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**Udog** · 10-17-2014, 08:35 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Some NFL trends to ponder with Week 7 upon us........

-- Chargers covered four of last five as a home favorite.

-- Giants covered six of last eight as a divisional underdog.

-- Denver is 13-5 in last 18 games as a home favorite.

-- Dolphins are 5-9 in last 14 games as a road underdog.

-- St Louis is 6-2 in last eight games as a divisional home dog.

-- Washington covered twice in its last seven home games.

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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend........

13) Chiefs-Chargers is an interesting game out west; Bolts have dominated series lately, but their two wins over KC last year were both by a FG.

12) Baylor lost 70-63 the last time they visited Morgantown; they beat WVU 73-42 LY in Waco. Bears gained over 1,500 total yards in the two games. Not sure why, but WVU coach Holgorsen has cooler full of Red Bull on his sidelines during games, just for him.

11) Bengals are 0-1-1 since their bye, which came at a bad time, when they were 3-0. Colts won their last four games after an 0-2 start. This will be a fun game.

10) UCLA is favored at Cal, but Bruins lost their last seven visits to Berkeley, the last five by 14+ points. If they lose this week, especially with UCLA coming off a loss, it’ll be a major upset.

9) Falcons’ owner Arthur Blank was quoted this week as being unhappy with his team’s 2-4 start, which makes sense, but given how dreadful Atlanta’s defense has been, will heads roll if Atlanta doesn’t make the playoffs this year?

8) Royals-Giants World Series will be first time since 1918 (in a non-strike year) that neither World Series team will have won 90 regular season games. Royals are like Colorado was a few years ago, getting very hot at the perfect time.

7) Saints are 0-10 vs spread in last ten road games; they visit defensively-stout Detroit, which is struggling on offense with star WR Calvin Johnson hobbled.

6) Last three Nebraska-Northwestern games were decided by total of seven points; Wildcats collapsed at end of LY’s game, blowing big second half lead to Nebraska. Can they beat the Cornhuskers this year?

5) Dallas won its last five games; Murray has chance to be first RB ever to start season with seven 100+-yard games. Can Giants protect Eli? If not, this’ll be a long day for Big Blue.

4) Kentucky is improved, which is a good thing, seeing as they lost their last three visits to LSU by combined score of 118-7. Tigers are young and slowly getting better; you better get ‘em this year.

3) Carson Palmer leads the 4-1 Cardinals into Oakland, where he played in 2011-12. Rookie QB Carr played his best game in near-miss vs Chargers last week. This is a game the first-place Cardinals have to win, to stay ahead of favored 49ers/Seahawks.

2) Sure is a lot of drama around the Florida State program, kind of like UNLV’s old basketball teams; lot of drama, but they just keep on winning. Notre Dame gave up 43 points at home to North Carolina last week; what will Heisman Trophy winner Winston hang on them? What were the odds of a TE named O’Leary playing for FSU and not the Fighting Irish?

1) Patrick Willis won’t play when the 49ers visit Denver this week, bad news for a 49er defense playing on short week after their strong second half showing in St Louis. Broncos are 2-0 since their bye, scoring 72 points.

**Udog** · 10-17-2014, 08:36 AM

NBA Atlantic Division betting preview: Lack of elite teams opens up value

The Atlantic Division hasn't exactly been the crown jewel of the NBA in recent years. While that's unlikely to change in 2014-15, there is the potential for an entertaining race - and plenty of betting value.

Here's a quick look at all five teams and where they stand entering the new campaign.

Boston Celtics (2013-14: 25-57 SU, 39-41-2 ATS)

Odds to win division: 26-1
Season win total: 26.5

Why bet the Celtics: The Celtics did a lot of good things in year one of the Brad Stevens era. With Rajon Rondo back in the mix, there's optimism that they could even be a little ahead of schedule in their rebuild. Few bettors will be looking to back the C's, and that should help add some value, particularly early in the season. Playing in the watered-down Atlantic Division doesn't hurt their cause either.

Why not bet the Celtics: Boston is still probably at least a year or two away from contending for a playoff spot. On most nights, backing the Celtics will likely turn out to be a lesson in frustration. Avery Bradley and Jared Sullinger made positive strides a year ago, but can they live up to higher expectations in 2014? If they can't, it could be another long year in Beantown.

Season win total pick: Under

Philadelphia 76ers (2013-14: 19-63 SU, 36-46 ATS)

Odds to win division: 101-1
Season win total: 15

Why bet the 76ers: Because everyone is expecting the tank project to continue, and that will undoubtedly lead to inflated lines on a nightly basis. It's easy to forget that the Sixers had last year's Rookie of the Year in Michael Carter-Williams. He wasn't the only young talented player that emerged in Philly. The building blocks are in place for the Sixers to at least play competitive basketball, even if wins might be difficult to come by.

Why not bet the 76ers: Do you really want to back a team that may or may not be tanking? It wasn't just talk a year ago, the Sixers legitimately threw in the towel on the season and started looking toward the future no more than four games into the campaign. This is still a team that lacks the depth to win the close games, and with so much youth on the roster, the poise isn't there either.

Season win total pick: Over

Toronto Raptors (2013-14: 48-34 SU, 46-33-3 ATS)

Odds to win division: 2-1
Season win total: 48.5

Why bet the Raptors: Despite an early postseason exit, there were so many positives to talk about in Toronto last season. The Raptors were one of the hardest-working teams in the league, built in the mold of head coach Dwane Casey, and there's little reason to expect anything different this year. Thanks to residing up north the Raptors still don't get the credit they probably deserve, and that leads to consistently soft lines.

Why not bet the Raptors: Could a letdown be in order? The Raptors aren't exactly accustomed to success as a franchise, and there's some concern that we'll see a hangover from last spring's disappointing series loss to the Nets. Kyle Lowry signed a big contract in the offseason, but will he be able to live up to the lofty expectations? Simply put, Toronto could be set up to fail this season.

Season win total pick: Under

Brooklyn Nets (2013-14: 44-38 SU, 42-40 ATS)

Odds to win division: 3-1
Season win total: 41.5

Why bet the Nets: An injection of youth can't hurt a team that certainly looked old at times a year ago. New head coach Lionel Hollins is an upgrade over Jason Kidd. In fact, Hollins looks like an excellent fit to get the most out of this roster. Jarrett Jack could prove to be an underrated offseason pick-up.

Why not bet the Nets: Losing Paul Pierce hurts. While his on-court performance may have regressed, he's still one of the best leaders in the game. Deron Williams and Brook Lopez will be relied upon heavily, but both have proven fragile, not to mention streaky. Kevin Garnett is still a big part of what the Nets do at both ends of the floor, and that might not be a positive at this stage of his career.

Season win total pick: Over

New York Knicks (2013-14: 37-45 SU, 38-44 ATS)

Odds to win division: 3-1
Season win total: 40.5

Why bet the Knicks: Phil Jackson has taken over as president of basketball operations leading many to believe that the Knicks are ready to ascend the Eastern Conference and return to respectability. Carmelo Anthony is locked in, and as long as he's healthy, he's capable of carrying this team on his shoulders. Derek Fisher should provide plenty of energy in his first year as head coach.

Why not bet the Knicks: Haven't we heard all of this optimism in Manhattan before? The Knicks have disappointed year after year, and who's to say that this is the campaign that breaks the cycle. Carmelo doesn't have a standout supporting cast around him, and the Knicks still seem to get everyone's best shot at Madison Square Garden.

Season win total pick: Under

**Udog** · 10-17-2014, 11:11 AM

MLB

Friday, October 17

Hudson: "I've been waiting for this for 16 years"

Tim Hudson is 39-years old, he is the active leader in wins (214) and he has never made it past the Division series until now.

"That's why I came to San Francisco, just for this moment," Hudson said during the Party that was the Giants locker room Thursday. "I've been waiting for this for 16 years."

Hudson has a 3.29 ERA during this postseason and San Fran has won both games he started.

Report: World Series to feature new umpires

The World Series umpire crew is going to feature four first time officials to the Fall Classic. Hunter Wendelstedt, Eric Cooper, Jim Reynolds and Jerry Meals will all call their first World Series according to ESPN.

Here is the list of all the reported crew members and their season numbers:

(Crew Chief) Jeff Kellogg: Home Team Record 13-15, Over/Under 13-15, Strike % 64.29
Ted Barrett: HT 17-15, O/U 13-16, K% - 63.38
Jeff Nelson: HT 19-13, O/U 11-19, K% 63.68
Hunter Wendelstedt: HT 16-14, O/U 11-15, K% 64.39
Eric Cooper: HT 15-16, O/U 14-14, K% 64.40
Jim Reynolds: HT 14-15, O/U 9-20, K% 64.35
Jerry Meals: HT 15-15, O/U 20-9, K% 63.97

Overall: HT 109-102, O/U 91-107, K% 64.02

Giants dominating World Series in recent years

The San Francisco Giants booked their third trip to the World Series in five seasons on a walk-off home run. Now that they've gotten to the Fall Classic, the Giants can look at their recent dominance for reassurance.

In San Fran's last two trips to the World Series ('10, '12) they have gone 8-1. Over those two series' the Giants have a run differential of +27 while averaging nearly six runs per game.

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Friday's Trends and Indexes - 10/17 (General News and Notes)

Friday's Trends and Indexes - 10/17 (General News and Notes)

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