Top Political Prognosticators Predict GOP Unlikely To Take Over House In November

[BettorsChat]

Some of the country's top political forecasters reported Thursday that they disagree with the contention of some top Republicans that midterm elections in November will give the GOP majority control of the House.

Isaac Wood, House Race Editor of renowned political prognosticator Larry J. Sabato's "Crystal Ball" blog, wrote Thursday:

Unlike some analysts, we have never once predicted that Republicans would win enough new House seats to take control of the chamber. They may well do so in November due to the factors with which we're all familiar (a bad economy, sagging presidential popularity, public concern over spending and debt, and so on). But in our eyes, there has been and still is insufficient data to suggest an impending turnover.
Republicans will need to cook up an immense net gain of 39 House seats this November to retake control of the chamber. Though Wood acknowledges "substantial disadvantages" for Democrats, he sees such a gargantuan task as impractical even with Democrats defending five times as more competitive House seats than Republicans.

Wood summarizes their current projections:

At this point, the Crystal Ball believes Republicans would pick up 32 House seats if the midterm election were held today--an increase from our earlier estimate of 27. How do we arrive at the number 32? We have 13 Democratic-held seats clearly leaning to the Republican Party, with 22 more races as pure toss-ups that may well go GOP--minus the three Republican seats tilting to the Democrats.

Top Political Prognosticators Predict GOP Unlikely To Take Over House In November

[vitterd]

As the Presidents and dems popularity decline the republican approval ratings stay way low. They have not improved. The rep will gain seats and that happens anyway in mid terms when there is a one party sweep a few years earlier.

As a whole.. the popularity of congress is always very low however if u ask people about their own elected official the numbers are much higher. Some of those polls about Congress can be misleading because of that.

Fox news and the fringe will be pushing hard to "get the country back" as they say. Like they are the rightful owners. Just another empty republican buzz phrase to rally their fringe loons

[grandmama]

this congress has done more for our country than any congress in the past 30 years, yet a lot of people think they're not doing anything. Healhtcare and financial reform were huge for the middle class in this country, I don't think a lot of people realize the magnitude of the two bills mentioned above. I know the healthcare bill was not perfect, but lets not forget back when FDR got social security through their were people on the left that were pissed off because it only covered 40% of the seniors at the time, but as we know as time passed by all seniors were covered. Now I'm not going to get into the future of social security right now because the point I'm trying to make is that you have to pass the bill, and then over time you can go back and make changes to it, but you have to pass it first. I predict that in 10 years most people in this country will like the hcare bill. I know I hate dealing with my private insurance company, everytime something happens they try to get out of paying for my coverage, and most of the time, I have to pay for my stuff out of my own pocket- and I have plans with 3 different companies.