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NFL: Contrarian Views (Week 14)
December 11, 2005
by James Patrick
2005 RECORD: (21-19) +200/ +.2units
Last Week's Recap: (0-3)
Pittsburgh -3 (loser) -1100
Detroit +120 (loser) -1000
Oakland +11 (loser) -1100
Week 1: (3-1) +$1800
Week 2: (2-1) +900
Week 3: (2-1) +900
Week 4: (3-0) +3000
Week 5: (2-1) +900
Week 6: (0-3) -3200
Week 7: (2-1) +900
Week 8: (3-0) +3000
Week 9: (0-3) -3300
Week 10: (2-1) +900
Week 11: (2-1) +900
Week 12: (0-3)-3300
Week 13: (0-3)-3200
After going 0-6 over the last few weeks, I am certain there are not too many interested in my plays or thoughts for this week, and rightly so. This year has been a complete abomination in regards to anything contrarian. As a result, I decided to instead include something readers should enjoy.
In this week's column I interviewed a local bookmaker who has been running a highly successful, high volume credit shop in the mid-west. I've known this guy for 6 years, and he's been in the business for over 15 years. I hope you enjoy his thoughts.
From a bookmaker's perspective, how would you rate this year of football on a 1-10 scale in comparison to previous years (10 being the best)?
I would have to say a 3 or a 4.
So you've had worse?
I've been here for 15 years, and I can think of at least one year that was worse. It was the year the Vikings went like 13-3 against the spread, and we got smoked because of our location. Other than that, I guess I can't remember any year that was this bad.
Looking forward to this week, what do you see happening in Week 14?
I think it's gonna be a good week. But I think every week is gonna be a good week. I can see the lines are finally adjusted, but I'm also a little worried that its so obvious that everyone's gonna bet the dogs.
A lot of people are confused when they hear people say that the books are getting crushed because the favorites are covering ATS. Would you say that is a true statement? That a book loses as a simple function of the number of favorites covering?
That's kind of a tough question. I don't think I would say it's that simple. I would say the main source of our losses this year have been teasers. Both sides have come in on too many games, and the favorite side seems like it never loses.
How have Monday nights been?
Horrible. Way too many easy bail-out games. The last two years have been terrible from our perspective, both on Sunday night and Monday night. Both sides of the teasers are hitting a lot. The games seem to always go over as well.
What % of your action is favorite action?
Off the top of my head, I would guess that it's close to 70%. A book should love that, but not this year though.
Do you feel are smarter guys are up?
No. It's the dipshits that are killing us. The guys that are usually stuck this time of year are up on the year.
Why do you think the favorites are covering?
I wouldn't say I'm an expert, but I guess its probably because of a lack of parity.
A lot of people argue that the books have nothing to whine about, since they could easily just shade their own lines upward and balance the action. Do you feel as though you have that kind of freedom with your lines?
I've seen to many books adjust to what they think they're gonna get and it never works. This year is maybe the only year where that would have worked. We are completely constricted by the offshore lines and anyone that reads the USA Today knows what the line is.
Do you still trust the linemakers after this year?
Yes.
What's the good news for the book this year?
Well, there is still some year left. Also, we've picked up a substantial number of players because of winners bragging to their friends. They are also betting a bunch more because they are winning. So our volume is way up, which has also killed us this year. They're betting more games because its easier. They get a little loose after hitting a big or teaser and come after us a bit, but this year that has cost us even more, whereas usually that's how we get it back.
What percentage of your players play offshore?
Maybe 5-10%.
Do you think you lose any business to offshore?
No. Because we offer something they don't, credit.
You hold your lines for guys that bet under a nickel per game. How have the steam chasers been doing this year?
The guys following the line movers are losing this year. Following the moves isn't so great this year. The wiseguys are what is helping us get through the year.
What percentage of players are long term winners?
Between 5 and 10%
What is single most important reason in your mind that causes them to be winners?
Patience and discipline, they don't chase...never see a parlay or a teaser out of a disciplined player.
Part 2 coming next week...
This week I'm simply going to include my three top plays for the week and withhold the tired worn out analysis. I'm not changing anything, my approach remains the same.
I would love to hear some feedback on the ideas contained in this column and will be reading the forums at www.***.comfor that feedback.
TOP PLAY: Tampa Bay +6 $1000 (1 unit)
TOP PLAY: Miami +13 ½ for $1000 (1unit)
TOP PLAY: San Francisco +16 ½ for $1000 (1 unit)
Disclaimer: Previous week's results do NOT reflect future performance
December 11, 2005
by James Patrick
2005 RECORD: (21-19) +200/ +.2units
Last Week's Recap: (0-3)
Pittsburgh -3 (loser) -1100
Detroit +120 (loser) -1000
Oakland +11 (loser) -1100
Week 1: (3-1) +$1800
Week 2: (2-1) +900
Week 3: (2-1) +900
Week 4: (3-0) +3000
Week 5: (2-1) +900
Week 6: (0-3) -3200
Week 7: (2-1) +900
Week 8: (3-0) +3000
Week 9: (0-3) -3300
Week 10: (2-1) +900
Week 11: (2-1) +900
Week 12: (0-3)-3300
Week 13: (0-3)-3200
After going 0-6 over the last few weeks, I am certain there are not too many interested in my plays or thoughts for this week, and rightly so. This year has been a complete abomination in regards to anything contrarian. As a result, I decided to instead include something readers should enjoy.
In this week's column I interviewed a local bookmaker who has been running a highly successful, high volume credit shop in the mid-west. I've known this guy for 6 years, and he's been in the business for over 15 years. I hope you enjoy his thoughts.
From a bookmaker's perspective, how would you rate this year of football on a 1-10 scale in comparison to previous years (10 being the best)?
I would have to say a 3 or a 4.
So you've had worse?
I've been here for 15 years, and I can think of at least one year that was worse. It was the year the Vikings went like 13-3 against the spread, and we got smoked because of our location. Other than that, I guess I can't remember any year that was this bad.
Looking forward to this week, what do you see happening in Week 14?
I think it's gonna be a good week. But I think every week is gonna be a good week. I can see the lines are finally adjusted, but I'm also a little worried that its so obvious that everyone's gonna bet the dogs.
A lot of people are confused when they hear people say that the books are getting crushed because the favorites are covering ATS. Would you say that is a true statement? That a book loses as a simple function of the number of favorites covering?
That's kind of a tough question. I don't think I would say it's that simple. I would say the main source of our losses this year have been teasers. Both sides have come in on too many games, and the favorite side seems like it never loses.
How have Monday nights been?
Horrible. Way too many easy bail-out games. The last two years have been terrible from our perspective, both on Sunday night and Monday night. Both sides of the teasers are hitting a lot. The games seem to always go over as well.
What % of your action is favorite action?
Off the top of my head, I would guess that it's close to 70%. A book should love that, but not this year though.
Do you feel are smarter guys are up?
No. It's the dipshits that are killing us. The guys that are usually stuck this time of year are up on the year.
Why do you think the favorites are covering?
I wouldn't say I'm an expert, but I guess its probably because of a lack of parity.
A lot of people argue that the books have nothing to whine about, since they could easily just shade their own lines upward and balance the action. Do you feel as though you have that kind of freedom with your lines?
I've seen to many books adjust to what they think they're gonna get and it never works. This year is maybe the only year where that would have worked. We are completely constricted by the offshore lines and anyone that reads the USA Today knows what the line is.
Do you still trust the linemakers after this year?
Yes.
What's the good news for the book this year?
Well, there is still some year left. Also, we've picked up a substantial number of players because of winners bragging to their friends. They are also betting a bunch more because they are winning. So our volume is way up, which has also killed us this year. They're betting more games because its easier. They get a little loose after hitting a big or teaser and come after us a bit, but this year that has cost us even more, whereas usually that's how we get it back.
What percentage of your players play offshore?
Maybe 5-10%.
Do you think you lose any business to offshore?
No. Because we offer something they don't, credit.
You hold your lines for guys that bet under a nickel per game. How have the steam chasers been doing this year?
The guys following the line movers are losing this year. Following the moves isn't so great this year. The wiseguys are what is helping us get through the year.
What percentage of players are long term winners?
Between 5 and 10%
What is single most important reason in your mind that causes them to be winners?
Patience and discipline, they don't chase...never see a parlay or a teaser out of a disciplined player.
Part 2 coming next week...
This week I'm simply going to include my three top plays for the week and withhold the tired worn out analysis. I'm not changing anything, my approach remains the same.
I would love to hear some feedback on the ideas contained in this column and will be reading the forums at www.***.comfor that feedback.
TOP PLAY: Tampa Bay +6 $1000 (1 unit)
TOP PLAY: Miami +13 ½ for $1000 (1unit)
TOP PLAY: San Francisco +16 ½ for $1000 (1 unit)
Disclaimer: Previous week's results do NOT reflect future performance
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