Everything You Want To Know About 2nd Half Betting-nfl Style

[linemover]

I think that it's time I contribute something to this forum. Here's an interesting read I found at another forum on 2nd half betting...

PART 1: GENERAL THOUGHTS

Just as there are "key" numbers is sides betting and in game totals, there are also key numbers in second-half totals. The key numbers are as follows: 17, 20, and 24.

What do I mean by a "key" number? What this means is -- the point total will land on these three numbers more often than any other. This is important because a line move from 18 to 17.5 is not nearly as significant as a line move from 17 to 16.5. You must look closely at games where the totals are a half-point off of key numbers -- such as 16.5, 17.5, 19.5, 20.5, 23.5 and 24.5

The most common total points scored in the second-half is 17.

Here's a breakdown of the most common point totals for the second-half, along with the percentages of how often this occurs:

17 -- 9.6 percent

21 -- 7.0 percent

10 -- 6.9 percent

24 -- 6.6 percent

14 -- 6.4 percent

13 -- 6.0 percent

MYTH: One myth is that games tend to go opposite in the second-half of how they went in the first-half. Many bettors believe if a game is high scoring in the first -half to bet UNDER in the second-half. The opposite is also widely believed. Statistics show this is simply not true. According to data from 1981 through 1998, the second-half REPEATS the same scoring pattern more often than not. The margin is very small, as 51.9 percent of games REPEAT, and 47.3 percent SWITCH.



HALTIME BETTING ANGLE #1

Bet the dog when the favored team is favored by more points in the second half than in the game itself.

This commonly occurs when the dog is blowing out the favorite, pulling off a "shocking" upset at halftime. Many bettors have a knee-jerk reaction and automatically go with the favorite in this spot to rebound big in the second half, which is a mistake.

Let's say the Rams are playing the Panthers on the road and Carolina is ahead 21-3 at halftime (we'll say the Rams committed several turnovers). The Rams are a 9-point favorite and are favored in the second half by 10 points. The Panthers are the play here in the second half, especially since they are a home dog. Now, they are confident. They are at home in front of the home fans. And, they can make their season with a huge upset win over their rivals. Here are the results of this trend during three different trial periods:

1998 season -- 80 percent winners

1994-98 seasons -- 60 percent winners

1981-98 seasons -- 56.8 percent winners



HALTIME BETTING ANGLE #2

When one team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.

This trend is even stronger when the road team is ahead. What happens is this -- the winning team gets much more conservative on offense and rushes more than passes. This eats up clock time. The winning team can also bring in 5-6 defensive backs, since it knows the opponent will be passing more often. However, the opponent, which is losing badly and getting embarrassed sometimes will revert to fundamentals (i.e. "let's get one score first, then worry about playing catch up"). This happens often in games where the starting QB has gone down with an injury in the first half. Furthermore, if the winning team has the ball with under 5 minutes to play, they will often drive down the field and kneel at the opponent's goal line, instead of crashing in for another score. This means that anywhere from 1-5 minutes out of 30 minutes is wiped out so far as scoring chances. Finally -- in blowout games, field goals become less likely, since the losing team needs touchdowns to get back in the game. Instead of kicking a 33-yard field goal the losing team will often go for it on 4th down and goal or 4th and long. Odds are, the team usually will not convert or score. That puts the other team deep in it's own territory to start the next drive. Tick Tick Tick.

Here are the results of this trend over the two years that it was tracked by Mr. Granowski:

1998 -- 21 UNDERS vs. 13 OVERS (61.8 percent)

1997 -- 24 UNDERS vs. 10 OVERS (70.6 percent)



FIRST-HALF SCORING (TOTALS)

Let's look at some key numbers for first-half wagering, and try to determine which line openings and moves are more significant than others.



The most common number of points scored in the first-half of NFL games is 17. This is followed by 13, 20, and 24. Football is the only major sport that includes KEY numbers, because of the numerical combinations that are most likely to occur. For instance, if 17 points were scored in the first half, you can be almost certain that the halftime score is either 17-0, 14-3, or 10-7. This has some very important carry-over effects into the second-half -- which I will get into a bit later.

Here's a breakdown of the most common number of points scored in the first-half:

17 -- 9 percent of all games

13 -- 8 percent of all games

20 -- 7.9 percent of all games

24 -- 7.3 percent of all games

Judging by these figures, you should be wary of laying a half point on either side of these key numbers in the first-half. For instance, if you expect a low-scoring first-half and want to bet UNDER, 17.5 is a much stronger total to go UNDER than 16.5. That extra point means you pick up 9 percent of value. With 20 and 24, the same holds true. It is generally advisable (all other factors being equal) to bet OVER 23.5 and UNDER 24.5. The half point can play a really big role, when there is only 30-minutes of football to be played.



Most totals (for halves) fall somewhere in the 17 to 24 range. A very small number of games may have a first-half totals set at 16.5 or less (when there are two dominant defenses, or inclement weather). A few games have totals set at 24.5 and higher (usually Rams' games and teams with explosive offenses playing at home).

The actual average number of points scored in the first-half is 20.8



SECOND-HALF SCORING (TOTALS)

Here's a question: What do you think is higher scoring, the first-half or the second-half? I think most people would say the second-half. Many people think that since at least one of the teams gets desperate in the closing minutes of a game, more scoring is likely to happen. There is also the general view that it takes a series or two for the offense to get into the flow of the game and for the quarterback and receivers to establish a rhythm. Finally, there is the idea that both teams are fatigued at the end of a game, which favors offensive players who know their routes and intentions. It's very difficult for a tired defense to react.



I was surprised to learn that second-halves are slightly lower scoring than first-halves. It took me awhile to think about it, but the reasons for this now seem very clear. As I stated in "Halftime Betting Angle #2," one of the teams will not be as interested in scoring points -- as burning off clock time. If the team that's ahead has the ball in opponent's territory in the closing minutes, they will run off clock time, instead of running a wide-open offense. Also, field goals become less likely if the losing team needs touchdowns to get back to even. These factors contribute towards making the second-half slightly lower scoring than the first-half:

Average number of points scored in the first-half -- 20.8

Average number of points scored in the second-half -- 19.5

Here's a breakdown of the most common number of points scored in the second-half:

17 -- 9.6 percent of all games

21 -- 7 percent of all games

24 -- 6.6 percent of all games

14 -- 6.4 percent of all games

13 -- 6 percent of all games

Here is a powerful concept that you MUST remember if you have any interest in betting second-halves:

When compared with totals posted by oddsmakers, second-half point totals go UNDER 50.1 percent of the time based on the data. This might not seem important, but add the fact that PUSHES also occur 3.5 percent of the time. This translates to only 46.4 percent OVERS in the second-half over a 17-year period! So, this is a directional signpost that doesn't necessarily prove that betting UNDERS is profitable, but is sure does show that betting second-half OVERS is a sure way to lose money. if you are betting a second-half OVER, you better have a damn good reason!



THE AVERAGE ODDSMAKERS TOTAL:

The average second-half total posted by oddsmakers is 20.2 However, since second-halves produce only 19.5 point on average, this means there is a difference of .7 points. That fraction of a point might seem insignificant, but if you can pick up a half-point here or there off of key numbers (17, 20, 24, etc.), you clearly have value. You are not only getting .7 points in value by betting the UNDER, but you have the hook off a key number. Betting UNDER on totals of 17.5 and 20.5 would be excellent examples of this.

I am not suggesting to play UNDERS across the board. Nor am I suggesting to always bet the hard side of a key number. If a second-half total of 19.5 is posted, linesmakers are doing this for a reason. However, in a climate where OVERS seem to be the prevailing attitude, and given the shift upwards on totals over the actual point average, you should be playing more UNDERS than OVERS.



SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #3

This is closely related to the previous Angle (#2) But, it's even stronger. When the road team is leading at halftime by 16+ points, the UNDER occurs 60.5 percent in the second-half. OVERS occur only 34.9 percent of the time. It doesn't matter if the road team is favored or the dog. This happens for the reasons previously explained. But it's even stronger when the road team is winning big. A good example of this angle occurred when the Rams played at Detroit last season. The Rams were up big at halftime on the road in a Monday night game. In the second half, the Rams offense took it easy, not wanting to make things any worse of the home team. Meanwhile, the Rams defense continued to play with pride and was shooting for a shutout. They achieved the shutout win and the second half went UNDER easily.

Another angle somewhat related to the blowout theory is to consider that IF THE HOME TEAM IS WINNING BY LESS THAN 16 POINTS, the UNDER still comes in 52.6 percent of the time. This angle is not worth betting alone, but it's important to know that this means the OVER cashes only 43.4 percent of the time when the home team is leading by 16 or less points at the half. Those are horrible percentages.



SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #4

This might be the most powerful angle on the entire page. I will admit that I have not used this angle myself (since I just recently became aware of it) -- so I want to confess that I am on new territory here. Everything with this angle lines up perfectly -- the past history, the key numbers concept, and the logic. It is so powerful, in fact, that I considered keeping this private because I know other sites will cut and paste this angle and tout it as their own.

Again, I credit Mr. Granowski for running the necessary data. However, unless I am mistaken he did not highlight this eye-catching statistic from comparing the points scored in first-half to the eventual points scored in the second-half. Yes, indeed -- the type of game you see in one half is likely to be the type of game you will see in the next.



When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)

(17-year results)

116 OVERS

150 UNDERS

56.3 percent UNDERS



When 13 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half

(17-year results)

132 OVERS

167 UNDERS

55.8 percent UNDERS

Interesting enough -- most of the other points scored (first-half) totals were about a 50-50 split. So, why are the games where 13 or 17 points scored in the first-half MORE LIKELY to go UNDER the total in the second-half than average?

First, oddsmakers are probably going to post a total slightly higher than 17 for the second half. If 13 points were scored in the first-half, it's unlikely to see anything less than 17 (although you will see 16 and 16.5 occasionally). This let's you capture the 17, the most common number to come up in half totals. If a game which was expected to be high scoring produces only 13 or 17 points, oddmakers may also over-react and expect an explosion to occur in the second-half. You will often see totals in the 20s when just 13 points were scored in the first-half.

If 13 or 17 points were scored, it usually means it's a CLOSE game where one misstep can cost the team the win. It means the score at halftime is probably either 7-6, 10-3, or 10-7. It’s a one possession ballgame. Under these circumstances, coaches and offensive coordinators are reluctant to take chances. They want a long sustained drives to take the lead -- or ball control to keep the lead. They value field goals and will gear the offense towards picking up 3-points -- which can be critical in a 10-7 type of game. They are not at all interested in airing out the offense and risking what is currently a very close contest. These factors contribute to UNDERS occurring in the second half.



SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #5

The converse of the argument above occurs with two possible OVER bets in the second-half, when conditions are right. Although this angle is not as strong (and not as statistically reliable, since there are far fewer trials), it still deserves being mentioned.



When 23 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)

(17-year results)

74 OVERS

52 UNDERS



58.7 percent OVERS



When 30 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)

(17-year results)

45 OVERS

37 UNDERS

54.8 percent OVERS

(An interesting thing was to compare results for 23 versus 24. One would think the results would be much the same. But when 24 points are scored, UNDERS prevail 116-113 -- so the kink in the 23 and 30 might be a key)

What I mean by "the kink" is that if 23 points were scored in the first-half, it usually means two touchdowns and three field goals. That's FIVE scores were made in 30 minutes. That's a lot of yardage and ball movement for one half. By contrast, the 24 may mean only 4 scoring possessions -- so while the actual points scored was HIGHER, the offenses may have racked up more yardage and are better primed for an OVER when 23 points are scored. This is my theory -- so I take what I say with a grain of sand. However, if you combine this with the fact that the number 30 also produces significantly more OVERS than UNDERS (and 30 is a close cousin to 23 -- given the scoring multiples), I'll stand on this hypothesis.

What's interesting is that NO OTHER first-half totals from 9 through 32 produced a profit for second-half OVERS -- except 26 (a rare occurrence given the number of trials but still a 30-22 edge for OVERS). Not surprisingly, 26 is semi-related to 23 as it probably means a game of many field goals. For OVER plays, 23 and 30 clearly stood out from the crowd.



SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #6

This angle is closely related to the previous two, but is more focused to try and identify a higher percentage of UNDERS and OVERS based on first-half results.

Let's take a look at games which are expected to be low scoring. By "low scoring" we'll take game totals set at 38 or less. This means that oddsmakers initially expected the game to be below average in scoring, which has ramifications for halftime betting.

Let's look again at the key number -- 17.



When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game totals is 38 or lower, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)

(17-year results)

52 UNDERS

22 OVERS

70.2 percent UNDERS

Note that while the 17-point first half goes UNDER 56.3 percent on all games, the percentages are even higher when we narrow this down to games with totals at 38 or less. In fact, we get a 15 percent increase (based on 74 trials, I deem these results to be statistically significant)

On all games where the game total is 38 or lower, the second-half goes UNDER 52.4 percent while the OVER cashes only 47.6 percent of the time.



SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #7

Now, here's the converse angle. However, before relaying it to you, I must admit that this does not have quite enough trials to be beyond possible scrutiny. Note that games which are expected to be offensive shootouts -- based on game totals 42.5 and above tend to go OVER in the second-half when 21 points were scored in the first half.



When 21 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game total is 42.5 or higher, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)

(17-year results)

16 UNDERS

29 OVERS

64.4 percent OVERS

I believe this happens for a good reason. First, 21 first-half points probably means a halftime score of 21-0 or 14-7. It also means touchdowns have been reasonably easy to come by. Furthermore, the losing team will be much more interested in 7 points than a field goal. It also means that if the team in the lead goes ahead by 14 points, the losing team will panic and shoot for the end zone.

The only other first-half point total which produced significant data was 23.



When 23 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half.

(17-year results)

22 UNDERS

38 OVERS

63.3 percent OVERS

[thatsrich]

Good Read

Thanks for the contri........

[The Lovedoc]

blake

Whattya talking about..you always contribute to this forum..Keep up the good work buddy

[trap]

Would like to add!


Angle #1 also works very well (70-72%) for all
of us NCAAB lovers, as in my 2 plays yesterday.

Wager Type: Spread (or run line)
Wager Status: Win
Risk / To Win Amount: (USD) Accepted 11/27/2004 2:07 PM
Amount Paid:

Sport / Period: NCAA Basketball / 2nd Half
Line:
Wright State 11/27/2004 1:00:01 PM - EST
+2½ -110


And



Wager Type: Spread (or run line)
Wager Status: Win
Risk / To Win Amount: (USD) Accepted 11/27/2004 4:01 PM
Amount Paid:

Sport / Period: NCAA Basketball / 2nd Half
Line:
Rider 11/27/2004 3:00:01 PM - EST
+3 -110


This also works for totals plays (well above 55%)
with different #'s

Hope this helps a bit!

[rented mule]

Something to keep an eye on today, as far as second half bets go.

The Jets have shut out their opponent, in the second half, 4 times this season. 3 of those have been on the road. As a long suffering Jets fan, I think they finally have a D-Coordinator who can make adjustments, on the fly, at halftime.

Being that they are facing Shaun King, today, i'm going to take a hard look at this one.

[S49erman]

thats some good info there! Thanks!

[TWOLIP]

Still a good read

[frankb03]

Great stuff. Thanks for sharing

[frankb03]

I didn't realize this was a thread from last season. Thanks for bumping.

[frankb03]

Unfortunately my data doesn't have 2nd half total lines. I'd like to add to SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #4

When exactly 17 first half points are scored and the game total is 37 or higher the game goes UNDER 72% of the games. I'd have to think that extends to 2nd half totals.

[surveyor]

Here is a updated version(still a couple of years old) with a little insight and credit to Nollan Dalla a well know vegas gambler who came up with the angles.

By Nolan Dalla

Ten NFL Halftime Angles:
Back to the Wishing Well for One Last Season

One of the major drawbacks of writing a monthly column on sports handicapping is giving away “trade secrets.” These so-called secrets are discoveries that have been uncovered, often through painstaking investigation and research. Most public handicappers are reluctant to publicize their most-prized findings, because – once they become widely known – their value decreases as public awareness increases and oddsmakers start to make line adjustments. In essence, what this means is -- we can’t make as much money once the best angles are known publicly.
I discovered and developed the following ten halftime angles prior to the 2001 NFL regular season. I wrote about them in columns for Casino Player, and elsewhere. A year later, these same angles were posted all over the Internet (often without attribution or permission). By the 2003 regular season, oddsmakers had begun to adjust halftime lines based on some of these angles and (not surprisingly) the winning percentages decreased.
Nevertheless, the halftime (also called “second-half”) angles continue to perform well and make a profit for those who are inclined to bet NFL halftimes. Frankly, I have no idea why more gamblers don’t make halftime bets. Think of it this way: Would you rather make a wager after seeing how both teams are performing that same day, or bet blindly without the benefit of this information? If you are really interested in making money betting on pro football, the answer should be obvious:


HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #1
Bet the underdog when the favored team (for the game) is favored by more points in the second half than in the game itself.
Explanation: This makes perfect sense. Why would any team be favored by more points in the second half than the game itself? It commonly occurs when the underdog is blowing out the favorite, pulling off a "shocking" upset at halftime. Many bettors have a knee-jerk reaction and automatically go with the favorite in this spot to rebound big in the second half, which is a big mistake. Let’s look at the numbers:
2002 Results: 8-10-3 (44 percent wins)
2003 Results: 6-1-0 (86 percent wins)
20-Year Results: 56 percent wins
Comments: This continues to be one of the best moneymakers of any halftime angle over the past twenty seasons. However, note that there were far fewer plays in 2003 (just 7) than 2002 (21 plays). I attribute this decline in number of plays to oddsmakers catching on to this angle and adjusting the numbers. It will be interesting to see how many opportunities we have to bet this angle in 2004.


HALTIME BETTING ANGLE #2
When one team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.
Explanation: What happens is this -- the team with the lead gets more conservative offensively and rushes the ball more than it passes. This consumes lots of clock time. The leading team can also bring in multiple defensive backs, since it knows the opponent will be passing more often. In blowout games, field goals become far less likely, since the losing team needs touchdowns to get back in the game. Instead of kicking a short field goal the losing team will often go for it on fourth down. Odds are, the team usually will not convert or score. These factors all support a low-scoring second half.
2002 Results: 24-12-1 (66 percent wins)
2003 Results: 20-14-1 (59 percent wins)
20-Year Results: 60 percent wins
Comments: In 2003, this angle went through a bumpy ride in the later half of the season, as it became more widely-known. Despite this, 20 wins and 14 losses still represents a 59 percent win rate, slightly under the 20-year results of 60 percent wins. I give this angle at least one more year before it bites the dust.


HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #3
When the road team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.
Explanation: This is closely related to the previous angle (#2). But, it's even stronger. It doesn't matter if the road team is favored or not. This happens for the reasons previously explained. But it's even stronger when the road team is winning by a wide margin. The home fans often become so upset they turn on the home team and the result is a dull, low-scoring second half.
2002 Results: 10-2-1 (83 percent wins)
2003 Results: 10-5 (66 percent wins)
20-Year Results: 63 percent wins
Comments: This is a subset of the previous angle and is a consistent moneymaker almost every year. Last year, this angle produced 66 percent wins. This continues to be one of the best halftime betting angles ever -- and now since it's been released I fear it will eventually decline as more bettors pound the under in games where this angle applies.


SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #4
When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, bet UNDER in the second-half.
Explanation: Why are the games where 17 points (exactly) were scored in the first-half more likely to go UNDER the total in the second-half? First, oddsmakers tend to post totals slightly higher than “17” for the second half in these games. This is a high total in a close low-scoring game, where play calling should be conservative. A “one possession” game means one mistake can cost a team the victory. Under these circumstances, coaches are reluctant to take chances. They want long, sustained drives -- and ball control to keep the lead. These teams value field goals and will gear the offense towards picking up three-points -- which can be critical in a 10-7 type of game. Teams are not at all interested in airing out the offense and risking what is currently a very close contest.
2002 Results: 14-3-1 (82 percent wins)
2003 Results: 5-12 (29 percent wins)
Twenty-Year Results: 56 percent wins
Comments: 2003 was the worst season ever for this angle, which normally hits about 56 percent. I attribute the bad performance to a statistical anomaly. I'll keep this on the recommendation list for another year and see what happens.
__________________

SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #5
When 13 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, bet UNDER in the second-half.
Explanation: Just as in games where 17-points were scored in the first-half, “13” points means the defenses are playing very well. First halves with 13 points scored almost always means one touchdown and two field goals – not exactly a scoring frenzy. Again – offenses tend to be more conservative in games like this and are more likely to play for first downs and field goals.
2002 Results: 13-11 (54 percent wins)
2003 Results: 4-13 (23 percent wins)
Twenty-Year Results: 55 percent wins
Comments: Another angle that performs well over a 20-ear period, which hit the rocks in 2003. Games that were either 10-3 or 7-6 a halftime (the most common scores for this angle to apply) are worth a look at least one more season.


HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #6:
When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game total is 38 or lower, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half.
Explanation: Note that while the 17-point first-half angle goes UNDER 56 percent of the time in the second-half (see Angle #4), the percentages are even higher when we narrow this down to games with game totals at 38 or less. In fact, we get a 15 percent increase (based on 66 trials over the past twenty years. Consider this additional fact: In all games where the game total is 38 or lower, the second-half went UNDER 52.4 percent of the time while the OVER cashed only 47.6 percent. So, games expected to be low-scoring do tend to go UNDER in the second-half by their very nature.
2002 Results: 3-0 (100 percent wins)
2003 Results: 3-3 (50 percent wins)
Twenty-Year Results: 69 percent wins
Comments: This was a break-even angle in 2003. Considering how poorly Angle #4 performed last season, it’s remarkable that this related angle hit 50 percent.


HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #7:
When 21 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game total is 42.5 or higher, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (Caveat: The game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by 15 or more points)
Explanation: Note that games which are expected to be offensive shootouts -- based on game totals 42.5 and higher -- tend to go OVER in the second-half when exactly 21 points were scored in the first half. This happens for a good reason. First, 21 first-half points probably means a halftime score is 14-7. It also means touchdowns have been reasonably easy to come by. Furthermore, the losing team will be much more interested in scoring 7 points than kicking a field goal. It also means that if the team in the lead goes ahead by 14 points, the losing team will panic and go for the end zone on every drive. This helps the OVER in the second-half.
2002 Results: 5-0 (100 percent wins)
2003 Results: 3-2 (60 percent wins)
Twenty-Year Results: 64 percent wins
Comments: This angle went 3-2. Not many plays, but it always seems to produce a unit or two of profit each year.


HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #8
When 23 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (Caveat: The game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by 15 or more points)
Explanation: An interesting part of my research was comparing results for games with 23 versus 24 first-half points. One would think the second-half results would be about the same. But when 24 points are scored, UNDERS prevail slightly. The kink in the number “23” (and 30, also) are worth investigating. What I mean by "kink" is that if 23 points were scored in the first-half, it usually means two touchdowns and three field goals. That's five scores in 30 minutes. That's means a lot of yardage and ball movement for one half. By contrast, 24 means only 4 scoring possessions -- so while the actual points scored was HIGHER, the offenses may have racked up more yardage and are better primed for an OVER when 23 points were scored. If you combine this with the fact that the number 30 also produces significantly more OVERS than UNDERS (and 30 is a close cousin to 23 -- given the scoring multiples), I'll stand on this hypothesis.
2002 Results: 2-8-1 (20 percent wins)
Twenty-Year Results: 56 percent wins
Comments: After a dismal performance in 2002, I did not play this angle in 2003. However, it may be worth looking at for at least another year based on the overall winning percentages.


HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #9
When 30 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (Caveat: The game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
Explanation: More on the first-half scoring numbers “23” and “30” -- what's interesting is that no other first-half totals from 9 through 32 produced a profit for second-half OVERS -- except 26 (a very rare occurrence). This is not surprising, since 26 is related to 23 as it probably means a game of many field goals.
2002 Results: 3-1 (75 percent wins)
Twenty-Year Results: 56 percent wins
Comments: This angle does not produce many plays, but has done well over the years. I did not track the angle last season/ I’m bringing it back for an encore in 2004.


HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #10 (NFL PLAYOFFS ONLY)
When 16 points or less are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half.
Explanation: In the past twenty years of playoff games, second-half scoring went OVER and UNDER about an equal number of times -- with a slight lean to the UNDER -- 52.5 percent of the time. However, when the first-half was very low scoring, the second-half score was likely to go UNDER as well. Playoff games are more intense than regular season games, and the best defenses often rise to the occasion. Hence there is more consistency with second-half UNDERS in low scoring games.
Twenty-Year Results: 68 percent wins
Comments: Let's break this down further:

(First-Half Points Scored -- Second-Half Result)

9 points scored or less -- 9 UNDERS / 3 OVERS
10 points scored -- 5 UNDERS / 5 OVERS
12 points scored -- 1 UNDER / 1 OVER
13 points scored -- 11 UNDERS / 1 OVER **
14 points scored -- 2 UNDER / 1 OVER
16 points scored -- 3 UNDERS / 2 OVERS

**Note the staggering 11-1 record for UNDERS in playoff games when the first-half produces (exactly 13 points). If this is not a monster angle to play, I don't know what is.

CONCLUSIONS: In 2002, these angles went a combined 70-36-7, or 66 percent wins. The next year in 2003, the win percentage declined to 56-47-1, or 55 percent wins. In all of my work in sports handicapping, I am most proud of these angles. Sad to say, these angles may eventually become a victim of their own success. I predict we probably have one more year of profits before they become obsolete.

[frankb03]

This might come in handy today. Thanks Blake. I'm going to bookmark this thread


GL TODAY

[Tigger]

Why should I even post my 2nd half plays now??? You're just giving away all my stuff. Great read buddy, and yes MANY of these angles work... I use most of them myself.

~~~ Tigger

[Spearit]

I saved it myself and thanx very much Blake for your contribution

[Press Coverage]

Great post.....3-1 for the day today.....hope everyone else cashed......


Angle #4: KC/NYJ under 21.5 ----- W
Angle #7: CAR/NO over 21.5 ----- W
Angle #9: SF/STL over 21.5 ----- W
Angle #1: SF +7.5 ----- L