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**Udog** · 12-08-2014, 08:53 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

-- Six most popular picks in the Westgate Hotel handicapping contest, where some of the best handicappers in America put up $1,500 apiece, pick five games a week:
went 3-2 this week, are now 45-38 this season.
My first impressions after a quick look at the bowl matchups........

-- Independence Bowl is good matchup: Miami-South Carolina; looks like Willie Robertson (from Duck Dynasty, sponsors of this bowl) got a good game here.

-- Fresno State-Rice is the Christmas Eve game from Hawai'i; hope they've got some college basketball on that night, too.

-- Only three bowl teams so far (Colorado State/Florida/Nebraska) have changed head coaches since the regular season ended. The domino effect of coaching will make that number go up in the next few weeks.

-- There was a time when Arkansas-Texas was one of the marquee games every season. Bret Bielema lost his last 12 games decided by 7 or less points.

-- If the school was "Texas" instead of "TCU" with the exact same resume, think they'd get screwed out of a spot in the playoff? No way in hell. TCU plays Ole Miss in an interesting Peach Bowl.

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday.......

Ravens 28, Dolphins 13-- Miami led 10-0, wound up getting outgained 447-249, as we wonder if losing to one Harbaugh brother increased their chances of being coached by the other Harbaugh brother next year. Fish are 2-3 in last five games after laying an egg in last two games LY when they were 8-6. Miami owner Ross is a Michigan alum.

Steelers 42, Bengals 21-- Cincy led 21-17 after third quarter; Pitt gained 229 yards on 20 plays in fourth quarter, scoring 25 points to pull away for the win. Last week Bengals were only team in division to win; this week, they were only one to lose. Pitt had five plays of 20+ yards, all on first down-- they were more aggressive today.

Giants 36, Titans 7-- How does Jameis Winston look in powder blue? Tennessee lost its last seven games, covering one of last six; they allowed 41.3 ppg in last three games. Giants snapped 7-game losing streak. Giants had a 14-yard edge in field position; this week, teams with a 10+-yard edge in field position were 6-0 (70-3 for season).

Vikings 30, Jets 24 OT-- Minnesota scored on 87-yard pass in OT, so if you had the Jets +4.5, this was a tough one. Jets had ball in red zone five times, kicked four FGs and lost a fumble, which is really where they lost this game. Vikings won four of last six games, covered six of last seven.

Colts 25, Browns 24-- Indy turned ball over four times (-2) with two run back for Cleveland TDs; Colts were 0-2 on 2-point conversions, but they scored a TD when they had to, getting winning score with 0:32 left. You lose at home when you score two defensive TDs, it might be time to change QBs, I'm just sayin'......

Texans 27, Jaguars 13-- Jags and Oakland won't be drafting QBs, so if Tennessee takes Winston, who takes Mariota? (or other way around) Will a mediocre team like Houston trade up to grab someone they think is The Answer? Texans scored three TDs in this game. on drives of 52-84-26 yards. Jags led 13-10 at the half.

Panthers 41, Saints 10-- Home side won Saints' first seven games, lost their last six, with New Orleans losing its last four home games; they've allowed 27+ points in their last five games, giving up 271 rushing yards to a Carolina team that was 1-8-1 in its last ten games coming in. Who replaces Rob Ryan as Saints' DC next year?

Lions 34, Buccaneers 17-- Tampa Bay lost eight of last nine games, with one win by three TDs over Washington; how awful are the Redskins? Stafford was 8-for-9 for 158 yards and a TD targeting Calvin Johnson. Bucs ran ball 14 times for 26 yards in whole game; they might be a team interested in Mariota in April's draft.

Rams 24, Redskins 0-- St Louis scored 83 points since last time they allowed one; you say they played Raiders/Redskins, I say Oakland beat Chiefs/49ers in last three weeks. Kicker Zuerlein kept Washington in game in first half by kicking like Charlie Brown, missing a PAT and 28/38-yard FGs. Jay Gruden must really dislike RGIII.

Broncos 24, Bills 17--- Was theory on Twitter late Sunday that Peyton Manning is hurt, since Denver is playing timidly on offense since loss in St Louis. Broncos had a 23-yard edge in field position but didn't cover, with Bills scoring twice in last 11:00. Buffalo had 77-49 edge in plays run, both teams turned it over three times. Broncos ran ball 29 times, threw it 20-- what does that say?

Cardinals 17, Chiefs 14-- Arizona was beneficiary of terrible replay reversal with 5:23 left; they ruled Chiefs' TE Kelce fumbled on Arizona 16, when it was fairly clear he did not. KC didn't score in second half, lost third game in row. Cardinals stay two games ahead in NFC West with three to play. I can't stand watching Alex Smith play; reminds me of the 70's Rams with Pat Haden. Take some chances, man!!!!

Raiders 24, 49ers 13-- Oakland won two of last three games, lost 52-0 in between the wins; seems apparent that Jim Harbaugh won't be with the 49ers next year, so where does he go and who replaces him? Next coaching staff better have a QB guru, someone who can make Kaepernick a more accurate passer.

Seahawks 24, Eagles 14-- Total yardage: 440-139. Philly misses DeSean Jackson; their WRs are lot less explosive than last year. Last time Eagles played game decided by less than 10 points was October 26. Cowboys-Eagles is big game next week. Who thought Mark Sanchez would be in the middle of a pennant race?

Patriots 23, Chargers 14-- NFL has to make hits by DBs reviewable, as far as hits to the head go. Patriot DB had a great hit on Green last night, causing an INT; there was no head-to-head contact, it was shoulder-to-shoulder but it was violent so they threw a flag. Nowadays you get penalized for doing your job too well.

**Udog** · 12-08-2014, 08:54 AM

NCAAF opening line report: 'Bama nearing double-digit chalk in Sugar Bowl

The regular season in the Football Bowl Subdivision has come to a close. Well, almost anyway. We still have the traditional Army-Navy game next weekend, but all eyes are much more firmly focused on the first-ever four-team playoff in the FBS.

Those two games – and the other four that the selection committee was charged with determining – should be roof-raisers. So let’s get right to it as John Lester, senior lines manager at bookmaker.eu, takes us through the matchups.

SUGAR BOWL (semifinal playoff game)
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-9.5)

Nick Saban and Urban Meyer meet again. The Crimson Tide (12-1 SU, 5-8 ATS) capped the regular season with a 55-44 shootout win over archrival Auburn giving 9.5 points at home, then hammered Missouri 42-13 Saturday in the SEC championship game as a 14.5-point chalk.

Ohio State (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS) is somewhat of a surprise here. The Buckeyes lost starting QB Braxton Miller in the preseason, and backup J.T. Barrett suffered a broken ankle two weekends ago in a win over Michigan. But third-stringer Cardale Jones helped orchestrate a 59-0 beatdown of Wisconsin in Saturday’s Big 10 title game, with the Buckeyes rolling despite being a 4-point underdog.

“Bettors don’t forget all the big games the Buckeyes have been in over the last handful of years, and how they were utterly embarrassed in most of them,” Lester said. “Ohio State certainly has its share of fans and supporters, which is part of the reason it’s in the playoff, but I expect we’ll be dealing a double-digit spread when this one closes. Alabama teasers will be aplenty.”

ROSE BOWL (semifinal playoff game)
Florida State Seminoles vs. Oregon Ducks (-8)

Florida State (13-0 SU, 3-10 ATS) hasn’t lost a game SU in more than two years, winning 29 in a row. That includes Saturday’s ACC championship game, a 37-35 victory over Georgia Tech, though again the Seminoles failed to cover as 3.5-point faves. The ‘Noles are nearly at rock-bottom against the oddsmakers, sitting 127th out of 128 teams.

Oregon (12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS) is arguably the hottest team in the country, having won eight in a row SU and ATS, all by double digits and seven by 18 points or more. In Friday’s Pac-12 title game, the Ducks avenged their only loss this season, whitewashing Arizona 51-13 laying 14.5 points.

“The Ducks come into a stadium where they are very comfortable playing, and they should have the majority of the crowd support,” Lester said. “The weaknesses of Florida State are well documented, and the ‘Noles haven’t seen an offense like this since last year’s title game. Oregon should be able to name its score. Again, players will be lining up to tease an Alabama-Oregon national championship.”

Peach Bowl
Mississippi Rebels vs. Texas Christian Horned Frogs

TCU (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS) felt like it was robbed of a spot in the four-team playoff, dropping from No. 3 to No. 6 after capping the season with routs of 48-10 at Texas as a 4.5-point fave and 55-3 over Iowa State on Saturday as a 34.5-point home chalk. The Horned Frogs finished the year tied with Western Michigan for the best spread-covering mark in the nation.

Ole Miss (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) had its season derailed by a late-season three-game SEC skid (with a meaningless win over Presbyterian sandwiched in there). But the Rebels ended the year by dumping archrival Mississippi State 31-17 as a 2.5-point home underdog.

“As it is every bowl season, time to get that motivation model out,” Lester said. “Will TCU be eager to show the world they deserved to be in the playoff, or will they go through the motions because they egregiously got left out? I see this playing out as more of a defensive battle, because we’ve got two pretty salty ones on tap.”

Cotton Bowl
Michigan State Spartans vs. Baylor Bears

Like TCU, Baylor believed it was snubbed by the selection committee in being kept out of the playoff games. The Bears (11-1 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) ended the regular season on a 5-0 SU run (4-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 38-27 home win over Kansas State giving 7 points.

Michigan State (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) bounced back from a loss to Ohio State to win its last three SU and ATS. The Spartans bested Penn State 34-10 giving 10 points on the road in their Nov. 29 regular-season finale.

“It’s a long trip for the Spartan contingent, while Baylor is very close to home,” Lester said, noting the game is at AT&T Stadium. “We’ve seen Michigan State give up some big numbers to quality passing teams, and its secondary may not be able to keep up with the Bears’ big-bodied receivers. That said, the Sparties always seem to muster some extra motivation for the postseason.”

Orange Bowl
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Mississippi State (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) was on track for a spot in the four-team playoff, but dumped two of its last three games, falling at Alabama 25-20 as a 10-point underdog and ending the season with a 31-17 loss laying 2.5 points at Mississippi.

Georgia Tech (10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS) has been on fire at the betting window, cashing six in a row while winning five of those contests outright. The lone SU loss was in Saturday’s ACC final, a 37-35 setback catching 3.5 points.

“This is somewhat of a surprise matchup, but it is intriguing from a gambling standpoint,” Lester said. “The Bulldogs probably lucked out a bit not having to see TCU or Baylor, because those teams are more adept defending the run than the pass. Time is what you need to prepare for Tech coach Paul Johnson’s triple-option attack, and Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen will have three weeks to get his kids ready.”

Fiesta Bowl
Boise State Broncos vs. Arizona Wildcats

Boise State (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) got its berth by virtue of being the highest-ranked conference champion from the five minor FBS leagues. The Mountain West champion Broncos have won eight in a row SU (4-4 ATS), including a 28-14 victory over Fresno State giving 22.5 points in Saturday’s conference title game.

Arizona (10-3 SU, 5-8 ATS) found its way into one of the big six bowls despite getting boatraced in Saturday’s Pac-12 championship game, losing to Oregon 51-13 as a 14.5-point pup.

“You obviously have to factor in a huge home-field edge for the Wildcats. And we expect they’ll have quarterback Anu Solomon close to 100 percent after the layoff,” Lester said. “The Broncos should be extremely motivated to play well, but I don’t think Arizona is going to look past them. This one could be a quandary for a lot of handicappers.”

**Udog** · 12-08-2014, 08:54 AM

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, December 8

Hot teams
-- Penguins won five of their last seven games.
-- Blues won four of their last five home games.

Cold teams
-- Rangers lost ten of their last sixteen games.
-- New Jersey lost eight of its last ten games. Carolina lost nine of last twelve.
-- Florida is 2-8 this season in game following a win.

Series records
-- Rangers won four of last five games with Pittsburgh.
-- Nine of last twelve New Jersey games stayed under.
-- Blues won their last four games with Florida, blanking them in last two.

Totals
-- Last four Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Carolina games stayed under total.
-- Under is 5-2-2 in last nine Florida games.

Back-to-back
-- Hurricanes are 1-5 if they played the night before.

NHL

Monday, December 8

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
NEW JERSEY vs. CAROLINA
New Jersey is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Jersey's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing New Jersey
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Jersey

7:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. NY RANGERS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Pittsburgh's last 18 games when playing on the road against NY Rangers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Rangers last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Rangers last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
FLORIDA vs. ST. LOUIS
Florida is 2-8-1 SU in its last 11 games ,when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 7 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of St. Louis's last 14 games when playing Florida

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**Udog** · 12-08-2014, 10:36 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
The Penguins head to New York tonight to face a Rangers team that is 4-1 in the last 5 games versus Pittsburgh. New York is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-120). Here are all of today's NHL picks.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 8

Game 51-52: New Jersey at Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.262; Carolina 10.802
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-105); Over

Game 53-54: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 10.357; NY Rangers 11.958
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-120); Under

Game 55-56: Florida at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.367; St. Louis 12.768
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-200); Under

NHL
Long Sheet

Monday, December 8

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NEW JERSEY (10-13-0-4, 24 pts.) at CAROLINA (8-15-0-3, 19 pts.) - 12/8/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 91-104 ATS (-56.9 Units) in home games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW JERSEY is 4-3 (+0.5 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
NEW JERSEY is 4-3-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+4.5 Units)

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PITTSBURGH (18-6-0-2, 38 pts.) at NY RANGERS (11-10-0-4, 26 pts.) - 12/8/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY RANGERS are 3-8 ATS (-9.2 Units) in home games in December games over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 16-20 ATS (-15.2 Units) in home games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 112-113 ATS (-61.9 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 159-192 ATS (-127.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 10-21 ATS (-12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 10-8-0 straight up against NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.6 Units)

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FLORIDA (11-7-0-7, 29 pts.) at ST LOUIS (17-8-0-2, 36 pts.) - 12/8/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 172-235 ATS (-67.8 Units) after a division game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 2-0-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.2 Units)

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**Udog** · 12-08-2014, 11:45 AM

NHL

Monday, December 8

Corey Perry, Anaheim - day-to-day

Perry missed Sunday's game due to a lower-body injury and is questionable Wednesday against the Oilers.

Hurricanes' C Eric Staal, doubtful Monday

Staal is unlikely to play Monday against the Devils due to a foot injury.

Brodeur gets the call for St. Louis Monday

The St. Louis Blues will call upon 42-year-old goaltender Martin Brodeur as they host the Florida Panthers Monday evening.

Brodeur made his first start in a Blues uniform in a 4-3 loss versus the Nashville Predators on Dec. 4. He came on in relief of Jake Allen - and got the win - in the Blues' last game versus the New York Islanders on Saturday.

The future Hall-of-Famer has a 3.02 goals against average and .872 save percentage. The Blues are presently -201 home favorites.

**Udog** · 12-08-2014, 04:55 PM

NHL
Short Sheet

Monday, December 8

New Jersey at Carolina, 7:05 ET
New Jersey: 66-40 SU after having lost 4 of their last 5 games
Carolina: 87-95 SU in home games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game

Pittsburgh at NY Rangers, 7:05 ET
Pittsburgh: 47-15 SU after 1 or more consecutive unders
New York: 423-347 SU as a favorite

Florida at St Louis, 8:05 ET
Florida: 9-30 SU after a game where they covered the spread
St Louis: 21-33 SU in home games after playing a game where 9 or more total goals were scored

Announcement

Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 12/8

Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 12/8

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