Fading Hot, Playing Cold

[Hoosier Daddy]

When you look at these services, most of them hit between 45-52% of their games. The law of averages say that these hot services are going to digress back to the pack and finish in their normal range, and the ones doing shitty (with a decent track record in that 45-52% range) are going to win some games to get back to where they normally are. Going off of that logic, here are some services to fade for tonight, and some ones you may want to look at following. Good luck, all!!!


TO FADE
BIG A_L - 7-0 ('05 MNF).......40% (last 5 Yr. MNF)

CAPTAIN - 8-0 ('05 MNF).......40% (5 Yr MNF)

COK-IN - 8-2 ('05 MNF).......55% (5 Yr. MNF)

HEAD QUARTERS - 2-0 ('05 MNF).......39% (5 Yr. MNF)

LV_SS - 6-1 ('05 MNF).......55% (5 Yr. MNF)

PRIVATE PLAYERS - 12-2 ('05 MNF).......53% (5 Yr. MNF)

WILDCAT - 3-0 ('05 MNF).......49% (5 Yr. MNF)



TO TAKE
ATS - 2-8 ('05 MNF).......49% (5 Yr. MNF)

BEST BETS - 2-6 ('05 MNF).......47% (5 Yr. MNF)

COW TOWN - 0-5 ('05 MNF).......49% (5 Yr. MNF)

FE_IST 2-4 ('05 MNF).......56% (5 Yr. MNF)

JB SPORTS - 0-4 ('05 MNF).......54% (5 Yr. MNF)

PLAYERS GROUP - 2-7 ('05 MNF).......44% (5 Yr. MNF)

POW_ER PL_AYS - 1-4 ('05 MNF).......50% (5 Yr. MNF)

TOTAL EDGE - 0-2 ('05 MNF).......50% (5 Yr. MNF)

[trumadskills]

id say jus take a consensus take on all tha shitty services in each sport big numbers take em, basically what rip does. heres some numbers from trackpicks

NFL fade units lost/%/W/L

Tony C Sports -40.20 42.50% 17 23
MFSPicks.com -41.00 42.25% 30 41
The Ultimate Sports Betting Discovery -43.20 38.71% 12 19
BANKROLLER -46.90 25.00% 5 15
James Kruger -49.00 40.43% 19 28
Capital Plays -53.00 44.62% 29 36
MeatAndPotatoes.Com, Inc. -53.50 44.93% 31 38
RightSidePicks.com -54.50 40.43% 19 28
Vegas Sports Pros -55.50 44.93% 31 38
RockSolidPicks -58.50 40.00% 18 27
GeauxPicks -62.50 43.37% 36 47
SelectionsOnline.com -65.90 42.11% 24 33
Texas Sports Zone -67.60 44.16% 34 43
Free Picks And Analysis -70.90 37.21% 16 27
WhysGuys.com -75.40 36.67% 22 38
SportsGuru -78.50 34.15% 14 27
WinningAngle.com -87.70 41.89% 31 43

[trumadskills]

ncaaf fades units lost/%/W/L

KeyplayerSports.com -43.70 42.86% 15 20
SHARP PLAYS -43.75 31.58% 6 13
TrackPicks Consensus -48.87 36.36% 8 14
ccsportspicks -51.00 38.89% 14 22
9roN -52.20 39.53% 17 26
Sports Handicapping Guide -52.80 39.53% 17 26
MyPickofTheWeek -56.75 43.56% 44 57
Best Darn Cappers -59.10 44.59% 33 41
Vegas Sports Pros -60.50 35.29% 12 22
BartendersPicks.com -62.50 42.62% 26 35
CI Sports -67.00 44.71% 38 47
Corey Bachmeier.com -69.50 38.78% 19 30
**********.com - Chad Wilson -83.40 37.10% 23 39
VIPHandicapping.net -84.40 34.92% 22 41
Schaefer Sports -84.75 41.30% 38 54
BEST FOOTBALL ****** -137.05 35.85% 19 34
www.Thesportsfirm.com -141.00 36.71% 29 50
TheWinningAdvantage -142.40 36.36% 8 14
Vegas Sports Experts -161.20 44.78% 60 74

[moondog22]

post no services please

[trumadskills]

moondog i thought mods didnt want anyone to post service plays, ive seen rip an others post service names all im doin is postin tha shitty service records.

[Hoosier Daddy]

id say jus take a consensus take on all tha shitty services in each sport big numbers take em, basically what rip does. heres some numbers from trackpicks

I understand your point, and that's one approach, but I'm talking about something slightly different. For example, look at Bankroller. Now I'm not familiar with them, but let's say hypothetically that over the last 5 years, they hit 50% of their plays, and have been right around that mark every year. Well, with them already 10 games under .500, chances are that they will regress back to that .500 mark and from here on out, be somewhere about 10 games above .500.

Conversely, you have a service that is off to a great start this year and is 25-10. This service has routinely been at .500 the past 5 years. Most likely, they will digress back to .500 and thus be around 15 games under .500 the rest of the year. Those are the ones to fade.

Granted, there will be rare instances where a service that has been repeatedly in that 47-53% range, will have a great year and finish at 60% or awful year and finish at 35%, but it's more likely that they will either rise up to the pack or come back to the pack depending on where they currently are.

Big A_L and Captain are off to amazing starts in MNF, but they aren't going to win every week, so now is a good time to start fading them. Just like ATS, JB, and others who have been consistently around 50%, will start winning more games than they lose and get back to that .500 mark.

[Kaptain]

Patetic---when you figure people pay good hard earned $ for those picks............kapt