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In The Stars :
The bounce factor hit the board hard yesterday & evening . Many posters (myself included) went against public preception and rode the St. Louis Express all the way to the bank . Thats just the tip of the iceberg as I had 2 - 10* winners (one posted) and the other was :
Texas +137
Brown & Drese
While Texas has slowed a bit in the second half, they have still compiled a 60-50 mark for a whopping +$1,640. That places them third out of thirty teams in our MLB moneyline standings.
And this team is a human wrecking ball at home where they sit on a 31-17 record for +$1,415. Only two teams have filled their backers’ wallets with more cash at home than the Rangers.
Meanwhile, the Yankees will come in with a 71-40 mark for a surprisingly profitable +$745. We say “surprisingly” because no team epitomizes the definition of “public darling” more than the Bronx Bombers.
The Yanks being this far in the black is jaw dropping to us, but there is a very important caveat to this record. The Evil Empire is a bookie busting 43-15 for +$1,685 at Yankees Stadium.
Away from the Bronx, the Evil Empire is an overvalued 28-25 for -$920. This is an exceedingly important distinction, especially against a team like Texas that thrives in their own backyard.
We are not about to suggest that Texas holds a starting pitching edge today. Clearly, the Yankees Brown is more talented than the Rangers Drese. But this seems to be more than compensated for in the posted line. Have the oddsmakers forgotten how deadly the Rangers are at home compared to how “average” the Yankees are on the road? Have they forgotten about all of the other factors at play in this contest? We deep down of course know the oddsmakers are duly aware of these factors, but are posting a line that caters to public sentiment rather than reality. After all, that is the linesmakers job. Accordingly, our job is to fade the public and take the value.
Here are some of the facts. Texas is 14-8 when Drese starts this season and 8-2 when Drese starts at home? In terms of offense, the Rangers can hold their own against anyone, including the Yankees. Consider that the Rangers are putting up 6.4 runs per game at Ameriquest Field in Arlington where they are hitting .295 with a .351 OBP. Compare that to the Bronx Bombers who are putting up 5.6 runs per game on the road while hitting .266 with a .345 OBP.
As for the bullpen match-up, it is practically a wash. Texas’ pen sports a 3.67 ERA and 1.332 WHIP. They have converted 79% of their save opportunities along the way. The Yankees pen carries a 3.75 ERA and 1.316 WHIP. They have converted 80% of their save opportunities in 2004.
Given the price, the fundamental aspects above are enough to play Texas here. But there is also some fairly compelling numbers in our corner.
Among the many trends supporting the Rangers, it should note that they are an awesome 10-2 (+$890) at home vs. AL East opponents this year.
Additionally, Drese is 6-1 (+$540) against the AL East this year.
Note also that the Rangers are 13-4 (+$1,295) as a home underdog in 2004.
Furthermore, they are 23-10 (+$1,390) at home in night games and 10-2 (+$890) at home when the total is set between 8.5 and 10.
All said, the line here is absolutely ridiculous. The Rangers at this price are no doubt a long term winning proposition.
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Looks as though Kill Bill was right on the money here
Plus a very solid 8-1 (posted plays) here led to a very profitable day , add in the pup & pony plays and we are singing our favorite song with gusto again .
Its always nice to see the board in a good mood as I think it leads to favorable rationale and positive results overall .
Plays in a bit after I get some of my own work done , and I am overwhelmed by the amount of posters who all of a sudden seem to like the racing forum , even though 90% of them have never even posted there and add in the fact that 80% have never even been seen there ................................. strange indeed :confused: , or is it ?
G.L.
***MMM***
Texas +137
Brown & Drese
While Texas has slowed a bit in the second half, they have still compiled a 60-50 mark for a whopping +$1,640. That places them third out of thirty teams in our MLB moneyline standings.
And this team is a human wrecking ball at home where they sit on a 31-17 record for +$1,415. Only two teams have filled their backers’ wallets with more cash at home than the Rangers.
Meanwhile, the Yankees will come in with a 71-40 mark for a surprisingly profitable +$745. We say “surprisingly” because no team epitomizes the definition of “public darling” more than the Bronx Bombers.
The Yanks being this far in the black is jaw dropping to us, but there is a very important caveat to this record. The Evil Empire is a bookie busting 43-15 for +$1,685 at Yankees Stadium.
Away from the Bronx, the Evil Empire is an overvalued 28-25 for -$920. This is an exceedingly important distinction, especially against a team like Texas that thrives in their own backyard.
We are not about to suggest that Texas holds a starting pitching edge today. Clearly, the Yankees Brown is more talented than the Rangers Drese. But this seems to be more than compensated for in the posted line. Have the oddsmakers forgotten how deadly the Rangers are at home compared to how “average” the Yankees are on the road? Have they forgotten about all of the other factors at play in this contest? We deep down of course know the oddsmakers are duly aware of these factors, but are posting a line that caters to public sentiment rather than reality. After all, that is the linesmakers job. Accordingly, our job is to fade the public and take the value.
Here are some of the facts. Texas is 14-8 when Drese starts this season and 8-2 when Drese starts at home? In terms of offense, the Rangers can hold their own against anyone, including the Yankees. Consider that the Rangers are putting up 6.4 runs per game at Ameriquest Field in Arlington where they are hitting .295 with a .351 OBP. Compare that to the Bronx Bombers who are putting up 5.6 runs per game on the road while hitting .266 with a .345 OBP.
As for the bullpen match-up, it is practically a wash. Texas’ pen sports a 3.67 ERA and 1.332 WHIP. They have converted 79% of their save opportunities along the way. The Yankees pen carries a 3.75 ERA and 1.316 WHIP. They have converted 80% of their save opportunities in 2004.
Given the price, the fundamental aspects above are enough to play Texas here. But there is also some fairly compelling numbers in our corner.
Among the many trends supporting the Rangers, it should note that they are an awesome 10-2 (+$890) at home vs. AL East opponents this year.
Additionally, Drese is 6-1 (+$540) against the AL East this year.
Note also that the Rangers are 13-4 (+$1,295) as a home underdog in 2004.
Furthermore, they are 23-10 (+$1,390) at home in night games and 10-2 (+$890) at home when the total is set between 8.5 and 10.
All said, the line here is absolutely ridiculous. The Rangers at this price are no doubt a long term winning proposition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Looks as though Kill Bill was right on the money here
Plus a very solid 8-1 (posted plays) here led to a very profitable day , add in the pup & pony plays and we are singing our favorite song with gusto again .
Its always nice to see the board in a good mood as I think it leads to favorable rationale and positive results overall .
Plays in a bit after I get some of my own work done , and I am overwhelmed by the amount of posters who all of a sudden seem to like the racing forum , even though 90% of them have never even posted there and add in the fact that 80% have never even been seen there ................................. strange indeed :confused: , or is it ?
G.L.
***MMM***
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