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“ Part of a day in my life … Wednesday 12/28 “
This NFL weekend will be very exciting. I’m tied for first in the pool I’m in . It’s only for the regular season so this is the final weekend. There are payouts for the top 6, but the winner’s share is substantial … far more than any individual bet I’ve made this entire year … the take for coming in 2nd and 3rd ain’t too bad either. But I’ve never done anything in my life with the goal of placing or showing. I want to win.
Here’s the deal … The pool has been going on since 1975 and it’s very well organized and run by the same 2 guys. This year there are 100 contestants at a 1,000 unit buy in . Each of us has picked 5 games ATS every week … any 5 we choose , with Wednesday’s early edition of The New York Daily News posting The Line which everyone must go by. A half point is ADDED to every favorite with a whole number … to avoid pushes . If there is no line on a game , we can’t use it. There were prizes each week for the one or ones who went 5-0 . I have won 3 times already. I’ve made my buy in plus an additional 8,000 profit on top. All selections must be posted by Wednesday evening 8:00 PM.
It’s 3PM now so I have 5 hours to make my final decisions.
It will be a test of nerves and courage.
My Plan …..
I’m going to continue playing the sides which make me nervous as I’ve done every week because I’m not about to change my particular thinking of 25 years … not now when the others will no doubt take of all the “ comfortable “ sides, especially with so much on the line. I have to think like those around me, then pass their choices, or do just the opposite. I won’t know what they are playing until tomorrow evening ( Thursday ) when the 2 moderators fax me the report, so I must rely on human nature. ( I do know that the person tied with me is a favorite player … a “ MOTO “ … I’ve studied all his picks over the last 16 weeks … he got fat when the faves had their run a while back )
The edge goes to me because I’ve outworked all of them and I have icey cold water in my veins.
Just like the previous 16 weeks, all of my preparation was done Monday and Tuesday. Wednesdays we submit the picks. Then the rest of the week I keep my eyes and ears open. For instance I listen to the kids in the Deli while waiting on line … they argue over who will cover. Imagine … arguing over this stuff ? The one who is talking the loudest and is the most emotional is usually the most wrong ! He’s the one I pay the most attention to … He’s the pigeon !!! I spend some time each Friday morning reading the NY sports pages for their consensus picks. None of them is a real handicapper and their record bears me out. Also , I pay my friend a visit and give him the betting line cut out of the New York Post . He’s always wrong and he knows it … it’s a running joke with us. Once he circled 15 teams he thought would cover and every single one lost. You know what the odds are of doing that ? Roughly 2 to the fifteenth power … 32,768 to 1 … But it gets even better … 2 weeks after that he went 0-15 again. And yes I have witnesses … lol … No one can or will duplicate that feat in 1,000 years.
Anyway … It’s Showtime !!! Now I must THINK LIKE THEY DO … THINK WHAT THEY ARE PROBABLY GOING TO PICK … under their extreme pressure.
One by one … step by step.
Denver / San Diego –9 1/2 … tough to tell what their thinking is … Maybe the dog , figuring The Chargers are out of it and 9 ½ is a whole lot of points to give a team that’s 12-3
They will be playing The Giants at –8 1/2 , no doubt … sentimental sappy New Yorkers as they are. And why not ? Oakland Blows.
The Colts at –6 ½ …. Is a stickout … they’ll think it’s a gift … Colts will dedicate the game to Dungy’s son , and besides, they can’t ever imagine them losing 3 in a row.
If they play Baltimore-3 1/2 / Cleveland ,they’ll probably be looking at Baltimore … the jerks at ESPN were touting Kyle Boller last week like he’s the second coming of Joe Montana …. And Cleveland sucked last game. (With them , last impressions count a lot !!! )
They will throw out the Buffalo –1 ½ / Jets game … even the Jet fans won’t touch it.
Carolina at only -4 ½ in a must win vs. Atlanta … they’ll lean to The Panthers, figuring The Falcs are deflated from last week’s fiasco and The Panthers need it big time.
Chicago / Minnesota – 3 ½ … the dog most likely , knowing The Vikes are toast. Even with resting starters, The Bears should cover. They’ll think this one’s a gift.
Cincy / KC –7 ½ … tough to figure. KC great at home … Bengals +7 ½ … difficult … probably Bengals … no, on second thought … definitely Bengals. Playing KC would be too ballsy here … and with Carson Palmer at +7 ½,it looks comfortable .
Detroit / Pittsburgh –14 ½ … Are they thinking ?: “ Pittsburgh will win for sure but it’s a lot of points. Detroit just won last week … maybe they’ll try hard. What if weather is rotten … slippery track … turnovers … anything can happen. “ … can they lay over 2 TD’s under pressure ?
They’ll most likely pick New England at –6 ½ over Miami … it looks like a tremendous bargain.
Tampa Bay – 14 ½ in a must win vs. lowly New Orleans …. Definitely The Bucs … with Tampa’s D , they’ll figure that The Saints won’t score.
Houston – 1 ½ / San Francisco … too tough for them , but here’s where I have a strong opinion.
Jacksonville at –3 ½ should be their number one majority play …. ( they won’t even consider Tennessee for one minute )
Seattle / Green Bay … Seattle definitely …. “ Hey, they’re the best team in the NFC , Holmgren returns to Green Bay , and they just beat the Colts … now they’re getting 3 ½ … that’s the absolute steal of the Century !!! “ … even resting front line players, Seattle’s a lock.
And DEFINITELY WASHINGTON – 7 ½ … DEFINITELY. ABSOLUTELY … 100% … The Skins will be one of the 3 most popular sides for sure.
St.Louis / Dallas – 12 ½ … probably a little Dallas … ( Parcells in a must win ) but they will not jump all over this game.
OK … Now I must consider the following teams … San Diego, Oakland, Arizona , Cleveland, Atlanta , Minnesota , Kansas City , Pittsburgh , Miami , New Orleans , Tennessee , Green Bay, and Philadelphia …. Plus whatever else I have in my arsenal.
I go to my notes and review my findings.
Remember , what I’m looking for is to make a good case ( no , a great case ) for 4-5 of the sides opposite what I think they will choose.
Denver / San Diego
I have good stuff for both sides … 15-4 and 12-1 ATS for Denver … 25-7 ATS for The Chargers … no edge either way. While laying the wood is probably the right thing to do , I need more info which is non existent. Don’t look for something that’s just not there. Pass it up.
Oakland / Giants
Stay away from Oakland even though Systems and Team Trends clearly favor The Raiders, and the Giants are real banged up at linebacker. Even though Oakland is the courageous side, don’t trust a moronic coach, a drunken quarterback and a prozac - filled owner , even with The Giants being 2-15 ATS in this situation. Let them pick the Giants … just sit back. Maybe they’ll dig their own grave. Besides,there are better games to choose from.
Arizona / Indianapolis
Nice looking 23-7 system favoring The Cards … and that line ( -6 ½ ) stinks to high heavens. The game would be Pk ‘Em in Arizona. That’s totally insane ! Arizona looks like the side … But Dig deeper !
The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since week 10, 2003 as a road dog when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak.
The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS (-15.3 ppg) since week 11, 2000 on the road when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.
Damn , I thought I had one … but Arizona is flawed … Throw this game out!
Baltimore / Cleveland
Mixed signals up and down the line … good and bad stuff for both teams … much too tough to call. Pass this one for sure.
Carolina / Atlanta
I have enough action on Carolina … a $3,000 future at 9/1 to win $27,000 for a Super Bowl victory. I‘m going to take Atlanta + whatever points I can get over the weekend to hedge my future and then some. Who knows ? I just might stay alive with The Panthers AND win my Atlanta bet if Carolina wins by 3 or less. Don’t use this game for the pool . As it is,there is already enough riding on it.
Chicago / Minnesota
Definite edges to The Bears but why are they dogs ? , Minnesota in dreadful spot (0-28 ATS combined team tendencies ) but why are they faves ? Who will be playing for Chicago ? for Minnesota ? There are too many questions that can not be answered with a Wednesday Deadline … Chicago looks so obvious here … Minnesota is probably the side but I can’t make any kind of case at all for The Vikes … throw it out.
Cincinnati / Kansas City
The Chiefs are 8-0 ATS (14.6 ppg) since week 11, 1996 at home when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite.
This is all I have and it’s so not nearly enough. I’m Clueless and Passing.
Detroit / Pittsburgh
This one is LOADED with goodies for The Steelers. But Neil , first and foremost you must strip yourself of any feeling for Harrington and Garcia … and just study the facts.
Detroit: Road teams off a non Sunday or Monday away win vs. non division opponents are 0-12 ATS in their next game. ( The Lions won SU at New Orleans last Saturday )
Also, The Lions are 0-11 ATS since week 10, 1991 on the road on grass after a straight up win when the line is within 3 of pick’em.
The Steelers are 22-2 ATS at home vs a .500 or less opponent off SU and ATS Win.
Also, The Steelers are 8-0 ATS since week 11, 1993 as a home favorite after playing as a TD+ favorite.
And after seeing even more of both teams tendencies, I conclude that this is a total dominator game for The Steelers … Mark them down !!
Miami / New England
Clear cut one sided dominance to New England here from an historical perspective. ( 27-0 ATS for The Pats and 5-48 ATS for Miami. ) The $64,000 Questions are : “ Why did the linesmaker post NE as only –4 ½ ? (they’ve since been bet up to –6 ) They were 5 ½ over Tampa Bay 2 weeks ago ( my System GOY ) and beat the crap out of them. Now they were made –4 ½ over Miami ??? Isn’t Tampa Bay is better than Miami ? … New England is 9-0 ATS when their last game of the season is at home. Still … why only 4 ½ ?
Think, Neil … Because Nick Saban is the difference maker , that’s why … and Miami just might be sky high to finish at 8-6 rather than 7-7. The 5-48 ATS for Miami was amassed by other coaches in a different era … the trends could be outdated … And Billy B could very well mail this one in , given the team’s injuries this season.
My 6th sense tells me to pass this one by.
New Orleans / Tampa Bay
Now this one really stands out !!! Tampa is dreadful in this spot … 0-13, 0-7, 1-13, 0-5, 0-6…. ATS
New Orleans shows 8-0, 5-0, 11-2…. ATS
Also, this game looks like an Under … TB is 1/18 and 4/22 and The Saints 0/5.
All year long The Saints have played with adversity and misery of immeasurable proportions. They just might want to go out fighting like the dickens . I can picture The Saints being real pests here … Neil … this could be the fake out you’ve been looking for … Brooks isn’t starting … that’s good for The Saints because he’s a pantload !!! Their back up ( Bowman ) is better … this one goes right down to the wire … a late field goal or a missed 2 point conversion … something dramatic !!!!
New Orleans +14 ½ … Mark it !!!
Houston / San Francisco
They won’t play this game … They’re calling it “ The Bush Bowl “ Yeah , right ! And who’s to say that Bush won’t decline playing for either team … like Elway way back when … or Eli drafted by The Chargers ? All I know is Houston is a road favorite ! Can you imagine that ? Why couldn’t SF be –3 ? Why Houston ? The most pathetic bunch of lard asses … This alone is enough to grab my attention. I like Houston here. Go to the notes !
The Texans are 9-1 ATS in this situation , and there is a 14-1 System on them. San Francisco has 2 team trends going against them totaling 0-15 ATS.
Now I LOVE Houston … how ballsy is a pick on Houston … How scary are they ? … Courage , Neil …. Mark The Texans !!!
Tennessee / Jacksonville
The line alone gives this one away. Jack –3 ½ tells me Tennessee is the play. It tells THEM that The Jags are the lock of the year … and I heard that Leftwich will see action on Sunday … which means THEY heard the same thing … But I have to dig deeper than just that. I need reasons to play Tennessee.
Disappointingly , my notes reveal that teams in The Titans spot ( seeking same season revenge for a straight up loss but ATS win of less than 6 points ) perform miserably in the rematch. This year alone 3 other teams have tried it and failed.
But I can’t play The Jags … not when the linesmaker is telling me this is the Trap Du Jour !!! Experience tells me that Tennessee is the side … but that System against them is creeping me out . Move on .
Seattle / Green Bay.
Seattle opened –2 and Green Bay is now favored !!! I want to know why Seattle is not –10 , against one of the worst teams in football. I know they will be resting starters, but still.
Well , one of my systems tells me to “play against an away dog with a win/loss percentage of .800 or more in a non-division game, the opponent is off a SU loss, and it is game 7 or later. This system is 16-2 ATS” . OK … so far so good, a lean on Green Bay.
Also, The Packers have 4 team trends which are 29-0 , ATS.
Favre has faked me out lately, with a roll job loss at Baltimore and with a push at +7 vs. Chicago , threw 4 picks in that game , 5 the week before … but just now I’m listening to him on the radio, talking about retirement … he seems most calm … AHA !!! Acceptance !!! The last of the 5 stages that everyone goes through when learning that they are about to die ... and a big piece of him is dying. Maybe he has found inner peace … And maybe he’ll play an amazing game this Sunday , like 3-4 TD passes ! … I’m going with him on the hope that while his skills have spiraled downward, the pride and fire will still be in tact for his last home game.
The pool people must take Seattle here. How can they resist the temptation?
This one’s right up my alley. I’ll mark Green Bay
Washington / Philadelphia
My work reveals that Philly will not only cover this game , but has a damn good chance to win outright. I will make it the #1 Money Line play for this Sunday. Washington is in a 2-18 ATS league system and suffers from other maladies totaling 0-20 ATS. Brunell is banged up, Ramsay is a glorified punching bag and Philly trends total 44-1 ATS.
And low and behold , here’s THE CROWN JEWEL !!!
Andy Reid is 12-0 from game 10 out with same season revenge vs. less than .750 division opponents.
Although The Eagles have had an injury riddled , dissention filled , disappointing season, I believe they still respect Coach Reid, and history shows that in this spot ,Andy will have them sky high.
Mark Philadelphia !!!!
St. Louis / Dallas
My work favors Dallas … there is 1 System for The Rams , but this game is not nearly strong enough here for me to shake loose any of the 5 sides I’ve already chosen.
So these are the 5 teams I am submitting, and I’m going for all the marbles.
Pittsburgh – 14 1/2
New Orleans +14 1/2
Houston –1 ½
Green Bay – 3 ½
Philadelphia +7 ½
I realize that Sunday is a long ways away from now insomuch that any of a number of things can happen with the teams I’ve chosen … but as of 8:00 Wednesday this is out of my control … same as with my fellow competitors.
No one has this combination of 5 teams ... Not even close.
And guys … If I don’t win, at least it wasn’t for lack of effort, and more importantly I know that I have not compromised any of the things I believe in when I handicap The NFL.
Wish me luck !
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Oh … before I forget ….
It’s that time of the year so make sure your “Outs” reward you with a year end bonus for your loyalty and patronage. Just mention it to them and there’s a good chance you’ll get a little somethin somethin. If they decline, just know that they are giving it out to other customers … because trust me , they are.
Bonuses of $ 500 , $1,000 , $2,000 and up (depending upon how big a whale you are) are usual and customary practice. It’s done all the time … REGARDLESS IF YOU ARE A NET WINNER OR LOSER BY YEAR’S END.
NOW … what if they don’t feel like doing the real right thing, let’s say they offer you 1 free bet with no vig for whatever amount they decide …. ( This to me would be considered a small slap in the face so I’ll tell you how to play it …. Wait for a real big college basketball card and pick the highest , most chalky, assy favorite , -30 or thereabouts … Duke vs. some very crappy team …. Asshole University … and play Duke straight up on the Money Line. ) Get The Picture ?
Anyway , I keep urging you guys to negotiate with your Outs in many different ways … while this is one of the least important perks … remember that you deserve any and all accomodations.
Good Luck
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There’s a shakeup in NFL TV scheduling for next season.
Unless I heard incorrectly:
There will be no MNFB on ABC … the games will be broadcast on ESPN
Al Michaels will be the headline announcer.
And I heard that Joe Theismann will be his side man. ( Ewwwwwwwww )
There will be no Sunday Night Football on ESPN … the games will be aired on NBC
John Madden will be one of the announcing crew.
If this is true :
-MNFB will be an absolute horror show unless Al Michaels sits Theismann down ahead of time and tells him to keep his mouth shut just in case he’s even thinking of starting in with his contradicting bullshit … like the crap he pulled with those OTHER TWO STOOGES who were too innebriated to backhand him across his friggin’ face.
-Also I hope we will have seen the last of Suzy Kolber … that insufferable sideline pest who brings absolutely nothing to the table ( in fact, she sneaks over to that table, takes every lobster that she can get her mitts on … the shrimp too … along with all the potato salad and even the ice sculpture … stuffs everything in a shopping bag, then runs away ) …. You know … the one who had the audacity to hype herself by concocting that ridiculous fable that Joe Namath came on to her once during an interview. ( yeah … And I’m a jet airplane pilot who is constantly being harassed and stalked by J-Lo , Heide Klumm and Eva Mendes ( Shown in the next 2 pics ) )
Kolber has gotten much too much air time and I’m tellin ya she must know someone high up … REALLY HIGH UP … to get that kind of gig in the first place.
Here !!!
Yeah, Right, Suzy … Namath came on to you … you should be so lucky … Keep dreaming, You Creep !!!
Come to think of it this Bonnie Bernstein is just awful as well … ( wondering who the hell does she knows, too )
AHA !!!! OK … that explains it
It’s tough to accept, but the quality of sports announcing is third rate and it’s getting worse all the time. Years ago , broadcasters took pride in their craft , but most of the great ones have passed away. I’m all for change, just as long as there is change for the better. Good announcing really makes or breaks a game. Over the years the technology has improved with leaps and bounds but the human component is strictly out of some mass production assembly line... in Bristol , Connecticut.
If I want gossip I’ll tune in to any of a number of fruity daytime talk shows … The View , Oprah, Dr. Phil , Ellen Degeneres …. But when I have a huge bet on a football game, I want to hear play by play so colorfully vivid and exciting that it makes my dick hard enough to hang laundry on , and the last thing I want to see is some prep school twat on the sidelines with a whiney voice yappin away over some irrelevant human interest story about a bunch of fucking strangers … every five minutes.
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A Jose Cortez Sighting ….
A few weeks ago he was an Eagle
Then got Parcel Posted to Frisco
Now he’s a Indy Colt !!!!
What is Cortez ? … some kind of drug mule for The NFL ? He must get paid in frequent flier miles.
A horrible thought … is there a chance this one time hand puppet for Vince Mc Mahon will actually stay a Colt ? Could he possibly be on a Super Bowl Team if The Colts make it ? Oh God … if yes , he’d have the same number of Super Bowl appearances as Dan Marino ??? Christ , I’m so depressed now.
Just look at this …
Jose and that club foot of his, about to fall over backwards …
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Just thinking ….
Has either Matt Leinart and Vince Young EVER played a game in really bad weather ?
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“THE MALICE OF BLASPHEMY” …
This is from NBC News
John Damon's father said the Red Sox made a huge mistake in letting his son go to the New York Yankees and that it could signal the beginning of another Curse in Boston.
"Mark it down: It's going to be another Babe Ruth," Jimmy Damon told The New York Daily News. "They sent John off just like they sent off Babe Ruth. It's going to be another big, big mistake. They made the biggest mistake of their lives."
"The Yankees are going to win it with John in there," he told the Daily News. "I think Boston will always remember the day they let him leave."
Is this guy hallucinating or what? ? I mean , the very thought of mentioning “ J O H N N Y D A M O N “ in the same sentence with Babe Ruth is sinful … doesn’t this nincumpoop know that most of the fans in New York don’t want his son on the Yanks anyway ? And … he tells us to “ Mark down “ his prediction. What a goof !!! … I’ll be sure to do just that , ASSHOLE … this way 80 years from now when I’m 130 years old I can dig up my notebook and marvel at your incredible stupidity.
Bottom line … Damon’s old man just wrote a check that his son will not be able to cash.
The Yanks will not win a championship with Damon on the team.
And bear in mind that George S. is a very impatient man.
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Las Vegas just loves Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno, and well they should. These two sneaky little con men have been pulling in truckloads of dough for sportsbooks for almost a half of a century. In 90% of their teams’ games the public gets it in the ass pipe. Now they’re going head to head in the Orange Bowl next Tuesday … Good !!! … If you’re thinking of playing this game my best advice is: Don’t ! But if you absolutely must , then moreso than ever, go against the majority.
For me it’s just one less game to handicap, rather than 2. With no exceptions, I throw out all games in which either of these pigs is involved.
What I wouldn’t give to have both their phone records for the days leading right up to gametime . How many times will they speak with one another.
Of course that’s impossible … they use pay phones and throw away cells.
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My vote for NFL Coach of the Year
Nick Saban
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“The Mysterious Sideline Cell Phone Conversation” ….
Jim Mora Jr. and his gang of nit wit coaches really screwed up last Saturday. After both The Falcons and Bucs blew OT field goals, Atlanta had the ball with 2 minutes remaining fairly deep in their own end. They could have eaten the clock by running the ball … and with a first down, forced a tie … kept their playoff hopes alive, and lived to play a meaningful game, at least for another week.
So what did they do on third and 2 ? Vick threw what amounted to a Hail Mary … very unnecessary … of course very incomplete … stopping the clock …. and Atlanta was then very forced to punt the ball.
Chris Simms then smartly led The Bucs down the field , and Atlanta was cooked.
Mora went freaking ballistic on the sidelines and then again at the post game press conference … unable to admit what everyone saw with their own eyes … just how his old man used to cower after his team got beat when they shouldn’t have.
Oddly enough , before the game Mora vowed that he was prepared for any and every situation confronting his team.
Jim - In truth there were only 3 possibilities to consider … everybody in the world knew the first 2 … You win , you’re still alive … you lose , you’re out.
But you totally ignored the third, and as it turned out, the most important one … with a tie , you remain eligible for playoff football.
How could you possibly have overlooked that?
Now to the strangest occurance of all … during the last hectic 2 minutes , the camera crew caught Mora running down the sidelines into a private area , with headset off and cell phone in his hand. He was talking on his cell and the announcers even commented about how unusual it is for a coach to do so. They even joked that it had better not be his wife on the line.
Who was he talking with and what about ? Closest guess is that he panicked and reached out to someone for advice as to what the playoff implications were in case of a tie … or someone called him to tell him he was blowing it.
In either event , by the time he was off the phone it was too late and the irreparable damage had been done.
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See you next week
Neil
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This NFL weekend will be very exciting. I’m tied for first in the pool I’m in . It’s only for the regular season so this is the final weekend. There are payouts for the top 6, but the winner’s share is substantial … far more than any individual bet I’ve made this entire year … the take for coming in 2nd and 3rd ain’t too bad either. But I’ve never done anything in my life with the goal of placing or showing. I want to win.
Here’s the deal … The pool has been going on since 1975 and it’s very well organized and run by the same 2 guys. This year there are 100 contestants at a 1,000 unit buy in . Each of us has picked 5 games ATS every week … any 5 we choose , with Wednesday’s early edition of The New York Daily News posting The Line which everyone must go by. A half point is ADDED to every favorite with a whole number … to avoid pushes . If there is no line on a game , we can’t use it. There were prizes each week for the one or ones who went 5-0 . I have won 3 times already. I’ve made my buy in plus an additional 8,000 profit on top. All selections must be posted by Wednesday evening 8:00 PM.
It’s 3PM now so I have 5 hours to make my final decisions.
It will be a test of nerves and courage.
My Plan …..
I’m going to continue playing the sides which make me nervous as I’ve done every week because I’m not about to change my particular thinking of 25 years … not now when the others will no doubt take of all the “ comfortable “ sides, especially with so much on the line. I have to think like those around me, then pass their choices, or do just the opposite. I won’t know what they are playing until tomorrow evening ( Thursday ) when the 2 moderators fax me the report, so I must rely on human nature. ( I do know that the person tied with me is a favorite player … a “ MOTO “ … I’ve studied all his picks over the last 16 weeks … he got fat when the faves had their run a while back )
The edge goes to me because I’ve outworked all of them and I have icey cold water in my veins.
Just like the previous 16 weeks, all of my preparation was done Monday and Tuesday. Wednesdays we submit the picks. Then the rest of the week I keep my eyes and ears open. For instance I listen to the kids in the Deli while waiting on line … they argue over who will cover. Imagine … arguing over this stuff ? The one who is talking the loudest and is the most emotional is usually the most wrong ! He’s the one I pay the most attention to … He’s the pigeon !!! I spend some time each Friday morning reading the NY sports pages for their consensus picks. None of them is a real handicapper and their record bears me out. Also , I pay my friend a visit and give him the betting line cut out of the New York Post . He’s always wrong and he knows it … it’s a running joke with us. Once he circled 15 teams he thought would cover and every single one lost. You know what the odds are of doing that ? Roughly 2 to the fifteenth power … 32,768 to 1 … But it gets even better … 2 weeks after that he went 0-15 again. And yes I have witnesses … lol … No one can or will duplicate that feat in 1,000 years.
Anyway … It’s Showtime !!! Now I must THINK LIKE THEY DO … THINK WHAT THEY ARE PROBABLY GOING TO PICK … under their extreme pressure.
One by one … step by step.
Denver / San Diego –9 1/2 … tough to tell what their thinking is … Maybe the dog , figuring The Chargers are out of it and 9 ½ is a whole lot of points to give a team that’s 12-3
They will be playing The Giants at –8 1/2 , no doubt … sentimental sappy New Yorkers as they are. And why not ? Oakland Blows.
The Colts at –6 ½ …. Is a stickout … they’ll think it’s a gift … Colts will dedicate the game to Dungy’s son , and besides, they can’t ever imagine them losing 3 in a row.
If they play Baltimore-3 1/2 / Cleveland ,they’ll probably be looking at Baltimore … the jerks at ESPN were touting Kyle Boller last week like he’s the second coming of Joe Montana …. And Cleveland sucked last game. (With them , last impressions count a lot !!! )
They will throw out the Buffalo –1 ½ / Jets game … even the Jet fans won’t touch it.
Carolina at only -4 ½ in a must win vs. Atlanta … they’ll lean to The Panthers, figuring The Falcs are deflated from last week’s fiasco and The Panthers need it big time.
Chicago / Minnesota – 3 ½ … the dog most likely , knowing The Vikes are toast. Even with resting starters, The Bears should cover. They’ll think this one’s a gift.
Cincy / KC –7 ½ … tough to figure. KC great at home … Bengals +7 ½ … difficult … probably Bengals … no, on second thought … definitely Bengals. Playing KC would be too ballsy here … and with Carson Palmer at +7 ½,it looks comfortable .
Detroit / Pittsburgh –14 ½ … Are they thinking ?: “ Pittsburgh will win for sure but it’s a lot of points. Detroit just won last week … maybe they’ll try hard. What if weather is rotten … slippery track … turnovers … anything can happen. “ … can they lay over 2 TD’s under pressure ?
They’ll most likely pick New England at –6 ½ over Miami … it looks like a tremendous bargain.
Tampa Bay – 14 ½ in a must win vs. lowly New Orleans …. Definitely The Bucs … with Tampa’s D , they’ll figure that The Saints won’t score.
Houston – 1 ½ / San Francisco … too tough for them , but here’s where I have a strong opinion.
Jacksonville at –3 ½ should be their number one majority play …. ( they won’t even consider Tennessee for one minute )
Seattle / Green Bay … Seattle definitely …. “ Hey, they’re the best team in the NFC , Holmgren returns to Green Bay , and they just beat the Colts … now they’re getting 3 ½ … that’s the absolute steal of the Century !!! “ … even resting front line players, Seattle’s a lock.
And DEFINITELY WASHINGTON – 7 ½ … DEFINITELY. ABSOLUTELY … 100% … The Skins will be one of the 3 most popular sides for sure.
St.Louis / Dallas – 12 ½ … probably a little Dallas … ( Parcells in a must win ) but they will not jump all over this game.
OK … Now I must consider the following teams … San Diego, Oakland, Arizona , Cleveland, Atlanta , Minnesota , Kansas City , Pittsburgh , Miami , New Orleans , Tennessee , Green Bay, and Philadelphia …. Plus whatever else I have in my arsenal.
I go to my notes and review my findings.
Remember , what I’m looking for is to make a good case ( no , a great case ) for 4-5 of the sides opposite what I think they will choose.
Denver / San Diego
I have good stuff for both sides … 15-4 and 12-1 ATS for Denver … 25-7 ATS for The Chargers … no edge either way. While laying the wood is probably the right thing to do , I need more info which is non existent. Don’t look for something that’s just not there. Pass it up.
Oakland / Giants
Stay away from Oakland even though Systems and Team Trends clearly favor The Raiders, and the Giants are real banged up at linebacker. Even though Oakland is the courageous side, don’t trust a moronic coach, a drunken quarterback and a prozac - filled owner , even with The Giants being 2-15 ATS in this situation. Let them pick the Giants … just sit back. Maybe they’ll dig their own grave. Besides,there are better games to choose from.
Arizona / Indianapolis
Nice looking 23-7 system favoring The Cards … and that line ( -6 ½ ) stinks to high heavens. The game would be Pk ‘Em in Arizona. That’s totally insane ! Arizona looks like the side … But Dig deeper !
The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since week 10, 2003 as a road dog when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak.
The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS (-15.3 ppg) since week 11, 2000 on the road when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.
Damn , I thought I had one … but Arizona is flawed … Throw this game out!
Baltimore / Cleveland
Mixed signals up and down the line … good and bad stuff for both teams … much too tough to call. Pass this one for sure.
Carolina / Atlanta
I have enough action on Carolina … a $3,000 future at 9/1 to win $27,000 for a Super Bowl victory. I‘m going to take Atlanta + whatever points I can get over the weekend to hedge my future and then some. Who knows ? I just might stay alive with The Panthers AND win my Atlanta bet if Carolina wins by 3 or less. Don’t use this game for the pool . As it is,there is already enough riding on it.
Chicago / Minnesota
Definite edges to The Bears but why are they dogs ? , Minnesota in dreadful spot (0-28 ATS combined team tendencies ) but why are they faves ? Who will be playing for Chicago ? for Minnesota ? There are too many questions that can not be answered with a Wednesday Deadline … Chicago looks so obvious here … Minnesota is probably the side but I can’t make any kind of case at all for The Vikes … throw it out.
Cincinnati / Kansas City
The Chiefs are 8-0 ATS (14.6 ppg) since week 11, 1996 at home when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite.
This is all I have and it’s so not nearly enough. I’m Clueless and Passing.
Detroit / Pittsburgh
This one is LOADED with goodies for The Steelers. But Neil , first and foremost you must strip yourself of any feeling for Harrington and Garcia … and just study the facts.
Detroit: Road teams off a non Sunday or Monday away win vs. non division opponents are 0-12 ATS in their next game. ( The Lions won SU at New Orleans last Saturday )
Also, The Lions are 0-11 ATS since week 10, 1991 on the road on grass after a straight up win when the line is within 3 of pick’em.
The Steelers are 22-2 ATS at home vs a .500 or less opponent off SU and ATS Win.
Also, The Steelers are 8-0 ATS since week 11, 1993 as a home favorite after playing as a TD+ favorite.
And after seeing even more of both teams tendencies, I conclude that this is a total dominator game for The Steelers … Mark them down !!
Miami / New England
Clear cut one sided dominance to New England here from an historical perspective. ( 27-0 ATS for The Pats and 5-48 ATS for Miami. ) The $64,000 Questions are : “ Why did the linesmaker post NE as only –4 ½ ? (they’ve since been bet up to –6 ) They were 5 ½ over Tampa Bay 2 weeks ago ( my System GOY ) and beat the crap out of them. Now they were made –4 ½ over Miami ??? Isn’t Tampa Bay is better than Miami ? … New England is 9-0 ATS when their last game of the season is at home. Still … why only 4 ½ ?
Think, Neil … Because Nick Saban is the difference maker , that’s why … and Miami just might be sky high to finish at 8-6 rather than 7-7. The 5-48 ATS for Miami was amassed by other coaches in a different era … the trends could be outdated … And Billy B could very well mail this one in , given the team’s injuries this season.
My 6th sense tells me to pass this one by.
New Orleans / Tampa Bay
Now this one really stands out !!! Tampa is dreadful in this spot … 0-13, 0-7, 1-13, 0-5, 0-6…. ATS
New Orleans shows 8-0, 5-0, 11-2…. ATS
Also, this game looks like an Under … TB is 1/18 and 4/22 and The Saints 0/5.
All year long The Saints have played with adversity and misery of immeasurable proportions. They just might want to go out fighting like the dickens . I can picture The Saints being real pests here … Neil … this could be the fake out you’ve been looking for … Brooks isn’t starting … that’s good for The Saints because he’s a pantload !!! Their back up ( Bowman ) is better … this one goes right down to the wire … a late field goal or a missed 2 point conversion … something dramatic !!!!
New Orleans +14 ½ … Mark it !!!
Houston / San Francisco
They won’t play this game … They’re calling it “ The Bush Bowl “ Yeah , right ! And who’s to say that Bush won’t decline playing for either team … like Elway way back when … or Eli drafted by The Chargers ? All I know is Houston is a road favorite ! Can you imagine that ? Why couldn’t SF be –3 ? Why Houston ? The most pathetic bunch of lard asses … This alone is enough to grab my attention. I like Houston here. Go to the notes !
The Texans are 9-1 ATS in this situation , and there is a 14-1 System on them. San Francisco has 2 team trends going against them totaling 0-15 ATS.
Now I LOVE Houston … how ballsy is a pick on Houston … How scary are they ? … Courage , Neil …. Mark The Texans !!!
Tennessee / Jacksonville
The line alone gives this one away. Jack –3 ½ tells me Tennessee is the play. It tells THEM that The Jags are the lock of the year … and I heard that Leftwich will see action on Sunday … which means THEY heard the same thing … But I have to dig deeper than just that. I need reasons to play Tennessee.
Disappointingly , my notes reveal that teams in The Titans spot ( seeking same season revenge for a straight up loss but ATS win of less than 6 points ) perform miserably in the rematch. This year alone 3 other teams have tried it and failed.
But I can’t play The Jags … not when the linesmaker is telling me this is the Trap Du Jour !!! Experience tells me that Tennessee is the side … but that System against them is creeping me out . Move on .
Seattle / Green Bay.
Seattle opened –2 and Green Bay is now favored !!! I want to know why Seattle is not –10 , against one of the worst teams in football. I know they will be resting starters, but still.
Well , one of my systems tells me to “play against an away dog with a win/loss percentage of .800 or more in a non-division game, the opponent is off a SU loss, and it is game 7 or later. This system is 16-2 ATS” . OK … so far so good, a lean on Green Bay.
Also, The Packers have 4 team trends which are 29-0 , ATS.
Favre has faked me out lately, with a roll job loss at Baltimore and with a push at +7 vs. Chicago , threw 4 picks in that game , 5 the week before … but just now I’m listening to him on the radio, talking about retirement … he seems most calm … AHA !!! Acceptance !!! The last of the 5 stages that everyone goes through when learning that they are about to die ... and a big piece of him is dying. Maybe he has found inner peace … And maybe he’ll play an amazing game this Sunday , like 3-4 TD passes ! … I’m going with him on the hope that while his skills have spiraled downward, the pride and fire will still be in tact for his last home game.
The pool people must take Seattle here. How can they resist the temptation?
This one’s right up my alley. I’ll mark Green Bay
Washington / Philadelphia
My work reveals that Philly will not only cover this game , but has a damn good chance to win outright. I will make it the #1 Money Line play for this Sunday. Washington is in a 2-18 ATS league system and suffers from other maladies totaling 0-20 ATS. Brunell is banged up, Ramsay is a glorified punching bag and Philly trends total 44-1 ATS.
And low and behold , here’s THE CROWN JEWEL !!!
Andy Reid is 12-0 from game 10 out with same season revenge vs. less than .750 division opponents.
Although The Eagles have had an injury riddled , dissention filled , disappointing season, I believe they still respect Coach Reid, and history shows that in this spot ,Andy will have them sky high.
Mark Philadelphia !!!!
St. Louis / Dallas
My work favors Dallas … there is 1 System for The Rams , but this game is not nearly strong enough here for me to shake loose any of the 5 sides I’ve already chosen.
So these are the 5 teams I am submitting, and I’m going for all the marbles.
Pittsburgh – 14 1/2
New Orleans +14 1/2
Houston –1 ½
Green Bay – 3 ½
Philadelphia +7 ½
I realize that Sunday is a long ways away from now insomuch that any of a number of things can happen with the teams I’ve chosen … but as of 8:00 Wednesday this is out of my control … same as with my fellow competitors.
No one has this combination of 5 teams ... Not even close.
And guys … If I don’t win, at least it wasn’t for lack of effort, and more importantly I know that I have not compromised any of the things I believe in when I handicap The NFL.
Wish me luck !
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Oh … before I forget ….
It’s that time of the year so make sure your “Outs” reward you with a year end bonus for your loyalty and patronage. Just mention it to them and there’s a good chance you’ll get a little somethin somethin. If they decline, just know that they are giving it out to other customers … because trust me , they are.
Bonuses of $ 500 , $1,000 , $2,000 and up (depending upon how big a whale you are) are usual and customary practice. It’s done all the time … REGARDLESS IF YOU ARE A NET WINNER OR LOSER BY YEAR’S END.
NOW … what if they don’t feel like doing the real right thing, let’s say they offer you 1 free bet with no vig for whatever amount they decide …. ( This to me would be considered a small slap in the face so I’ll tell you how to play it …. Wait for a real big college basketball card and pick the highest , most chalky, assy favorite , -30 or thereabouts … Duke vs. some very crappy team …. Asshole University … and play Duke straight up on the Money Line. ) Get The Picture ?
Anyway , I keep urging you guys to negotiate with your Outs in many different ways … while this is one of the least important perks … remember that you deserve any and all accomodations.
Good Luck
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There’s a shakeup in NFL TV scheduling for next season.
Unless I heard incorrectly:
There will be no MNFB on ABC … the games will be broadcast on ESPN
Al Michaels will be the headline announcer.
And I heard that Joe Theismann will be his side man. ( Ewwwwwwwww )
There will be no Sunday Night Football on ESPN … the games will be aired on NBC
John Madden will be one of the announcing crew.
If this is true :
-MNFB will be an absolute horror show unless Al Michaels sits Theismann down ahead of time and tells him to keep his mouth shut just in case he’s even thinking of starting in with his contradicting bullshit … like the crap he pulled with those OTHER TWO STOOGES who were too innebriated to backhand him across his friggin’ face.
-Also I hope we will have seen the last of Suzy Kolber … that insufferable sideline pest who brings absolutely nothing to the table ( in fact, she sneaks over to that table, takes every lobster that she can get her mitts on … the shrimp too … along with all the potato salad and even the ice sculpture … stuffs everything in a shopping bag, then runs away ) …. You know … the one who had the audacity to hype herself by concocting that ridiculous fable that Joe Namath came on to her once during an interview. ( yeah … And I’m a jet airplane pilot who is constantly being harassed and stalked by J-Lo , Heide Klumm and Eva Mendes ( Shown in the next 2 pics ) )
Kolber has gotten much too much air time and I’m tellin ya she must know someone high up … REALLY HIGH UP … to get that kind of gig in the first place.
Here !!!
Yeah, Right, Suzy … Namath came on to you … you should be so lucky … Keep dreaming, You Creep !!!
Come to think of it this Bonnie Bernstein is just awful as well … ( wondering who the hell does she knows, too )
AHA !!!! OK … that explains it
It’s tough to accept, but the quality of sports announcing is third rate and it’s getting worse all the time. Years ago , broadcasters took pride in their craft , but most of the great ones have passed away. I’m all for change, just as long as there is change for the better. Good announcing really makes or breaks a game. Over the years the technology has improved with leaps and bounds but the human component is strictly out of some mass production assembly line... in Bristol , Connecticut.
If I want gossip I’ll tune in to any of a number of fruity daytime talk shows … The View , Oprah, Dr. Phil , Ellen Degeneres …. But when I have a huge bet on a football game, I want to hear play by play so colorfully vivid and exciting that it makes my dick hard enough to hang laundry on , and the last thing I want to see is some prep school twat on the sidelines with a whiney voice yappin away over some irrelevant human interest story about a bunch of fucking strangers … every five minutes.
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A Jose Cortez Sighting ….
A few weeks ago he was an Eagle
Then got Parcel Posted to Frisco
Now he’s a Indy Colt !!!!
What is Cortez ? … some kind of drug mule for The NFL ? He must get paid in frequent flier miles.
A horrible thought … is there a chance this one time hand puppet for Vince Mc Mahon will actually stay a Colt ? Could he possibly be on a Super Bowl Team if The Colts make it ? Oh God … if yes , he’d have the same number of Super Bowl appearances as Dan Marino ??? Christ , I’m so depressed now.
Just look at this …
Jose and that club foot of his, about to fall over backwards …
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Just thinking ….
Has either Matt Leinart and Vince Young EVER played a game in really bad weather ?
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“THE MALICE OF BLASPHEMY” …
This is from NBC News
John Damon's father said the Red Sox made a huge mistake in letting his son go to the New York Yankees and that it could signal the beginning of another Curse in Boston.
"Mark it down: It's going to be another Babe Ruth," Jimmy Damon told The New York Daily News. "They sent John off just like they sent off Babe Ruth. It's going to be another big, big mistake. They made the biggest mistake of their lives."
"The Yankees are going to win it with John in there," he told the Daily News. "I think Boston will always remember the day they let him leave."
Is this guy hallucinating or what? ? I mean , the very thought of mentioning “ J O H N N Y D A M O N “ in the same sentence with Babe Ruth is sinful … doesn’t this nincumpoop know that most of the fans in New York don’t want his son on the Yanks anyway ? And … he tells us to “ Mark down “ his prediction. What a goof !!! … I’ll be sure to do just that , ASSHOLE … this way 80 years from now when I’m 130 years old I can dig up my notebook and marvel at your incredible stupidity.
Bottom line … Damon’s old man just wrote a check that his son will not be able to cash.
The Yanks will not win a championship with Damon on the team.
And bear in mind that George S. is a very impatient man.
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Las Vegas just loves Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno, and well they should. These two sneaky little con men have been pulling in truckloads of dough for sportsbooks for almost a half of a century. In 90% of their teams’ games the public gets it in the ass pipe. Now they’re going head to head in the Orange Bowl next Tuesday … Good !!! … If you’re thinking of playing this game my best advice is: Don’t ! But if you absolutely must , then moreso than ever, go against the majority.
For me it’s just one less game to handicap, rather than 2. With no exceptions, I throw out all games in which either of these pigs is involved.
What I wouldn’t give to have both their phone records for the days leading right up to gametime . How many times will they speak with one another.
Of course that’s impossible … they use pay phones and throw away cells.
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My vote for NFL Coach of the Year
Nick Saban
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“The Mysterious Sideline Cell Phone Conversation” ….
Jim Mora Jr. and his gang of nit wit coaches really screwed up last Saturday. After both The Falcons and Bucs blew OT field goals, Atlanta had the ball with 2 minutes remaining fairly deep in their own end. They could have eaten the clock by running the ball … and with a first down, forced a tie … kept their playoff hopes alive, and lived to play a meaningful game, at least for another week.
So what did they do on third and 2 ? Vick threw what amounted to a Hail Mary … very unnecessary … of course very incomplete … stopping the clock …. and Atlanta was then very forced to punt the ball.
Chris Simms then smartly led The Bucs down the field , and Atlanta was cooked.
Mora went freaking ballistic on the sidelines and then again at the post game press conference … unable to admit what everyone saw with their own eyes … just how his old man used to cower after his team got beat when they shouldn’t have.
Oddly enough , before the game Mora vowed that he was prepared for any and every situation confronting his team.
Jim - In truth there were only 3 possibilities to consider … everybody in the world knew the first 2 … You win , you’re still alive … you lose , you’re out.
But you totally ignored the third, and as it turned out, the most important one … with a tie , you remain eligible for playoff football.
How could you possibly have overlooked that?
Now to the strangest occurance of all … during the last hectic 2 minutes , the camera crew caught Mora running down the sidelines into a private area , with headset off and cell phone in his hand. He was talking on his cell and the announcers even commented about how unusual it is for a coach to do so. They even joked that it had better not be his wife on the line.
Who was he talking with and what about ? Closest guess is that he panicked and reached out to someone for advice as to what the playoff implications were in case of a tie … or someone called him to tell him he was blowing it.
In either event , by the time he was off the phone it was too late and the irreparable damage had been done.
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See you next week
Neil
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U-C-O-N-N = Uconn! Uconn! Uconn!
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