Rips Sunday Fades

[Ripple]

updated record,,coming off just a miserable weekend

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updated record as we jusy suxed yesterday big time & this weekend..

college record...23 ~ 24.. 40%

week # 5 - 3 ~ 7...(last week)..30%
week # 4 ...5 ~ 6 ...45 %...
week # 3 ... 2 ~ 1 ..66%
week.#2 ...5 ~ 6 ...45 %
week #1... 8 ~ 4...66%
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NFL...13 ~ 13 ...50%

WEEK # 4 .. 3 ~ 4 ..last week ..42%
week # 3 ...4 ~ 2 ,,,66%...
WEEK # 2 ...2 ~ 3 ...40%
WEEK #1 ... 4 ~ 4 ...50%
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COMBINED RECORD...36 ~ 37...40%

[Ripple]

if we have another week or 2 like we just had,,i'll take a few weeks off and than regroup and come back...this week ill definetly do it and maybe next week than we'll look at how were doing and take it from there..Rip

[Ripple]

5pm update
18 pack..(of miller geniune draft cans haha )
27 carolinia
9 over
10 under

[Ripple]

710pm update
42 pack
48 carl
19 over
20 under

most likey a pass ..will update no later than 730pm

[Ripple]

no fades tonight its all even...52 pack
53 car
19 over 21 under

i posted a gom that i love earlier today its the panthers ..my personal record is lot better than my fades im 9-3 in the nfl
i posted the panthers at -7////play what you want ..no fades tonight good luck,,

[4breakout]

if we have another week or 2 like we just had,,i'll take a few weeks off and than regroup and come back...this week ill definetly do it and maybe next week than we'll look at how were doing and take it from there..Rip

not so fast my friend....the public usually wins the first couple of weeks, then gets thrashed as they up their bets... Hang in there, the fades will be gold shortly!

[Ripple]

thanks 4breakout...i just been seeing alot of close people and guys on here just get hammered and might be done forawhile,,i know last year we did it the last 9 weeks and won 7 out of the nine,,thanks for the kind words..


good luck guys..lets go panthers,,
see you all tomorrow,,ill have baseball and football fades,,

[mgdog96]

I agree with 4breakout. Fades will heat up.

[Mosi]

not so fast my friend....the public usually wins the first couple of weeks, then gets thrashed as they up their bets... Hang in there, the fades will be gold shortly!

Huge supporter here of Rip and all of his hard work. Always take into consideration his plays and will follow blindly if I do not have enough of my own time to research.

I do want to comment on the above quote. There can be a vast difference between what the"public" is playing and what the services put out as plays. The services putting out plays influence only a small percentage of the public. I have seen the fades directly conflict with what the public is playing many times this season.

I will give an example of both. Saturday the public loved Alabama and so did the services (believe it was a 29-1 if remember). I lost a good chunk of cash. Sunday, the public was on Seattle for the most part and the services were on Washington, giving us Seattle as the fade play and on the same side as the public. I passed in a game which could have gone either way when it was over. Actually Seattle should have won.

There are better examples of the services putting us on the same side as the public by playing against them, but I do not have them off hand.

Rip, your hard work is appreciated and do believe the fades will heat up. If they did not, services would have tons of business and break the books. I like Carolina too.

[karamazov]

Rip I think the fades are a great idea. I don't post much, but I read your posts all the time. I agree, the later into the season we get the better the fades will get. Keep up the good work and it will work out.

[stoney]

For what it is worth, I think there has to be some type of modification or variables added to the formula of the actual fade play. I think, in my opinion, that just tallying up plays and going against the majority is fine, but being an econ major I think there needs to be a little bit more analytical emphasis put into this formula.

For example what mosi was saying. The public was on alabama, the services were all piled up on alabama. I think this should throw up a red flag. Yes, you would think we should be licking our chops but so far this season I have seen this scenario come up several times( ALL the services on one side and that same side is pounded by the public, and the fade is for the other side and we lose).

There has to be a way to throw more variables into the fade equation to get a stronger and more reliable play. Even if its only 1 or 2 plays on saturday and sunday. For example, throw out Nationally televised or very highly touted or rivalry games. Just for example I don't feel comfortable playing Monday night games. That is just me, there is one game to choose and you have 100 services picking the sides there is just way too much input on one game. Unless it was 70%-30% or 80-20 I would go the other way but I would still be leery. Point two, I like the idea of going against the betting public, but using internet sites to get that info is total bullshit. There are sites that give away prizes for for picking games etc with the point spread. Here is an example I tallied up all the bets over the weekend and here were the majority teams that were bet(and when I mean majority I mean like 30-5 in that neighborhood).
Saturday: eastern Michigan, Lsu, bowling green, texas tech. You go against the so called public here and you go 1-3. On sunday: san diego, indy, tampa, new orleans, nyg. Same deal you go against the public you go 1-4. This obviously doesnt work becasue alot of the people on the internet want to be contrarians, plain and simple, so the numbers that are being produced are not legit numbers. When people put down their hard earned money with their locals, those are the real numbers we need. We need a thread with an honest tally from people who can get their locals to divulge who they need to win or who everyone is betting with them. And then we could further break-down the fades against this criteria. I am sure people here don't want to be going against the books if they don't have to. We want to be on their sides the majority of the time. I know this sounds like a pain in the ass, but if we work together as a team we can win. I can slowly see the moral growing dim. there is only so much of a positive spin you can put on losing. I know that I had said some negative things in the past about the fades, but that was pure negative pissed off emotion of losing my ass talking. Let's get this thing back on track and make Rips hard work pay off for all of us.

Ps I know there will be naysayers about what I have posted. If so fine. But lets hear some more ideas if anyone has them. The more the better.

[Ripple]

you cant throw out the tv games..every market has different games...some markets had the usc game on abc some had the fla st game..if you throw out the bama game because the numbers were so high than we throw out the eagles games for that reason and the eagles won for us.if seattle hits the fg we win but the word if is a big word,,..i think the fades are one game under 500..so to me im not going to change a thing..we never picked andchosed before ..why start now..yes we had a (1) bad month..but to me just my opinion,im going to keep going for at least another 2 weeks and keep dooing what i been doing since last nov....we started the fades the last 9 weeks of football last year.so this is the first time were doing it in the early part of the season..I just want to keep things the same to see what happens the next 2 weeks..

believe me ill take any suggestions,or any thoughts and i do appreciate it.the numbers are there big time..not to sure how we can cut the games down..i actually been cutting the games down ..ive gotten alot of emails from services telling me they never seen this before and to stay strong because as a service they even no they the majority lose in the long run..

stoney thanks buddy..ill keep in mind ur post and rethink things over..

most nights we come up with a play no matter what..even if the tally is close like last night but since we been terrible i didnt want to force a play like we passed 2 nights last week,,

stoney ur post definely have some great and valid points thanks for posting buddy..

[Ripple]

also a few points..
please if anyone wants to try another fade system please do and post in this thread,,we can have 2 fade threads or 3 & 4.

also Trucking and i been chatting alot again the last few weeks,,he tried a different system..he made a list of the 60-80 cappers that are good and popular and just did there plays and faded them ..He told me yesterday that system was doing worse than our fades..and just been getting killed...

also stoney were not here to bash you or anyone,,Those bashing days are over..please keep posting ur posts and ur suggestions..

as bad as we been were only 1 game under 500..plus the vig from the losers..

[MB17]

Personally, I odn't think we should change a thing right now. I know FOR A FACT tha my bookie has taken it on the chin a couple of different weeks because I asked him. That right there tells me that we are on the "right" side, but that we jsut aren't winning yet. Stuff like this happens. My bookie has been booking for years, so i have the utmost confidence that he's ding so because he's been winning over the years, and not losing.

Like I said earlier, I think that we just need to weather the storm and maybe not play as many dollars per unit until this thing turns in our favor.

[Shiprec]

Rip, what's up. I will fly, float, or sink with the fades my friend!! keep up all the hard work. Everyone will be all over St.L today. Wouldn't SD be the fade(if there are any today?)?
PEACE