Fade Public Opinion Plays

[Spearit]

These are not to be considered "Fades By Rip" and it doesn't take me anywhere the time Rip puts in his system.

How can simply "Betting Against the Public" produce a profitable result?

The answer is based on psychology. The public loves to bet "favorites" and “overs.”
It's human nature to root for winners and scoring.

The media, which over-hypes winning teams that score a lot of points, further inflates this human tendency. Sportsbooks understand this and shade their lines accordingly. Sportsbooks do not look to balance their books. They look to exploit sports bettors' tendencies by shading favorites and overs.

With the difference in long-term winning and losing measured continually getting an extra 0.5 to 1.0 point every time you bet an underdog or under, will increase your win percentage by up to 3%. For every additional point your percentage increases. Say 2 points - up to 6 % more winners, etc. This is a measurable fact!

[Spearit]

Look for Value

The key to successful sports betting is obtaining value on every bet. Value essentiallycomes down to getting better than the "true" odds on a team. For example, if your objective assessment of the game suggest that the underdog should be receiving 3.5pts but is in fact receiving 6.5pts, then that is a value-betting proposition. This is sometimes called an "overlay".

Value betting means betting when you regard the risk: reward ration as being heavily in your favor. And that can often mean betting the underdog. Too many bettors are frightened to back underdogs, but remember that a relatively poor team receiving a large pointspread does not actually have to win the game, just lose by less than the points it is receiving. And they frequently do because they better team is only interested in winning and reducing the risk of injury, not covering the pointspread.

Oddsmakers are often in a position where they have to issue lines/odds on a large number of games, so their resources are stretched and they are vulnerable. Even with their considerable expertise , they are by no means infallible, so be on the lookout for the so called "soft sports" where you consider that the oddsmaker has failed to judge the game or event properly or ignored a potentially key factor in the outcome.

Pay particular attention to key number in Football, especially 3,4,6,7, and 10, where minor changes in the spread have major implications for value. Even with the 2pt conversion option, changing a line from 6 to 7.5 is a major move; If you liked the under at +6, then you are getting tremendous value at +7.5.In Football, more games are decided by a margin or 3points than by any other margin. Therefore, a point spread of 2.5 to 3.5 is a critical to the smart bettor.

Go Against The Public

Certain teams traditionally have a strong public following. It might be last year's champion or a team with a high profile media superstar. Some teams, like the San Francisco 49ers, the Chicago Bulls, Manchester United, and the New York Yankees have captured the public's imagination and have millions of fans.

The best-value bets can often be found by going against these teams because the oddsmakers adjust theline to reflect the expected weight of public money; so that the underdog is often quested at better odds or receives a larger pointspread than is warranted.

Do Not Overreact to the Last Game

A team or player's current form should be a major consideration in your analysis. But do not over-emphasize the result of their last game of performance, especially high scoring games and "blow outs". The score may not accurately reflex the performance of quality of either the winning or losing teams.

[Spearit]

Pubic Opinion Plays today:

Arizona - Utah = Open Total 47 Now 44 Take the Over 44
Indiana- - Central Michigan Open -9 Now -7 Take Indiana -7

Good Luck and maybe more later.

[moondog22]

Thanks Spearit

[Spearit]

Guys - I will have to say I am putting 200 on each.Thanx Moondog

Neither of these plays are yet on Rips service fades. He has Utah as a lean

[drsho01]

I understand what your saying, but in last nights games with S. CAROLINA a
and Minn. both of the totals dropped about a point to a point and a half. Both unders came thru.

Is it when the line drops at least 2 points or more that you go against the money?

Just asking, thanks for your insight - it is appreciated.

[Spearit]

drsho01- Would love it - if it would drop further and am looking especially for those- however, if we are to believe that wise guys have gotten the line at -9 and we bring it to -7 as a betting public- the slant is that we will see up to 6% more chance of winning the bet. 3 points -up to 9 %. 4 points up to 12% chance on winning the bet. I wish to convey that I will make an effort to keep tract of each point total on all bets and their record. Therefore take the 3 point difference on the over as a decent bet. The public is swayed by many hypes or even rumors- like the QB has a broken toe. The Media hasn't caught wind of it. Then the QB dances his way to victory and the line had dropped prior. Fade the public for winners. Fade the services for winners.
It is not considered good value if it is less than 2 points.

[drsho01]

Ok - so the drop in the line last night did not give us good value. But when the line moves more than 2 points then go against the line movement. I think this is what you are saying.

[The Phreak]

Indiana is about 63% on *********. But I am gonna assume that you are using line movement (where the public is laying its $$) as your indication of public opinion. Also, do you think sites such as ********* offer an accurate representation of public opinion? Thanks for all the info.

[ChiefsFAN]

funny how you say fade the public, the public loves overs and favorites, then your two plays are a favorite and an over!!!
now thats nice psychology.
GOOD LUCK!

[moneyman]

Take it from an old-schooler:

The FIRST line is the BEST line.
gotta have enough n*ts & $$ to stick with IT!

[Spearit]

Guys- I am seeing how this works myself- no self-proclaimed genuis at line moves. However, last night they were 1-2 and I want to see what value is in this. I already played Central Mich. at 300 but I am reporting how things have changed in line movement. My info is a product of a site that follows Pinnacle and that is what results that are being shown. It may or may not have value- but it raises the consciousness to keep this in mind about the public.

Funny I was thinking the same thing- Cheifs fan
The Phreak--I don't know much about *********- I believe if I am gonna fade the public- I should visit them.
Dr. Sho01- Work with me here- Drastic line movements are public perception and historically the reality is they swing the odds in a favorable position for smart money to take advantage of.

[Spearit]

Friday

Arizona - Utah = Open Total 47 Now 44 Take the Over 44-----------WIN
Indiana- - Central Michigan Open -9 Now -7 Take Indiana -7--------Push

Saturday

OhioNorthWestern (Bet on Ohio +15)

Miami OhioOhio State (Bet on Miami Ohio +15.5)

Boston CollegeBYU (Bet on BYU +3)

[moondog22]

thanks Spearit

[Spearit]

Thank You Moondog
If any of you saw the 'fading the public Red Zone' was tring to sell. You might be able to figure from one of these three- maybe only one plays at night.