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**Udog** · 11-05-2014, 09:10 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder with Week 10 approaching

-- Bengals are 12-1-1 in last fourteen home games.

-- Broncos are 10-4 as a road favorite.

-- Cowboys are 1-6 in last seven pre-bye games.

-- Saints are 16-3-1 in last 20 non-divisional games.

-- Steelers are 3-8 in last 11 games as a road favorite.

-- Arizona is 8-3-1 in its last dozen home games.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but........

13) This will remain fluid for the rest of the month, but if the college football tournament started today, the semi-finals would be:
-- Mississippi State vs Oregon
-- Florida State vs Auburn.

Alabama and TCU are the first two teams on the outside looking in.

12) Going to miss those political ads on TV—well, no I’m not. Whats the old joke? How do you know if a politician is lying? If his/her lips are moving.

11) Supposedly, Alex Rodriguez paid his cousin $1M to keep quiet about PED’s. Damn, I wish someone would pay me $1M to shut my mouth; I’d make Shields & Yarnell look like freakin’ auctioneers.

10) This is the month MAC football takes over ESPNU and ESPN2 on Tuesday, Wednesdays; I think Akron’s last four games are all on Tuesday nights.

I used to joke that teams would play at 4am if ESPN wanted them to, then the basketball tip-off marathon was born (Nov 18 this year) when there are actually games played at 6am and 8am local time in the east. It must help the schools involved or they wouldn’t do it.

9) European golfers Marcel Siem and Alexander Levy openly wagered 200 Euros (roughly $252) on each round of their tournament last week; not sure the powers-that-be were all that excited about openly gambling on a match during a tournament. Phil Mickelson is notorious for wagering on practice rounds, but that’s different.

8) Quick look at QB situations in the NFC East find Dallas/Philly starting different QBs this month because of injury. Washington started three different QB’s in their last three games then there are the Giants, where Eli Manning has started their last 158 games without a miss. The immobile Manning is struggling behind a shaky OL, but he plays every week and that’s important, to be a dependable player.

7) Phillies are rumored to be shopping 1B Ryan Howard, who can’t move, can’t hit lefties and makes $20M a year. Good luck there.

Only places I could conceive of him being useful would be Baltimore/Texas/Houston, AL teams with small home parks, but the Orioles are too smart for that. I guess Texas is a possibility. If the Astros traded for him it would be intriguing, since they’ve tried so hard to make Jonathan Singleton their 1B of the future.

6) If you live in Indianapolis, you might vote at Hinkle Fieldhouse, where Butler plays its basketball games and where the final basketball scenes in Hoosiers were shot. How cool would that be, voting where Jimmy Chitwood ran the picket fence.

5) Cleveland Indians gave Terry Francona a much-deserved contract extension thru 2018; I enjoyed listening to him on TV, but glad he is doing well running a ballclub. Still think the Red Sox screwed up getting rid of him, though they won a World Series with John Farrell, after the Bobby Valentine debacle.

4) Cleveland Browns are a surprising/uplifting 5-3, but QB Brian Hoyer’s contract is up after this year and the team has a lot of $$ tied up in Johnny Manziel. This has to be the owner’s call I would think, whether to re-sign Hoyer or plunge forward with Manziel. Am very curious to see what they do, because their players are watching too. You know damn well Hoyer has the other players’ trust. Cutting him loose would be very risky business.

3) Rockets 108, Heat 89-- Houston is off to a 5-0 start despite whiffing in their free agent dealings. Rockets made 17 of 36 behind the arc. Think the Thunder miss James Harden? He had 25 points, 9 rebounds, 10 assists in this game.

Kostas Papanikolaou has done really well replacing Chandler Parsons as a shooter; Houston was +17 when he was on the court in this game, even when he was off.

2) I highly recommend getting the NBA League Pass, tremendous entertainment on nights where there is a full schedule of games.

1) Cubs are said to be going heavily after free agent catcher Russell Martin, who will use the lack of quality catchers to become really, really rich this winter. Hope the Cubs are saving lot of money to buy some pitchers- thats what wins.

**Udog** · 11-05-2014, 09:11 AM

Six signs of a losing sports bet

Over the course of your sports betting career, you’re going to lose a good chunk of wagers for a million different reasons.

A missed field goal. A meaningless 3-pointer. A wild pitch. An empty-net goal. An injury to the star quarterback. The list goes on and on…

Some of those bet-busting phenomena are out of your hands, but some losing bets leave you smacking yourself in the forehead wondering, “What the hell was I thinking?!”

Most bad bets have tells – like a poor poker player - that you should look for before heading to the counter or clicking “OK”. We polled some of Covers Experts' sharpest handicappers to find out the “Six Signs of a Losing Bet”:

Betting against streaks

Steve Merril says it best: “Don’t try and catch a falling knife.”

All streaks come to an end and figuring out when is a high-risk, high-reward game. When sizing up a team on an extended losing slide, it may be best to wait until that club shows some signs of life and snaps the skid before getting down on them.

An old rule of thumb when it comes to sports betting is “never bet on a bad team”. While that may not sit right with some, it’s safe to say you should never bet on a bad team when they’re playing badly. That's just dumb.

Skewed stats/record

Often times the result on the scoreboard doesn’t quite reflect how a game played out. Teams can get completely outplayed on both ends, but turnovers or a couple costly errors from the other side can mask those troubles.

Marc Lawrence preaches in-depth stats-to-record research, coining the term “leaking oil” for those clubs that keep winning despite being outgained in their last three contests.

“When they're installed as a favorite, I will generally make a case against them as they are obviously not playing their best ball of the season,” Lawrence says of those team "leaking oil".

He points to the Missouri Tigers’ 24-14 lackluster win over Vanderbilt in Week 9, in which they failed to cover as big 22.5-point favorites after getting out-yarded in the three games previous.

Public overkill

The betting public is far more knowledgeable than ever before but there are still times in which too much “square” love is a bad thing. Many professionals are contrarian by nature and, while you shouldn’t blindly fade the public’s favorite plays each and every time, you can find good value on the other side of these public picks.

This past Saturday, for example, almost 65 percent of Consensus was on Georgia -11.5 versus Florida in their annual SEC rivalry game - the third-most public play for all Saturday's betting action. The Gators rushed for 418 yards and dominated time of possession, stunning UGA 38-20 and a taking a bite of the public's pockets.

Poor chemistry

It can be a new-look roster failing to jell, like the struggles we saw from the Miami Heat’s “Big Three” in 2010 (2-12 ATS skid in November 2010), or turmoil in the locker room between players and coaches, like what we’re currently seeing with the Chicago Bears – chemistry is key when betting on team sports.

Art Aronson of AAA Sports is always conscience of how a team is getting along, on and off the field of play. He faded Chicago, with tension rising between players and head coach Marc Trestman, when the Bears played at New England in Week 8. The line opened Chicago +7 and was bet down to +5.5 before the wheels came off the Monsters of the Midway, losing 51-23.

“Bettors who figured that the Bears would be able to set aside their difference and have enough bite to at least cover against the Pats in Foxboro were ripping up tickets well before halftime,” says Aronson. “They learned a valuable lesson - it’s hard enough to win in the NFL and when a team can’t set aside its differences and play together, it’s often impossible.”

Injury impact

Factoring how much an injury plays into the outcome of a game is one of the most difficult tasks a sports bettor can face. Often times a big-name injury can be overvalued, with oddsmakers making a slight adjustment to the odds and the betting public piling on.

Other injuries - ones that don’t command a knee-jerk modification to the line - can have a much bigger effect on a team and how they perform. Misreading into these missing players can quickly spoil a wager.

Georgia recently lost star RB Todd Gurley to suspension and bettors were quick to go against the Bulldogs in their game versus Missouri. However, a program like UGA has plenty of depth on the roster and rumbled for 210 rushing yards in a 34-0 blowout as a 3-point favorite.

On the flip side, the Cleveland Browns recently lost starting center Alex Mack to a broken leg – an injury that barely made a blip on the betting radar. With Mack making the snaps, Cleveland erupted for huge gains on the ground. But since his injury in Week 6 the Browns have run for an average of only 52.7 yards in the last three games, and because of it have gone just 1-2 ATS in that span.

Bad line

There’s a reason the wiseguys wager earlier in the week. Sharp money jumps on opening lines quickly, trimming valuable half points off the spreads and sucking as much as 20 to 30 cents out of the moneylines.

If you’re not betting on a football game – that’s had odds posted all week – until kickoff, chances are you’re not getting the best line for your buck. But, as we painfully know, that isn’t always enough to put on the breaks.

Betting for the sake of betting can instantly make any wager a losing wager. Football odds are tightening up this time of year, with books and bettors having a clear idea of what teams are all about. And the fresh NHL and NBA lines will stiffen up with every game played.

Those missed half points on the spread, handful of points on the total, and 30-cent differences on the moneyline are often the difference between winning and losing, whether immediately or over the course of the season.

**Udog** · 11-05-2014, 09:12 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Detroit at NY Rangers
The Red Wings head to New York tonight following a 3-1 loss at Ottawa last night and face a Rangers team that is 1-7 in its last 8 games when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Detroit is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100). Here are all of today's NHL picks.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 5

Game 1-2: Montreal at Buffalo (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 10.113; Buffalo 11.301
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-220); 5
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+185); Under

Game 3-4: Detroit at NY Rangers (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 13.055; NY Rangers 10.348
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 3; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100); Over

Game 5-6: NY Islanders at Anaheim (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 10.022; Anaheim 12.403
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 2 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, November 5

Hot teams
-- Anaheim won ten of its last twelve games.

Cold teams
-- Sabres lost seven of last nine games. Montreal lost last three games, outscored 14-4.
-- Red Wings lost three of their last four road games. Rangers lost three of last four games.
-- Islanders lost last three games, outscored 12-4.

Series records
-- Canadiens won their last five games with Buffalo.
-- Rangers won last three games with Detroit, allowing two goals.
-- Islanders lost five of last six games with Anaheim.

Totals
-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Montreal-Buffalo games.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Detroit-Ranger games.
-- Last three Islander-Anaheim games went over total.

NHL

Wednesday, November 5

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Trend Report
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7:30 PM
MONTREAL vs. BUFFALO
Montreal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Montreal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal

8:00 PM
DETROIT vs. NY RANGERS
Detroit is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Rangers
Detroit is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Rangers
NY Rangers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
NY Rangers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Detroit

10:30 PM
NY ISLANDERS vs. ANAHEIM
NY Islanders are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Anaheim
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Islanders last 6 games when playing Anaheim
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Anaheim's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Islanders
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Anaheim's last 6 games when playing NY Islanders

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**Udog** · 11-05-2014, 09:16 AM

NHL

Wednesday, November 5

Under banks big on the ice Tuesday

The Under posted an 8-3-1 record in the NHL Tuesday night, cashing in at a rate of 72.73 percent. The lone push came from the Chicago Blackhawks 5-0 rout of the Montreal Canadiens.

Season-to-date, the Under has registered a record of 99-70-14, good for 58.58 percent.

Wednesday has three games on the board as Montreal visits Buffalo, the New York Rangers host the Detroit Red Wings and New York Islanders continue their roadie at the Anaheim Ducks.

Line off the board as Ducks face goalie concerns

The Anaheim Ducks host the New York Islanders Wednesday night and lines are currently off the board as the Ducks move forward with serious goalie concerns.

Frederik Andersen is day-to-day with a leg injury, but more serious is John Gibson's groin injury. Gibson has been placed on IR and called up Igor Bobkov from Norfolk.

As of Wednesday morning, there had been no formal announcement if Bobkov or Jason Labarbera would get the start between the pipes.

Sharp 'out for a bit' with lower-body injury

Chicago Blackhawks forward Patrick Sharp is out indefinitely after sustaining a lower-body injury in Chicago's 5-0 win over the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday. Sharp left the game seven minutes into the third period after taking a seemingly innocuous hit from Montreal defenseman Alexei Emelin along the boards.

Sabres cashing Under tickets at a rapid rate

The Buffalo Sabres' offensive struggles have been well documented so far in the young NHL campaign, and as a result, bettors backing the Under in their games have been profiting.

The Under is 7-0-2 in the Sabres' last nine games through Tuesday. They play host to the Montreal Canadiens Wednesday.

The Habs are currently -205 faves on the moneyline.

**Udog** · 11-05-2014, 09:31 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Wednesday, November 5

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MONTREAL (8-4-0-1, 17 pts.) at BUFFALO (3-9-0-1, 7 pts.) - 11/5/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 244-195 ATS (+8.4 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
MONTREAL is 64-48 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 29-16 ATS (+10.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 11-4 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 80-63 ATS (+145.1 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
BUFFALO is 24-71 ATS (-76.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 6-3 (+0.9 Units) against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 6-3-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)

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DETROIT (6-3-0-3, 15 pts.) at NY RANGERS (5-4-0-2, 12 pts.) - 11/5/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 369-264 ATS (-106.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
DETROIT is 12-19 ATS (-14.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-2 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 11-16 ATS (-10.9 Units) in home games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 54-67 ATS (-49.3 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 5-11 ATS (-11.0 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 3-0 (+3.7 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 3-0-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.1 Units)

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NY ISLANDERS (6-5-0-0, 12 pts.) at ANAHEIM (10-3-0-0, 20 pts.) - 11/5/2014, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against the spread versus NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 2-0-0 straight up against NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.0 Units)

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Announcement

Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 11/5

Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 11/5

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