Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 1/19

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Monday, January 19

Good Luck on day #19 of 2015!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

College basketball conferences #13-18, according to kenpom.com

18) Sun Belt-- Wide-open as always; Georgia State is banged up right now.

17) CAA-- Wm&Mary was down 20 at half, won last week; they're tied for 1st.

16) C-USA-- Former Sun Belters La Tech/Western Kentucky are both 5-0.

15) Horizon-- Green Bay/Valparaiso/Cleveland State all tied at the top.

14) Ivy-- Haven't really started yet; Harvard is the heavy favorite.

13) Big West-- Cal-Davis has Hersey Hawkins' son, is in first right now.

**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend.......

13) Seahawks 28, Packers 22 OT-- Green Bay had the ball and a 19-7 lead with 5:04 left. From that point on, Seattle ran 17 plays for 206 yards, scoring three TDs as they pulled a rabbit out of a hat and won the NFC title with this unlikely win. Seahawks' first TD scored on a freakin' fake FG after they had converted a 3rd-and-19.

Its going to be a longer, colder than usual winter in Wisconsin.

12) Green Bay kicked 18 and 19-yard FGs in the first quarter, meaning they had two drives that stalled inside the 3-yard line; lot of people are criticizing McCarthy for kicking those FGs instead of going for TDs, but he had a 19-7 lead and the ball in the last 5:00-- things that went on in the first quarter aren't why they lost this game.

11) Seahawks are first team since the '82 Jets to win a postseason game in which they turned the ball over five times. Teams had lost 45 consecutive playoff games in which they turned the ball over five times.

10) Patriots 45, Colts 7-- These teams play again next season; please TV gurus, keep it off national TV, so I don't have to watch this carnage again. New England won its last six games against Indy, scoring 42.3 ppg in last four. This was an awful game.

9) As I type this late at night (did you know its summer in Australia and quite warm there today?), Super Bowl line has both teams favored by a point in various sports books, while other have game pick 'em.

This will be third time in last five years Super Bowl spread was less than three points, when there hadn't been any such games in the decade before that.

8) NFC won four of last five Super Bowls, if that matters to you.

7) Pete Carroll went 28-23 as coach of the Patriots from 1997-99, making playoffs two of three years, going 8-8 the third year, but he got fired, so New England could hire......Bill Belichick. I know its the Super Bowl and you don't need extra motivation, but how sweet would it be for Carroll to keep the Pats title-less since 2004?

6) This is only second time in last 20 years (Saints-Colts in '09) that both #1 seeds made it to the Super Bowl.

Hey, there's other stuff going on........
5) Last night I mentioned Martin Kaymer jogging to an easy win in Abu Dhabi; he had a 10-stroke lead with 13 holes to play. He lost.

After going 47 holes without a bogey, Kaymer went +6 in one 8-hole stretch. Oy.

4) Last week, Gary Kubiak issued a statement about how happy he was in Baltimore, helping John Harbaugh and the Ravens; then the Broncos lost and John Fox got fired. Now, Kubiak is the new coach of the Broncos. Go figure.

Baltimore at Denver would be a fun primetime game next season.

3) Washington Nationals signed Max Scherzer to a 7-year contract, meaning they will probably be trading Jordan Zimmerman/Ian Desmond soon.

2) DePaul 71, St John's 67-- Blue Demons are 4-2 in Big East, after going 10-98 the previous six conference seasons. Not sure if DePaul is that much better or of the Big East is that much worse, but good for Oliver Purnell.

1) Major League Baseball is bizarre; they named Mets' owner Fred Wilpon head of baseball's finance committee; this is same guy who was in bed with Bernie Madoff and has been running the Mets like they were the Toledo Mud Hens ever since. Oy.

[Udog]

Super Bowl Opening Line Report: Patriots' performance forces a pick'em

Four weeks of preseason. Seventeen weeks of regular season. Three weeks of playoffs.

Now we’re down to the real meat and potatoes of the NFL season, with the final two contestants taking their rightful place in the Super Bowl, set for Feb. 1 at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. The two No. 1 seeds will square off: the defending champion Seattle Seahawks against the New England Patriots, with the game at pick ‘em in most spots, and Seattle perhaps a 1-point chalk elsewhere.

John Lester, senior lines manager at bookmaker.eu, installed the Seahawks as 1-point favorites, with the total at 48.5.

“We’ve got top-seeded teams meeting in the Super Bowl, so this line wasn’t terribly hard to set,” Lester said. “I don’t think you could argue with a pick ‘em, but we opened the defending champs as 1-point chalk, which coincidentally is the same number and side we used for last year’s Super Bowl spread.

“Of course, the Broncos quickly became favorites in that one.”

How Seattle got there this time, in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game at Century Link Field, was almost beyond belief.

Any reasonable bettor – hell, even an unreasonable one – who was told, “OK, the Seahawks will need to convert a fake field goal for a touchdown, successfully cover an onside kick, complete a Hail Mary of a 2-point conversion, and oh yeah, overcome five turnovers to win this game,” would have laughed and promptly bet the house on Green Bay.

Such a bettor would have still won against the spread, but would be as stunned as the Packers at the final score: Seattle 28, Green Bay 22, in overtime, with the Packers cashing as hefty 8.5-point road underdogs. The Seahawks scored two touchdowns in less than a minute late in the fourth quarter to erase a 19-7 deficit. After the second score, they made a ridiculous 2-point conversion to go up 22-19, but allowed the Packers to drive for a game-tying field goal to force the extra frame.

Then Seattle marched down the field on the strength of two long Russell Wilson passes, the second a 35-yard TD strike to Jermaine Kearse to end the game on the first possession of OT. It was as crazy a playoff game as there’s ever been in this league.

In complete contrast, the AFC Championship Game had all the shock value of a dead 9-volt battery on the tip of your tongue. Host New England, laying seven points at kickoff, led Indianapolis 14-0 in the first quarter, and the outcome was never in doubt as the Patriots rumbled, 45-7.

Patriots QB Tom Brady will be making his sixth Super Bowl appearance, seeking his first title since the 2004 season, as he’s come up empty on his last two trips. His team’s impressive effort against Indy brought the Super Bowl opening line down in a hurry.

Scott Kaminsky, general manager at offshore site TheGreek.com, said his shop actually offered Seattle at -3 in the Super Bowl before the Seahawks and Packers even kicked off. He took the line down during that game, put it back up around halftime of the Pats-Colts contest, and bettors hammered New England from that point forward.

“It’s been all New England money, and it’s down to a pick ‘em,” Kaminsky said, noting the total was holding steady at 49. “Everybody, it was like the whole world, was on the Patriots – smart players and recreational players. With every touchdown, a little more money came in. It was just like a snowball effect. So now we’ll start from pick ‘em and see what happens.”

Lester said he likes where things are lining up early, as it should lead to plenty of wagers on both sides by Super Bowl Sunday.

“I expect we’ll have a lot of different opinions on this game, which should equate to great two-way action,” Lester said. “I don’t foresee this line fluctuating much at all.”

[Udog]

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, January 19

Hot teams
-- Islanders won four of their last five games.
-- Canucks won three of their last four games.
-- Minnesota won last two games, after losing previous six.
-- Blues won six of their last seven games.
-- Calgary won seven of its last ten games.

Cold teams
-- Philly lost eight of its last 12 games.
-- Toronto lost last four games, scoring once. Hurricanes lost four of last five road games.
-- Florida lost last three games, allowing 15 goals.
-- Blue Jackets lost four of their last five games.
-- Colorado lost three of its last four games.
-- Los Angeles lost seven of its last nine games.
-- New Jersey lost 13 of its last 18 games. Sharks lost four of last five at home.

Series records
-- Islanders won last two games with Philly, after losing previous five.
-- Hurricanes won seven of last nine games with Toronto.
-- Panthers won three of last four games with Vancouver.
-- Blue Jackets won last four games with Minnesota.
-- Blues won seven of last nine games with Colorado.
-- Kings lost five of last seven games with Calgary.
-- Sharks won their last four games with New Jersey.

Totals
-- Over is 7-3 in Philadelphia's last ten road games.
-- Nine of last eleven Toronto home games went over.
-- Five of last seven Vancouver road games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Columbus road games went over.
-- Six of last seven Colorado road games stayed under.
-- Seven of Kings' last ten home games went over.
-- Under is 12-5 in Devils' last 17 road games.

Back-to-back
-- None

[Udog]

NHL

Monday, January 19

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Trend Report
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1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NY ISLANDERS
Philadelphia is 18-7 SU in their last 25 games when playing NY Islanders
Philadelphia is 15-4 SU in their last 19 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders
NY Islanders are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of the NY Islanders last 12 games at home

7:30 PM
CAROLINA vs. TORONTO
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Toronto's last 13 games when playing Carolina

7:30 PM
VANCOUVER vs. FLORIDA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vancouver's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Vancouver's last 7 games when playing on the road against Florida
Florida is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Vancouver
Florida is 5-11-4 SU in its last 20 games ,when playing Vancouver

8:00 PM
COLORADO vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing Colorado

8:00 PM
COLUMBUS vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Columbus's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Columbus is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Columbus
Minnesota is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games

10:30 PM
CALGARY vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Calgary's last 10 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Los Angeles's last 10 games at home
Los Angeles is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

10:30 PM
NEW JERSEY vs. SAN JOSE
New Jersey is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games
New Jersey is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
San Jose is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
San Jose is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home


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[Udog]

MLK Day Matinee Betting Cheat Sheet

Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders (-190, 6)

With four victories in their last five games, the New York Islanders have guaranteed themselves their coveted first-place position in the Metropolitan Division heading into the upcoming All-Star break. The Islanders can pad their three-point lead when they vie for their third straight victory over visiting Philadelphia Flyers on Monday afternoon. Captain John Tavares collected a goal and an assist, but fellow All-Star Jaroslav Halak yielded six goals on 33 shots in New York's 6-4 setback to Montreal on Saturday.

The pair enjoyed much better performances in the first meeting with Philadelphia, as Tavares scored in the shootout and Halak made 21 saves in a 1-0 victory on Nov. 24. Steve Mason turned aside a season-best 46 shots in a losing effort in that contest and is still nursing a knee injury. Former Islanders defenseman Mark Streit scored to lift the sputtering Flyers to a 4-3 triumph over Buffalo on Saturday.

TRENDS:

* The Islanders are 4-1 in their last five overall
* The Over is 4-1 in their last five clashes
* The Flyers are 20-7 in their last 27 meetings in New York

[Udog]

NHL
Long Sheet

Monday, January 19

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PHILADELPHIA (18-21-0-7, 43 pts.) at NY ISLANDERS (30-14-0-1, 61 pts.) - 1/19/2015, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY ISLANDERS are 30-15 ATS (+51.4 Units) in all games this season.
NY ISLANDERS are 14-2 ATS (+11.5 Units) vs. division opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 5-4 (+0.5 Units) against the spread versus NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 5-4-0 straight up against NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.6 Units)

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CAROLINA (15-25-0-5, 35 pts.) at TORONTO (22-21-0-3, 47 pts.) - 1/19/2015, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 15-7 ATS (+8.0 Units) in January games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 25-35 ATS (+64.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 7-16 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 5-2 (+3.5 Units) against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 5-2-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.7 Units)

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VANCOUVER (25-15-0-3, 53 pts.) at FLORIDA (20-13-0-10, 50 pts.) - 1/19/2015, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 17-32 ATS (-18.5 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 10-3 ATS (+13.1 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 118-107 ATS (+232.9 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5 or less since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 149-95 ATS (+26.7 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
FLORIDA is 92-134 ATS (+244.8 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5 or less since 1996.
FLORIDA is 164-193 ATS (-72.8 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
FLORIDA is 59-94 ATS (-53.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 2-1 (+2.0 Units) against the spread versus VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 2-1-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.0 Units)

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COLUMBUS (19-21-0-3, 41 pts.) at MINNESOTA (20-19-0-5, 45 pts.) - 1/19/2015, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLUMBUS is 83-85 ATS (+191.3 Units) in January games since 1996.
COLUMBUS is 17-12 ATS (+32.3 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 35-24 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 18-6 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 5-13 ATS (-12.7 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 4-2 (+2.3 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBUS is 4-2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+5.0 Units)

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COLORADO (19-17-0-10, 48 pts.) at ST LOUIS (28-13-0-4, 60 pts.) - 1/19/2015, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 74-61 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 58-39 ATS (+18.8 Units) in road games in January games since 1996.
COLORADO is 36-23 ATS (+10.3 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 33-22 ATS (+10.5 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 7-4 (+0.9 Units) against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 7-4-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+6.1 Units)

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CALGARY (24-18-0-3, 51 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (20-14-0-11, 51 pts.) - 1/19/2015, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 13-4 ATS (+17.2 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
CALGARY is 12-4 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a division game this season.
LOS ANGELES is 20-25 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 128-144 ATS (-20.8 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 1-5 ATS (-8.0 Units) in home games in January games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 1-5 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 5-5 (+3.8 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 5-5-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.4 Units)

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NEW JERSEY (16-22-0-8, 40 pts.) at SAN JOSE (24-16-0-6, 54 pts.) - 1/19/2015, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE is 3-0-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.9 Units)

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[Udog]

NHL
Dunkel

Vancouver at Florida
The Canucks head to Florida tonight to face a Panthers team that is 0-4 in its last 4 home games. Vancouver is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Canucks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-130). Here are all of today's NHL picks.

MONDAY, JANUARY 19

Game 1-2: Philadelphia at NY Islanders (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.211; NY Islanders 11.302
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+170); Under

Game 3-4: Carolina at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.600; Toronto 10. 733
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+135); Under

Game 5-6: Vancouver at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.557; Florida 11.023
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-130); Over

Game 7-8: Columbus at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.021; Minnesota 12.113
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-175); Over

Game 9-10: Colorado at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.774; St. Louis 10.812
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-220); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+185); Under

Game 11-12: Calgary at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.220; Los Angeles 11.331
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+155); Under

Game 13-14: New Jersey at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.122; San Jose 12.314
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

[Udog]

NHL
Short Sheet

Monday, January 19

Philadelphia at NY Islanders, 1:05 ET
Philadelphia: 46-71 SU when playing their 8th game in 14 days
NY Islanders: 20-8 SU as a favorite

Carolina at Toronto, 7:35 ET
Carolina: 15-7 SU in January games
Toronto: 30-50 SU in home games revenging a road loss versus opponent by 2 goals or more

Vancouver at Florida, 7:35 ET
Vancouver: 12-22 SU revenging a loss vs opponent of 2 goals or more
Florida: 10-3 SU in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses

Columbus at Minnesota, 8:05 ET
Columbus: 17-12 SU in road games second half of the season
Minnesota: 8-20 SU after scoring 3 goals or more in 2 straight games

Colorado at St Louis, 8:05 ET
Colorado: 4-13 SU after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread
St Louis: 24-5 SU in home games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread

Calgary at Los Angeles, 10:35 ET
Calgary: 12-4 SU after a division game
Los Angeles: 9-13 SU after having lost 2 of their last 3 games

New Jersey at San Jose, 10:35 ET
New Jersey: 28-17 SU in road games revenging a home loss versus opponent of 2 goals or more
San Jose: 3-9 SU after scoring 3 goals or more in 2 straight games