Fade Us - We Suck

[Spearit]

Seeing the other thread on this issue sounded good.
If you are like killing your bankroll with bad plays- this is your time to shine- do not let anyone elses plays here help you- it must be your own plays and perception that you would normally want to play.
Before the games begin, we tally up (anyone can do this) or just allow others to see just how pathetic we can be. Please put no more than two plays. Make them the plays you would play! Bad Luck to ya ( or if ya did play it- good luck to ya). Personally- I am still up for the month but lately can't hit over 50% and mostly well under in the last five days. Shorty we need ya. Hoops - Play along. If you suck on play action we need ya. We want to turn this :angryfire into this

[Ripple]

i been on a awesome run the last 2 weeks with my own plays..needed them last week with the fades..i went 8-3 last night and havent lost in a few days..good job spearit..i also been fading the most over rated nba capper out there jb sports..he lost his last 6..been banging the nets lately..that win in ot against denver is going to start a huge roll for them and change there season around..also play against the knicks

[Spearit]

Thanx Rip- You got mail. Fade these plays remember.
Is the play the Knicks- which means Utah is good?
OK 1st play up is NY Knicks- Fade Me

My pick tonight is on CFB Kansas Jayhawks -3- Fade Me

[Ripple]

yes fade the knicks,,even if they win tonight play against them and you will win..isiah and larry cant fiqure this out..thanks buddy..awesome column today by our buddy mr g in the daily news..

[Spearit]

The fades have been gathering strength as they did this time of year last year. Mr. G is welcome to post anytime here as well. Thank you Rip for your contribution.

[littlewager]

My first "normal" wager of the day. I'll edit this reply to add my additional plays. My normal play's average 40% but that would be boasting having an 0 - 2 record as of this post.

Houston U 23-December-2005 11:00 AM PST Spread -3.5 for 1st Half -108




Best of luck
Littlewager

[Ripple]

thanks spearit..nothing's a lock but i cant wait for the fades in 2 weeks when conference play starts..thats when the services really start to sux..

[Spearit]

Thanx LittleWager and Rip
Many of you have high hopes once more of breaking out of your rut. You won't jinx yourself by posting- The game will be decided on the field and your posting or not posting will not deter the end result. Remember - most of these plays will be public peception and services are no different really.

Now- Since we have some time to build this thread- I thought a little awareness of capping may be helpful. I really have little time but I help people everyday that are in pain- why not here. I don't presume I know alot about this but I am willing to share and learn from you as well.

You take these games- Favorites- Smart money is already showing up on the other side. Away Dogs under 30 % have hit at a higher than 50 % on CBB- Why- very few bet on away dogs- Vegas knows this and ups the favorite beyond the expected score- and then let the public steam roll it higher. Theory -yes- Makes Sense- Yes.
I am not betting for the time being--but I am watching right now- please no Good Lucks in this thread. It is about what we perceive as hunker down on bets and whether they hit or not.

Indiana 70% vs Butler - Line has dropped from 7 to 6 (except Pinnacle)
Notre Dame 78% Line dropped from 20 to 19
Kentucky 68% Line has dropped from 11 to 9.5
Massachusettes 72% Line has dropped from 12 to 11
by the way Fresno St is 86%- Line has not dropped- so we are not looking at this game

System # 1
The public is on the favorites -yet the line drops. Interesting- public perception vs opposing line moves. This is a key in my UTEP Under 63 Win the other night. Stats showed if you move UTEP in such a manner- it hits at only 26%. Many games have around a 50% angle if moved but sometimes you can find gems such as this one.
OK - So lets see if we gain and edge in these games mentioned. I believe -We need over 57 % to consider a play on on it. The more the better is my thinking.

1) Indiana/Butler- Line moves toward Butler
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in BUTLER games 46.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (20-23)

This calculates to no real edge in this game.

2) Notre Dame/Columbia
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in COLUMBIA games 58.6% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (17-12)

This calculates as a play. Edge against the spread Columbia. The public does not think much of little Columbia going against mighty Notre Dame

Additional Info: Play Against - Favorites of 20 or more points (NOTRE DAME) - poor pressure defensive team - forcing <=14 turnovers/game.
(54-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (72%, +30.9 units. Rating = 3*)
Play On - Underdogs of 20 or more points (COLUMBIA) - after 2 consecutive non-conference games against opponent after 3 consecutive non-conference games.
(122-69 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.9%, +46.1 units. Rating = 2*)
Play On - Road underdogs of 20 or more points (COLUMBIA) - after 2 consecutive non-conference games against opponent after 3 consecutive non-conference games.
(119-67 over the last 5 seasons.) (64%, +45.3 units. Rating = 2*)

3) Kentucky/ Iona
Shows only a 50 % win ratio on Iona moving
However, Over the last 3 seasons, the road underdog has covered the spread 9 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 2 times.
Edge against the spread=IONA
Additional Info:
IONA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IONA 73.9, OPPONENT 71.4 - (Rating = 2*)

4) UMass/ Sienna
Oh I can see some jumping on Sienna tonight. Lets see
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SIENA games 42.9% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (9-12)
Edge against the spread =UMass
Other systems show the following:

Trends favoring Sienna to cover the spread
MASSACHUSETTS is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) as a home favorite of 10 or more points since 1997.
The average score was MASSACHUSETTS 73.5, OPPONENT 61.6 - (Rating = 1*)

Trends favoring MASSACHUSETTS to cover the spread
There are 2 trends with a total rating of 7 stars.
SIENA is 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) after 2 straight games making 78% of their free throws or better since 1997.
The average score was SIENA 81.3, OPPONENT 78.1 - (Rating = 4*)
SIENA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after a game where they made 88% of their free throws or better since 1997.
The average score was SIENA 76.4, OPPONENT 76.2 - (Rating = 3*)
Yes - but this gets into other systems that I will build on in the thread. It takes in alot of years but - I hesitate and ask - what do they do now- that takes more research- but it needs answering before you can be confident in a play- stones left unturned become zeros in your bank account.

Recap-Edge against the spread (System 1 Plays with back up)
Iona, Columbia, and UMass. . Good Luck - Not Fades- We are Fading Kentucky, Notre Dame and Sienna

[Spearit]

I see - this little thread needs nurturing. I believe the New System is solid. However, it is on trial right now. With Rip and Krunch and Blackbeard and a few others - may our understanding of playing a side or total be enhanced.Anymore contributions?

So Far we have noted the following fades:
NBA
NY Knicks- Service fade
CFB
Kansas- My pick
Houston/ Kansas Under 23 1st Half- lilwagers selection
CBB
Sienna- Fade on the line moving in favor of Sienna (System 1)
Kentucky- Pubic % Fade (System 1)
Notre Dame- Public % Fade (Sytem 1)

[littlewager]

Well first "normal" rated play winner / and ofcource loser if you faded. Moving on to next "normal" rated play.

Houston U 23-December-2005 11:00 AM PST Spread -3.5 for 1st Half -108 -Houston 43 NORTH TEXAS 36- Winner/fade losser


Loyola Marymount 23-December-2005 1:00 PM PST Spread -1 for 1st Half -108 -pending-

Best of luck
LW

[Blackbeard]

good info spearit, I wish I could have given you my awful MLB playoff picks to fade, one thing I have noticed in the nba is to fade my first instinct, because those lines are there to lure you in, maybe this helps. My system did exceptionally well in CFB, but only hit around 50% in NFL, I pretty much gave up after that. good luck and happy holidays

[Spearit]

Thanx Blackbeard- Not easy to fade really- We want to believe in someone or our own picks mainly. This is just a system

[Spark]

Nice info Spear .. You hang tough buddy

[Spearit]

What a Title- Fade Us - We Suck------ My experiment was to produce plays from losers over the last few days and guess what. We go 5-1 winners. Fading us would go 1-5. Strange but OK

I will tweak my system and add the RPI difference to the other 2 systems.RPI- System #3 - Them I will hopefully have more to work from to cap the games. I.. will have records on the teams as the money line goes and the situational trends that are most meaningful coupked with the RPI. Toss in news backhome- Injuries-Weather - Hope I find the time.
Ah Spearit-This is your hobbie not your purpose in life.

Tonight Kentucky and Notre Dame were pressed into close games with Iona and Columbia as I mentioned. But Sienna missed the mark of 11 and was at 9 against UMass. So I may take into account ----(UMass) Favorites may be at a lower play or no play in opposition to taking dogs. Night all

[Ripple]

spearit..we have a fade the mighty quinn thread at another site,,we should start one here..when i get back ill update it everyday..hes free and in the paper so monte and spark should let us..if its in the paper hes not considered a pay service...

all his plays are in the ny daily news every day...
we faded him last night with houston and we won..

tonight he has seattle & c fla..thanks spearit see ya later bud..