from the front and there is better early speed in here which could cause the Bob Baffert charge to alter strategy.

9. Bolo (Rafael Bejarano, 30-1): Finished third to Dortmund in last two starts and is trained by Carla Gaines who looks to become the first female conditioner to win the Derby. Expected to be better on the turf.

10. Firing Line (Gary Stevens, 15-1): Stevens returned from retirement in 2013 and will try to win the Derby at age 52. Firing Line rolled in the Sunland Derby and if you like Dortmund you have to believe this one can pull the upset.

11. Stanford (Florent Geroux, 30-1): Stanford was scratched Thursday afternoon and replaced by No. 21 Frammento.

12. International Star (Miguel Mena, 15-1): Has won three straight and earned the most qualifying points in the field but his lone run at Churchill Downs was a stinker as was his lone Grade I event.

13. Itsaknockout (Luis Saez, 30-1): Will serve as hunch bet on the day of the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight; finished second in the Florida Derby but was moved to first after winner, Upstart, was disqualified.

14. Keen Ice (Kent Desormeaux, 50-1): Just 1-for-7 lifetime but his closing style gives him an outside shot to make a bit of noise in the deep stretch if he’s not too far back by then.

15. Frosted (Joel Rosario, 15-1): Tapit colt will take some money at the windows but his best races have been at New York and the Wood field was soft. Does have closing ability if a speed duel develops.

16. War Story (Joe Talamo, 50-1): Tends to start slowly which is a death-knell in a big field. Speed figures are also far behind the top choices.

17. Mr. Z (Ramon Vazquez, 50-1): Highly-touted yearling but he hasn’t won since his debut 12 races back and is a proven notch below the top contenders.

18. American Pharoah (Victor Espinoza, 5-2): Some questioned the soft field and fractions in the Rebel win but he came back to crush a good group in the Arkansas Derby that was more impressive than anything that Dortmund has ran. Bob Baffert trainee is not only the choice here but his dynamic works also make one feel that he is in such razor-sharp form that he is a legitimate Triple Crown threat.

19. Upstart (Jose Ortiz, 15-1): A true contender at a nice price and one has to like the fact that he breaks just outside of the favorite. Upstart ran wide the entire Florida Derby finishing second, has never been worse than third in seven career outings and could mount a big charge down the stretch.

20. Far Right (Mike Smith, 30-1): Had a successful meet at Oaklawn but was no match for American Pharoah in last outing, the Arkansas Derby, despite finishing second. Always tries hard so he is a threat to hit the board. How about an 18-19-20 trifecta?

21. Frammento (Corey Nakatani , 50-1): Drew into the field after Stanford was scratched. Decided longshot with no speed figures to merit consideration but trainer Nick Zito likes to have an entry in this race.

Also Eligible: Tale of Verve (Brian Hernandez Jr., 50-1).

Picks: 1. American Pharoah. 2. Upstart. 3. Dortmund. 4. Firing Line.

**Udog** · 05-01-2015, 10:10 AM

NHL

Friday, May 1

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Friday's NHL Playoffs betting cheat sheet
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Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens (-124, 5)

The Tampa Bay Lightning were swept out of the postseason by Montreal a year ago but will get a shot to avenge that humbling defeat when they visit the Canadiens on Friday night in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series. The Lightning battled back from a 3-2 series deficit against Detroit to earn a rematch with Montreal, which edged out Tampa Bay by two points for the Atlantic Division title.

The Lightning dominated the regular season against the Canadiens, winning all five matchups by a combined 21-8 margin and posting three victories in Montreal. "We're probably the only team in the playoffs with home-ice advantage that's the underdog," said Canadiens coach Michel Therrien, whose team has been idle since eliminating Ottawa on Sunday in Game 6 of their opening-round series. Montreal goaltender Carey Price on Thursday was among three finalists named for the Hart Trophy, which goes to the league's most valuable player. He'll be opposed by Tampa Bay netminder Ben Bishop, who missed last season's four-game sweep due to a dislocated elbow.

LINE HISTORY: The Canadiens opened as -133 favorites, but have been bet down to -124. The total of 5 has not shifted since open.

ABOUT THE LIGHTNING: Bishop, who blanked Detroit in Wednesday's Game 7, could be the "X" factor for Tampa Bay after posting a career-high 40 victories and beating the Canadiens five times this season, allowing a total of eight goals. The Lightning do have two issues that need to be rectified: Their power play converted on only 2-of-30 chances against the Red Wings while captain Steven Stamkos, the NHL's second-leading goal scorer with 43, failed to tally in the series to stretch his postseason drought to 10 games. Tyler Johnson did most of the heavy lifting versus Detroit with a trio of two-goal games and has four tallies in eight career contests against Montreal.

ABOUT THE CANADIENS: Price established league highs in wins (44), goals-against average (1.96) and save percentage (.933) to become the first netminder to lead the NHL in all three categories since 1990-91, but he was torched for 16 goals in going 0-4-1 against the Lightning this season. Price had to come up big against Ottawa due to the struggles of Montreal's offense, which managed six regulation goals in the final five games and was woeful on the power play with one tally in 20 chances. "There’s really no one out there who can say they have a good power play and it’s making the difference for them," defenseman P.K. Subban said. "But, we know that it can be the difference as the playoffs go on.”

TRENDS:

*Lightning are 8-0 in their last 8 Conference Semifinals games.
*Canadiens are 5-0 in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
*Over is 6-1-2 in the last 9 meetings.
*Under is 4-0 in Lightning last 4 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.

Minnesota Wild at Chicago Blackhawks (-128, 5)

The Minnesota Wild are hoping the third time truly is a charm when they open their Western Conference semifinal series against the Chicago Blackhawks at United Center on Friday. Minnesota has been eliminated by Chicago in each of the last two postseasons, dropping a first-round matchup in five games in 2013 and falling in last year's conference semifinals in six contests.

The Wild enter this matchup having knocked off the Central Division champion for the second straight time, defeating St. Louis in six games after ousting Colorado in seven last postseason. Chicago is coming off a hard-fought first-round triumph over Nashville in six games, with one contest going to double overtime and another needing three extra sessions - both won by the Blackhawks. One of three Original Six teams remaining in the playoffs, Chicago won all three of its home games versus the Predators while being led by captain Jonathan Toews, who finished the first round leading the league in scoring with eight points - including three goals. The Blackhawks will turn back to Corey Crawford, who gave way to Scott Darling after starting the first two games against Nashville before coming on in relief in Game 7 and notching the decisive victory.

LINE HISTORY: The 'Hawks opened as -135 before dropping to -128. the opening total of 5 has remained steady.

ABOUT THE WILD: Minnesota is counting on Vezina and Masterton Trophy finalist Devan Dubnyk to continue his superb play against Chicago. The 28-year-old turned aside 56-of-57 shots in helping the Wild win the final two meetings of the regular season after dropping the first three of the five-game series. "He definitely gives us a lot of confidence," Wild forward Kyle Brodziak said of Dubnyk, who went 27-9-2 with five shutouts and a 1.78 goals-against average after being acquired from Arizona. "He came and calmed things down and let us get back to our game. We feel very confident with him back there."

ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS: Chicago nearly went scoreless in its two regular-season encounters with Dubnyk, as Bryan Bickell scored with 1:48 remaining in the third period of a 2-1 loss on April 7. The Blackhawks know they have a tough task ahead if they hope to advance to the conference final for the second straight postseason and fourth in the last six years. "He is one of the strengths in their game," forward Marcus Kruger said of the netminder. "He's been great for them since he's been there. I know that is something we need to talk about, to find a way to score on him."

TRENDS:

*Wild are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.
*Blackhawks are 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
*Over is 4-1-3 in Wild last 8 overall.
*Under is 12-4-3 in Blackhawks last 19 games following a win.

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Announcement

Friday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 5/1

Friday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 5/1

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