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  • We Hate Bush!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Bush backs $150 billion in tax-relief
    Economists estimate $500-$1,000 a person; aides say $800

    January 18, 2008
    FROM THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

    President Bush embraced as much as $150 billion in tax relief on Friday to jump start the lackluster economy. If Congress passes an economic stimulus package, the country will be ‘‘just fine,’’ he said.

    Bush said in a White House announcement that such a growth package must also include tax incentives for business investment and quick tax relief for individuals. To be effective, he said an economic stimulus package would need to roughly represent 1 percent of the gross domestic product — the value of all U.S. goods and services and the best measure of the country’s economic standing.
    » Click to enlarge image
    President Bush, accompanied by Vice President Dick Cheney, left, speaks on the economy Friday in the Roosevelt Room of the White House.

    (AP)

    RELATED STORIES
    Dow down 9% this year
    What would you do with $800?
    President Bush wants to reinvigorate the economy with a tax relief package worth up to $1.5 billion — reportedly with $1 billion going to individual taxpayers. The administration doesn't want to say how much each taxpayer would get, but congressional aides say Bush would give up to $800 to individuals who earn $85,000 a year or less and $1,600 to couples who earn $110,000 or less. Tell us what you would do with the extra dough. Write to us at [email protected]

    Economists said a reasonable range for tax cuts in the new package might be $500 to $1,000. Congressional aides said the White House plan is looking at rebates of up to $800 for individuals and $1,600 for married couples, but Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the administration wants to be ‘‘intentionally not specific’’ in public to avoid poisoning the well with Congress.

    Later, visiting a manufacturing plant in Frederick, Md., about 50 miles north of Washington, Bush said: ‘‘We need to get this deal done and get it out.’’

    ‘‘I believe we can come together on a growth package very quickly,’’ the president said. Earlier, he had said, ‘‘There is a risk of a downturn.’’

    Paulson said 1 percent of GDP would equate to $140 billion to $150 billion, which is along the lines of what private economists say should be sufficient to help give the economy a short-term boost.

    Paulson said the largest part of the stimulus package would be targeted to individual taxpayers. One Republican official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Bush was hoping to target about $100 billion toward individuals and about $50 billion toward businesses.

    ‘‘The cost of not acting has become too high,’’ Paulson said. ‘‘We must act now.’’

    While Bush focused solely on taxes, Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress have been working on a broader package that also would include a temporary increase in food stamps and an extension of and perhaps increase in unemployment benefits.

    The president and Congress are scrambling to take action as fears mount that a severe housing slump and painful credit crisis could cause people to close their wallets and businesses to put a lid on hiring, throwing the nation into its first recession since 2001.

    ‘‘Letting Americans keep more of their money should increase consumer spending,’’ Bush said.

    He outlined several criteria for the package to meet: It must be ‘‘big enough to make a difference in an economy as large and dynamic as ours,’’ it must be built on ‘‘broad-based tax relief,’’ it must take effect right away but be temporary, and it must not include any tax increases.

    Specifically, he called for tax incentives for businesses, including small companies, to make new and major investments this year. ‘‘Giving them an incentive to invest now will encourage business owners to expand their operations, create new jobs and inject new energy into our economy in the process,’’ Bush said.

    He also called for tax relief for individuals — probably to come in the form of one-time rebates. But he did not say what size checks Americans would get or the amount of other tax incentives that could be in the package. Nor did Bush detail how the nation would pay for such a plan.

    ‘‘Americans can spend this money as they see fit: to help meet their monthly bills, cover higher costs at the gas pump, pay for other basic necessities,’’ he said.

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has talked of a package totaling $100 billion or more. House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio spoke of a bill in the range of $100 billion to $150 billion. Aides have said Bush does not believe the stimulus spending should be offset — or paid for — by any tax or spending changes elsewhere. Some deficit hawks want this but it isn’t expected to be part of any package.

    Speaking for about seven minutes, Bush called passing a growth package ‘‘our most pressing economic priority.’’

    He acknowledged Americans’ fears, while defending the economy’s fundamental strength and its continued growth — albeit slower.

    ‘‘We’re in the midst of a challenging period,’’ Bush said. ‘‘And I know that Americans are concerned ... But our economy has seen challenging times before. It is resilient.’’

    Paulson said the markets are due for a needed correction, and that swift, temporary action by the government can help lessen the impact on individuals and the economy as a whole.

    Bush has gone down the tax rebate road before. Back in 2001, he added refunds of up to $300 per individual and $600 per household as a recession-fighting element of the tax cut plan that had been the centerpiece of his 2000 campaign.

    Bush first signaled his support for the approach of income tax rebates for people and tax breaks for business investment in a conference call Thursday with bipartisan congressional leaders.

    Democratic congressional leaders agree that tax relief should be in the package, but are working on a broader measure. Lawmakers are discussing a $500 rebate for individuals, said aides to lawmakers involved in the talks, with details for couples and people with children still being negotiated. The rebates would likely be limited to individuals with incomes of $85,000 or less and couples with incomes of $110,000 or less, the aides said, speaking on condition of anonymity because no final decisions had been made.

    Senior aides to House Democrats and Republicans said the measure also would contain tax breaks for businesses investing in new equipment, increases in food stamps, and higher unemployment benefits. They spoke on condition of anonymity, since the talks are ongoing and lawmakers have promised not to reveal details.

    Pelosi says she wanted legislation enacted within a month. ‘‘Democrats welcome President Bush’s willingness to work together with Congress to provide urgent relief to the millions of Americans facing economic hardships,’’ she said. ‘‘Now we will work together on the details.’’

    Paulson indicated that the White House approach would not include rebates or relief for those who do not pay income taxes. He also signaled Bush’s distaste for non-tax-related ideas, saying the White House goal is simplicity and speed. ‘‘We’re not looking to decorate a Christmas tree,’’ Paulson said.

    White House estimates show that a stimulus in the range of what Bush talked about could create 500,000 additional jobs this year, Paulson said.

    White House deputy press secretary Tony Fratto said Bush chose to lay out ‘‘principles’’ with few specifics to the American people now, while bipartisan negotiations with Capitol Hill continue privately. The White House feels Bush was out of the mix for too long, because he was away for eight days in the Mideast while Democratic leaders talked almost daily about the need to stimulate the economy — and how.

    So the White House scheduled two appearances by Bush on the economy Friday. At the lawn equipment manufacturer in Frederick, he toured assembly lines and briefly — and playfully — operated a standing lawnmower.

    ‘‘While there’s some uncertainty right now, if we act quickly and in a smart way, that helps growth. We’re gonna be just fine,’’ he said.

    Bush said he also wants all of his 2001 and 2003 tax cuts made permanent. But, with most of the Democrats who control Congress opposing that, the White House has said it regards that issue as separate from the stimulus effort.
    Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
    jordanrules..................

  • #2
    [QUOTE=jordanrules23]Bush backs $150 billion in tax-relief
    Economists estimate $500-$1,000 a person; aides say $800

    If Congress passes an economic stimulus package, the country will be ‘‘just fine,’’ he said.

    QUOTE]


    I'm glad "he said" the country will be just fine........and I'm glad you think so, too.....

    Comment


    • #3
      His little tax cut won't due shit for the economy.

      Comment


      • #4
        Thanks King George Just send my $800
        and GTFO!

        TOUCHDOWN FAT BOY!

        I was Born my Pappy's Son,
        When I hit the ground, I was on the Run!
        Jon E. Checkers

        Comment


        • #5
          This Bush S O B has sent this country back 10 good years. I cannot for the life of me see how he won or "stole" this last 04' election.
          Good,Honest Handicapping. Florida Tebow 24-Oklahoma Bradford 14, Jan 09'

          Comment


          • #6
            When Bush gave out the first tax cuts checks Sen. Tom Daschle said. When Most Americans get their check they will be able to buy a muffler for a Mercedes Bens. The top whatever percent would be able to buy the Mercedes Bens. I got $300.00, enough to buy the muffler. What I did with my money was paid bills, and that's just what I think a lot of people will do with $800.00.

            Bill Clinton took a lot of heat from the .com era. It was a quick fix for the economy but things were going well, it was just that the bottom fell out of it, and the same is going to be said about Bush with the housing crash.

            Here is my take. We are at war but the economy is doing pretty well, why? Could it be that every mortgage company was writing loans to just about everyone who was asking for one? Someone has a house they owe $80,000.00 on it. They want to do some home improvements on it, pay some bills, and so on. The next thing you know the lender wheels and deals some numbers and comes back and says instead of the $15,000.00 you wanted I can get you $30,000.00 and it will only be this much more. Well hell, now we can do what we want and more. Like buy a big screen HI Def T.V with all the trimmings. A new kitchen, and that vacation we always wanted to go on. Well what they didn't think about was that they signed on to an ARM instead of a fixed rate and when the rates went up so did the mortgage payment and now people can't pay the bills. George Bush's tax cut's haven't done SHIT for everyday people! This money will imo go towards bills because people already bought everything form the big $30,000.00 loan they got from the mortgage company.

            In other words, it wasn't the great economic mind of George Bush and his tax cuts that was making this economy good, it was the mortgage lenders that was fuleing the economy. Just like it wasn't Bill Clinton it was .com.

            George Bush throws another bone and you lap it up.

            Comment


            • #7
              The accompanying letter addresses the alarmingly sick condition of our national economy. In my opinion, the currently proposed "Growth Stimulus" to be structured by Congress to cure (or at least ease) our Country's economic ills will prove to be extremely anemic, regardless of how it is eventually structured.

              In recent days, the evidence of a new, very deep seeded and OVERWHELMINGLY DESTRUCTIVE EXISTING CONDITION has surfaced. This previously unheralded dimension relates to credit insurance firms which are used to INSURE the financial safety and security of commercial and governmental financial instruments which form the financial nucleolus of our country's commercial and governmental enterprises (other than U.S. backed securities); mostly all of these major credit insurance firms are now deemed to be insolvent. In simple terms, if called upon to pay up on insured securities which have gone into default (or "belly-up"), these credit insurance companies simply are defunct and don't have the money to pay up on claims. More succinctly, they are going BANKRUPT! The securities they insured will lose their credit ratings and may now, or in the future, be worth only pennies on the dollar.

              This critical area of weakness has not yet been addressed by the Government, as it should be. Government intervention will be required to avert a potential collapse of the economy. Government funding will be required and it is likely to require funding estimated at $150 to $250 Billion in addition to the currently estimated $150 Billion for the "Stimulus Package". In fact the stimulus package may not be needed if the government were to act quickly on funding the credit problem.

              If the crisis is not accommodated at the federal level, we can all look forward to higher taxes to us at the local and state levels due to the higher cost of state and municipal (non-insured and/or lower rated) existing and future debt. We would also see deterioration in state and municipally funded programs for education, health care, infrastructure, etc. In any event, we the taxpayers will pay for these debacles, most likely at the federal level.

              This phenomena, is a far greater underlying monetary threat to our economy than the definitely serious and severe sub-prime mess, of which you all are aware.

              Your attention is directed to the sections "Credit Default Swaps" & "The Economy Continues to Weaken".

              Credit Default Swaps: The Continuing Crisis

              As noted above, I said three weeks ago that the big story for 2008 would be the counter-party risk for credit default swaps. That story is coming faster and larger than I thought. Bill Gross of Pimco suggests that the ultimate cost could be another $250 billion dollars on top of the $250-plus billion in subprime losses. That means we have only seen the tip of the iceberg in write-offs in the financial sector.

              The real problem is the "monoline insurers" like ACA, Ambac, and MBIA. Here's a quick primer on how they work. Let's say you are a small municipality and want to borrow $10,000,000 for a bond offering to build a road or a water treatment plant. If you went to the market with your credit rating, it would be a low rating and the cost of the money would be high. But if you get one of the seven monoline insurers to guarantee your bond, then you get whatever their credit rating is. The fees for such insurance are lower than the savings you get on the bond, so everyone wins.

              But over the years, most of the monocline insurers went from boring municipal bonds and jumped into the mortgage-backed security markets, selling credit default swaps that significantly juiced up their earnings. But it also added a lot of risk that they clearly, in hindsight, did not understand.

              ACA has already seen its rating go from A to CCC, which is basically junk. This puts it out of business, as no one will pay to be rated as junk. ACA now has only $425 million in capital to cover the $69 billion in mortgage and corporate bonds they insure. Interestingly, they added $20 billion of that between April and September of last year. Talk about doubling down on a losing trade. Merrill wrote down almost $2 billion in bonds that were insured by ACA. They will not be alone.

              Today, Fitch downgraded Ambac Financial Group two notches from AAA to AA. That doesn't seem like a lot, until you realize that 74% of their revenue comes from that AAA rating that covers $556 billion in municipal and structured finance debt. Fitch did so because Ambac decided not to do an equity offering for $1 billion to stem the bleeding. Six months ago Ambac was at $96 or thereabouts. Today it is as $6.20. Its market cap is only $629 million, so a $1 billion offering would dilute current shareholders by around 70%. Ouch. And you can bet any offering they do now will be on terms that shareholders will not like, most likely a convertible offering that dilutes current shareholders even more.

              Oh, and that means that 137,990 municipalities that were insured by Ambac will see their credit ratings drop and their costs rise. Think their customers will hang around?

              Moody's says it is going to review MBIA. MBIA, which is rated AAA, raised $1 billion last week from Warburg Pincus and did another offering for surplus notes for $1 billion at 14%. As Michael Lewitt noted, that means 14% is the new price for AAA bonds. Except that today it is 23%. If you bought that note, you are not looking good right now. They are trading at 70 cents on the dollar. Of course, that is better than Ambac's 30-year bonds, which are trading at 35 cents on the dollar.

              When Warren Buffett bought Gen Re, the large re-insurer, five years ago, he presciently made the decision to reduce their exposure to credit default swaps. It took them four years to reduce the number of contracts from 23,218 to just 197 at the end of 2006.

              "We lost over $400 million on contracts that were supposedly 'safe and properly priced' and we did it in a leisurely way in a benign market," says Mr. Buffett. "If we had to unwind it today in one month, who knows what would have happened?" (The Wall Street Journal)

              If you are a bank or regulated entity, and you have mortgage-backed securities that have been written by a AAA monocline company, you can carry that debt on your books as AAA. But as the companies get downgraded, you have to write down the potential loss. Quoting from a recent note from Michael Lewitt:

              "MBIA's total exposure to bonds backed by mortgages and CDOs was disclosed to be $30.6 billion, including $8.14 billion of holdings of CDO-squareds (CDOs that own other CDOs, or mortgages piled on top of mortgages, or, to quote Jeff Goldblum's character in Jurassic Park again, 'a big pile of s&*^'). MBIA was being priced as a weak CCC-rated credit when it issued its bonds last week; it is now being priced for a bankruptcy. MBIA's stock, which traded just under $68 per share last October, dropped another $3.50 this morning to under $10.00 per share.

              "The bond insurers' business model is irreparably broken. In HCM's view, it will be all but impossible for these companies to raise capital at economic levels for the foreseeable future and certainly in enough time to work out of their current difficulties. The performance of MBIA's 14 percent bond issue will prove to have been the death knell for this business. The market needs to come to the realization that the so-called insurance that these companies were offering is not going to be there if it is needed. The fact that these companies were rated AAA in the first place will remain one of the great puzzles of modern finance for years to come."

              You can bet that the $8 billion in CDO-squareds is gone. It is a matter of time. MBIA's market cap is about $1 billion. Current shareholders will be lucky if they only get diluted 75%.

              Watch Warren Buffett swoop in and take that boring old municipal bond insurance business. Watch a few large hedge funds buy the remains of the monoline carriers to get their staff and experience (especially the municipal sales teams), and launch new companies with pristine credit.

              If you have Ambac or MBIA insurance, as a bank you have not yet written down any debt they insured. They are still rated AAA. But that re-rating is coming. And what about the monster CDS business in the hedge fund world? Who wins and loses? There will be huge winners, and there will be total wipe-outs. There are going to be more losses in the biggest banks, and even bigger investments by Sovereign Wealth Funds. Count on it. This is a story we will return to time and time again.

              The Economy Continues to Weaken

              Briefly, the data is suggesting continued weakness. Even the perma-bullish Art Laffer last night threw in the towel and said on Larry Kudlow's show that we are in the beginning of a recession.

              The Philadelphia Fed's Business Survey is suggesting that activity is down to levels not seen since the last recession in 2001. Twice as many firms reported a decrease in business as reported an increase. Employment was down for the first time in years, and new orders were negative. Oh, and 49% of firms said prices paid were up. Last August only 16% said that. Only 2% said they were paying lower prices for input materials. The following chart from Greg Weldon's latest piece says it all:



              The market has been dropping not just in the US but all over the world. Gentle reader, this is what the beginning of a bear market looks like. This is a chart of the last ten years of the S&P 500. Notice that when the bear market started in the fall of 2000, there were numerous periods where there were 10-15% gains which eventually faded away.



              I keep hearing that traders want to see capitulation. Unless we are in a brave new world, you don't see capitulation in one month. This is a longer process, and it will work out in ways that confound us all. Future earnings are going to be under stress as the economy slows. We will get a series of earnings warnings at the end of this quarter, which will further weaken the market. Rebounds are to be sold in this environment.

              And I can't resist. The following pictures of Ben Bernanke are from his recent Congressional testimony, courtesy of Bill King. This is a man who is not happy.





              I guess it was a rough day at the office.

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