Wednesday's Fades

[BettorsChat]

nt

[krunch]

Wednesdays Fades

We had a nice turn out of service plays today, so most of our tallys are from actual service plays today!!!!!

7:05 Play the Cubbies +1.33; I got 17-3 (85%) services on the Braves

7:05 Play the Mets +1.60; I got 14-2 (87.5%) services on the Nationals

With comp plays from 1 major comp play site, these numbers would actually be higher

I got a few more working, I will let ya know around 7:50 if anymore fade plays come up!!!!! Good luck and lets hit these nice paying underdogs tonight!!!!!!


Krunch
:uzi:

[Ripple]

cubbies a rain out..good luck krunch buddy ...

[DZNUTZ]

I can't wait for college basketball to start!!!!!!!

[Ripple]

or college football

[krunch]

Final Fade Report

The Cubs game is postponed. The Mets are winning 4-3 late in their game!!!!! Keep the fingers crossed on the Mets gang!!!



10:05 Play the Reds/Giants under 10 even money; I got 8-1 services on the over

10:05 Play Arizona +1 1/2 RL +1.05; I got 12-5 services on the Cardinals. This is also a home team avoiding a sweep play!!!!


Anyone out there playing the fades tonight???



Krunch
:uzi:

[Ripple]

im rooting like hell for you krunch..i put enough services out there for you lol today ,,good luck and good night buddy ..

[krunch]

Rip

You definitely have been and thats great when we can get those kind of service plays out. Between bc, the other site, pick land, pick heaven, and my email plays, we're getting a nice amount of service plays. The first 2 fades I put out tonight, most of them were actually service plays. I like to get as many service plays as I can from here at bc and the other site, then I usually visit pick land and pick heaven. It sure would be nice to just get premiun plays for the fades, but we gotta use some comps too!! I look for the fades to start hitting a little bit over the next few days! We started off real bad so far in July, but I know its gonna get better. In June we were in the red the first week, then we turned it around and got on the + side for the rest of the month. I'm not worrying about it, because I know with the amount of underdogs we play, we'll be alright in the long run. We have made a profit each month, thats what it's all about. The other thing I like about the fades is, it seems like you don't really go on a major losing streak. This 4-8 start is the worse I've seen so far.



Krunch
:uzi:

[krunch]

Some New Fade Criteria

We are trying to tweak the fade system to make it stronger and more winnable for us gang! I have been listening to Rip and Spearit talking about some different ideas! These guys brought up some great points. So here goes:

1. Saturdays have been the worse day to play the fades. So what I'm going to attempt to do is, find a couple of the hotter baseball services. If these services have the same teams as their plays, we will probably be playing these teams on Saturdays.

2. I am eliminating playing Tampa Bay and Colorado when their on the road, as a fade play. These 2 teams are flat out terrible on the road.

3. I will not fade the Cardinals in an opening game of a new series, whether it's on the road or at Busch Stadium.


Hopefully, just by tightening up on a few angles/trends that we see happening will make our fade plays stronger in the long run and give us a higher winning percentage. If I forget and break any of these criteria's, please remind me!!!!


Thanks
Krunch

[joelatti]

Sounds great to me thanx for ALL your work KRUNCH

[BillyBarooooooo]

Krunch I use to have a membership to SI. It seems like alot of the fades are public play that are over 70% at SI. Seems when the services are on a side the public are on them hard! Not saying the public is always right and we know this when it comes to other sports than Bases. My membership ran out and I wont be paying to get it reinstated. The price has gone up over 100% and you can get those numbers anywhere I have been keeping track of them up till yesterday and will tell you this the public has bee righ on about 56% on the sides and 48% on the totals. Here are my number if you care............

Games that are
50-59% 53.8% 207-178
60-69% 55.4% 211-170
70-79% 56.6% 176-135
80-89% 62% 40-24

Totals
50-59% 48.3% 182-195
60-69% 47.1% 177-199
70-79% 44.4% 107-134
80-89% 54.4% 49-41
90-91% 50.0% 2-2

Just something I thougth I would throw at you. I have been following the fades for over 5 years now and found it interesting to see who the servies were on and the public. Matching the line movement. I do have the spread sheet and as I told you before if you want it your more than welcome. I have yet to enter in the data for the past few days cause I have been busy with other personal obligations. If your intersersted in the sheet just email me and I will get it to you. Once again I want to thank you for all your time and to everyone else here who has contributed! Yes that means you too WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Ripple! Your still the man!!!! LOL. Oh and TRUCKIN can not thank you enough with your system plays. Your plays have keep me in the game this year!

Krunch thanks for keeping the fades ALIVE!!!!


Thanks guys and BOL to everyone!

BB

[krunch]

Faders

Congratulations to the ones that played em yesterday!!! A nice 3-0 and +3.65 to put us on the + side for the month (+1.15 units)!!!!!!!!!!

Is anyone still playing the fades! I posted above a new criteria, that we're going to be tweaking the system a little more!

Krunch

[Spearit]

Played em Krunch - Nice Job Buddy

From BillyBaroooooooo
(It seems like alot of the fades are public play that are over 70% at SI. Seems when the services are on a side the public are on them hard!)

Thanks BillyBarooooooo. Are the above figures for baseball only?
It looks like you have done a tremendous amount of keeping stats and I believe it can be very helpful to us on Fadeland. Five years - different sports is a welcome tool for this system. Have you broken down the different sports to see what differences there are. I would be interested in seeing the spead sheets along with K, T and R
In an effort to get the full potential of this system of fades to work for bases as well as well as other sports/ Can you further comment on these questions - in your estimation?

1) You mentioned that generally the betting public is on the services plays "hard" generally. Have you noticed the opposite as well? 1) In your estimation- If a high percentage of services are on the opposite side of the betting public percentage- then do the fades have a higher percentage of winning this particular bet.
(Meaning the services have been directed to gain membership on the opposite side of betting majority to offset the play and Vegas doesn't get killed on an uneven sheet--Theory)

2) The percentages of winning from the sides is quite different than the totals, therefore-- the totals is a much better fade play in bases than sides. Am I reading this right- Would you agree?

3) Do you have any comment on how we can improve the percentage of winning on fades (opposite services) by adding the betting public percentage.

4) I believe stats for the other sports are available in your spread sheets. Does baseball stats for fades appear that much different over the years than the other sports? Are your sources typically the same as ours or do you use only certain services?

5) Do you have any other suggestions that may be useful in how we can tweak the system for an even higher percentage of winning?

Certainly appreciate your timing in coming forward.

[Spearit]

Billy Barooooo- Going back to number 2- If the services and therefore the betting majority are on a total - it has hit for less than around 48 % overall. If the play was faded - it would therefore be a higher percentage play in the system.

[krunch]

Faders

Since 4 July, I've been keeping track of the fades by percentages! It's early yet, but here's what i got so far!!!!!


Fades Play Wins Losses
70 to 79% 2 3
80 to 89% 2 2
90 to 99% 1
100% 1 1

Fade Plays 80% or better are 4-3 so far!!!! Will try to keep track of this and see how it pans out!!! Truckin had said, the plays with the higher percentage of services on, we're better fades in the long run. Lets try to track em for ourselves!!!




Krunch