BCS Championship Game Trends/Results

[Kaptain]

Some good reading for all the TREND players........


BCS Championship Trends
January 3, 2014
By VI News
VegasInsider.com
New Sportsbook.com customers: Make your 1st bet, get your 2nd bet free, 100%, winnings paid in cash.
Join Now

Already have an account? Click here to view new Exclusive Rewards!

Share


The 2013-14 BCS Championship between Florida State and Auburn will be the 16th and final installment of this series. The title game will be replaced by the College Football Playoff in 2014, which will consist of four schools.

Overall BCS Championships Trends (1999-2013)

-- Favorites have gone 8-7 both straight up and against the spread

-- Favorites have gone 5-1 both SU and ATS the last six seasons

-- The point-spread has never mattered in the 15 title games. All favorites who won also covered the spread

-- Eleven of the 15 matchups have been decided by double digits

-- The largest margin of victory occurred in 2005 when USC defeated Oklahoma by 36 points (55-19)

-- The biggest upset in the BCS Championship Ohio State in 2003, who defeated Miami, Fl. 31-24 as a 12-point underdog

-- The SEC has won the past seven BCS Championships

BCS Championship Total Trends

-- The ‘over’ has gone 8-7 in the 15 championships

-- The ‘under’ is on a 3-2 (60%) run the past six title games

-- There have been three totals listed at 68 points or higher in the title game. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in those game and could’ve went 3-0 if Longhorns quarterback Vince Young didn’t rally Texas past USC 41-38 in the 2006 title game. The 79 combined points in this game is the most all-time in the BCS title game

-- The lowest combined points scored in a title game were 15 when Oklahoma defeated Florida State 13-2

BCS Championships Trends – Games Played in Pasadena

-- This will be the fourth title game played at the Rose Bowl from Pasadena, CA

-- Favorites have gone 2-1 both SU and ATS and the ‘over’ is 2-1


BCS Championship - Pasadena
Year Matchup Line Score ATS Result
2010 Alabama vs. Texas Alabama -3.5 (44.5) Alabama 37 Texas 21 Favorite-Over
2006 Texas vs. USC USC -7 (69) Texas 41 USC 38 Underdog-Over
2002 Miami, Fl. vs. Nebraska Miami, Fl. -8.5 (54) Miami, Fl. 37 Nebraska 14 Favorite-Under



School History in BCS

-- Florida State is 1-2 in the BCS Championship

-- The Seminoles played in the first three title games, the last instance coming in 2001

-- FSU was favored in all three of those championships

-- Auburn is 1-0 in the BCS Championship

-- The Tigers defeated the Ducks 22-19 as one-point underdogs in the 2011 title game

Conference History in BCS

-- The SEC has gone 9-1 in the BCS Championship

-- The lone loss came in 2012 when the title game had two schools from SEC in the title game -- Alabama defeated LSU 21-0

-- The ACC has gone 1-2 in the BCS Championship – FSU represented the conference all three times

BCS Championship History


BCS Championship History (1999-2013)
Year Matchup Line Score ATS Result
2013 Alabama vs. Notre Dame Alabama -9.5 (40.5) Alabama 42 Notre Dame 14 Favorite-Over
2012 Alabama vs. LSU Alabama -2.5 (41) Alabama 21 LSU 0 Favorite-Under
2011 Auburn vs. Oregon Oregon -1 (73) Auburn 22 Oregon 19 Underdog-Under
2010 Alabama vs. Texas Alabama -3.5 (44.5) Alabama 37 Texas 21 Favorite-Over
2009 Florida vs. Oklahoma Florida -5.5 (69) Florida 24 Oklahoma 14 Favorite-Under
2008 LSU vs. Ohio State LSU -4 (46) LSU 38 Ohio State 24 Favorite-Over
2007 Florida vs. Ohio State Ohio State -7 (47) Florida 41 Ohio State 14 Underdog-Over
2006 Texas vs. USC USC -7 (69) Texas 41 USC 38 Underdog-Over
2005 Oklahoma vs. USC USC -3 (54) USC 55 Oklahoma 19 Favorite-Over
2004 LSU vs. Oklahoma Oklahoma -6 (47) LSU 21 Oklahoma 14 Underdog-Under
2003 Miami, Fl. vs. Ohio State Miami, Fl. -12 (48) Ohio St. 31 Miami, Fl. 24 (2OT) Underdog-Over
2002 Miami, Fl. vs. Nebraska Miami, Fl. -8.5 (54) Miami, Fl. 37 Nebraska 14 Favorite-Under
2001 FSU vs. Oklahoma Florida State -11.5 (56) Oklahoma 13 FSU 2 Underdog-Under
2000 FSU vs. Virginia Tech Florida State -6 (49) FSU 46 Virginia Tech 29 Favorite-Over
1999 FSU vs. Tennessee Florida State -5.5 (41.5) Tennessee 23 FSU 16 Underdog-Under





No virus found in this message.
Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
Version: 2014.0.4259 / Virus Database: 3658/6978 - Release Date: 01/05/14

[garth]

I think the most telling trend from Kaptain's comprehensive post is the following:

"The point-spread has never mattered in the 15 title games. All favorites who won also covered the spread"

So, basically, one just picks who they think will win. A teaser on this game would seem pointless, if one puts any stock at all in trends like this. Of course, trends can always be broken, but that's a strong trend....point-spread has NEVER mattered.

[kbsooner21]

I don't think the point spread has mattered in most of the bowl games. Be interesting to see the numbers on this year's bowls.

[garth]

I don't think the point spread has mattered in most of the bowl games. Be interesting to see the numbers on this year's bowls.

I think you're right. if you like Auburn, seems like a moneyline bet to accompany your ATS bet would be in order. I like FSU, but just saying...

[kbsooner21]

I think you're right. if you like Auburn, seems like a moneyline bet to accompany your ATS bet would be in order. I like FSU, but just saying...

Yep, agreed on all accounts

[savage1]

Has anyone seen a better championship game in any sport than that?

[weston555]

Has anyone seen a better championship game in any sport than that?

Actually I thought the UT/USC was better...being that Texas looked like they didnt stand much of a chance up until late AND the fact that Vince Young scored on a 4th down with a long run..and the big names in that game (Bush, Leinart, Young)..and two of the biggest powerhouses (neither has lived up to that as of late!). Point taken though, that was a hell of a game. Felt like Auburn should have won it but FSU looked like the best team in the country all season. Really hate to see games decided by penalties...FSU still had another shot at it even if the guy didn't make that pass interference but that penalty sure as hell didnt help them thats for sure. He may have been beat and given up the TD without making that penalty anyway, I dunno. Tre Mason is awesome, he killed it...I just knew once he scored that last td that FSU had too much time left to not score again.

[weston555]

...and Nick Marshall sucked. He isn't supposed to be the best passer in the country but he looked very nervous during that game. Surprised he only threw one pick

[savage1]

Actually I thought the UT/USC was better...being that Texas looked like they didnt stand much of a chance up until late AND the fact that Vince Young scored on a 4th down with a long run..and the big names in that game (Bush, Leinart, Young)..and two of the biggest powerhouses (neither has lived up to that as of late!). Point taken though, that was a hell of a game. Felt like Auburn should have won it but FSU looked like the best team in the country all season. Really hate to see games decided by penalties...FSU still had another shot at it even if the guy didn't make that pass interference but that penalty sure as hell didnt help them thats for sure. He may have been beat and given up the TD without making that penalty anyway, I dunno. Tre Mason is awesome, he killed it...I just knew once he scored that last td that FSU had too much time left to not score again.

I can't argue with you-thanks for reminding me of that fantastic game.
I know its easy to say after the game is over, but come on, an 11 1/2 point spread in some circles with a long layoff against a team which defeated Alabama, luck or no luck.
For me the right line on this game is 7 tops.

[weston555]

I know. I took Auburn +10.5. I had no idea the line was going to get that big but that extra half point off that key number had me loving Auburn. The thing that scared me though was the obvious....FSU blew EVERY team out of the water with the closest game being 14 points..next closest was 30! And their defensive numbers were crazy good too. I chose Auburn just because they were from the SEC and battle-tested. Screwed up by betting in-game and pounding Auburn to win straight up so I barely came out on top moneywise.

[savage1]

I know. I took Auburn +10.5. I had no idea the line was going to get that big but that extra half point off that key number had me loving Auburn. The thing that scared me though was the obvious....FSU blew EVERY team out of the water with the closest game being 14 points..next closest was 30! And their defensive numbers were crazy good too. I chose Auburn just because they were from the SEC and battle-tested. Screwed up by betting in-game and pounding Auburn to win straight up so I barely came out on top moneywise.

I agree with you on all counts.
I bet Auburn small-my much larger bet was on the under which was never in doubt-the final score is a bit misleading as the last score came with very little time left.
As we have seen of late, these big spreads and totals just don't hold up.

[weston555]

Indeed. I haven't decided on my NFL bets for the weekend but one I am probably sure gonna take is the Niners/Panthers under at 42.5. These teams played a game against one another and scored 19 total. They combine to give up 32 points a game on defense. Being a rematch in the playoffs of two teams that played each other to a low score before, I expect much of the same..or at least not an extra 24 points. Even Green Bay held San Fran to 23 last week. 42 itself is 6 touchdowns...I see some good redzone defense!

[garth]

Dang, I went to bed about 5 minutes into the 3d quarter...been sick...I was frankly confused when I got up this am and saw that FSU had won. for the time I watched the game I thought the tiggers from bama were dominating on both sides of the ball. I thought, wow, how did that happen? sounds like a helluva game broke out after I gave up on it.

[wayne1218]

Mason lost that game for auburn. I'm sure most wont agree but he fucked up and cost them a title. If he pulled a shady McCoy move at the end, they control the clock and at worse tie but most likely win the game. He should have taken a knee at the 1 instead of running it in with 1:20 left. They were down 3 and FSU only had one T.O. left. You force them to use it and you have 2 runs to get a yard. If not it is an extra point fg for overtime. FSU never gets the ball back and auburn celebrates another title. At that point of the game FSU had already scored 2 TDs in the 4th and you knew auburn wasn't going to stop them.

Jameis, send mr mason a nice bottle of champagne and thank him for that cuz he gave you the chance you needed!!!

Jameis

[weston555]

The guy had 195 yards. He carried the ball 34 times and averaged 5.8 YPC with a QB that didn't have the defense concerned with the pass whatsoever. Did he even fumble??? He accounted for well over 50% of Auburn's offense and had 2TD's...and to say he should have fell down and not taken the lead in that situation is absurd Wayne. That yard to get into the endzone wouldn't have been guaranteed. Even the 1 yard FG wouldn't have been 100% either. Botched snaps, fumbles, blocked kicks, all that could have happened. With that said, you can't just assume that FSU was going to score on their drive either. And the fact that they had to get a TOUCHDOWN, not a FG, with 1:20 left...the odds were definitely on Auburn's side. As good as FSU was in the second half, they were 2-12 on 3rd downs in the game and it took a huge pass play that the Auburn defender just screwed up on to get FSU within striking distance on that last drive. They also had the help of a penalty on the 3rd and goal. You also have to realize FSU had possibly the best defense in the nation...and with Nick Marshall looking like he could throw a pick at any moment, why would you want to take a chance of him throwing one in the redzone or in overtime? I had my money on Auburn and I am not anywhere near saying Tre Mason lost the game.