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Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 10/16 (General News and Notes)

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  • Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 10/16 (General News and Notes)

    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    Some NFL trends to ponder with Week 7 upon us........

    -- Patriots covered eight of last 12 as a home favorite.

    -- Saints failed to cover their last ten road games.

    -- Bengals are 5-0-1 in last six games as a road underdog.

    -- Green Bay covered once in last seven non-divisional games.

    -- Falcons covered three of last eleven road games.

    -- Jaguars are 4-14 vs spread in last 18 home games.

    **********


    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Our bottom 5, top 8 in NFL..........

    32) Raiders—You start a rookie QB and before his career is five games old, you fire his head coach? How is this anything but incompetent management?

    31) Jaguars—They finally covered a spread this week, so there’s that. Jags have actually played better since Bortles has been the QB.

    30) Jets—By not cutting Michael Vick after he admitted to not being prepared to play, it appears to me they’ve given up the ship. Vick was supposed to be a mentor of sorts for Geno Smith, but now it is obvious he is just stealing money. If I owned the Jets, I'd clean house on December 29, the day after the season ends.

    29) Rams—Just win, baby. You are what you are and the Rams are 1-4, despite having runs of 21-0/21-0/14-0 in their last three games. There is talent here, but not much maturity and the upcoming schedule is tough.

    28) Titans—They beat Jacksonville at home by 2. With Charlie Whitehurst under center. In my fantasy league, the best available WRs are mostly Titans, because no one trusts their QB’s to get them the ball.

    8) Cardinals—Guy like Bruce Arians almost never got his chance to be an NFL head coach. Now that he has it in his early 60’s, he is making the most out of it. He is 14-7 as coach of the Redbirds, in a tough division.

    7) Patriots—Injury to Mayo is big blow to a defense; injury to Ridley means that Brady will have to throw more. Can his OL protect him enough?

    6) Colts—Won last four games after an 0-2 start, but four games with Titans/Jags won’t hurt either. Has any team ever had a more seamless transition from an all-time great at QB (Manning-to-Luck)?

    5) Bengals—They visit Indy this week, are 0-1-1 since their bye/3-0 start. Lose this week and that missed 36-yard FG at end of Carolina game is going to hurt more and more.

    4) Eagles—Chip Kelly is good for the NFL; he’s making other coaches think differently, which makes the game more interesting. How was this guy an assistant coach at New Hampshire for so long?

    3) Cowboys—Cue the mute buttons for Sunday night highlight shows, if Dallas wins. “The NFL is better when the Cowboys are good”; that was said on TV Sunday night and Jerry Jones didn’t say it, a guy on ESPN did. I want to puke, but that’s how people think.

    2) Broncos—How much $$ do you think Peyton Manning is worth? If a journeyman NBA player like Steve Kerr can donate $1M to U of Arizona, how much money must a megastar like Manning be worth?

    1) Chargers—Last NFL QB to wear a number in the 20’s? John Hadl, who was at his best as a Charger in late 60’s/early 70’s, throwing to Lance Alworth. Hadl was later Steve Young’s coach in the USFL with the LA Express.

  • #2
    NBA Central Division Betting Preview

    Chicago Bulls (2013-14: 48-34 SU, 41-40-1 ATS)

    Odds To Win Division: +140
    Season Win Total: 55

    Why Bet The Bulls: Chicago is loaded with talent, and they have a coach in Tom Thibodeau that gets the most out of his players. With a healthy Derrick Rose, the Bulls have the potential to make a run at the title. Chicago added Pau Gasol, Aaron Brooks, Doug McDermott, and Nikola Mirotic who will bolster Chicago’s offense. The Bulls always bring their defense under Thibodeau, and if the team avoids the injury bug, Chicago will be one of the best teams in the NBA this season.

    Why Not To Bet The Bulls: As mentioned above, the biggest obstacle Chicago must avoid is injuries. If history repeats itself, especially with Rose, all bets are off. The Bulls also have a tendency to wear down as the season goes on due to Thibodeau’s over usage, but that may be absent this season with the influx of depth. However, it’s still a concern, and it bears watching the minutes played by the Bulls’ starters.

    Season Win Total Pick: Over 55 Wins


    Cleveland Cavaliers (2013-14: 33-49 SU, 40-42 ATS)

    Odds To Win Division: -170
    Season Win Total: 58.5

    Why Bet The Cavaliers: LeBron James. One player makes a huge impact in the NBA, and the Cavaliers go from an also-ran to a championship contender with the return of LeBron. Cleveland also added Kevin Love who completes the most formidable duo in the NBA this season. And with future superstar Kyrie Irving forming an unmatched trio, there’s no question the Cavaliers are the best team on paper coming into this season.

    Why Not To Bet The Cavaliers: Cleveland’s offense may put-up record-breaking numbers with all the scoring punch they have, but their defense will be a key to this season. Cleveland’s bench is okay, and they’ll need to prevent opposing second units from out-scoring them. New head coach David Blatt comes with high accolades, but he’s inexperienced at the NBA level. Chemistry is also important in basketball, and it’s unknown how the team will mesh on and off the court.

    Season Win Total Pick: Over 58.5 Wins


    Detroit Pistons (2013-14: 29-53 SU, 35-46-1 ATS)

    Odds To Win Division: +5400
    Season Win Total: 36

    Why Bet The Pistons: New head coach Stan Van Gundy is a huge upgrade over the poor Detroit coaching staff of last season. Gundy’s presence alone will boost the Pistons by more than a few wins. Detroit also has one of the best young frontcourts in the league, led by Andre Drummond. The Pistons underachieved last season, but with a solid nucleus and good coaching, Detroit could easily eclipse the 40-win mark this season.

    Why Not To Bet The Pistons: Detroit is unlucky in that they have to play eight total games against the Bulls and Cavaliers. While the Pistons are strong in the paint, their weakness is perimeter shooting; they shot just 32.1% from three-point land last season. They signed sharpshooter Jodie Meeks in the off-season to address that issue, but he recently hurt his back and he’s slated to miss two months.

    Season Win Total Pick: Over 36 Wins


    Indiana Pacers (2013-14: 56-26 SU, 38-43-1 ATS)

    Odds To Win Division: +1700
    Season Win Total: 33.5

    Why Bet The Pacers: Indiana was the best team over the first half of last season. But the Pacers ended the season on a down note, and because of that, Indiana will be undervalued to begin the season. Indiana has a solid program and system in place that makes it easier to plug and play new guys on the team.

    Why To Bet The Pacers: The team lost Lance Stephenson to free agency, and Paul George suffered a gruesome leg injury over the summer while playing for Team USA. That leaves Indiana minus their best two players on both ends of the court. The Pacers only scored 96.7 points per game last season, and with 36.2 points per game now missing, Indiana will have a terrible offense this season.

    Season Win Total Pick: Under 33.5 Wins


    Milwaukee Bucks (2013-14: 15-67 SU, 36-45-1 ATS)

    Odds To Win Division: +19500
    Season Win Total: 24.5

    Why Bet The Bucks: Milwaukee finished with the worst record in the NBA last season, so there’s nowhere to go but up. The Bucks have a new head coach in Jason Kidd, and they nabbed Jabari Parker in the draft. There’s promising young talent on the Milwaukee roster, and if Kidd can mold them together, the Bucks could be a tough out this season.

    Why Not To Bet The Bucks: The team has solid building blocks in place, but they are still years away from competing for a playoff spot. Youth doesn’t win in the NBA, and since Milwaukee is one of the youngest teams in the league, they don’t project to have much success right away.

    Season Win Total Pick: Under 24.5 Wins

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    • #3
      Earnhardt out to end decade-long 'Dega drougt

      There was a time Dale Earnhardt Jr. dominated Talladega Superspeedway in such a way that only one word could describe him: Untouchable.

      From 2001-04, Earnhardt rattled off a track-record four consecutive victories, followed by two straight runner-up finishes and a fifth checkered flag. But that run 10-plus years ago seems like decades to No. 88.

      A decade has passed since Earnhardt's last win at 'Dega (Oct. 3, 2004). Still, his five visits to Victory Lane rank third on the track's all-time list.

      Currently sitting at 12th in the standings -- 26 points behind his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kasey Kahne for the final Eliminator Round spot -- Earnhardt will need to rekindle some of his old Talladega magic in Sunday’'s GEICO 500 cutoff race (2 p.m. ET, ESPN).

      Barring epic collapses from at least four drivers in front of him -- a distinct possibility at the 2.66-mile restrictor plate track known for its treachery -- he must win Sunday to move onward in the Chase.

      Earnhardt is fully aware of his mission at Talladega.

      "Go out there and win it," he said. "We can do it; we have won there a lot of times. I know what we need to do. We will just have to build a fast car and hope that we don't have any gremlins and try to go out there and win it."

      NASCAR's 11-time most popular driver has still performed well throughout his 19-race 'Dega drought. He has recorded a respectable six top-10 finishes, including two runner-ups, the most recent in last fall's Talladega tussle. Earnhardt also boasts the third-highest driver rating (90.3) at the Alabama track over that stretch.

      A rejuvenated Junior has proven anything can happen this year. His three victories so far in the 2014 campaign outnumber his win total from the last seven seasons combined.

      "The season isn't over," Earnhardt posted on Twitter after Charlotte. "We will take a rocket to Dega and fight till the end. 110% till the checkered at Homestead."

      Crafton won't talk championship

      Equipped with a commanding 19-point lead over his ThorSport teammate Johnny Sauter with five races left in the season, Matt Crafton seems well on his way to becoming the first repeat champion in the 20-year history of the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series.

      Despite his lead and momentum from a trio of consecutive top-three finishes, the 38-year-old does not want to set his sights on his second driver points championship just yet.

      "I'm looking forward to the next thing we're going to do at Talladega. We get through that and then I’ll start looking (towards Homestead)," Crafton said. "I'm not even going to worry about it to be honest. I'm going to go into each and every race to just go to win. If we get through Talladega, I'll feel a lot better at that point."

      Crafton has struggled at Talladega throughout his career.

      In eight starts at the 2.66-mile track, he claims an average finish of 15.5, almost four places lower than his career mark of 11.8. The driver most likely to catch him, Sauter, boasts a 7.0 average finish at Talladega and took the checkered flag in last year's race there.

      "I'm not even a little bit worried about 19 points," Crafton said. "It could be one point. I could be 19 points back. I'm not even worried about that to be totally honest. I'm worried about just going each and every week, do what we keep doing, do what we started doing at the beginning of the year, go there to win races and the points will come."

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