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**Udog** · 03-16-2015, 08:49 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

-- Last three years, #1 seeds are 4-8 vs spread in the first round.

-- Since 1987, #2 seeds are 105-7 SU in first round, but 9-3 last three years; over last eight years, #2 seeds are 18-14 vs spread in first round.

-- Last eight years, #3 seeds are 20-12 against the spread in first round.

-- Odd fact; over last 15 years, the #4 seed in West is 3-12 vs spread in first round, with five SU losses. The West 4-13 game this year in North Carolina-Harvard.

-- #6 seeds have fared well recently, going 9-2-1 vs spread last three years.

-- If you must bet an 8-9 game, just take the points; over the last eight years, dogs are 22-10 vs spread in 8-9 games

**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Early thoughts, notes on the field of 68.....

13) If you look at the last 11 national champs, those teams were a combined 20-2 vs spread on the first weekend of the tournament. Teams that struggle the first weekend have seldom gathered momentum, improved and won it all.

12) Looks like Wyoming winning the Mountain West KO'd Colorado State from the field of 68; would like to be a fly on the wall next winter, when the Rams go visit Utah State, since Utah State's AD is the head of the Selection Committee.

11) Then there is Boise State, which has a play-in game in Dayton, against Dayton. How in the name of Don Donoher is this allowed? Looks like Dayton would've been the team that got KO'd had UConn beat SMU Saturday. Now they get a home game. Very bad draw for Boise State.

10) San Diego State's Dwayne Polee started his college career by playing 33 games for St John's four years ago; now the Aztecs face the Johnnies Friday in Charlotte. Steve Lavin suspended his big man Obekpa for two weeks, so he is out for this game.

9) Georgia State won a tense, ugly Sun Belt final 38-36 over Georgia Southern; after the game, coach Ron Hunter was celebrating with his son Ron Jr, when the coach tore his achilles tendon. Panthers play Thursday, so coach Hunter will be coaching with lot of painkillers in him this week.

8) Albany plays Oklahoma; Great Danes won their fifth America East title Saturday; they won a play-in game but are 0-4 in first round games, losing by 12-27-12-12 points vs marquee teams, covering three of the four games.

Sooners got beat in first round last two years, getting upset by North Dakota State LY; their last tournament win was six years ago.

7) Big East teams were 2-4 overall in tournament LY, the first post-realignment year; last two years, Big East teams are 5-7 SU in first round.

6) Eastern Washington won at Indiana this year; they're #14 in country, making 39.6% of its 3-pointers. Eagles play a Georgetown team that hasn't defended the 3 well this season. Problem is, Big Sky teams are 1-14 in last 15 first round games, and only win was Montana's win over Nevada (not a power 5 team) in '06.

5) Belmont soph Taylor Barnette started his college career at Virginia, where he played 26 games two years ago. He'll see his old friends Friday in Charlotte.

4) I was SHOCKED when I saw Manhattan in a 16-seed play-in game; am told the Jaspers were not happy at all to be in Kentucky's bracket, with the game in Louisville. Last 12 years, MAAC tourney champ has been a 16-seed once ('07), a 15-seed twice ('12 and '13)-- mostly a 13 or 14 seed.

On the other hand, if Manhattan wins the play-in game, Calipari will not ba a happy guy to face the Jaspers as a 16-seed- they lost to Louisville by 7 last year in NCAAs.

3) Duke lost in first round two of last three years and sleptwalked past Albany by 12 two years ago, but last seven times Duke was a 1-seed, Blue Devils are 5-2 vs spread in its first round game those years.

2) North Florida will be fun to watch in the play-in game; seven of its players have scored 20+ points in at least one game this season. Don't forget, Atlantic Sun schools have posted upsets in last two tournaments (Florida Gulf Coast/Belmont).

1) Surprising fact: Last ACC team in Final Four? Duke in 2010, though Louisville and Syracuse were there more recently, just before joining the ACC.

**Udog** · 03-16-2015, 08:49 AM

American League Central preview: White Sox join the party for division title

Detroit Tigers (2014: 90-72, -380 units, 84-72-2 O/U)

Division odds: 9/4
Season win total: 84.5

Why bet the Tigers: Their lineup is just as imposing as ever. Even if there are a couple of holes, as long as Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are around to anchor the order, it will put up big numbers. I strong believe the Tigers won the deal that sent Rick Porcello to the Red Sox in exchange for slugger Yoenis Cespedes.

Why not bet the Tigers: Will their pitching staff hold up its end of the bargain? Losing Max Scherzer hurts. Their bullpen will likely face a heavy workload and isn’t exactly dripping with talented arms. There’s going to be an awful lot of pressure on the offense to produce, which it will, but getting involved in slugfest after slugfest could be a recipe for disaster.

Season win total pick: Under 84.5

Chicago White Sox (73-89, -148 units, 80-75-7 O/U)

Division odds: 9/4
Season win total: 81.5

Why bet the White Sox: The White Sox didn’t sit idle in the offseason, acquiring the likes of Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche to add to a lineup that appears poised to bust out in 2015. Of course, it’s Chicago’s starting rotation that shows the most promise. Chris Sale and Jeff Samardzija make up as good of a 1-2 punch as you’ll find in baseball. The emergence of Jose Quintana last year makes the future that much brighter.

Why not bet the White Sox: The secret is already out. Most bettors are anticipating major progress from the White Sox this season. If they’re able to get off to a strong start, the value could be quickly sucked out of the equation. The back-end of Chicago’s rotation is a question mark and the reality is, Sale, Samardzija and Quintana aren’t going to win every start.

Season win total pick: Under 81.5

Cleveland Indians (85-77, +126 units, 76-83-3 O/U)

Division odds: 12/5
Season win total: 84.5

Why bet the Indians: The young core that led the Tribe’s resurgence in 2014 remains intact entering the new campaign. If last year’s numbers hold up and Brandon Moss is able to make an immediate impact, Cleveland should be in contention all season long. The Indians batting order is sneaky-good from top-to-bottom and this is a team that could fly beneath the radar of most bettors’ once again providing substantial value.

Why not bet the Indians: We have to anticipate at least some regression from last year’s breakout performers such as Lonnie Chisenhall and Yan Gomes. The same goes for surprise A.L. Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. How much regression we see (if any at all) will determine how far the Tribe can go and whether they’re worth laying your hard-earned money on.

Season win total pick: Over 84.5

Minnesota Twins (70-92, -654 units, 87-69-6 O/U)

Division odds: 18/1
Season win total: 71.5

Why bet the Twins: It would be easy for the opposition to overlook the Twins every time they take the field. Most have Minnesota pegged as one of the A.L.’s worst teams in 2015 but there’s no dominant team in the Central and that could help the Twinkies exceed expectations. They did make small upgrades in a number of areas during the offseason and it won’t take much to improve on last year’s results.

Why not bet the Twins: The offense will be inconsistent while the young pitching staff needs a lot more seasoning before it can start progressing. There are still considerable growing pains to endure in Minnesota, even after a campaign that saw the Twins fail in struggle in virtually every department. Patience may pay off for Twins fans, but for bettors, this team can only be considered a spot play.

Season win total pick: Over 71.5

Kansas City Royals (89-73, +317 units, 73-81-8)

Division odds: 9/2
Season win total: 80.5

Why bet the Royals: They did win the A.L. Pennant last year and return plenty of talent from that club. Everyone is expecting regression from Kansas City in 2015, as you can tell by the below .500 season win total most books are dangling. That could potentially open up serious value backing what remains a quality team in a manageable division.

Why not bet the Royals: There were a number of changes made in the offseason and few of them figure to improve the Royals net results. There was a lot of luck involved in last year’s run to the World Series. How will this club, which isn’t exactly used to success, respond to being the hunted rather than the hunters? One thing’s for sure, the departure of James Shields leaves a gaping hole at the top of the starting rotation.

Season win total pick: Under 80.5

**Udog** · 03-16-2015, 08:49 AM

NCAA Tournament Opening Betting Line Report: Oddsmakers open Oregon-Oklahoma State at pick 'em

OK, the NCAA Tournament bracket is out, and there’s much gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands about who got seeded where, and who got left out. But let’s get to what’s really important here:

What’s the spread?

The tourney’s round-of-64 on Thursday and Friday – 16 games per day of pure basketball bliss – will have its share of blowouts, nailbiters and shockers. Covers got a trio of oddsmakers to weigh in on the games they found most challenging to set the line on: Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology; John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu; and Mike Jerome, oddsmaker for topbet.eu.

WEST REGION

No. 4 North Carolina (-9) vs. No. 13 Harvard

“These two teams are total polar opposites,” said Simbal, whose operation runs several Las Vegas sportsbooks, including the M, the Palms, Cosmopolitan and
the Venetian. “Harvard wants to score 45 points a game and win, and Carolina wants to score 85 points a game and win.

“The Ivy League does a good job of dictating pace in NCAA Tournament games. We tossed around 7 points (to) 10 points. We had more conversation about
this game than any other game.”

No. 5 Arkansas (-7) vs. No. 12 Wofford

It looks like a mismatch, but Simbal warns against leaping too quickly.

“We have Wofford in the top 30 in all of our defensive metrics, which historically bodes quite well for tournament teams,” he said, noting that puts the Terriers in the top-10 percentile among the 300-plus NCAA Division I teams. “I wouldn’t be surprised if that number creeps toward Wofford as the week goes on.”

No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State, pick ‘em

“The big question is what kind of defense will show up for Okie State?” Lester said. “Because we know Joseph Young and the Ducks can put up points in bunches. The Cowboys are quite bipolar, and this could get ugly if Mr. Hyde shows up.”

Jerome chimed in on this game, too.

“If there is a game that looks like a coin toss, it’s this one,” he said. “And it makes sense, as the line is a pick 'em.”

No. 7 Virginia Commonwealth vs. No. 10 Ohio State (-2.5)

“VCU is a bit overrated in our eyes, but people recognize the Rams as a giant-killer come tourney time,” Lester said. “This is a good matchup, but the Buckeyes’ D'Angelo Russell should have his way here, and the absence of VCU’s Briante Weber (torn ACL last month) cannot be underestimated.”
Jerome isn’t counting out the Rams.

“Shaka Smart has his team playing great basketball when it matters,” he said. “The Buckeyes, on the other hand, have been a bit inconsistent, yet are a slight
2.5-point favorite.

SOUTH REGION

No. 4 Georgetown (-8) vs. No. 13 Eastern Washington

This game presents about as long a road trip as possible for the Hoyas, and about as short a trip as possible for the Eagles.

“It’s in Seattle. That’s always tricky, because it’s basically a home game for Eastern Washington,” Simbal said, noting he and his oddsmaking crew prefer the straight math of numbers, and that these quasi-home games skew that formula. “There was a similar situation two years ago when UNLV played California in San Jose. Do you treat that as a home game or not? And even if you don’t treat it as a home game, the public will treat it as a home game.”

Lester had some thoughts on this game, as well.

“It feels like a very similar matchup that Georgetown had a few years ago against Ohio,” he said. “The Eagles run and chuck up a lot of 3-pointers. The squares have no clue about Eastern Washington, but the sharps certainly know who Tyler Harvey is, so we had to be careful with the line.”

No. 5 Utah (-6) vs. No. 12 Stephen F. Austin

This could be one of those seemingly annual 12-5 upsets.

“Stephen F. Austin won a game in the NCAA Tournament last year, and they’re returning everyone,” Simbal said. “The Lumberjacks were huge favorites in all their (Southland) Conference games, and covered most of them. Utah is a team that struggled late and lost a bunch of games.”

No. 8 San Diego State (-2.5) vs. No. 9 St. John’s

“The Chris Obekpa suspension complicates things a bit for St. John's. The Red Storm will have to adjust in a big way,” Lester said. “You can't ever really trust San Diego State in this tournament, but the Aztecs will have a big advantage on the boards.”

The game has no shortage of name recognition on the bench, too.

“It’s another game with some big-name coaches: San Diego State’s Steve Fisher, St. John’s Steve Lavin, and Gene Keady, an assistant with the Red Storm,” Jerome said. “Good defense vs. good offense usually equals a win by the defensive-minded team.”

No. 11 UCLA vs No. 6 Southern Methodist (-3)

“SMU’s Larry Brown faces the team he used to coach back in the 1970s,” Jerome said. “Many ‘experts’ didn’t like how UCLA got a favorable seed. SMU will likely be one of the more popular bets on Thursday. SMU opened at -2 and moved to -3 less than an hour later.”

MIDWEST REGION

No. 6 Butler vs. No. 11 Texas, pick ‘em

Many TV analysts were growling about Texas even getting into the tournament. For oddsmakers, it created some difficulty, too.

“We knew the trickiest team was going to be Texas,” Simbal said. “By all the statistics and the math, the Longhorns are a top-20 team. But they can’t win a close game if their life depended on it. Now, they’re playing Butler, which is a similar team. They both like to grind it out.”

The implication: Grind-it-out games are close games, which don’t typically suit Texas.

No. 4 Maryland (-4) vs. No. 13 Valparaiso

Simbal said the Terrapins are the antithesis of Texas, presenting an altogether different challenge.

“The math and the statistics don’t match up, but they win every close game. They are super good in close games,” he said, noting the Terps went 9-1 in games decided by 5 points or less. “We have them at -4 as a No. 4 seed against a 13 seed. That shows how confident – or unconfident – we are in them.”

No. 7 Wichita State (-5) vs. No. 10 Indiana

“Wichita State deserved better than a No. 7 seed, and this is a tough matchup,” Lester said. “Indy will want to run, run, run, while the Shockers will try to slow everything down. We'll probably be split on this game, but the Hoosiers could easily ‘upset’ the Shockers.”

Jerome agreed with Lester.

“It seems like the Shockers got slighted a bit, while Indiana seemed to get seeded a lot higher than many thought,” Jerome said.

No. 8 Cincinnati vs. No. 9 Purdue (-1)

“This is a tough draw for Purdue, because its bigs should be offset by a Cincy squad that can also bang down low,” Lester said. “It should be a very grind-it-out type of game, and it could come down to which team can hit some shots from outside.”

No. 5 West Virginia (-4) vs. Buffalo

“Coach Bobby Hurley has got the Bulls playing bullish hoops,” Jerome said. “West Virginia is only laying 4 because Juwan Staten (knee) is questionable.”

EAST REGION

No. 5 Northern Iowa (-7.5) vs. No. 12 Wyoming

The Cowboys present a dilemma because they wouldn’t be in the field if they hadn’t won the Mountain West Conference tournament, and they wouldn’t have won the tournament if Larry Nance Jr. hadn’t returned late last month after missing a handful of games with mononucleosis.

“Nance was the Player of the Year in the Mountain West, so Wyoming will have the best player on the court,” Simbal said. “But it’s very hard to handicap because of (the time Nance missed). Who knows how good they would’ve been if he had been there all year?”

Lester keyed in on this game, as well.

“I think Wyoming is a very good squad with two high-caliber players in Larry Nance Jr. and Josh Adams. The Cowboys play defense, grind, and they are healthy,” he said. “Like Wichita State, Northern Iowa got a bad draw and may be underseeded. This could very well be a 5/12 upset.”

Jerome also weighed in on the mid-major dual.

“Two schools lock horns from two of the best mid-major conferences -- the Missouri Valley and the Mountain West,” he said. “Northern Iowa has the best player on the floor in Seth Tuttle, but he could be neutralized by Nance.”

No. 4 Louisville (-9) vs. No. 13 UC Irvine

“Rick Pitino better put together a good game plan, because this is a ripe spot for an upset,” Lester said. “Louisville is overseeded, but the betting public has no clue about UC Irvine, so this is a tough line to set.”

No. 8 North Carolina State (-1) vs. No. 9 Louisiana State

“LSU really should be ashamed of the way it lost to Auburn in its last game,” Jerome said. “There’s big injury news here, with N.C. State's Anthony Barber (head). He is listed as probable to play.”

**Udog** · 03-16-2015, 08:51 AM

NCAA East: Villanova, Virginia yin-yang of region

EAST REGION

Top seeds: 1) Villanova, 2) Virginia, 3) Oklahoma, 4) Louisville

How the East is won: What makes the East region so great is that its best teams are really more than the sum of their parts.

Villanova might have its best team in program history, even if the Wildcats can't replicate the 1985 squad that brought a National Title back to suburban Philadelphia. Jay Wright's top six scorers all average between 9.2 and 14.0 ppg, a spectacular balance that makes them incredibly difficult to guard, and he's got them playing tough defense even late in blowout games -- the mark of a team that is incredibly well-coached.

As good as the Wildcats are on the offensive end, No. 2 seed Virginia is equally as good defensively. The Cavaliers held an astounding 15 opponents to fewer than 50 points this year, including doing so against fellow NCAA Tournament teams Louisville, NC State and Harvard, who only managed 27 points in a loss back in December. Tony Bennett has a long, athletic team that plays hard and plays smart, a winning formula no matter what time of the season it is.

Very likely, the path to the Final Four will run through one of the above two teams, who both look like they're on a mission to make it to Indianapolis. Both Louisville and Oklahoma have looked shaky over the last few weeks, and it's not often in late March that teams suddenly flip a switch and become elite.

Upset Watch: There's been a trend of late of No. 15-seeds beating No. 2-seeds, especially if that No. 2-seed happens to be Duke -- which lost to Lehigh in 2012 and Mercer last year. Duke's not in the East regional, but another ACC school has to be very careful, with Virginia drawing Ohio Valley Conference champs Belmont in the first round. The Bruins are one of the top shooting teams in the country, shooting 47.6 percent from the floor -- good enough for 25th in the country. If they can get going, the Cavaliers could be in trouble.

Another team that has to be very careful early on is fifth-seeded Northern Iowa, which gets Mountain West champion Wyoming in the 5-12 matchup. Historically, the 12-5 upset happens about 40 percent of the time, and this could certainly be one of those matchups. UNI is no joke, going 30-3 out of the a very tough Missouri Valley Conference, but Wyoming took down two other NCAA Tournament teams in Boise State and San Diego State to win the MWC tournament this weekend.

Get to Know: Villanova junior point guard Ryan Arcidiacono isn't the flashiest player in the bracket, but the Big East co-MVP just gets the job done. Arcidiacono seems to come up with big plays at the biggest of times, like his feed to Darrun Hilliard to beat Butler on the road or his forced turnover against Syracuse to help 'Nova complete a wild comeback against the Orange.

The Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year, Northern Iowa's Seth Tuttle of is a 6-foot-8 senior forward who averaged 15.3 ppg and 6.8 rpg, leading UNI to a spectacular 30-3 record and MWC tournament championship. The Iowa native is a versatile offensive player, with the ability to step out and knock down a 3-pointer (42.9 percent) when he's open.

What a year it's been for Albany senior guard Peter Hooley, who went through a lot over the last few months. The Australia native missed eight games in the middle of the season to be with his mother, who passed away from cancer in late January. He returned to lead the Great Danes to a miracle comeback in the America East championship game, canning the game-winning 3-pointer with less than five seconds to play in a 51-50 victory.

Virginia suffered a big blow in the middle of the season when 6-foot-6 junior wing Justin Anderson suffered a broken finger on his left hand in a Feb. 7 win over Louisville, though they would shake it off to win seven in a row without him. After two scoreless games in the ACC tournament, Anderson (12.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg) needs to get back somewhere to his usual self to help UVa to a deep tournament run.

One to see: If you're going to watch any game from the first round, check out Villanova-Lafayette. Sure, the 1-16 matchup hasn't traditionally been the most competitive in the tournament's history -- no 16-seed has ever pulled the upset -- but there's some more recent data to look at with this particular matchup.

Last year, the Leopards came down to Villanova with a very similar roster, and actually were in a tie game with eight minutes remaining before the Wildcats pulled away for a 75-59 win. Lafayette coach Fran O'Hanlon is a Villanova alum, and you can bet his players are going to be fired up about giving their head coach a chance to make history in the NCAA Tournament against his alma matter.

Rock, Chalk: This is certainly a tough region, with Villanova and Virginia both putting together stellar overall seasons against very difficult schedules. 'Nova looks like they've got the easier path to the Elite 8, given that Louisville has gone 5-5 over its last 10 games heading into March Madness, but Oklahoma isn't quite used to seeing defenses like Virginia's in the Big 12.

If anybody's going to stop Villanova's multi-faceted attack, it would seem likely to be Virginia, who's got the athletes to defend the Wildcats all over the court. In a time of year that's become known for its upsets and Cinderella stories, this is one region where the chalk holding could provide for the most entertaining games.

Numbers Inc.:

32 -- Number of wins for Villanova, a program record and tied for the most in Big 5 history.

3 -- Consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances for Albany under head coach Will Brown.

90 -- Height, in inches, of UC Irvine center Mamadou N'Diaye, a 7-foot-6 sophomore who is the tallest player currently in NCAA Division I.

0 -- The number, in miles, that Dayton will have to travel to play its First Four game against Boise State; the game, as with all First Four games since 2011 will be played at Dayton Arena.

50.7 -- Points allowed per game by the Virginia defense, which was the best in the country this season. Northern Iowa was fourth at 54.3.

See you in Indy: Villanova. The best team Jay Wright's had in his 14 years at the school gets it done, making it to the Final Four for the first time since 2009.

**Udog** · 03-16-2015, 08:51 AM

NCAA South: Duke's demons open up region

SOUTH REGION

Top seeds: 1) Duke, 2) Gonzaga, 3) Iowa State, 4) Georgetown

How the South is won: Given Duke's recent one-and-done flameouts the last two years, one can make a case this is the most wide-open region. Arguably the best Gonzaga team in Mark Few's tenure and a resilient Iowa State side can be considered the Blue Devils' equals at this stage, although Georgetown as a No. 4 seed seems somewhat surprising.

One thing in Duke's favor is that none of the top four seeds have really made memorable postseason runs in recent years. Gonzaga went into the tournament as a No. 1 seed two years ago and was ousted by Wichita State in the third round, a loss which looked a bit better when the Shockers reached the Final Four. Iowa State was a Sweet 16 team last year.

While Utah slumped near season's end, the Utes appear to have gotten a reasonable draw as a No. 5 seed. Guard Delon Wright is the type of versatile player who can will a team to a win any time out, and if 7-0 freshman Jakob Poeltl can avoid foul trouble, Utah will have the inside-outside combo to give anyone trouble.

UCLA's inclusion in the field is somewhat surprising, given that it had just two wins in nine tries against ranked teams this year. But the Bruins looked like an NCAA team in Friday night's Pac-12 semifinal loss to Arizona.

Upset Watch: Look out for Eastern Washington against Georgetown in the 4-13 game. Eastern is the nation's second-ranked team offensively, and as Tom Crean's Indiana team found out in non-conference play, it is capable of beating a big boy.

The 10-12 seeds are also capable of blowing up brackets. Stephen F. Austin, which plays Utah in a 12-5 game, bumped off VCU last march in a second round contest.

Get to Know: A classic one-and-done freshman, Duke's Jahlil Okakor will be a lottery pick in June. Okafor may be a below-average defender, but he can score and rebound in concert like few in the college game. His post presence makes the Blue Devils a tough cover in the half court.

It only seems like Gonzaga's Kevin Pangos has been there for 10 years. The Zags' unquestioned floor leader may be the program's best lead guard since John Stockton.

Utah's hoops renaissance owes much to 6-foot-5 senior Delon Wright, the program's first two-time first team all-conference pick in 15 years. Wright routinely stuffs the stat sheet in three categories and provides leadership.

One to see: It's hard to imagine a matchup of more contrasting styles than San Diego State and St. John's in the second. West vs. East, old school coach (Steve Fisher) against the still-hip Steve Lavin, great defensive team against a team full of good athletes. This should go down to a last shot.

Rock, Chalk: With depth at every position, Gonzaga has never been better equipped for a Final Four run than it is this March. In a potential regional final with Duke, it has plenty of bigs to battle Okafor and the versatility to play at any pace.

Numbers Inc.:

1 -- The first-ever NCAA berth for North Florida.

3 -- The number of starters UCLA saw leave for the NBA last spring with eligibility still remaining.

8 -- The number of scholarship players Duke had at one point following a spate of injuries and the dismissal of senior guard Rasheed Sulaimon.

10 -- Davidson's seed this year. When Stephen Curry led it to an Elite Eight berth in 2008, it was as a No. 10 seed.

15 -- The number of wins by 20 or more points this season for Utah, the most in Division I.

**Udog** · 03-16-2015, 08:52 AM

NCAA Midwest: Can undefeated Kentucky be stopped?

MIDWEST REGION

TOP SEEDS: 1) Kentucky, 2) Kansas, 3) Notre Dame, 4) Maryland

How the Midwest is won: The one certainty on Selection Sunday was Kentucky being tabbed the tournament's overall top seed.

That never was in jeopardy, like most of the Wildcats' games this season.

Kentucky capped its captivating campaign by romping through the SEC tournament en route to a 34-0 overall record, becoming just the fourth team to enter the Division I men's tournament undefeated since Indiana's run to perfection in 1975-76. The last three, Indiana State (1979), UNLV (1991) and Wichita State (2014).

Those Hoosiers won it all. Can Kentucky?

More than a couple teams could stand in their way.

Second-seeded Kansas, ACC tournament champion and No. 3 seed Notre Dame and fourth-seeded Maryland are obviously the top threats to topple Kentucky.

The Fighting Irish have perhaps the most confidence of anybody, though, having knocked off Duke and North Carolina on consecutive days to claim the ACC tourney title.

Upset Watch: Bobby Hurley hasn't been to the Big Dance in more than two decades, but he knows what it takes to win when he is there.

Hurley, named the tournament's MVP in 1992 when he helped Duke win the national title, is heading back as coach of Buffalo after winning 23 games and the MAC tournament title. It's Buffalo's first-ever berth in the NCAA tournament, where the 12th-seeded Bulls will try and shock No. 5 West Virginia.

Twelve seeds are 8-4 against No. 5s the past three years.

The 11th-seeded Texas Longhorns were in the perilous position of missing the tournament altogether after compiling a 20-13 record and finishing sixth in the Big 12, but snuck in thanks to playing the 16th toughest schedule in the country. They could get past No. 6 Butler with a strong showing from point guard Isaiah Taylor, who averaged 13 points and 4.6 assists per game.

Get to Know: Kentucky forward Willie Cauley-Stein averaged only 9.2 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, but the 7-foot junior affected more than his fair share of games with his defensive prowess.

That's hardly the only Wildcat to watch.

Kentucky guards Aaron Harrison and Devin Booker led the team in scoring at 11.3 and 10.7 points per game, respectively, while forward Karl-Anthony Towns averaged 9.8 points and 6.8 rebounds, teaming with Cauley-Stein to form not only one of the greatest hyphenated tandems in recent memory, but one of the most feared low-post duos in the country.

Notre Dame guard Jerian Grant averaged 16.8 points and 6.6 assists per game, but saved his best for last. Grant scored 24 points and had 10 assists against North Carolina, igniting a 26-3 second-half surge that led the Fighting Irish to the ACC tournament title.

One to see: If seventh-seeded Wichita State can get past Indiana, an intriguing matchup against Kansas looms. Despite an early exit from the MVC tournament, the Shockers boast a core of players who nearly finished off an undefeated season last year. Fred Van Vleet, Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton return to the tournament one season after watching their title hopes end in the third round in a gut-wrenching loss to Kentucky.

Luck of the Irish: Notre Dame put together one of the program's best seasons, finishing with the most regular-season wins (26) in school history. The encore was even better, knocking off both Duke and North Carolina in consecutive days to claim the ACC tourney title. The Fighting Irish have won eight of their last nine games, thanks to sharpshooting from beyond the arc -- ranking 18th in the country in 3-point percentage (39.2) -- and have perhaps the best shot at beating top-seeded Kentucky.

Numbers, Inc.:

1 -- Kansas' strength of schedule

2 -- Coaches Butler has had this season after Brandon Miller took a leave of absence and never returned

78.8 -- Notre Dame's points per game, the most of any team in the region

11 -- National titles won by the region's top two seeds, Kentucky and Kansas

8 -- Championships won by Kentucky

6 -- Games Kentucky needs to win it all

38 -- Years since a team finished a perfect season with a national title

See you in Indy: Kentucky. Hard to argue with 34-0.

**Udog** · 03-16-2015, 08:52 AM

NCAA West: Deja vu for Wisconsin, Arizona?

WEST REGION

Top seeds: 1) Wisconsin, 2) Arizona, 3) Baylor, 4) North Carolina

How the West is won: If the seeds hold, it will be a West regional final rematch from last season, when Wisconsin beat Arizona 64-63 in an overtime classic, as it was a one-possession game for the final 17 minutes, 9 seconds.

This is the first top seed in Wisconsin history. Arizona hasn't been to the Final Four since 2001, losing in a regional final four times since then.

The West's four seeds collectively look to be the most dangerous in the field. Baylor was tested by Big 12 fire this season, and the Bears have length, athleticism, a tricky zone defense and superb offensive rebounding. North Carolina is sometimes enigmatic, but the Tar Heels have size and do-it-all point guard Marcus Paige, who can sprinkle magic all over the bracket.

Upset Watch: The NCAA Tournament often turns into a guard's game, and No. 10 Ohio State has one of the best around in freshman sensation D'Angelo Russell, who averages 19.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists while dazzling with a high basketball IQ. The Buckeyes open against No. 7 VCU.

No. 13 Harvard, which draws North Carolina in its first game, is making its fourth consecutive appearance in the Big Dance. The experienced Crimson, led by Ivy League Player of the Year Justin Sears, knows all about upsets, having won one game in each of the last two tournaments.

Get to Know: Perhaps the leading candidate for national player of the year, Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky is matchup nightmare. He's a 7-footer with deft feet and touch around the rim while hitting 39 percent of his 3-point shots.

Arizona has a balanced offensive attack, but point guard T.J. McConnell fuels the engine with a savvy pass-first approach. He's a pit-bull of a point guard who developed a deadly mid-range game during the Pac-12 season.

BYU guards Kyle Collinsworth and G Tyler Haws are two of the best players in program history, and their scoring power (a combined 35.9 points per game) will be a threat to watch ... if the Cougars can get past Ole Miss in a first-round game that feeds to the No. 11 seed.

Oklahoma State G Le'Bryan Nash and Oregon guard Joseph Young provide a terrific matchup of elite senior scorers in an 8-9 game, with Nash having 20 career 20-point efforts.

One to see: Fifth-seeded Arkansas went 10-3 down the stretch, with two of the losses coming to unbeaten Kentucky. The Razorbacks, led by SEC Player of the Year Bobby Portis (17.5 points, 8.6 rebounds per game), are in line for another blue-blood matchup in the second round against North Carolina. If you thought college basketball was an unwatchable slog this season, tune in for this one to see two teams that want to run.

Rock, Chalk: Wisconsin slipped by Arizona last season, when the Wildcats bemoaned the fact they did not have anyone to match up with the versatile Kaminsky. The answer this season could be athletic 6-foot-9 Brandon Ashley, who missed the meeting last March because of a midseason foot injury. Ashley, a junior, is playing the best basketball of his career, earning Most Outstanding Player honors at the Pac-12 tournament.

Numbers Inc:

3 -- Losses in a regional final, in three tries, for Arizona coach Sean Miller, considered by some to be the best active coach to not get to the Final Four. One of those regional final losses came at Xavier.

6 -- Triple-double this season for BYU G Kyle Collinsworth, tying an NCAA career record.

19.8 -- Points per game for Georgia State G R.J. Hunter, a potential first-round pick for the 14th-seeded Panthers.

25 -- Points for Wisconsin F Nigel Hayes in the Big Ten title game. He's the athletic X-factor for the Badgers.

41.8 -- Offensive rebounding percentage for Baylor, which grabs its own misses better than all but one team in the country.

77.8, 77.0 -- Free-throw percentages for Ole Miss and BYU, which rank third and fifth nationally, respectively. They meet in a first-round game.

See you in Indy: Arizona. The Wildcats will grind through the bracket with defense, rebounding and the leadership of T.J. McConnell.

**Udog** · 03-16-2015, 08:58 AM

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, March 16

Hot teams
-- Kings won four of their last six games.

Cold teams
-- Sabres lost their last six games. Washington lost six of its last ten games.
-- Lightning lost last two games, scoring two goals. Montreal lost five of its last seven games.
-- Edmonton lost its last seven games. Toronto lost seven of its last nine games.
-- Coyotes lost 14 of their last 15 games.

Series records
-- Sabres won four of last five games with Washington.
-- Lighting is 3-0 vs Montreal this season, outscoring Canadiens 12-3.
-- Maple Leafs won their last six games with Edmonton.
-- Kings won three of last four games with Arizona.

Totals
-- Eight of last nine Buffalo home games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Montreal road games stayed under.
-- Eight of last ten Toronto road games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Los Angeles home games stayed under.

Back-to-back
-- Washington is 0-7 on road if it played night before.

NHL

Monday, March 16

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Washington's last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 9 games at home

7:30 PM
MONTREAL vs. TAMPA BAY
Montreal is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 8 games
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Montreal
Tampa Bay is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games at home

9:30 PM
TORONTO vs. EDMONTON
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Edmonton
Edmonton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Edmonton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

10:30 PM
ARIZONA vs. LOS ANGELES
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 7 games at home
Los Angeles is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home

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**Udog** · 03-16-2015, 10:14 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Monday, March 16

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WASHINGTON (37-23-0-10, 84 pts.) at BUFFALO (19-43-0-6, 44 pts.) - 3/16/2015, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-5 (+0.4 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 5-3-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.4 Units)

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MONTREAL (43-19-0-7, 93 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (42-21-0-7, 91 pts.) - 3/16/2015, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 43-26 ATS (+7.2 Units) in all games this season.
MONTREAL is 17-8 ATS (+8.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5 or less this season.
MONTREAL is 27-18 ATS (+47.2 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 21-11 ATS (+10.0 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 18-8 ATS (+7.8 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
MONTREAL is 19-9 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MONTREAL is 8-2 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 8-6 (+0.5 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 8-6-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.6 Units, Under=-1.0 Units)

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TORONTO (27-37-0-6, 60 pts.) at EDMONTON (18-39-0-12, 48 pts.) - 3/16/2015, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 5-24 ATS (+39.5 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 this season.
TORONTO is 6-26 ATS (+40.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 7-17 ATS (+26.2 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
TORONTO is 1-12 ATS (+19.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
TORONTO is 6-22 ATS (+37.3 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 5-22 ATS (+38.3 Units) in road games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 6-16 ATS (+23.9 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game this season.
TORONTO is 11-19 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
TORONTO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 18-51 ATS (-36.7 Units) in all games this season.
EDMONTON is 11-36 ATS (+72.8 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
EDMONTON is 6-27 ATS (+51.0 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
EDMONTON is 7-29 ATS (+53.4 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 5-21 ATS (+41.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
EDMONTON is 7-21 ATS (+40.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-0-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.8 Units)

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ARIZONA (21-40-0-8, 50 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (33-22-0-13, 79 pts.) - 3/16/2015, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 21-48 ATS (+88.0 Units) in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 7-25 ATS (+47.8 Units) second half of the season this season.
ARIZONA is 4-21 ATS (+37.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
ARIZONA is 1-11 ATS (+15.8 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 33-35 ATS (+84.6 Units) in all games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 12-14 ATS (-8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 7-6-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)

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**Udog** · 03-16-2015, 11:25 AM

NHL

Monday, March 16

Unders cash on the ice Sunday night

Bettors who wagered on the under in the NHL totals market Sunday night went home happy, with the under going 5-2.

With an average of just four goals scored per game Sunday, it's no surprise the under cashed at a rate of 71.4 percent.

The under has been trending the past week going 31-18 the last seven days.

**Udog** · 03-16-2015, 11:51 AM

NHL
Short Sheet

Monday, March 16

Washington at Buffalo, 7:05 ET
Washington: n/a
Buffalo: n/a

Montreal at Tampa Bay, 7:35 ET
Montreal: 16-17 after playing a road game
Tampa Bay: 6-1 SU after a home loss

Toronto at Edmonton, 9:35 ET
Toronto: 4-14 SU after playing 2 consecutive road games
Edmonton: 39-25 SU after 4 or more consecutive overs

Arizona at Los Angeles, 10:35 ET
Arizona: 13-41 SU as an underdog
Los Angeles: 21-15 SU in home games

Announcement

Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 3/16

Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 3/16

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