Smart Money book I am reading Please add

[st bobby]

Ok the book I am reading and a nice tidbit I picked up on. A sportsbook manager said he always knows when he is gonna take a beating. Its when the lines starts moving down. Saying the sharps are on the underdog. I am gonna start watching this. I also have a 3 pt cutoff on line moves. When it becomes 3 or more I bet against it. Also be sure to investigate that the line movement is not because of weather or an injury. I Don't know how much the line movement matters with an injury. I have had several winners with the movement and injury. So I don't really consider that much.

[BettorsChat]

So if a line moves 3 or more points your going to play the dog?

Did you upload that picture? Small really can't see it.

[CheCheBoFumbe]

So the sportsbook manager thought all the smart money was on Fresno since Rice line dropped from -2 to even? Seems to me the smart money wasn't very smart and the book made a killing instead of getting killed.

Never knew why people think the "Smart Money" is always right. There are a very small percentage of people who make a living just gambling. Most end up broke in the long run. Sure they may have more information than the average Joe but in the end your laying money on a bunch of 18, 19, 20 year olds that do stupid stuff at critical times resulting in many times deciding the outcome of a bet being a winner or loser. The Pros are just as stupid at times.

Merry Christmas Bobby. Don't make to much out of the smart money your just as good and even better than most of the smart money guys.

[st bobby]

BC yes I always go against a 3 pt move. Say a team is favored by 4. Then the week goes and is bet up to 7. I take the 7 points. Pretty solid theory and confirmed in this book. I did upload that pic. It was a pic of me with the 3 Heisman trophy winners from Nebraska I ran into at the airport. Johnny Rodgers, Mike Rozier, and Eric Crouch.

[st bobby]

So the sportsbook manager thought all the smart money was on Fresno since Rice line dropped from -2 to even? Seems to me the smart money wasn't very smart and the book made a killing instead of getting killed.

Never knew why people think the "Smart Money" is always right. There are a very small percentage of people who make a living just gambling. Most end up broke in the long run. Sure they may have more information than the average Joe but in the end your laying money on a bunch of 18, 19, 20 year olds that do stupid stuff at critical times resulting in many times deciding the outcome of a bet being a winner or loser. The Pros are just as stupid at times.

Merry Christmas Bobby. Don't make to much out of the smart money your just as good and even better than most of the smart money guys.

Exactly. The thing that has opened my eyes a ton is the pros they only hit 60%. But they do it all year. They are consistently hitting 60%. That is the difference. Also the book points out that they intentionally bet the opposite sides of games to keep the books from knowing what their actual plays are. Some books take the plays and bet them all over. So they throw these in to keep them honest. That happened a lot.

[st bobby]

In the Fresno St case. I think that they were on Rice early in the week. They went from -1.5 to +2.5. Then before the game they bet Fresno +2.5 trying to get the middle. Which of course they lost. Say for instance they bet 22,000 on Rice +1.5. Then They bet 22,000 on Fresno +2.5. That's a 3 point middle. So you are risking 2k to win 40k.

[st bobby]

Washington, D.C.: I say this every year but I never do it, bet on every single underdog in the first round of the NCAA Tourney. From studying the last two years of the tourney over 50 percent of the underdogs cover. What do you think about this strategy?

Michael Konik: I endorse it.

If you bet the dogs indiscriminately, you'll eke out a small win against the juice. If you do it discriminatively, you'll earn long-term profits.

[st bobby]

Alexandria, Va.: Can you comment on the article Wharton economist Justin Wolfers wrote regarding point shaving? He looked at over 9,200 NCAA games where one team was favored by at least 12 points. In those games, the spread was only covered 48 percent of the time. In all other games, the spread was covered right around 50 percent of the time. Given the large sample, this difference is small but significant.

Michael Konik: The statistics, however, don't suggest to me point shaving. They suggest that there's some serious value in betting dogs around those numbers!

[KazDog]

My take on Fresno St is that Fresno opened -1.5 and the during the weeks leading up to the game the public bet on Rice(The much better record) and the bookmakers drop the line down to Rice -2.5.

In the day leading up to the game, the line moved back to a pickem, which indicated that large money(Wise guy, Smart money) must have been bet on Fresno driving the line back in the other direction.

In my eyes, the wise guys got beat or they tried for the middle as Bobby stated and got beat there too. Sometimes the public wins. They always gotta play the game and most times they aren't thinking about the line when the game is being played. I say most times because I think some coaches do think about the line. I remember the Ohio St coach kicking a field goal with less than a minute left in the game and he was up 30 points or something like that and Ohio St magically covered by like 1. That was a few years back. I remember it being talked about on the gambling forums.

[jcindaville]

What's the name of the book?

[st bobby]

I agree Kaz.

JC the name of the book is Smart Money by Michael Konik. He was a secret better for a syndicate called the brain trust. Not named in the book but ran by Billy Walters. He was winning so much the casinos in vegas ran him out. Then he went offshore and did it till they ran him off. Then he used fake names and accounts. Its a great book. I highly suggest it. Ill tell you what I always dreamed of doing what he did. But I think twice of it now after this book. I just have to make myself just as good. And I will never be betting the money they did so I could hit 100% and the casinos wouldn't care. LOL

[Udog]

This is interesting. Thanks, Bobby! I'll read Smart Money.